COUP IN YEMEN? Mass Resignations Among Army And Diplomatic Officials After Massacre

http://www.businessinsider.com/ali-mohsen-yemen-2011-3#ixzz1HELVbIEH

Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar said today his soldiers would protect the protesters.

Ali Mohsen is the half brother of President Saleh and is described by commentators on Al Jazeera as the most influential army officer. Ali Mohsen controls 60% of the military.

Now the defected army chiefs have deployed tanks and army vehicles in the Yemeni capital.

Saleh fired his entire government yesterday as a concession to the protesters. But he's still trying to hold on.

Update: Things moving very fast this moring. In addition to Gen. Ali-Mohsen al-ahmar, there have been several other generals and diplomats who have announced their resignation. Preisdent Saleh has to be fearing a coup right now.

Here Are The 11 Countries At Risk Of Becoming The Next Libya

http://www.businessinsider.com/middle-east-uprising-guide-2011-3#ixzz1HENR019Z

The revolutions in North Africa have expanded from a tiny uprising in Tunisia, to a full blown Middle East revolt that has toppled governments and brought the west's biggest powers to war.

Now, with Tunisia finished, Egypt primed for elections, and Libya at war, who's next?

We guide you through those candidates still in the midst of change, who have yet to see their regimes toppled. Some are countering with extreme force. Others are trying to appease their upset populations. But all remain under stress as protesters take to the streets

Syria: President's regime now under threat
Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Single party authoritarian, President Bashar al-Assad

Conclusion: Though the economic situation is not as dire in Syria as in other countries, protesters have still stormed government buildings, burning some, and now threaten the stability of President Bashar al-Assad's regime. The president believes his partnership with Iran and support for the Palestinian cause will keep him safe, but recent evidence would suggest that's no longer the case.

Bahrain: Saudi Arabia helps to crush uprising
Investments to watch: WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF), Market Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES)

Style of government: Constitutional monarchy

Conclusion: Bahrain's majority Shia protest movement has been violently crushed by a combination of domestic authorities and aid from fellow GCC members, most notably Saudi Arabia. The assault has been brutal, but effective.

If Bahrain's protest movement does not recieve external support from either the U.S. or Iran, it will likely fail. Each of those parties has something at stake in the conflict, however. The U.S . Navy has a key base in the country, from which it operates. And Iran is naturally allied with its fellow Shias.

The likely result, however, is a continuation of Saudi Arabia-Bahrain's brutal supression tactics until calm is achieved.

Yemen: Government brutally supressing protesters
Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Presidential democracy, elections not entirely free

Conclusion: Yemen's protest movement has been brutally attacked by government forces. On Friday, more than 20 people were killed in a government crackdown, with snipers firing on protesters. Just two days later, Yemen's president fired his government.

Yemen's future is tied to that of the region's main power, Saudi Arabia. If Saudi continues to run with a policy of fierce government crackdowns, Yemen's protest movement will continue to experience bloody days like Friday, and limited political change.

Saudi Arabia: The lynchpin holding the Gulf together
Investments to watch: WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF), Market Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES)

Style of government: Absolute Monarchy

Conclusion: Saudi Arabia is the regional key to preventing the Gulf from turning into North Africa. The government's willingness to use force against its own people, and against the populations of other GCC countries, has been evidenced.

For Saudi, this is as much about maintaining regional hegemony as it is about quieting a domestic disturbance. Their main rival is Iran, and Saudi Arabia's leadership will do everything it can to prevent Iran from influencing minority Shia populations throughout the Gulf.

Iran: Could Tehran try to move in on Bahrain?

Image: ap
Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Islamic Republic, with democratically elected representatives. Less than certain how "democratic" elections truly are. Ruled by Supreme Leader, who is a both religious and political leader.

Conclusion: Iran has been dealing with protests domestically in the wake of the broader movement in the Middle East, but has thus far been successful in quelling the opposition. Iran had a massive revolution in 2009, which it quelled brutally.

It could soon attempt to interfere in Bahrain, where there is a large Shia population. This could bring it into a broader conflict with Saudi Arabia, and is likely the "worst case scenario" on the mind of most geo-strategists.

Morocco: Reforms already lined up
Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)

Style of government: Constitutional Monarchy

Conclusion: Morocco is now experiencing a protest movement calling for political reforms, even thought the country's King has made clear he is moving forward with such actions. Impatience is very much the order of the day, but protests here will likely speed up progress rather than overthrow the government or derail reform.

Jordan: King Abdullah tries to get ahead of the crisis
Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)

Style of government: Constitutional monarchy, incorporating limited democracy

Conclusion: Jordan is continuing to experience protests against the government, even though the country's leadership has been reshuffled. Hundreds of people protested on Friday, again. The government is working to line up reforms to the country's constitution, and much like in Morocco, protesters are piling on the pressure for these reforms to be sped up.

Pakistan: Democracy under threat as state remains unstable
Investments to watch: Claymore’s BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (FRN)

Style of government: Democratic republic

Conclusion: Pakistan has a serious economic crisis, a weakness of state shown in recent flooding, confused positions over the U.S. and Taliban, as well as large anti-government, pro-Muslim fundamentalist forces.

The potential for change is there. The biggest power source remains the military, however, and another coup, similar to the one that brought Musharraf to power, could occur.

Vietnam: A sharp recession could lead to opposition against Communist rule
Investments to watch: Market Vectors Vietnam (VNM)

Style of government: Authoritarian capitalism

Conclusion: In Asia, Vietnam looks a likely candidate for protests, particularly if the economy slows down and unemployment increases. The economic trigger for a downturn would need to be pulled, however, before any change would take place.

Venezuela: Has Hugo Chavez outstayed his welcome?
Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Authoritarian republic

Conclusion: The economic numbers scream change, but there's no way to know whether or not Chavez has outstayed his welcome. The country hasn't had the same, long-term oppressive experience as a country like Egypt. And its leadership still appeals to the anti-American sentiment held by the populace.

China: Could a severe economic downturn derail the Chinese regime?
Investments to watch: iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund (FXI), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index Fund (EWH)

Style of government: Authoritarian

Conclusion: There's no guarantee rural China won't see an uprising related to soaring prices and high unemployment there, but it's unlikely to be passed on to the country's cities. It would take a massive economic downturn, like one created by a liquidity crisis leading to a banking crisis leading to a recession, to trigger an unemployment surge that would threaten the regime.

A small protest movement, referred to the Jasmine Revolution, is developing, and may yet hold more protests

^^^^ Add Nigeria after April elections.

Yemen government is likely to fall.
Bahrain is a possibility.

The rest are unlikely. Countries like Syria, Iran, China, Vietnam and Venezuela have too big a security apparatus loyal to the state.

Security apararus no longer reliable.

Some personel no longer have the 'liver' to be firing on people.

Anything can happen.

Even 'Chavez' who wants to be president for life is vulnerable.

Sun of god:

Security apararus no longer reliable.

Some personel no longer have the 'liver' to be firing on people.

Anything can happen.

Even 'Chavez' who wants to be president for life is vulnerable.

I dont think Hugo would have any problems as a coup
was implimented to oust him in 2002-03 as when he was removed
the people demanded for him to come back ie the all came out in mass
on the streets and demanded the military to find out who kidnapped him.

The military obliged and he was returned to power.

The people blamed the coup on outside forces , your guess is as good as mine!