₦airaland Forum

basilico:
obedience4, writerrng
Iran is doomed.

‎Oil isn't a faucet. And that's why iran is cooked.
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‎People keep asking the same question about the u. S. Naval blockade of iran:
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‎if they cannot ship the oil, why do they not just stop pumping it?
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‎The answer is that they cannot. The reason involves physics, geology, and three quarters of a century of accumulated reservoir damage that the regime cannot undo. Let me walk through it.
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‎An oil well is not a faucet
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‎a faucet has a valve. You close the valve, water stops, you open it, water flows. Same as before.
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‎An oil well does not work that way at all.
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‎An oil reservoir is a high-pressure system. Crude sits trapped in porous rock typically sandstone or limestone under pressure measured in thousands of pounds per square inch, mixed with natural gas above and saltwater below. When you drill into that rock, you are creating a controlled leak. The oil flows up the well because the underground pressure is pushing it.
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‎When you shut the wellhead, the pressure does not stay still. It redistributes. Water from below pushes upward. Gas from above expands. The oil column gets disturbed sometimes permanently. Petroleum engineers have a term for this: shut-in damage.
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‎What actually happens when you "just turn it off"
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‎three categories of damage start the moment you shut in a producing well.
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‎The first is water coning and gas breakthrough. While the well is producing, the pressure drawdown holds the oil-water and oil-gas interfaces in roughly stable positions. Stop production, and water begins to rise into the producing zone while gas migrates downward. When you eventually restart, the well now produces salt water and natural gas instead of oil sometimes permanently.
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‎The second is wax and asphaltene deposition. Crude oil contains paraffin waxes and heavy asphaltenes that stay liquid only because the oil is hot and moving. Stop the flow, and these solids precipitate inside the wellbore, the production tubing, and the surface flowlines. Restart attempts plug the well shut. Iranian crude is notoriously waxy.
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‎The third is fines migration and sand settling. The perforations through the steel casing the holes through which oil enters the well from the rock clog with sand, fines, and asphaltene sludge during shut-in. Restart cuts flow rate, sometimes to zero, until a workover crew is deployed at six-figure cost per well to clean each one out.
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‎For an old field and iran's giant fields are old: ahvaz, marun, gachsaran, all producing since the 1950s and 60s shut-in damage is brutal. Texas and oklahoma operators in low-price periods routinely keep pumping at a loss rather than shut in, because the damage from shutting in costs more than the lost revenue.
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‎Iran's specific problem
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‎there are three additional factors making iran's situation worse than a typical producing nation's.
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‎Decades of sanctions have starved the industry of western technology. Halliburton, schlumberger, and baker hughes were the global leaders in well stimulation, workover, and reservoir management until they were forced out of iran between 2010 and 2018. The national iranian oil company has limped along on chinese-supplied equipment of significantly lower quality, plus reverse-engineered russian and pre-revolution american gear. Restoration after a shut-in requires precisely the high-end services iran no longer has.
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‎Iran also depends on water injection to maintain reservoir pressure. Most of iran's giant fields are on secondary recovery meaning seawater is pumped down injection wells to push oil toward producers. Shut in the producers and you must also shut in the injectors, or the field over-pressurizes. Stopping injection lets pressure decline. Restarting injection costs hundreds of millions of dollars and typically returns the field to lower output than before. There is no clean reset button.
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‎And oil is 30-40% of iran's government budget. Stop pumping for 90 days and the iranian currency collapses, subsidies on bread and electricity vanish, and the regime faces a domestic crisis worse than the 2022 protests. They cannot stop. They are physically and politically incapable of stopping.
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‎What is actually happening right now
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‎iran continues pumping because it must. The u. S. Blockade, which began february 28, prevents shipment.
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‎Iranian onshore storage at kharg island and bandar abbas filled up within weeks. After that, the regime began using its own fleet of aging very large crude carriers as floating storage, anchored off the strait of hormuz with their ais transponders dark.
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‎The floating storage filled up next.
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‎What happens then is what petroleum engineers call a production disposal crisis. Each pumping platform is producing oil that has nowhere to go and gas associated with that oil that, if not flared, will over-pressurize the entire system. So iran is now flaring increasing quantities of associated gas (visible from nasa viirs night satellite imagery), burning off the secondary product into the sky just to keep the primary product moving.
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‎Flaring is wasteful, expensive, and visible from orbit. It is what countries do when they have run out of options.
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‎The long-term damage
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‎even when this war ends, iran's oil sector will not return to where it stood on february 27, 2026.
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‎A reservoir engineer can model the damage. Estimates range from 20-35% permanent productivity loss across iran's giant fields, depending on how long the chaos continues and how badly the wells are mishandled while it is going on. That is hundreds of billions of dollars of reserves that will sit underground forever, because the regime did not have the technology, the time, or the strategic patience to manage a controlled shut-in properly.
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‎This is what makes the u. S. Naval blockade strategically devastating in a way that ordinary sanctions are not.
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‎Sanctions reduce demand for iranian oil. The blockade physically prevents its movement. And because iranian oil cannot be turned off and cannot be shipped, every barrel pumped now becomes either flared waste or reservoir-damaging backpressure.
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‎The islamic republic is not facing a financial squeeze. It is facing a geological squeeze the kind that does not get undone with a ceasefire, a sanctions waiver, or a billion-dollar qatari escrow account.
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‎It is the kind of damage that the rocks themselves remember.
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‎A blockade held for six months is a decade-long revenue hit to the islamic republic.
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Going by what you wrote or copied, how come western oil companies want to start pumping oil from abandoned oil wells in Venezuela. How come shell is back in ogoni land to restart oil production abandoned since abacha. How come Iraq were able to start pumping oil after Iraqi oil wells were abandoned during the war. Even in Libya, eni oil company has restarted oil production.

