Kukutente23: I answered Only that you're too biased and superficial not to see it He was a founding member. That's his contribution or is it not enough until stolen funds are involved?
So that is his contribution. Being a founding member. Then what will you tell OUK that even gave the party 500m. Atiku is a self-centered greedy man.
Elrufai is regretting all these now. He wished he saw the future. The reaction he thought all this will generate especially from Northerners didn't go as planned. He thought he was the next popular person or who the main man that took over from buhari, but he was disappointed. Not even a protest, even other northern politicians don't even discuss about it. He felt the streets would be burning now. He will never forget the day he stepped foot inside Arise TV Studio.. he is on a Long thing...
[quote author=AMINDA post=139774394]If Atiku won Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom in 2023 and got over 25% in Delta, is it in 2027 that he will fail to get 25% in any Southern state? 2023 was more of the "turn of the South" than 2027 will be and this time, Tinubu has been tested and has failed. The PDP structure who were sympathetic to Turaki still exists in those states and they will support Atiku. The Udom bloc in Akwa Ibom still exists and the Deputy governor of Bayelsa refused to decamp until he died under mysterious circumstances. Those bloc of votes are not for Tinubu. Atiku will also get good numbers in at least 2 states in the SW. Besides, once Nigerians see that Atiku has a clear path in emerging with the highest votes cast, a lot more people will flip and vote for him since Tinubu is very unpopular.
Rufai: “With these projections, how many states do you think Atiku Abubakar will win in the 2027 election?”
Dele Momodu: “As I predicted, Atiku will win the majority of the North, and if he is able to compete favourably in the South, it will be over for President Tinubu and…
. Sometimes when I come across your comments, I just laugh and wonder if you are in nursery reciting rhymes. The vote he Atiku got was because of these govs in PDP den, which Atiku happens to be their candidate. Dem no even born any of they people you mentioned to even hold just a poster of Atiku, talk more of asking them to vote him. Even ADC ihedioha will be hiding to campaign for Atiku in his Mbaise.
LeoAj: In Naija politics, the most dangerous opposition ticket is never the one that looks the strongest on paper.
It is the one that covers the specific geography of your vulnerability.
Tinubu knows exactly where he is vulnerable. He has been looking at those maps since the night of February 25, 2023, when the results came in and he saw the states he barely survived, the states he lost outright, and the states where his margins were thin enough that a different opposition combination could have erased them entirely.
He has thirty-one governors. He has 10.9 million party members who voted in a primary. He has federal resources and the full machinery of incumbency.
But he does not have the South-South. He does not have the northern Christian bloc. And he does not fully own the North-East or North-West in the way he owned them in 2023 with Buhari's endorsement behind him.
Now, with the Atiku-Amaechi ticket reportedly confirmed and an announcement expected from the ADC imminently, two men who know each of those vulnerabilities personally are standing on the same platform pointing directly at them.
The AA ticket is born. And Tinubu's campaign team needs to stop dismissing the opposition and start reading the electoral map more carefully.
How The Man Who Said He Would Never Play Second Fiddle Finally Played Second Fiddle
Let us acknowledge the backstory because it is too good to skip.
Amaechi obtained his N90 million ADC presidential nomination form. He said, on camera, that nobody had ever told him to be vice president because they knew his worth and what his reaction would be.
He contested the primary. He got 504,117 votes to Atiku's 1,846,370. He called the result concocted. He boycotted the declaration.
He said he would never play second fiddle.
Then Atiku visited him at his residence. Amaechi did not come to the gate.
Then Amaechi visited Atiku at his residence. He came through the gate.
A very close ally of Amaechi, speaking to The Guardian, explained how the change happened: "VP nominee would have extensive roles to play in the campaigns and government." Highly placed political leaders from both the North-West and South-South reportedly applied sustained pressure on Amaechi to accept the offer, arguing that the combination gave the ADC its best chance of threatening Tinubu.
The development was confirmed on Saturday by the immediate past ADC chairman in Rivers State, Leader Sampson, who said Amaechi had accepted the vice-presidential slot.
The man who would never play second fiddle is now in the second seat.
The satirical observation has been made elsewhere in these pages. But the strategic observation deserves its own moment.
