₦airaland Forum

Boyewu:
From 1999 till date PDP has never won Yobe state in NE

You are right.

I forgot about that state.

The Boko plagued Yobe is a hotbed of radical islamists.

They voted against the Christian Obasanjo and voted Buhari whom they saw as a more pious Muslim than Yaradua .
And repeated same in 2015 and 2019.

So it maybe down to purely religious considerations for those ones.

That means Atiku may stand a better chance that Tinubu - a Yoruba Muslim

Let's wait and see.

To explain further to the DisObidient mob how the SS has never factored ethnicity in voting but has put party considerations above everything else , here is a glance of their voting history:

1999
SS votes overwhelmingly for a Yoruba man, Olusegun Obasanjo under the PDP structure .

2003
SS votes same Obasanjo

2007
SS votes Yaradua, a Fulani of the PDP

2011
SS votes GEJ an Ijaw under the PDP

2015
SS votes GEJ again

2019
SS votes Atiku , a Fulani under the PDP banner.

The SS has historically hedged her bets on a national candidate who will advance their cause.

They jettisoned Awolowo and Azikiwe in 1979 whom they saw as ethnic champions in preference to a Shagari who they saw clearly before hand would win the elections with their support.

So don't expect anything to change because of an IPOB backed candidate or a Tinubu who brought in the disaster known as Buhari and who went overboard in attacking their son when he was president.

The SS will be voting to payback Tinubu for his role in removing GEJ and also voting to remind the Igbo of their place when it comes to the SS.

So in conclusion , this is my predicted outcome for the 2023 elections.

SW - APC win

SS - PDP win

SE - LP win

MB - PDP win

NE - PDP win

NW- PDP win

Overall results:

PDP win with 4 out of 6 regions

APC second place (no consolation prizes tho)

LP: a distant third place .

ThrownBack:
After shettima has turned his machines against PDP in the North East, they will cancel themselves out here for LP to have a decent harvest from the youths of rhe NE.

Stop deluding yourself .

NW
This is now the region with the most anti APC mood.

A region which fervently supported and voted for Buhari and stood by him expecting him to "change" has come to be the region that has swung like a pendulum to the opposite direction.

Insecurity, economic hardship has seen this region come to detest the APC with a passion.

The region has vowed to vote out the APC.

The APC will however do their usual rigging in Kaduna and disenfranchisement of the Christian southern parts for sake that their campaign DG is El Rufai but it will be in vain.

APC will successfully rig Kaduna .

States like Kano, Katsina, Kebbi Zamfara , Sokoto and Niger reeling under APC sponsored terrorism will vote massively for the PDP.

Obi gets zilch.

They are not going to waste their vote on one charlatan that knows only how to do mouth salad.

ThrownBack:
The North should also learn good governance from Peter obi insha Allah

We didn't hear of his good governance record up till he declared to run.

So please save us the BS.

NE

Other than Bornu where Shettima will have to win to prove his worth, the entire region is going to Atiku.

Bornu will see APC win with a slight majority of at least 60%.

The rest of the region will vote Atiku.

Obi gets zilch here

Middle-Belt
Atiku all the way.

The only state APC would have a good showing would have been Kwara but Saraki is back in town and he will deliver his state.

Atiku gets a minimum of 85% votes here with the APC clinching the rest.

ThrownBack:
Because buharri rigging machinery also worked in 2015 and 2019.

They learnt from Azikiwe how to stuff the ballot

ThrownBack:
Using hate to do analysis will always make you sound myopic

That's the hard reality .

If you don't like what people say that does not mean it is hate directed at you.

We just pray you people accept the results in good faith and not start another one of your foolishness .

ThrownBack:
What you allege to have happened in 1979 could also have happened in 2015 and 2019.

.

You said Anambra had more votes than Kano back then and I said it was Azikiwe's rigging machine at work.

What is bringing 2015/2019 rigged elections for Buhari info the discuss?

SE

Obi all the way.

Ebonyi state governor has said he will not support Obi so expect some rigging there in favour of Atiku because the Governor who had pledged to support Tinubu after the convention is seeing signs that Tinubu will not get the much needed northern votes.

