₦airaland Forum

While conducting in-depth research and due diligence on the anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO, I came across a short YouTube video on NVIDIA. That led me down a rabbit hole, prompting me to ask AI for examples of once-dominant companies that eventually failed.
What many investors still don’t fully appreciate is just how strategically intelligent Aliko Dangote is. He designed the refinery with a clear long-term vision, even if petroleum, aviation fuel, and diesel are eventually displaced by alternative energy sources, the facility can seamlessly transition into a pure petrochemicals powerhouse, producing fertilizers, polyethylene derivatives for plastics, paints, and other high-demand industrial products.
This underlying masterstroke is something very few people are talking about yet.

QuinQ:
I commend you if you truly wrote it and I apologize. Only that I've previously seen those same words on other write-ups by people who make money from content.

I wrote this below myself:

LESSONS FROM BLACKBERRY, KODAK, ETC
If you refuse to disrupt yourself, someone else eventually will.
This is why:
• businesses must evolve before they’re forced to
• convenience beats tradition
• customer behavior changes faster than corporations
• protecting old revenue can destroy future growth
• industries collapse slowly… then suddenly
• comfort is dangerous in fast-moving markets

The biggest risk in business
is believing your current dominance guarantees future relevance.

Success creates emotional attachment.
And emotional attachment creates blind spots.

The systems that made you successful yesterday
can quietly become the systems holding you back tomorrow.

Because markets reward adaptation…
not nostalgia.

And history is filled with companies
that invented the future…
then watched someone else profit from it.

True, but easier said than done? Spare me the lazy cliché. Hindsight is 20/20 for people who sit on the sidelines offering nothing but recycled skepticism. Some companies crashed while trying to adapt, yes, and many more died slowly because they clung to what they knew best while the world moved on.

And let's address the real insult here, questioning my source and smugly declaring "we know you didn't write this." That's not critique, that's intellectual laziness dressed up as wisdom. I wrote every single word of that article myself. Writing isn't a hobby for me, it's my passion. I don't churn out AI slop or copy-paste from Google. I bleed on the page so that one single person who needs it might feel seen, challenged, or inspired. Not for clout-chasers looking for "frontpage worthy" crumbs.
If you can't engage with the ideas without throwing weak doubt at the author's integrity, that's on you. Next time, try wrestling with the substance instead of projecting your own shortcuts onto others.

QuinQ:
Applies to life in general.
True, but easier said than done. Hindsight is always 20/20. There are also companies who tried to embrace change or disruption quickly instead of sticking to what they know best, and went down!

Frontpage worthy. Seun, Nlfpmod
But OP what is your source? We know you didn't write this

Why is the World Bank targeting Nigeria's Dangote Refinery.


https://youtube.com/shorts/FYg4RMAtt-g?si=znGuyGY2Yqtj4hdL

A Timeless Lesson from Fallen Giants: Why Success Breeds Complacency

In 1975, a 24-year-old Kodak engineer named Steve Sasson invented the world’s first digital camera, a bulky prototype that captured 0.01-megapixel black-and-white images stored on cassette tape. Kodak executives, raking in billions from film sales, told him to shelve it. They believed consumers would never abandon physical photos.

By 1996, Kodak was a $31 billion colossus with 140,000 employees. Yet competitors embraced digital photography. Film sales collapsed by up to 75% by 2004. The 2007 iPhone accelerated the shift to smartphone cameras. In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy, destroyed by the very technology it had pioneered.

Nokia: The Hardware King Who Missed Software
At its peak in the early 2000s, Nokia dominated the global mobile phone market with nearly 50% smartphone share in 2007. Renowned for durable devices like the 3310, the company clung to its Symbian operating system and hardware expertise. It underestimated the importance of intuitive software, touchscreens, and app ecosystems.

When Apple launched the iPhone in 2007 and Android gained traction, Nokia’s bureaucracy, internal rivalries, and risk-averse culture slowed its response. Market share plummeted. Nokia eventually sold its mobile business to Microsoft. Once a symbol of Finnish innovation and global dominance, it became a cautionary tale of failing to adapt to platform-based competition.

BlackBerry: Secure Email Pioneer Ignored Consumer Desires
BlackBerry (then Research In Motion) revolutionized mobile communication with secure email and physical keyboards. At its height, it held nearly 50% of the U.S. smartphone market and was the device of choice for executives and governments.

Leaders dismissed the iPhone as a toy, believing professionals preferred keyboards and security over apps and touchscreens. They reacted slowly, releasing flawed devices like the BlackBerry Storm. By focusing narrowly on enterprise customers and failing to build a vibrant app ecosystem, BlackBerry watched iOS and Android capture the mass market. Its smartphone business effectively collapsed, and the company pivoted to software and cybersecurity.

The Winners: Apple, Netflix, and Nvidia
While some giants fell, others rose by embracing disruption:

Apple transformed the phone into a pocket computer with the iPhone, prioritizing user experience, design, and an ecosystem of apps and services. It captured the imagination of consumers beyond business users.

Netflix started as a DVD-by-mail service but relentlessly pivoted to streaming, investing heavily in original content and personalization. It disrupted Blockbuster (which once dominated video rentals) by eliminating late fees and physical stores.

Nvidia, once known primarily for gaming GPUs, bet early and aggressively on artificial intelligence and parallel computing. Under CEO Jensen Huang, it positioned its chips as essential for the AI revolution. The result: one of the fastest ascents in corporate history, becoming the first company to reach multi-trillion-dollar market caps (peaking near or above $5 trillion in recent periods) through explosive demand for its data center GPUs.