Because Amaechi accepting the VP slot, with all the noise and contradiction it contains, is actually the most mature political decision he has made since 2022. He looked at the electoral map. He ran his own numbers. He understood that his best path to national relevance and eventual presidency runs through a credible 2027 campaign as VP. And he swallowed the pride.
That is not weakness. In Naija politics, knowing when to subordinate your ego to strategic reality is the rarest skill available. Most politicians never find it.
Amaechi found it in June 2026. And it may be the most consequential decision of this election cycle.
THE SOUTH-SOUTH CALCULATION: WHERE TINUBU'S REAL PROBLEM BEGINS
Let us go straight to the number that matters most.
In 2023, the South-South geopolitical zone produced the following presidential results:
Tinubu got 1,427,584 votes from the entire South-South region. Peter Obi got 1,127,123. Atiku got 1,177,980.
Tinubu won the South-South narrowly in aggregate, but his margin was paper thin. In Rivers State, he got 280,762 votes to Atiku's 175,467 and Obi's 175,071. Delta gave him 244,966 to Obi's 177,967 and Atiku's 199,559. Bayelsa gave him 105,786.
Join Ourpalaver now to get the best stories in Nigeria
You just wrote rubbish from beginning to end. When I knew it was shitt is when you said Tinubu won in the South South. Below are there scores
Peter Obi (LP) — 1,210,675 votes (42.37%) Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC) — 799,957 votes (27.99%) Atiku Abubakar (PDP) — 717,908 votes (25.12%) Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (NNPP) — 17,167 votes (0.60%) Other candidates combined — 111,933 votes (3.92%)
Also why he Atiku was able to even get that score was because he was PDP and they had Govs of Edo, Delta, akwaibom, bayelsa. But now if he gets up to half of 2023 score, then he is lucky.
indemnityy: Whether you vote for Obi or not, bandit will not kidnap Obi, kill him or demand Ramson.
Allow religion and tribalism beclouded your sense of reasoning.
Whether you like it or not, Obi is the only candidate that save you from bandit, Boko Haram and other criminalities. He will revive the economy.
Vote with sentiment and suffer more.
Whether your obi or Tinubu or Atiku or sowore wins. Bandits will never stop killing and kidnapping, other crimes will never disappear. So leave all those emotions at home.
Jailed and betrayed El Rufai Insulted BUHARI after his Death Arrested and jailed Malami
We know ...
No shaking Tinubu....2027...you must campaign in the North na..atleast people will see who they want to vote for...abi?
U didn't tell us elrufai and malami are both placenta of the North. Yet he insulted buhari and his son is contesting under same Tinubu's APC, wetin do ADC. U go dey alright last las
Validated: Stop consoling yourself, go and check why Zamfara had no candidate that year. APC is done, Wike is done. Go to Supreme Court sir and stop yanning opata on NL. Cinda, Amaefule and all the assembly men are returned to PDP by default as their defection are INVALID.
I like as Una dey create una own happiness. So asiwaju will let a chairman loyal to amaechi who is not in APC take charge.
Memphis357: You think say if I die now, people go jubilate?
Una go just dey make mockery of unaselves. Given, the mood of the country, there will be a huge euphoria of joy if Tinubu should die now.
Die first make we see. U think say na everyone like you. Same way many will celebrate, others will mourn him. Even Jesus got lovers and haters, same as Satan.
Memphis357: Nyesom Wike..... the kind joy and jubilation wey go dey on ground following the announcement of your death eheeeeeeen...... June 8th, 1998 go be child's play.
And after the jubilation, Una weh jubilate no go die. Immortals
Watch moment Peter Obi announced the former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, as his presidential running mate for the 2027 general elections on the NDC platform after he (Peter Obi) was affirmed as the Presidential Candidate.
Politicstoday: I have post the details of the electoral acts here.
If a person withdraws from his party’s primary election (or leaves before emergence as candidate), the law does not expressly say “you can never join another party.” PLACNG But under the 2026 Act, parties must submit their membership register to INEC before primaries, and only eligible members in that process can be voted for under party nomination rules. That means moving late to another party may make lawful nomination difficult or impossible depending on timing and compliance. Credit: PLACNG So the practical answer is: Yes, a politician may withdraw and contest under another party only if he legally qualifies under that new party’s nomination process and INEC requirements.
Hope for Fubara to move to any party of his choice to contest for governorship election.