Hope will also do same but for Tinubu .

At the end, Obi wins the region with at least 95% votes.

ThrownBack:
And Buhari didn't stuff the ballot boxes in the North in 2015 and 2019?

Bros stop deflecting, let's face the figures in front of us.

Was buhari on the ballot in 1979?

Creeknigga:
Sorry to say; you myopic.
In 2019, Buhari never got 25% of vote in most south east states but got 25% in all south south states except Rivers state.
So, which region is pro-PDP?

Go and check results again and see how you osus gave Buhari more votes than the SS.

It is for this reason the PDP jettisoned the SE running mate and came to see the SE as more of a liability .

SW

Ekiti APC majority of at least 90%. Atiku gets the remaining. Obi will not get zilch

Ondo
This state has always gone against mainstream Yoruba politics in preference to national appeal. The PDP structure on ground is very strong but we can consider Ondo as one of the major swing states in Nigeria.

The Fulani menace has however reared anti northern sentiments and the state is at the centre of Yoruba seccesionist movement.

It will be extremely difficult to say how Ondo results will swing but I will give it to Tinubu who will win with a comfortable margin. Atiku and the PDP may poll up to 20% . Obi gets zilch.

Osun
With an incoming PDP governor, this state will be a battle ground with the elections being a replay of the gubernatorial elections which the APC will be baying for blood.

Tinubu will win the state with a considerable margin but Atiku may pull a surprise of at least 25% of the votes.

Oyo

With a PDP governor in place , the PDP will do well but lose owing to tribal sentiments being fueled by both the Tinubu and Obi camp.

I see the result pattern similar to Osun.

Ogun
This is one of the states Tinubu is sure to clinch with a resounding victory like in Ekiti.

APC will get at least 90% of the votes here.

Obi gets zilch.

Lagos
Being Tinubu's stronghold, I see him winning it hands down but not without his usual deployment of thugs, ballot snatching and voter disenfranchisement in areas where there are high Igbo concentrations.

One can even say that igbos will be intimidated before the elections proper not to come out and vote.

I am giving Lagos to Tinubu with at least 85% win. Obi may get at least 5% here .

Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom and Cross River

I have lumped these states together because they have a very strong PDP structure on ground with no ethnic affiliation to any of the candidates.

That said, they will be voting PDP as usual because of the PDP structure on ground.

Even in Rivers , with Wike at daggers end with Atiku's camp, the PDP in the state will not follow him to wherever he wants to decamp to for they risk having their structures dismantled if the likes of Tinubu wins who will want to supplant the APC over the PDP leadership.

With no structure on ground, Obi's Labour party has zero chances here.

Attending already pre gathered church halls or filling town halls is not a sign of massive support as his minions will like to tell us.

The results will see Atiku clinch the votes in these states with a wide margin of at least 90% just as he did in 2019.

Tinubu will do woefully here. Obi may see his first significant votes outside the SE in places like Rivers but this will be in the tens of thousands and not enough to secure the 1/3 .

Delta

The Itsekiri who make up at least 20% population of the state will vote APC owing to their Yoruba heritage and also because of Tinubu's wife being an Itsekiri.

The rest of the state will vote massively for PDP. The Igboid parts of Delta north will vote Atiku over Okowa. Obi gets zilch

Results will be: PDP win with at least 70-80% of the votes.

Edo

Oshiomole's Akoko-Edo Yoruba region will vote massively for APC.
This APC will get votes in other parts of the state but this won't be enough to win the state.

Atiku will carry the state with a slight margin of 55-60% against APC which will poll at least 45%.

Obi is going nowhere and will be lucky if he gets votes in the hundreds.

ThrownBack:
If you check those statistics very well, I will make the following observations;

Anambra had more voters than Kano. (Before states creation when the two states were divided.

Azikiwe was a master of rigging , and he knew the only place he could have a good result was his east, so he inflated the results . This does not mean he didn't win the SE but that he stuffed the ballot to inflate his votes

Already we are noticing how the SW and SE have reduced the presidential contest to their usual regional pissing contest and will be voting purely on ethnic sentiments.