What Self-Investors Who Sabotage Their Own Portfolios Must Learn

Individual investors frequently repeat the exact mistakes of Kodak, Nokia, and BlackBerry:

Clinging to yesterday’s winners: You hold onto a once-great stock or sector (e.g., legacy retail, traditional energy, or yesterday’s tech leaders) long after fundamentals shift, just as these companies protected their old cash cows.

Dismissing disruption: “AI is hype,” “Streaming won’t replace cable,” or “Touchscreens are a fad”, sound familiar? Investors often ignore new realities that threaten familiar holdings.

Ego protection over capital protection: Admitting a thesis is wrong feels painful, so investors double down, avoid rebalancing, or stay in cash during paradigm shifts.

Overconfidence after success: Big portfolio wins create the illusion of permanent skill, leading to reduced vigilance, exactly when danger is highest.

Actionable Lessons for Self-Investors:

1. Kill your darlings regularly.
Use the “Would I buy this today?” test on every major holding. If the answer is no, have a plan to exit.

2. Schedule disruption audits.
Quarterly, review emerging technologies, competitors, and macroeconomic shifts. Study companies like Nvidia and Netflix that successfully pivoted.

3. Diversify narratives, not just assets. Actively seek opposing views. Comfortable echo chambers destroy portfolios.

4. Embrace creative destruction.
The market constantly rewards adaptation. Apple and Nvidia succeeded by betting on the future; Kodak, Nokia, and BlackBerry defended the past.

5. Guard against your own success.
After strong returns, force yourself to stress-test assumptions most aggressively. Complacency is the silent portfolio killer.

Final Takeaway
The most dangerous moment for any investor, or company, is when everything is going exceptionally well. Kodak, Nokia, and BlackBerry weren’t destroyed by stupidity, they were destroyed by comfort.

Stay curious, stay humble, and stay willing to evolve. Master this, and you’ll avoid becoming the Kodak (or Nokia, or BlackBerry) of your own investment journey, while positioning yourself to capture the next Apple, Netflix, or Nvidia.


NB:
This is an original article written by me, with modifications and refinements made with the assistance of an AI.

You don’t need to rush.
Take time to understand the “Tortoise Investor” mindset, this is exactly what you’re signing up for when you invest in any of Tony Elumelu’s listed companies.
Tony has a proven track record of building lasting value. With patience and consistency, you can realistically double your Transcorp Plc holdings in about 3 years and Transcorp Power in around 4 years.

jonnysessy:
javascript:void(0);
When will my own opinion on stock matter in NSEMPA count too. This one that members of the thread are capable of dragging down share prices by their simple comments. Please [s]guys with their crystal balls should help me look into it and move Transcorp Power up for me to make a kill[/s]

Many investors are still trapped in analysis paralysis, one of the most common reasons retail investors miss out on major opportunities.

The NGX of today is very different from the NGX of 2010. The market has evolved significantly in depth, regulation, and participation.

The Dangote Refinery is not just another Nigerian project. It is fast becoming a strategic West African asset with strong regional export potential. While the offer may be oversubscribed, that speaks more to its perceived long-term value than to short-term hype.

Yes, it is possible the stock could trade at a discount to its listing price initially. We’ve seen this before, Transcorp Power (Transpower), for example, is currently trading around ₦245 after consistently closing near ₦270.
I subscribed during the initial offer and am now building gradually towards 100,000 units with an average cost of ₦248.

Trying to perfectly time the market through endless analysis is often the fastest route to ROMO(Regret of Missing Out).
Once listed, the Dangote Refinery share price will be driven by market forces. Some investors will trade it actively, others will sell out of impatience, while some will liquidate due to unforeseen personal needs.
As for me, I’m buying this for the future of my children. I’ve kept dry powder in a money market account and will soon rebalance my portfolio to increase my position. If the price dips significantly after listing, I’m fully prepared to average down.

NCR Nigeria Plc: The Strategic Pivot to Electronic Security Systems – A Path to Market Leadership

In an era marked by persistent daily insecurity challenges across Nigeria, traditional reliance on manned guarding, often embodied by the "Maiguard" system is increasingly proving inadequate and risky.
Reports of incidents involving guards with questionable backgrounds, including potential infiltration or disguise by members linked to Boko Haram, ISWAP, bandits, Fulani terrorists, kidnappers, and criminal herdsmen elements, highlight the urgent need for a more reliable, technology-driven approach to safety.
As the country grapples with these multifaceted threats, NCR (Nigeria) Plc stands uniquely positioned to lead a transformative shift into the electronic security systems sector.

NCR’s Strong Foundation for Diversification

NCR Nigeria Plc, a long-established player on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and a subsidiary of the global NCR Voyix Corporation, has built its reputation on delivering technology solutions that enable businesses to connect, interact, and transact. Its core offerings include Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), Point of Sale (POS) systems, self-service kiosks, and comprehensive maintenance and support services, primarily serving the financial services, retail, hospitality, and other sectors.

The company boasts an extensive national service network with warehouses in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, along with deep expertise in installation, implementation, and recurring revenue-generating maintenance contracts. This infrastructure and skill set provide a natural competitive advantage over fragmented security dealers and marketers (SDMs) operating in Nigeria today.

While NCR has historically focused on banking, telecom, and oil & gas clients, aggressive diversification into the electronic security systems market represents a high-growth opportunity.

The Nigeria electronic security and surveillance market, encompassing intrusion/fire alarms, video surveillance (CCTV), access control, biometrics, and integrated monitoring solutions, is expanding rapidly, driven by rising insecurity, urbanization, and demand from both residential and commercial customers.

The Opportunity: Modeling Global Leaders

NCR should draw inspiration from proven international business models:

ADT (US): The gold standard in professional monitored security, emphasizing large-scale installation, 24/7 central monitoring stations, and recurring monthly revenue (RMR) from monitoring contracts.

