₦airaland Forum

Sunrisepebble:
I’ve posted the list and my target prices for the stocks. I’m sure there are other ones but someone will have to point them out to me so I can do my research.

Check JBERGER, look at earnings projection in the next 2 years, look at their cash add interest they will earn on the cash, compare that to current Market value.

Sunrisepebble:
I think that’s what’s driving the price because I wasn’t that impressed with the result

Their result is good. The Reason why Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 looks lower is because of some high base effect of tarriff increase that happened in 2024. If you plot the chat of quarterly revenue in 2024 vs 2025, you will see the high jump that happened in 2024, but 2025 was smoother. You have to think about it that way, if not you will run off with the assumption of an unimpressive result.

Streetinvestor2:
If not that u see ngx as gambling. Why waste ur time to go queue for new listed companies
Only to help the promoters move the price to desirable target to dump on u
The funny part is sometimes the stock does not even worth the listing price because u don't know how they arrived at such price

Its crazy. People don't calculate before allocating capital.

I see no reason that company should be valued at N2b it is listing for, yet people are rushing it.

They are coming to the market because they want to raise capital.

I would rather keep buying PRESCO and MTN, people don't understand the deep moats in those bussinesses and the long runway it has.
these 2 businesses will throw off a lot of cash in 5 years time.

They are very cheap now compared to their future value.

It's been a while we heard from oga megawealth
He never come back from IPPC?

Omooba77:
Aliko Dangote has released specific details regarding the alleged foreign education expenses of Engr. Farouk Ahmed's four children:

Children's names and the alleged Secondary Schools they attended in Switzerland (each for approximately 6 years):

- Faisal Farouk: Montreux School
- Farouk Jr.: Aiglon College
- Ashraf Farouk: Institut Le Rosey
- Farhana Farouk: La Garenne International School

Alleged Costs Released:
- Total for secondary education (tuition, upkeep, air tickets, etc.): Over $5 million for four children.

- Additional tertiary education: Approximately $2 million for four children's university fees (over 4 years).

- Specific for 2025: $210,000 spent on Faisal's Harvard MBA ($150,000 tuition + $60,000 for upkeep, tickets, and incidentals).

What's your Source for this?

emmanuelewumi:
Sold NASCON to buy Nahco a compounder with a Return on Invested Capital of over 50%

I'm struggling to understand the growth Trajectory for NAHCO. Their main cash cow (International Airlines) has been struggling with low passenger traffic since 2021 or so. There hasn't been an improvement this year; to call it a compounder with no visible growth path is hard for me.

emmanuelewumi:
Sold the small banks to buy a market leader ie Zenith

Sold NASCON to buy Nahco a compounder with a Return on Invested Capital of over 50%

Sold Seplat because of the never-ending increase in their outstanding shares to increase my position in Aradel

Heard SEPLAT will do Something about the Shareprice next year, but something has to happen in LSE first for that to happen.

HesInMe:
Of course. See below. It's been a minute, so unfortunately I can't pinpoint the specific timestamps. Ellah also has an extensive video (I think it was on Spaces) where they also discuss some yield and pricing metrics, but I don't have it now.

https://www.youtube.com/live/QkhkypbU3Qg?si=dMbhCNTgv5hQhGDP

Here are some of my notes on oil palm economics from the events:

Cultivation
Harvested year round: Highest yielding oil, 5-10x more than rapeseed, sunflower, soy
- 4-5 years to cash flow
- 9 years to peak production
- 25 years to maturity
- Replant at year 30
- Spacing 9m on center

Yield
• Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB): 20-25 tons per ha
(Presco currently at 12.8 tons, going to 14 tons)
• Crude Palm Oil (CPO): 3.74 metric tons per ha

Price
• FFB: ~N200k per ton
• CPO: ~$900 per metric ton

Okay, thank you

emmanuelewumi:
Sold NGX to buy Zenith

Sold NASCON to buy Nahco

Sold Seplat to buy Aradel.

Bought NASCON at a single digit price.

Bought Seplat at less than N600.

