jason123:

SW
The South is based on my educated guess. People in the SW like Jonathan, they will not vote for PDP for gov or senate but they will vote for Jonathan because they like his name Goodluck and they think he is a Messiah. Jonathan will get 55%, Ribadu gets 32%, Buhari 8%, and Shekarau 5%. (Buhari got 7% in Lagos in 2003).

^^^
That was a good prediction except that you underestimated Buhari in the SW especially Lagos. The SW has a soft spot for GEJ (according to my private research) but I think you over estimated him there especially after the "rascal" statement.

danjohn:

Well Jonathan has a good shot at winning Lagos. He will do well with the SS and SE population in Lagos. Im not sure that the SW is sold on Robadu. They prefer ACN to PDP but they do not hate Jonathan. As for the rascals comment, I know if was a big deal on the internet. I do not know if the man on the street who has no access to internet heard about it much.

Also remember that the governorship elections are not on the same day as the presidential elections. Hence, it is not going to be a situation where folks vote ACN from top to bottom. Since people like Jonathan more than they like PDP, that will be a huge factor.

Genbuhari3:

where did you factor in anti Jonathan sentiment as a result of missing the debate, being interviewed by Dbanj.

Genbuhari3:

As for the Northern vote, Nassarawa, Niger, FCT, part of Plateau cannot go the way of Jonathan. Leave the whole of North west to Buhari, give Adamawa to Ribadu and Jonatha in the whole of the North East, the rest to Buhari.

Genbuhari3:

South West, forget it, Jonathan cannot win it.

Genbuhari3:

SS and SE is his sure bet and that is why he is not bothered going there again. he has been chasing North and South West.

Genbuhari3:

Danjohn,

Nice one, but I dont agree with the result. if you had a model a long time that threw a run-off, how come you have a new one with Jonathan's outright win, especially when people on NL and on the street are leaving his camp everyday. where did you factor in anti Jonathan sentiment as a result of missing the debate, being interviewed by Dbanj. As for the Northern vote, Nassarawa, Niger, FCT, part of Plateau cannot go the way of Jonathan. Leave the whole of North west to Buhari, give Adamawa to Ribadu and Jonatha in the whole of the North East, the rest to Buhari.

South West, forget it, Jonathan cannot win it. SS and SE is his sure bet and that is why he is not bothered going there again. he has been chasing North and South West.

But kudos, you have done well

aletheia:

@Danjohn: interesting how your model agrees closely with mine. I took a slightly different approach as you can see from the attached spreadsheet.

P.S. I used your initial model as a starting basis.

honeric01:

^^^^^

I love the way you people underestimated Buhari chances in the SW, In Lagos alone, he's going to get a VERY massive number of votes because of us on NL are based in Lagos.

Same with Ogun state

Same with Osun and Oyo state, just bookmark this page.

Buhari is going to get more than 30% in Lagos, more than 40% in Ogun state, More than 20% in Osun state and more than 30% in Oyo state, watch and see.


Don't forget that he's running with a Yoruba man widely known both in Lagos and Ogun state.

efisher:

Wow! You did a lot of work here. Well done.

danjohn:

Why did you do away with using 2003 as a base for measuring Buhari's support in the North?

TNUBU4LIFE:

I know most people here dont understand the politics of SW,we vote en bloc in the SW!Nobody splits votes except by rigging.If buhari or gej would do well in the west,I dont need to be told or convinced.Politics require structure,a buhari that does not have even a single prominent politician of southern extraction in the south/southwest is the person that you think will win votes in the south/south west.In the southwest,there are genuine political leaders that tell people who to vote for!So far,Buhari has not even come close to reckoning,so many people dont even recall his name!despite,he was a former head of state!.
The political leaders like Tinubu will determine who most people will vote for in the SW,he is the only person that has successfully dealt with obasanjo in Nigeria.he has spoken,IT IS RIBADU,luckily Ribadu is marketable,so he Tinubu played his political card well.
If you think I am wrong about Buhari or gej's chances in the SW,pls just pause a second,imagine what could happen to the political chances of gej or buhari in the SW if Tinubu wakes up tomorrow and tell yoruba people to vote any of the two, your guess is as good as mine.
These two guys are still outsiders in the SW!

Wadeoye:

Hi All,

Under estimate Buhari in South West at your on detriment. I just returned from Osun state (my home state) - even with CPC not present and not doing any campaign at the moment, a lot of people have made up their mind to vote for Buhari because they know him very well. PDP/ACN members are the ones helping us to paste Buhari posters across Ede and Oshogbo as we speak and they are asking that we come and play jingles, etc on the state Radio. Most of them will vote for their party at the Senate, etc but for president, they will vote for Buhari.

ACN is the only problem that Buhari may have - them being the ruling party and Osun state being a state where people depend on government for survival. So, majority will vote for whatever lie Tinubu asks Aregbesola to tell the people.

Now Lagos, most of the people that will vote differently in the coming guber and presidential elections will vote for Buhari. Who says Lagos people like Jonathan because of his name? Are you telling me that Lagos people are mumu who will vote just because of somebody's name? You guys must be joking. Whoever tells you in Lagos he is voting for Jonathan because of his name is a PDP member or a PDP supporter? I don't believe Lagos people are that unintelligent to be carried away be name - it is only the PDP members that fall in the category of unintelligent people. And how many are they in Lagos? It is difficult to assess Buhari in the SW until he campaigns here - I am hoping he will do that before the election. Before Buhari started his campaign in the north, majority of our internet worriors were saying Jonathan will win NE, NC and will get 50% in NW. But now that we have seen what the people of the north want, PDP is jittery. Jonathan can't sleep again and he is now going about with N500m to bribe the emirs. Nobody expected what we saw in Jos today - it is a signal that mojority of Nigerian wants change.

TNUBU4LIFE:

This election will shock people.I see a close replica of the 1979 election likely happening.
pdp may likely get the numerical advantage as you can not completely discount the power of incumbency and their existing political structures.
Buhari and Ribadu will come very close but Ribadu will have the advantage of political spread.Either of the two will go therefore go into runoff with gej,pdp will go to court and get another legal genius like Richard Akinjide to delay the runoff while they entrench themselves more.How well they succeed in doing this depend on the vigillance and unity of the opposition.At the end,the court will declare a run-off and the real battle starts all over.
Now ask yourself.Would a Buhari be needing a Ribadu ACN or vice versa,your guess is as good as mine.I am a very practical person,Ribadu's party is the greatest threat to pdp.They have the spread and the experience to be in the opposition and forget whatever they are telling you,NW and SW have deepely entrenched hegemonic bloc systems,they vote enbloc.
Tinubu has the political soul of the yorubas in his hands,he is wise enough to know that he is holding it in trust,he would,I repeat,he would never squander it!
As I predicted,I told you guys that as the election approaches,you will see the big masquerades in yorubaland coming out more boldly to endore tinubu's political decisions then you will know that he is not alone afterall.
The Alaafin has declared for the ACN despite that there is a sitting pdp governor,Prof Wole Soyinka has endorsed Ribadu and you will get the message.These are the people behind tinubu afterall,they are the people who will tell people who to vote in yorubaland.Ribadu will have a clean sweep in yorubaland except if you dont know the yorubas.Despite there is a yoruba deputy for buhari,still his kite cant fly in yorubaland.We hate all these conservative politics of the old NPC,NPN,PDP/CPC!