SimpliSafe (UK/US): A customer-friendly, DIY-friendly yet professionally supported model that combines ease of installation with scalable monitoring, appealing to a broad residential market.

Verisure: Strong focus on rapid response, smart integration, and European-style professional services with high customer retention.

By adopting hybrid models, combining professional installation and monitoring with smart, app-based controls NCR can capture both premium commercial contracts and the growing middle-class residential segment.

Recommended Strategy:
Launch pilot projects in high-priority states: Lagos, Rivers, and Abuja (FCT), where commercial density, affluence, and security needs are highest.

Offer end-to-end solutions: Selling, installing, servicing, and centrally monitoring intrusion alarms, fire detection, CCTV/video surveillance, access control systems, and integrated smart security platforms.

Leverage existing strengths in hardware maintenance and nationwide logistics for cost-efficient rollout and superior service levels compared to current local players.

Strategic Acquisition: Halogen Security

A game-changing move would be the acquisition (or strategic partnership) of Halogen Group Nigeria (formerly Halogen Security Company), Nigeria’s pioneering and leading indigenous private security provider with thousands of personnel and expertise in physical security.

Integrating Halogen’s manned guarding capabilities, client relationships, and on-ground intelligence with NCR’s technology backbone would create a comprehensive “physical + electronic” security powerhouse, offering seamless hybrid solutions while accelerating market penetration.

Unparalleled Prospects

Nigeria’s security landscape is ripe for disruption. With escalating demand for CCTV, alarms, and smart systems, and limited dominant listed players in the electronic segment, NCR as the only NGX-listed company with the scale, technical expertise, and capital access is ideally placed to dominate.

Success could deliver:
- Diversified, stable recurring revenue streams (monitoring contracts).
- Enhanced shareholder value through entry into a high-margin, resilient industry.
- Significant contribution to national security by professionalizing protection and reducing reliance on unregulated guarding (Mauguard system) that is being compromised by criminal elements.

- Job creation in tech installation, monitoring centers, and support services.

Call to Action for NCR Leadership and Stakeholders

The era of solely depending on traditional services to banks, telecoms, and oil companies is evolving. NCR Nigeria Plc has the brand trust, technical foundation, distribution network, and listed status to pioneer professional electronic security services in Nigeria.

By moving decisively, starting with targeted pilots and exploring synergies with established security firms like Halogen, NCR can secure a second-to-none position in this relatively untapped but fast-growing industry. The time for this strategic diversification is now.
Nigeria’s businesses, homeowners, and investors stand to benefit immensely from safer, technology-enabled protection.



Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this article are mine alone and do not necessarily represent the views of NCR plc.
It was written in response to the recent abductions and senseless killings of innocent people in Oyo State. The government’s apparent helplessness in addressing this growing crisis is deeply concerning.
Nevertheless, cutting-edge technology solutions from NCR can provide critical support, through security systems, data analytics, and intelligent infrastructure, to help reverse these disturbing trends.

My View on Illiquidity on the NGX
Generally speaking, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is still evolving, with the banking sector remaining the most liquid.

However, some of the stocks consistently ranked among the 20 most illiquid on the exchange are actually silent compounders with strong long-term potential.
The management teams of these companies often understand their businesses deeply and know when and how to act decisively. If you hold a position in any of them, avoid panic-selling simply because they carry the “illiquid” label.
Time is a great rewarder. Trust your original investment thesis rather than reacting to liquidity rankings. These stocks are indeed illiquid today, but that characteristic alone doesn’t define their future value.
When the management teams decide it’s time to attract and retain serious retail and institutional investors, they know exactly what levers to pull. Actions such as consistent improvement in performance, stronger fundamentals, bonus issues, and attractive dividend payouts have the power to transform these stocks from overlooked names into highly sought-after investments.

I remember you once said Warren Buffett is overrated. In the stock market, you can be 100% wrong and still be proven right by the market, just as you can be 100% right and still be proven wrong.
The best approach is humility paired with strong trust in your own judgment, provided it’s backed by thorough due diligence.

emmanuelewumi:
This is what Warren Buffett said about IPO ( It is Probably Overpriced)

I respect Warren Buffett, but he has been wrong many times over the years, and he has consistently admitted his mistakes with notable candor.
A prominent example came during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stakes in the four major U.S. airlines (Delta, United, American, and Southwest), positions worth more than $4 billion at significant loss. Buffett publicly acknowledged it as a mistake, noting that the pandemic had changed the airline business "in a very major way.
Recent regulatory filings show Berkshire Hathaway has returned to the sector. In the first quarter of 2026, it built a new $2.6 billion premium stake in Delta Air Lines (approximately 39.8 million shares, or about 6.1% ownership), making it one of Berkshire’s larger equity holdings.

NB
I hold over 100 units of Berkshire Hathaway B (BRKB), and it has been the worst-performing stock in my foreign portfolio YTD.
My individually hand-picked pie stocks are up 101%, while BRKB is less than 3%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/warren-buffets-berkshire-makes-major-162121823.html

emmanuelewumi:
The IPO of Dangote Sugar was N18, it actually went down to N6 at a point in time

My contract notes and diary confirm that I bought Dangote Cement in four tranches between April 1st and April 9th, 2020. Some of the shares were purchased at ₦110, ₦115, and ₦116 per unit.
I currently hold 25,863 units in one of my brokerage accounts.
I wish I had your crystal ball 🔮! It’s only recently that the price has gone hyperbolic.

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote Cement was listed by introduction at N135, the share was not available to retail investors until it got to N200. The current price is roughly N1180.