Okay, it was more of Capital reallocation selling for you than anything fundamentally wrong with those businesses.

emmanuelewumi:
I sold the following this year
1. NGX
4. NASCON
9. Seplat

Do you mind sharing why you sold the following stocks
1. NGX
4. NASCON
9. Seplat

HesInMe:
Lol. ChatGPT will be the end of humanity.

Take some time to learn about the business. There's a YT video online where Presco's CFO discusses the economics of oil palm plantations. The differences in yield based on plantation age, and in margin based on revenue mix, are not qualitative. They're real money, and massive numbers at that.

Please can you share the YT video link

Pls how do i sell my PRESCO rights

starpower:
as naira is strengthening, we are experiencing deflation, so companies cannot easily grow sales, competitive products can start gaining share back if they have cost advantages. All this wars, loans, and excessive corruption is not going to favour investing. We are really not in a good place economically; investors are not blind. Let be honest the market have it own mind, it prices sometimes correctly the risk existing.

If you wait for the economically right environment to invest, you may never deploy capital. Uncertainty always exists in all market environments.
"...But uncertainty is a friend to the buyer of long-term Values" - Warren Buffett

nosa2:
I have skimmed thorough the volume of some stocks and I don't see reason to be alarmed.

It's just noise. This CGT will not see light at the end of the tunnel. Taiwo is under pressure. Market participants are not sleeping on this matter.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQ7AR0dCP7r/?igsh=Y3diZzNrZ3R1OTZm

brotherly:
The way de market be now , even 10% fit no bring people back .

Just shows how some unserious elements will just read 2 chapters of a text book and use same to develop policy for a Nation.

I have pulled out 65% of my funds ...we use the remaining 35% dey follow them before 2008 repeat itself.

2008 was a different case, though. Then over 70% of our market was FPI. When the Global crisis happened, they had to pull out funds from the market. Now the reverse is the case, such a happening will not have that kind of significant impact again.

Shared this Last month.
This stock will quietly do N800.
Heard Q3 result is good. May surpass my N60 FY EPS target

NettyNelly:
I once shared something like this for Beta Glass when it was at sub-N60 Nov last year.

In One Up on Wall Street, Peter Lynch mentioned:
“You can see the importance of earnings on any chart that has an earnings line running alongside the stock price. Books of stock charts are available from most brokerage firms, and it’s instructive to flip through them. On chart after chart, the two lines will move in tandem, or if the stock price strays away from the earnings line, sooner or later it will come back to the earnings.”

Like Peter Lynch said, the earnings line running alongside the stock price has been the case for DANGCEM, until recently. With Q2 EPS at ₦18.4 (the highest EPS in a Quarter) and the stock price still stagnant, earnings have now diverged from the stock price, which means the stock price will need to reprice upward to reflect the improved earnings in the Business.

With improved FY 2025 earnings anticipated, the stock price is bound to move sooner or later to reflect these improved earnings. Otherwise, it becomes significantly more undervalued, which is unlikely to remain the case for long.

Disclosure: I have an Interest in the Business. Bought at the Sub-N500 level.

emmanuelewumi:
Thank you.

I have corrected it

Can you share the thought Process behind your forecast?

emmanuelewumi:
Q3 is usually the worst.

I see a full year 2025 EPS of N155 to N160 and a full year 2025 EPS of N250 by Presco

2026 EPS of N250 you mean?

I once shared something like this for Beta Glass when it was at sub-N60 Nov last year.

In One Up on Wall Street, Peter Lynch mentioned:
“You can see the importance of earnings on any chart that has an earnings line running alongside the stock price. Books of stock charts are available from most brokerage firms, and it’s instructive to flip through them. On chart after chart, the two lines will move in tandem, or if the stock price strays away from the earnings line, sooner or later it will come back to the earnings.”

Like Peter Lynch said, the earnings line running alongside the stock price has been the case for DANGCEM, until recently. With Q2 EPS at ₦18.4 (the highest EPS in a Quarter) and the stock price still stagnant, earnings have now diverged from the stock price, which means the stock price will need to reprice upward to reflect the improved earnings in the Business.