For those who think the SS is for their Agbado master or their Pinocchio IPOB replacement candidate , lest I remind you that the SS has been the only region that has been consistently voting the PDP since 1999 without ethnic sentiments.

It is for this reason that Atiku went for a SS running mate and jettisoned the disastrous liability SE option of 2019 which got the usual voter apathy they are known for.

But we are now seeing how the SE has rallied round the same running mate to Atiku in 2019. All this because , Obi, whom the SE showed lacklustre enthusiasm for in 2019 is now running as a substantive presidential candidate.

So we are seeing an ethnic dimension in the frenzied support of Obi supporters who are 99.9999% Igbo and the SW is responding to this by voting the Yoruba candidacy of Bola Tinubu.

At the end, the SW and SE will vote on ethnic grounds while Atiku will sweep the votes in the north, middle bent and SS just as Shagari did in 1979.

You idiots can keep dragging each other and reduce the elections to your usual dik measuring contest.

The 1979 result below should guide you on how Atiku will win the elections

All the useless osus have ran away

It should be obvious by now that these Obidient zombies are mad.

Resorting to meme magic as a last resort is the height of a lack of counter argument.

Jennifer663:
And you need to know how to check yourself before checking others.....

The truth does not care about feelings..

If it hurts, then its 100% factual.

Igbos must learn the truth and accept it as self evident.

Only from there will their repentance and rehabilitation back to Nigerian society be accepted.

But since they refuse to admit the truth and exit in an echo chamber of lies , rehabilitation and reintegration of the Igbo is impossible

vastolord4:
Meeen! You're as twisted as them

That's the origin of Yamri.

Ask any learned Northern historian.

Unlike you savages, the north has a rich archive of docs to source for information on pre Colonial Nigeria.

Northern historians have bagged more PhDs from Ivy league universities for their ressetch and publications because there are tonnes of court and public documents to reference from.. Most literate and educated northerners kept s diary written in Arabic.

One very funny account I read online is of a Kanuri Prince who was addicted to Kola but owing to the Afonja war in Ilorin (a major source of kola nuts back then), there was a major scarcity of kola nuts in the Kanuri empire. The prince lamented how he tried trading two of his best horses for a handful of Kola only to be told by the Hausa merchant that he will only agree to the trade if he threw in his Igbo slave concubine in the deal. He agreed and spent the rest of the diary entry lambasting the Hausa trader as wicked and scrupolous individual whom he swore never to have anything to do with ever again.

Three pages later , he met again with the Hausa merchant for his kola fix but didn't say what he paid for it.

Lol

SU50:
Source??

Here it is

NuclearWinter:
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/features/2020/5/3/survivors-of-nigerias-baby-factories-share-their-stories

Staphylococcus:
PDP is dead already!

Peter Obi has shot PDP in the leg!

Who would want to invest in Atiku knowing he will lose the usual block votes from SE!

Atiku is dead. It’s a walkover for APC!

Coming election will be the fairest election in Nigerian history, cos their is no oppositions.


PDP and LP are just comedians trying very hard to be relevant

Because they jettisoned an Igbo running mate owing to how you are now a political liability.

Pray tell, what of APGA, the Igbo party for hire which Peter Obi used and dumped?

We are waiting to see who they will endorse or have they gotten a yamri candidate?

Yeye

Staphylococcus:
Niger Delta is for Asiwaju!

We don’t hope for the impossible in the region, and we core realist who don’t believe in impossibilities.

We don’t do politics of hate and why we have gotten the presidency at some point!

Niger Delta is already secured in the bag for Asiwaju

Which useless BAT?

Only Itsekiris will vote BAT because of his Itsekiri wife .

Get that clear.

Niger Delta is solidly PDP

GoodLife4live:
See painment..

I tell you.

Igbo van not stand the truth about themselves .

specialmati:
I don't like when people who can't trace their origin,

Lol.

Coming from a Jew wannabe

If I hear who is the true bastard slave race it is you Igbos who one mad man with heriderity insanity will come out from the blue and tell you rubbish lies.

If you truly knew who you are, will you idiots be claiming Jew today and African before sunset?

Osu