How did your N3 million become N30 million? Abi you did dividend reinvestment ni.

I hold both WAPCO and Dangote Cement.
The modest ₦3 million I invested in Dangote Cement is now worth over ₦30 million.
There was a long period of price suppression, poor liquidity, and outright rejection by retail investors. Many saw it as a dividend stock only, nothing more. It was overlooked and underrated for years.
But everything changed when Femi Otedola highlighted its massive export potential. That revelation opened our eyes. Today, Dangote Cement is finally getting the recognition it deserves. This is its true destination.
Unfortunately, I self-sabotaged my WAPCO position by booking profits too early. A classic case of selling winners too soon.

emmanuelewumi:
You can only get Dangote Cement shares to buy in 2010 at N200 that was when the stock was available

I wrote on the defunct Stockmarketnigeria that it was over priced

If you invested N1 million in 2010, it is not equivalent to N5 million.

Compared to Lafarge Africa that had bonus shares, the N1 million invested will be equivalent to about N12 million

I am very well-positioned in the banking sector, sitting on massive unrealized gains in Zenith Bank, GTCO, AccessCorp, Stanbic IBTC, and UBA Plc.
My only regret is that I did not fully exercise my rights during the various offerings.
This post was simply meant to reinforce one absolute truth: No one has a crystal ball 🔮.
No one could have predicted that the banks would deliver such outstanding performance post recapitalisation.

Similarly, no one in 2010 could have foreseen that Okomu and Presco would be trading between ₦1,500 and ₦2,500 today.

Streetinvestor2:
I am not defending anymore but at that time thr was nothing attractive about bank right issues
I hope is not because of this bull the likes of gtbank and zenith that is making u regret as I did not participate in any rights

As of 2010, Nigeria was largely dependent on imported bulk cement, which local importers typically rebagged and sold. At the time, Dangote Cement had only a nascent presence and virtually no competitive moat.
The dominant, well-established player was Lafarge WAPCO (formerly West African Portland Cement Company), which had long been the industry leader.

Fast forward to today, Dangote Cement has built a formidable moat through scale, vertical integration, and cost leadership. Its export potential across Africa is now being fully realized through aggressive capacity expansion and regional investments. I would not be surprised if the company's valuation or share price reaches 5x current levels by 2030, driven by strong domestic demand, rising intra-African exports, and continued market dominance.

emmanuelewumi:
Presco share price in October 2010 when Dangote Cement was listed

In 2024, I actively searched for public validation to support my narrow, bearish views on bank stocks during and after the rights issue and recapitalisation exercise.

I found exactly the opinions I wanted to hear, trusted them, and ended up missing one of the rarest investment opportunities in the Nigerian market in recent years.

I still remember reading a response from Pa-emmanuelewumi stating that he would not subscribe to the bank rights issues but would rather wait to buy on the floor after the recapitalisation. That single opinion reinforced my already biased mindset, even though I had the dry powder ready at the time.

That decision remains one of the biggest investment regrets of my journey.
The key lesson I want fellow forum members to take away:
Never rely blindly on opinions from public forums, especially faceless ones. People’s views, strategies, and even their own actions can change at any time.

In August 2024, Pa-emmanuelewumi publicly said he would not buy the bank rights issues. By March 2026, he revealed that he eventually did.

Now, with the much-anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO on the horizon, my advice is straightforward:
If you have the means, do your own thorough research, develop your own conviction, and act based on that. Don’t outsource your financial decisions to strangers on the internet.
Do not repeat the same mistake I made in August 2024.


https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/8014#131553829


https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/10235#138765323

Why Technical Analysis Can Ruin a Sustainable Portfolio – Lessons from a Long-Term Investor.

The easiest way to destroy a long-term, sustainable investment portfolio is to rely heavily on technical analysis (TA) for stock picking and market timing. While charts, patterns, and indicators can appear sophisticated, they often create an illusion of control in inherently unpredictable markets in a VUCAD world.
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguous
Disruptive

As the saying goes, “Not all motion is movement.” Markets fluctuate constantly, but these short-term gyrations do not always reflect meaningful progress or sustainable value. True wealth building in stocks comes from understanding businesses, exercising patience, and harnessing the power of consistency and compounding over time.

Early Lessons from Forum “Gurus”
Early in my journey toward building a substantial portfolio, I spent significant time on local investment forums, chasing the next big stock tip. These communities were filled with sharp analysts who could dissect company financials in detail. In uncertain economic periods, their forecasts sometimes worked, fueled by a mix of politics, hype, and speculation.

Many aspiring investors hung on every word from these “gurus,” only to see their portfolios suffer. A striking example occurred in early 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Zenith Bank, a reputable Nigerian lender known for consistent dividends, plunged below ₦12 per share. Analysts armed with various technical tools predicted further declines and “more dark days,” believing they could precisely time the market. Many followers acted on this and locked in losses.

The Shift to Timeless Principles.
My perspective changed dramatically after deep self-education. I studied books by legendary American investors such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Benjamin Graham (many of which are now available as free audiobooks or summaries on YouTube). The key realization "Intelligence does not equal investment success"

Frequent trading benefits brokers through commissions and spreads, while constant market timing often leads to FOMO (fear of missing out) and emotional decisions. The real edge comes from staying the course.

Real NGX Example:

The Power of Fundamentals and Patience
A few months ago, I wrote a letter commending the management of Vitafoam, a Nigerian company producing foam and related products, for their resilience amid challenging operating conditions like inflation, currency volatility, and infrastructure issues. Forum analysts dismissed the optimism, claiming the recent bonus issue had been “priced in” and predicting the stock would drop below ₦90.