emmanuelewumi:
If you sell 30,000 units of Presco shares and 177,000 units of Nahco shares at their current price, one will raise about N100 million.

Based on the volumes of both shares they can't pay more than a combined dividend of N4 million.

If that same N100 million was invested in FGN bond one will get over N16 million per annum at N8 million every 6 months.


Planning to trim down my Presco and Nahco shares when Q1 2026 results are out and diversify into FGN bond

Good evening sir, how does this fgn bond work. Is it like treasury bills. Also can it be done through your bank like TB

Trump i see your handwork

Vic2023:
⚡️Libyan sources

In a statement by the commander of the Southern Libya Liberation Operations Room, Mohammed Werdko,

He officially announces the start of the battle to liberate southern Libya from UAE-backed Haftar’s militias.

So this small peace wey dey Libya don tire some people

Exousiang01:
Actually it's the insurance that is supposed to cover the Camry.
I believe companies should have comprehensive insurance.
They should have explain to you that the cost of Camry will be covered by insurance.
Insurance companies don't play around with big companies like BUA.

BUT, not withstanding the company is supposed have contacted the victim before all these drama started.
I believe if they had reached out, you guys won't have needed to take the action you took.

That said, the company is still supposed to some kinda or palliative for the victim, even if the insurance takes care of the car.

Personally I feel the Logistics manager will have a lot of questions to answer as to why the insurance didn't cover the cost. But that one no concern una again. Na him sabi wetin him to talk.

Even small me, all my motor, both personal and company get comprehensive.

Which insurance ? Third party insurance will cover wetin

PulaPower:
Mtchew

How many people con get money for 50litres of fuel during Obasanjo, compare to now?

How many people even get the corolla back then, compare to now?

Una go taya..

Toyota corolla under gej was 2.2m. Today it's 7m. Mtchew. Supporters of failure

WriteerNg:
⚡Photos of exhausted soldiers from the 14th brigade of the 2nd battalion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been posted online. The Ministry of Defense has responded to the situation.

"The guys are at their positions without food and water! The command is not responding. The soldiers are losing consciousness from hunger, drinking rainwater. There are also problems with communication," wrote the author of the post.

The Ministry of Defense stated that logistics to these soldiers' positions have been disrupted. They assured that the brigade commander has taken control of the situation.

"Despite the logistical difficulties, we are trying to address the issues of providing supplies to the soldiers and replacing them. Such situations should not happen, but the situation on different fronts can be quite critical," said the Ministry of Defense.

Next time Russia comes for pow. No Jupiter will stop these guys from surrendering

Borrowed 6 billion dollars two weeks ago. Now 516. Haba tinubu na wetin

DomPerignon:
No part of SE shares borders with Delta state. The river Niger is the boundary that divided old western region from the old eastern region.

The talk of merging Orlu with Anioma is also to have the waterways seperating Delta from SE be ceded to SE zone.

Agbor in Delta north shares the water boundary with both Anambra and Imo state.

So this is the sinister motive of why the SE wants Agbor to be included.

If you like deny all you can. There have been talks by Ohaneze to have Orlu merge with Anioma and the capital moved to Orlu.

This is what Okowa is subtly rejecting.

Absolute rubbish. Do you even know your geography. Drop that phone and go play with sand

A man on a four year course is thanking nelfund of 2 years for graduation that is if he has not done 3 years before nelfund. his parents that where footing both fees and living expenses deserve the accolades

What display of foolishness by op. Not surprised at logic of lgbo haters. How can orlu that has no boundaries with asaba be a capital to anioma. So if one wants to go to orlu he will leave anioma pass anambra and get to orlu. Name a state in Nigeria that has another state between it's territory and it's capital

leo1234:
UACN is still undervalued. A 300 naira stock.