With improved FY 2025 earnings anticipated, the stock price is bound to move sooner or later to reflect these improved earnings. Otherwise, it becomes significantly more undervalued, which is unlikely to remain the case for long.

Disclosure: I have an Interest in the Business. Bought at the Sub-N500 level.

GeneralDae:
UBA doesn’t deserve this. Their H1 2025 report is good. I also wonder why Zenith is being punished.

For ZENITH, some Broker's reports I have seen this morning is saddening.

What could be their motives for that?

zendi:
Welcome back from your own journalistic monkey hunting expedition.

I hope the monkeys you want to dump on us are fat, and not mercilessly overpriced ?

I don't own Okomu, nor do I intend to. I only own the best businesses in any sector.

just wanted to touch grass and learn about the business

Visited Okomu Last Week.
Had a tour of the Palm and Rubber Factory and the plantations.
They are currently expanding their Palm Oil Factory ramp (in the pics)

Met most of the managers, Graham was very hospitable.

emmanuelewumi:
Please contact CSCS, you can also go through your Stockbroker

Thank you

yMcy56:
https://portal.cscs.ng/home/register

Thank You

emmanuelewumi:
Nestle stock price 15 years ago. It also issued 2 bonus shares in the last 2 years.

All these shows that stocks that created extraordinary wealth for shareholders in the last 15 to 25 years are not banking stocks with the exception of GTCO and Zenith

Please can you kindly share a direct link to subscribe to this CSCS online

PRESCO Div is coming in today.

emmaodet:
I agree with you.
The first red flag i notice is continuous reduction in revenue followed by dwindling margins.
Those are No..no for me.
They are early warnings e.g Tripple Gee.
If revenue is dwindling Q on Q and YoY, na to start to dey prepare my kaiya t run.
Another is CCC (cash conversion Cycle) for manufacturing / consumer / production companies.
If your payable days are increasing - struggling to pay suppliers, Inventory conversion ratio increasing - struggling to produce and fill up goods and also struggling to sell, Receivables oustanding increasing - struggling to collect your cash from customers / literarily begging customers to take and sell your goods, it is a big redflag to me.
Inventory increasing faster than revenue and earnings
Receivables increasing faster than revenue and earnings to name a few

You can't totally judge with CCC, there may be reasons why Receivables for Eg is growing faster, which you may not be able to know, except you speak with the CFO.

Take Mecure for Eg. They have had an unloved CCC in since last year, but when you speak with the management you will get a better picture.

emmanuelewumi:
Are you not the guy who wrote about the below average gross margin of Chams few months ago

I prefer a gross margin of 50% and above

No I'm not. It's not Chams

emmaodet:
How do someone have access to an interest-free loan?

Your Family and Friends and sometimes Employers if you're an employee

NettyNelly:
Thanks for your response.

I agree with you. The instance I gave for a software business which can have high gross margin at the beginning but that could disappear when it starts facing stiff competition.

But that's different for a difficult to copy business like NAHCO, NGXGROUP and PRESCO for Eg.

You are a buffet prodigy that I admire a lot. So I know you always have a long-term outlook for these businesses you invest in.

I would like to know how you access the longterm durability of the moats before investing.

Take for Eg. There’s a listed Technology bussiness that used to provide crucial service to MTN (biggest customer), but that's no longer the same because MTN started self-providing same service.
The said business had high ROIC in the recent years. High gross margin but that won't be the same going forward. This same business is selling at a single digit PE

emmanuelewumi:
Consider the gross margin. Businesses with a high gross margin have a strong moat.

You can also consider comparing the gross Profit with the total asset of the business

over 20% is fair

Thanks for your response.

I agree with you. The instance I gave for a software business which can have high gross margin at the beginning but that could disappear when it starts facing stiff competition.

But that's different for a difficult to copy business like NAHCO, NGXGROUP and PRESCO for Eg.

You are a buffet prodigy that I admire a lot. So I know you always have a long-term outlook for these businesses you invest in.

I would like to know how you access the longterm durability of the moats before investing.