As of May 15, 2026, the share price closed at ₦194, more than double the predicted level. This outcome reinforced a vital truth, Mr. Market ultimately rewards business performance over short-term chart predictions. Technical analysts rarely admit errors; they simply move on to the next forecast.

Core Advice for Aspiring Investors in NGX

1. Understand the Business:
Analyze the company’s fundamentals, competitive advantage (moat), management quality, financial health, and long-term growth prospects, rather than relying solely on price charts or indicators.

2. Stay Disciplined and Patient:
Time in the market beats timing the market. Compounding works best when you hold quality companies through volatility.

3. Avoid Short-Term Money:
Never invest funds you will need in the next 3–5 years in equities. Market drawdowns are inevitable, reversal to mean is the rule of the game.

4. Control Emotions:
Fear and greed are the biggest portfolio destroyers. Develop a clear, personal investment thesis and stick to it.

5. Invest in Yourself:
Build knowledge through reputable books, annual reports, and earnings calls. Avoid paying for stock tips, sustainable success rarely comes from following others blindly.

These principles apply universally, whether investing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), NYSE, LSE, or emerging markets in Asia or Africa.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities in Frontier Markets:
Positive structural changes can create generational opportunities. For instance, the recent S&P Global ratings upgrade for Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating (from B- to B) signals improving investor confidence and could attract “hot money” from international portfolios.

Major upcoming IPOs and broader frontier market dynamics are drawing attention from global investors. While challenges like infrastructure gaps, insecurity, and policy execution remain in many emerging economies, focusing exclusively on negative headlines blinds people to gradual progress and undervalued opportunities.

Final Thoughts
Sustainable investing rewards preparation, discipline, consistency and a long-term horizon. Technical analysis has its place as a supplementary tool for entry/exit timing, but it should never be the foundation of your strategy. By focusing on quality businesses, maintaining emotional control, and allowing time to work in your favor, investors in NGX can position themselves for lasting success.

The best opportunities often emerge while others are distracted by noise. Position yourself thoughtfully, the market tends to reward those who do.

The Dangote Refinery IPO and the Real Meaning of Opportunity Cost.
The stage is gradually being set for what could become the biggest IPO listing in the history of the NGX, the anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO.
The positive sentiment surrounding this potential listing cannot be underestimated.

For now, Nigeria’s pension regulator, PENCOM, has already issued a waiver reversing the rule that prevented pension fund managers from investing in companies listed for less than five years on the NGX. That singular move speaks volumes about the magnitude of what may be coming.

As a self-motivated investor and the investment head of my immediate family, I have already begun strategic preparations to raise N100 million ahead of the IPO launch date.
Now, here is the interesting part, I do not need to sell any illiquid asset. What I need is intelligent portfolio rebalancing.
That means some beloved stocks in my portfolio may have to be sacrificed to complement the N15 million already reserved for the offer. This is the true meaning of opportunity cost, giving up something good in pursuit of something potentially greater.
The leverage here is simple: My portfolio itself becomes the source of liquidity.
I do not need to borrow from banks at interest rates of 28% to 33% just to participate in an IPO. Borrowing heavily to invest in a company you neither own nor control can easily become sorrow disguised as leverage.

The major lesson this IPO build-up is teaching me is this:
1. Being asset-rich on paper means nothing if your wealth is locked away when opportunity finally comes knocking.

2. A person can be worth millions on paper and still remain cash-poor when a once-in-a-generation opportunity appears.

The flexibility and command I have over my portfolio can accelerate the velocity needed to generate and deploy N100 million at the right moment.
I honestly cannot envy individuals whose entire net worth is trapped in illiquid assets. Many may eventually be forced to sell at discounts under pressure. That is the classic definition of being “asset rich but cash poor.”

In personal finance and the FIRE movement, wealth velocity is increasingly defined as the speed at which capital moves through your personal economy to create multiple streams of value, instead of remaining stagnant in idle savings or dormant assets.
Like I predicted months ago before being banned on the NSEMPA thread, the Dangote Refinery IPO could trigger a temporary bearish phase across several asset classes, NGX equities, NASD securities, bonds, money markets, savings instruments, and more.

Why?
Because investors understand what is potentially at stake.
This IPO may not only create massive FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), but also long-term regret for those who fail to participate.

This remains strictly my personal opinion and does not constitute financial advice.

Thank you for the kind words. I truly appreciate it. I am also learning daily, and I’m glad the write-ups have been useful to some readers on the NSEMPA thread.

Let me briefly respond to your questions.

1. On the anticipated frontier market transition and the coming elections.

There are fears one cannot fully control in the market:
• government policies,
• inflation,
• deflation,
• tax policies,
• interest rates,
• FX dynamics,
• and other macroeconomic variables.

These factors can dictate market direction temporarily.

As an investor, your duty is not to predict every macro event perfectly. Your responsibility is to invest in fundamentally moated companies and allow time and compounding to do the heavy lifting.

An increasingly efficient NGX may even render the anticipated pre-election downturn partially invalid because information may already be priced in faster than many expect.

What matters most is always having dry powder for “MAY DAY”, those moments when portfolios are bleeding and fear dominates the market.

Historically, those painful periods often create the greatest long-term opportunities.

2. Will people exit the market because of election fears?

The weak hands always do.

Fear, greed, rumors, speculation, and uncertainty are some of the core emotional forces that transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.

During uncertain periods:
• some investors panic,
• some dump quality assets,
• some move to fixed income,
• while disciplined investors quietly accumulate and stay the course.

That cycle has repeated itself across generations of financial markets.


3. About VFDGROUP PLC.
Personally, I think VFD has successfully shaken off many weak hands. Those guys appear very strategic and very clever.

However, I have also observed certain yellow flags in their modus operandi.