The law also covers for membership, that was why the membership register was submitted earlier before the primaries. So his name only appeared in the register of APC as a member and not in another party. He is free to join any party, but won't be able to contest. Capeesh?
Linzo: The NW and NE know quite well that Tinubu will never return power to them, but will rather install a Yoruba man from the North Central, which will be of no benefit to them. So, because of this reason, both regions have resolved that they will never vote for Tinubu in 2027.
When I see some keyboard warriors sprouting this narrative to give themselves hope, I keep laughing at them. You’ve seen both regions publicly denouncing Tinubu; it’s for a reason.
Lol. Una don start una rubbish permutations again. Even ur obi is likely to Lose SS while trying to win NC.
So anyone thinking that the NW or NE will vote for Tinubu come 2027 is living in a fool’s paradise.
As for the North Central, Obi already locked down Nasarawa, Benue, Abuja, and Plateau, and will have a good outing in Kogi. But as for Kwara, I don’t know — it’s left for them to choose between failure, kidnapping killings, banditry, or light.
Freshtruth: OGA go NDC now stop this eye service wey u dey do for Tinubu na once man dey die, if u like do eye service for tinubu for now till tomorrow he will still support wike over u any time any day. Wike done deliverer he state before something ameachi can't do for buhari 2015 wike did it 2023.
Wike na big asset for tinubu o he singlehandedly gave Tinubu port Harcourt votes so bro Fubara better align with NDC now the people will vote u sir. The more you still staying at Apc the more easier for wike to tender your agreement before the APC stake holders
Untill Dem play u ur tape. U go calm down. Una own na to dey push am to hell.
AMINDA: The difference will be the 5.6m Northern votes that Northerners gave Tinubu after Obi humiliated him in the South. It no longer exists.
Lol. I hope you are not counting in NC votes in Northern votes, because only time you all remember they are northerners is during election, when it comes to appointment you call them Yoruba and the rest.
carzeem1: Atiku will inherit a chunk of Buhari's Northern support, he has a strong reach in North east and always delivers most of the states there.
Also since Buhari is gone, Northwest is open for taking by either atiku or kwankwaso (most popularNorthern politician today). Tinubu will make do with what his APC governors can galvanise for him.
Tinubu will win SW and NC Atiku- NE and NW Obi- SS and SE.
Tinubu will come second in all zones he doesn't win. All the votes gotten by Atiku in the South were majorly because of PDP structure. He will lose 70% of them. Because there will be no top Member to support him. The SE will be more angrier at him for pushing obi out of ADC. Screenshot this
Akpakomiza2: He can't have a decent performance in north central. He can win north east and west but won't sweep. He will have a disastrous outing down south. Tinubu will have more votes than him
Leave him. He don analyze the election for em house finish. So Atiku will have a clean sweet in NE and NW with the likes of top leaders of APC like Shettima, wammako, yari etc. but Tinubu won't have a clean sweep in SW because their is Seyi and Aregbesola. 🤣
AMINDA: No one wants Obi to leave the ADC more than Sam Amadi. He wants to contest the Imo gubernatorial elections and is hoping to ride on Obi's wave. Atiku has not hidden his ambition to be president and he hasn't offered anyone the VP slot against their will. He's ready to face anyone in the direct primaries and will absolutely not be stepping down for any candidate. Whoever wants to decamp from the ADC is at liberty to do so.
It's 2015 all over again and a new platform is being built but one region appears to be resistant again. If the Southeast fail to grab a stake in this new party that is painstakingly being built, Seyi Makinde will do so on behalf of the Southwest. If they succeed and begin to reap the dividends, we wouldn't want to hear talks of marginalisation.
Lol. And the southwest will leave presidency for VP position. Even seyi makinde go shock from votes he go receive. Is South or Nothing.
Samuel Anyawu and the rest that were suspended was upheld by the Supreme Court. All their actions taken are unlawful. Wike and his gang has lost out. Bot led by Sen Adolphus Wabara now in charge.
Go inec portal go comot Dem name now. Shebi na inec go conduct the election.
AMINDA: Lol. Story for the gods. The Seyi-allied BOT led by Adolphus Wabara just released a statement assuming leadership of the party. Wike has been cut to size and this was what Tinubu intended!
Politics › Re: Tinubu Is Not A Prefect To Governors, Hold Them Accountable - Bwala by Otamendi99(m): 2:47pm On Jun 23