Listen to other analysts and DYOR.

NB: I don't own UACN

Uacn undervalued? How? Because they bought loss making chivita from coca cola or is there another underlying value hidden somewhere. Last financial year they sold property which accounted for a great percentage of profit.

What of Union dicon, saw they were no 1 on price gainers table. For a stock that no one can remember when last they released a financial statement yet people are trading on the stock.

Sorry to say most of the price appreciation we are seeing is not bulls market but manipulation market. The likes of ellah lakes and zichs template is being adopted by those owning majority shares in companies.

Lai Muhammed as a minister under buhari said bandits are ordinary business men who are not waving flags. Today same person is saying they are criminals

Fake. How did you arrest 33 people with all these arms and no resistance

Why are they sitting comfortably with no handcuffs and their faces hidden from the public. Even their names are hidden

Why do you guys keep lying that fed govt is paying trainees 22k.

The price of some stocks makes no sense. See uacn that paid peanuts is 110. Union dicon is 19. When last the Union dicon release financial statement

First bank might not pay any dividends so what really is driving the price

TimeManager:
There's no other Southern Presidential candidate whose balls is as big as the Jagaban's, not even OBJ.
Jagaban has gradually begun restructuring and decentralization of the country. First, he decentralized the School of Aviation in each geopolitical zone, decentralized Army Depot in each geopolitical zone and now, Police Academy will be decentralized in each region as well. It's very likely he decentralizes the Defense Academy anytime soon.
He has already created Development Commission in each region, he has decentralized electricity, he is about to create state police and give the country a new constitution.
Tinubu is an enigma, he dares where others cannot, made of balls of steel.
Is it Peter Obi?, he will be too scared to make these kind of decisions, someone that cannot even look Atiku in the eye.
Is it Atiku himself?, how can he restructure to benefit the South?, someone who put out a tweet and had it deleted because of pressure.

Kiss the truth!

About to create which state police. Who told you tinubu wants state police. Abeg which new constitution did tinubu said he is creating. All these laptop boys

[quote author=WriteerNg post=139169427]

Trump:

I would have won Vietnam very quickly. pic.twitter.com/S6wAOpTYrM

— Clash Report (@clashreport) April 21, 2026

same Vietnam he was forming that he had medical issues

WriteerNg:
⚡Zelensky's Office is discussing the possibility of revoking exit permits from Ukraine for young people aged 18 to 22, Verkhovna Rada MP Dmitry Razumkov said.

Omo this man means business. It's to the last Ukrainian. Who go dey attend to the inner and emotional needs of Ukrainian women

The way tinubu and inec are behaving, it's like they are forgetting that they are setting a dangerous example for future presidents. Can the south West stomach all these if another president does it. God help Nigeria if tinubu hands over to another president with this especially if his from north

WriteerNg:
⚡Senior UAE official Reem Al Hashimy on Iran:

We used our oil wealth to build an economic powerhouse.

They are a pariah state… they wanted to break that model.

UAE has faced over 2,800 missiles and drones in just 40 days, with “more than 90%” hitting civilian infrastructure.

I am confused. I thought they said they shot down 96% of the missiles

The biggest tragedy of this story is the number of checkpoints on this Benin route is more than 100. Police, army, anti cult, immigration, road safety, customs. Yet kidnapping is steady

I see a repeat of the obasanjo era where stock prices were just rising before a correction. I ask will the coys with these 200, 150, 300 naira stocks experience a 100% rise in 2026 profit. Because a 10% rise in profits doesn't justify the price. Because at this rate without pull backs
nacho, lafarge, pz, zenith, gtb fit reach 1000 naira by December

Who knows udenwa and nnamani. Two politicians that retired since 2023.

Tinubu will never restructure jack as long as he his in office. Until a Northern enters you will start hearing him and his supporters asking for restructuring.

At the rate tinubu is borrowing the next govt will be forced to seek a bail out from imf and trust imf. They will ask Nigeria to devalue their currency

oloriooko:
It's not over for Arsenal yet why is everyone grumbling and losing it?
Arsenal will come on top of this for sure, the league is not over yet.
Arteta has been amazing this season and he must be commended for taking this team to this position
Pep is just making gragra as usual, this league is for Arsenal

It's over for arsenal. Their confidence level has dropped by 50%. If man city wins on Wednesday their confidence drops by another 25%

Op wtf are you. If you want obi achievements go to anambra. Nonsense

How come directors from nnpc, dpr, firs, custom dont do sensitisation in the south east. Na only korope soldiers dey do sensitisation

Another week has ended, nothing from access bank. Its like they want to replace first bank as the last to report earnings

Is it me or what is the essence of this flyover