Following the listing of VFD on the NGX, there was a period of illiquidity. That phase was later followed by massive insider dealings. Shortly after, a bonus issue was announced. Within less than 12 months, another bonus issue emerged.

As the share price approached around N20, there appeared to be significant insider dumping, pushing the stock down toward sub-N13 levels. Before investors could fully digest the development, a rights issue was announced.
Your guess is as good as mine.

One possible interpretation is that insiders may have used prior knowledge of the rights issue qualification date to offload shares at elevated prices before re-entering through the rights issue at a discount.

That said, these are observations investors should critically evaluate themselves.

For beginners especially, understanding:
• insider behavior,
• liquidity patterns,
• capital raises,
• dilution

Hot money appears to be positioning ahead of the structural transformation of the NGX.

Settlement cycle improvements like T+1 could further accelerate institutional participation and market efficiency.

And if that transition deepens, the premium board may likely become one of the first destinations of institutional and foreign capital flows.

As for recommending stocks, that is honestly not my area of competence.

I am not a stock picker.
I simply try to invest in fundamentally sound companies and allow time, patience, and compounding to work.

Mumben:
Good pm, I remember ur write-ups from d nsempa thread and I really appreciate u for always sharing ideas that will help whoever is interested. My questions are numerous. Hope u will find time to answer.
1)Considering the fact that election is fast approaching, do u think d September frontier listing of d ngx can affect d market positively?
Do u think people will exit the market because of election fears thereby causing dip?
2) pls analyse vfd for me as a complete novice. The price is stagnant but I have this feeling that it's a good stock
3)if u are to advice a beginner, what 5_10 fundamentally strong and not so expensive stocks would you recommend?

When the NGX eventually becomes more efficient, the experience for retail investors could change significantly, both positively and negatively.

In a more efficient market, finding “cheap” or undervalued stocks may become increasingly difficult because information would be reflected in prices much faster. Financial reports, news releases, and corporate developments could be priced into stocks almost immediately, while institutional investors and algorithm-driven systems react faster than the average retail investor. As a result, consistently beating the market using publicly available information may become far more challenging.

An efficient NGX may also gradually reduce speculation and emotionally driven trading. Stocks driven mainly by rumors, hype, insider whispers, delayed information, or social media sentiment may become less common opportunities as price discovery becomes sharper and faster. This could make the market more disciplined, but less forgiving for impulsive traders.

Institutional investors such as foreign funds, pension funds, sovereign hedge funds, and quantitative firms may increasingly dominate market activity. Retail investors relying mainly on WhatsApp tips, Nairaland discussions, Telegram groups, or delayed analysis may struggle to compete consistently against professional research-driven institutions.

On the positive side, greater efficiency could reduce volatility in quality companies. As liquidity deepens, bid-ask spreads may narrow, market manipulation could reduce, and overall market depth may improve. Blue-chip companies such as Dangote Cement, Guaranty Trust Holding Company, Zenith Bank, and MTN Nigeria and others may begin to behave more like mature global equities, which is generally beneficial for long-term wealth creation.

In such an environment, consistency may become more valuable than brilliance. Investing may shift away from searching for hidden gems toward disciplined accumulation, proper asset allocation, risk management, patience, and long-term compounding. The real edge may move from intelligence to behavior.

This is where ETFs could become increasingly important for retail investors. Consistently buying diversified ETFs may become one of the smartest ways to navigate a more efficient NGX. Instead of trying to predict which stock will outperform, investors simply participate in overall economic growth, dividend growth, market expansion, and long-term compounding. Some investors are already investing in ETFs

ETFs also help reduce emotional stress by limiting panic buying, fear-driven selling, overconfidence, and obsession with daily market movements. In addition, diversification helps reduce concentration risk, especially for investors heavily exposed to a single bank or sector. Such as the recent sell-offs in AccessCorp and UBA, which may similarly play out in Fidelity this week.

Under the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), passive investing through ETFs becomes increasingly rational because if markets already reflect available information, then frequent trading may add little value. This explains why ETFs became dominant in markets such as the NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE and JSE.

However, ETFs are not magic. They can still decline during bear markets, returns may sometimes appear slow or “boring,” and they are unlikely to create overnight millionaires. Patience remains essential. Nevertheless, over long periods, disciplined ETF accumulation has historically outperformed many active traders globally.

If the NGX truly evolves into a more efficient frontier market after 2026, the retail investor most likely to succeed may not be the loudest trader, the most aggressive speculator and promoter, or the person chasing every hot stock. Instead, it may be the disciplined investor, the regular ETF accumulator, the patient dividend reinvestor, and the investor who understands the power of compounding.

In that future environment, consistency could become more valuable than prediction.

This article is my original work.

NB: I've been banned from the NSEMPA thread. Feel free to ask any questions here.

The Future of the NGX and Why Consistency Will Soon Beat Brilliance

When the Nigerian Exchange eventually becomes more efficient, the experience for retail investors could change significantly, both positively and negatively.

In a more efficient market, finding “cheap” or undervalued stocks may become increasingly difficult because information would be reflected in prices much faster. Financial reports, news releases, and corporate developments could be priced into stocks almost immediately, while institutional investors and algorithm-driven systems react faster than the average retail investor. As a result, consistently beating the market using publicly available information may become far more challenging.

An efficient NGX may also gradually reduce speculation and emotionally driven trading. Stocks driven mainly by rumors, hype, promoters, insider whispers, delayed information, or social media sentiment may become less common opportunities as price discovery becomes sharper and faster. This could make the market more disciplined, but less forgiving for impulsive traders.

Institutional investors such as foreign funds, pension funds, hedge funds, and quantitative firms may increasingly dominate market activity. Retail investors relying mainly on WhatsApp tips, Nairaland discussions, Telegram groups, or delayed analysis may struggle to compete consistently against professional research-driven institutions.

On the positive side, greater efficiency could reduce volatility in quality companies. As liquidity deepens, bid-ask spreads may narrow, market manipulation could reduce, and overall market depth may improve. Blue-chip companies such as Dangote Cement, Guaranty Trust Holding Company, Zenith Bank, and MTN Nigeria and others may begin to behave more like mature global equities, which is generally beneficial for long-term wealth creation.

In such an environment, consistency may become more valuable than brilliance. Investing may shift away from searching for hidden gems toward disciplined accumulation, proper asset allocation, risk management, patience, and long-term compounding. The real edge may move from intelligence to behavior.

This is where ETFs could become increasingly important for retail investors. Consistently buying diversified ETFs may become one of the smartest ways to navigate a more efficient NGX. Instead of trying to predict which stock will outperform, investors simply participate in overall economic growth, dividend growth, market expansion, and long-term compounding. Some investors are already investing in ETFs.

ETFs also help reduce emotional stress by limiting panic buying, fear-driven selling, overconfidence, and obsession with daily market movements. In addition, diversification helps reduce concentration risk, especially for investors heavily exposed to a single bank or sector. Such as the recent sell-offs in AccessCorp and UBA, which may similarly play out in Fidelity this week.

Under the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), passive investing through ETFs becomes increasingly rational because if markets already reflect available information, then frequent trading may add little value. This explains why ETFs became dominant in markets such as the NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, JSE and others.

However, ETFs are not magic. They can still decline during bear markets, returns may sometimes appear slow or “boring,” and they are unlikely to create overnight millionaires. Patience remains essential. Nevertheless, over long periods, disciplined ETF accumulation has historically outperformed many active traders globally.

If the NGX truly evolves into a more efficient frontier market after 2026, the retail investor most likely to succeed may not be the loudest trader, the most aggressive speculator and promoter, or the person chasing every hot stock. Instead, it may be the disciplined investor, the regular ETF accumulator, the patient dividend reinvestor, and the investor who understands the power of compounding.

In that future environment, consistency could become more valuable than prediction.

This is an original article written by me and refined with the assistance of AI.

NB: I've been banned from the NSEMPA thread, so feel free to ask any questions here. I won’t be returning to that toxic thread.

When the NGX Becomes Efficient.

An efficient market is a financial market where prices fully and rapidly reflect all available information.
It appears the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) may gradually be heading in that direction.
In an efficient market, it becomes increasingly difficult to consistently identify undervalued or overvalued assets using publicly known data. The edge then shifts from mere information gathering to discipline, patience, timing, and consistency.

Both Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) begin to lose part of their traditional advantage in a highly efficient market environment.

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains this through its three major forms:
• Weak Form EMH
This suggests that technical analysis cannot consistently outperform the market because prices already reflect all past trading data, including charts, price movements, and trends.

• Semi-Strong Form EMH
This states that prices already reflect all publicly available information such as financial reports, economic data, corporate announcements, and news releases. Under this condition, fundamental analysis alone cannot consistently deliver superior returns.

• Strong Form EMH
This goes even further by proposing that prices reflect all information, including insider or private information. In such a market, no investor can consistently earn abnormal returns over time.

The big question therefore is: Is the NGX gradually moving toward market efficiency?
The possible turning point may begin around September 2026, when the anticipated frontier market status could fully take effect, potentially increasing foreign participation, liquidity, institutional activity, research coverage, and information dissemination across the market.
If that happens, the NGX of tomorrow may become very different from the NGX many investors have historically known.

IKEJAHOTEL
interim dividend 3kobo
Final Dividends 30k

Stockhunter:
This Ikeja hotel and their kobo kobo dividend. When them go tire for kobo kobo. Even with their interim dividends, at the end of the year the whole thing no go even reach 25 kobo

You are obviously a student of Jim Simons. I believe you know him quite well.
Here are some video links that further describe his philosophy, style, and approach to the market.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weD2tVLaIEQ?si=vD99dTi1BbH0hZZW


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83w1t26wHKU?si=zu1dCZyrlXzpXAO5



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTQcLi6SpX8?si=XZn--bsjaf8wtzV0



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2QB6H1H0Ps?si=wpmUjgETgUh8DLoo

aj8:
I found your write-up interesting and engaging, however, I would like to add something I have applied over the years and found really helpful, in fact, I rate it 10 on a 0 to 10. The application is drawn from my knowledge of Physics and is extremely important in appreciating and quantifying demand and supply imbalance.

1. Demand Volume x price is the force or energy. News can act as a force or energy through the modification of demand

Newton's First Law States, An object at rest remains at rest, or if in motion, remains in motion at a constant velocity unless acted on by a net external force, that an object will not change its motion unless a force acts on it.

An asset in motion/rest, tends to stay in motion/rest unless acted upon by an external force ( news or institutionally significant volume)

For our stock trade purposes, motion could be up trend or down unless at rest

2. Force is required to overcome a resistance.
In Physics, Force =Mass x Acceleration F=ma

In Physics applied to stock trading
Volume is Mass and price is acceleration
Volume x price indicates the Force/energy.

High demand volume with increasing price = high energy or force
High demand volume with a slowing price shows weakening of energy or force
Low demand volume even with a price appreciation is a weak force.

Imbalances are created constantly in demand and supply by the action of these forces.

In low-demand scenarios, supply is higher, price trend is downwards
In high demand, demand is higher, price trend is upwards.

Remember, force is required to sustain an uptrend and overcome supply resistance. Without that force, the trend is simply down except for an act of news provoke increase in demand. Negative News can reduce demand removing the needed force to maintain momentum. Again acting to create an imbalance.

Strong force /energy is required to break a resistance which in reality is a zone of significant supply or selling pressure.

Consolidation /accumulation are points of rest. Force is required also to move it out of this zone and if a significant news item creates an imbalance favouring down trend, so be it, a fall, and if demand volume increases, a rise. And if demand volume is low, the price will fall through.

It's all about demand versus supply. Monitoring volume with price is the key.

Simplified into the following
Is the price rising?
Is the price falling?
Is the price in a zone?
What are the Volumes, is it increasing or decreasing?
What's the force?
What's the imbalance, supply or demand imbalance?
Is the force sufficient to maintain the uptrend or overcome the resistance or price zone?

If Yes up
If No down



That's it in a nutshell.

👍✔️
Your write-up perfectly captures the true essence of Mr. Market, the very foundation that gave birth to both TA and FA.
In summary, it all revolves around the psychology, emotions, expectations, and reactions of market participants. The market is ultimately driven by human behavior, fear, greed, optimism, panic, and perception.

ositadima1:
I want to introduce you to the world of technical analysis. Maybe you will end up liking it more than ofe akwu and rice with assorted meat.

ACCESSCORP did over 2.4 billion naira in trades. That means some people wanted it so badly that they collectively spent over 2.4 billion naira buying it (buy side), while some other people did not want it for various reasons such as profit-taking, rotating into another stock, dumping, impatience, selling at a loss, converting inheritance to cash, buying land, paying for a burial, funding a wedding, paying debt, and many other reasons you can think of (sell side).

What is interesting is that these two sides are independent of each other, and nobody was forced to buy, although some sellers may have had their hands forced for one reason or another.

Now, assuming these buyers came in today wanting to buy, but there were very few sellers, what do you think would happen to the price? Yes, they would start buying at higher prices. It is also true that many people would refuse to buy if they do not have a strong reason, but the buyers who are willing to buy will still push the price higher because the few sellers available will immediately sense the imbalance.

So my point is that a stock does not move because of news or fundamentals alone. Sometimes imbalance alone can move it. The funny thing is that most people do not even care what is moving it. What they want to see is motion, and once they see motion, they start buying until the sell side comes back with heavy supply.

The end.

In an NSEMPA thread within the investment subsection, many would probably label your observation and this post as insensitive.
Some would even describe you as anti-poor or outright pro-PBAT.

In today’s Nigeria, a significant number of citizens believe that the current administration under PBAT bears major responsibility for the worsening economic hardship and rising poverty across the country.

To them, the harsh realities of inflation, unemployment, and declining purchasing power have deepened the suffering of ordinary Nigerians. In frustration, many now hold the government accountable not only for the economic pain, but also for the social consequences that come with widespread poverty, including the increasing number of children being raised in extremely difficult conditions.

The emotions behind such reactions are understandable, especially in a nation where millions are struggling daily to survive.

ClassicEvilSpir:
Several times, I've watched videos where the woman (or man) would describe how they are facing poverty with their children, how they can't even find a place to stay because they can't afford it, yet proceed to have even more kids.

I am a student, I make good money (Nigerian standard), yet I can't imagine caring for 1 child with my finances. However, people who earn less than one tenth of my monthly profit continue to have kids.

What is the mindset behind this?

ZENITHBANK on the move.


https://youtube.com/shorts/06dMrpco2XM?si=2WqtCXBYzF7TUQ9W

I had initially chosen to ignore your self-defeatist post and scroll past it. Even though this is a faceless forum, it was obvious who the indirect shade was aimed at. But now, I decided to respond.

Your message does not define me. Not even a little. It is nothing but a misplaced, bitter analogy born from deep imagination, myopic understanding, malice, and sheer belicosity.
You saw someone sharing their investing journey, the ups, downs, lessons, and wins, and instead of taking value from it, your heart chose resentment.

Let me be clear: I share my experiences for two main reasons. First, as personal motivation and documentation of my own path.
Second, as a heartfelt expression of gratitude to the Almighty God who alone has the power to transform a slave into a king, the poor into wealth, the hopeless into grace, and the barren into a joyful mother.
That is not pride, that is worship and testimony. If that bothers you, the problem is not with my sharing, it is with what lives in your heart.
The same energy you used to write that post attacking people who celebrate their progress could have been used to focus on your own growth.
But instead, you chose to generalise, insult, and paint every successful Nigerian as arrogant and boastful simply because they refuse to hide their blessings or stay silent like you prefer.
That is classic crab mentality. You are not calling for humility, you are uncomfortable with other people's light while sitting in your own darkness.

May God heal whatever is eating you up inside and grant you the grace to celebrate others instead of resenting their testimonies. The same God that elevated some is still available to elevate you too, but not with this spirit.
Change your heart, my brother. This kind of post only exposes you, it doesn't diminish those walking in gratitude.
Success is not the problem. Envy disguised as advice is. (Proverbs 26:24-26, James 3:14-16)

mikeapollo:
I have realized that most Nigerians who become privileged or blessed don't know how to remain humble, modest, keep low profile and be less boastful. They think they made it because they are smarter than others, and those who are underprivileged or still struggling are less intelligent, less brilliant or not smart enough.
That is why whenever they have some anniversary or occasion to celebrate, they would invite musicians to sing their praises and use the opportunity to brag that they are better, superior to some unknown or imaginary rivals or enemies etc. Just to prove that they are ''above them''

lol
Agba is looking for gbas gbos

Agbalowomeri:
Makinde person need special energy to read your piece from beginning to the end. Na like this you sabi talk for real life?