₦airaland Forum

Okay sir, but are you a diasporan?

Can you get us the remittance for the past 3 years to check if there is significant change?

Those in Nigeria are even savings in dollars, but you think is those in abroad that will keep their money in naira because of 20+ interest rate that will wipe out by inflation & FX risk.

atigro:
You need to catch up with the reality. You dont have an idea how the diasporan's are impacting Nigeria economy positively. The japa effect is on full gear and its rewards is dripping in gradually. This new crop of Nigerians came prepared. Real estates, banks,fmcg,transports,TB,funds with institutional investors etc. Infact the current uncertainty in immigration is making every diasporan apprehensive and making them make wise decisions. No more unnecessary frivolities.
Diasporan remittances is not a joke because the way people are working their ass out is on an unprecedented level. So it's beyond "survival money" okay. Stop playing!

I don't post to win an argument but to pass a message, I intentionally delete that because I know it will move to another side of argument but since you read it someone already replied it I will explain for you to understand.

Like you said the person will send in £100 does it mean the person has increase the money sent home? No is only the naira value that increase due to devaluation. Pre 2022, diasporans send in FX but now they do currency swap among themselves instead of sending FX home. Mr A need 1m naira to send to people in Nigeria, he will post on different WhatsApp groups and give someone who has naira to swap his pounds. By doing that the FX inflow to Nigeria won't improve, it just recirculation of naira. The worst he will do is to go to Lemfi and other Fintech app to sell. How many people do you see on western Union desk in the bank unlike before?

You said prices of land are going up because diasporans are rushing it. No sir, land prices are going up due to devaluation and general inflation. I can tell you that people who japa in 2021 & early 2022 to the UK are now at the stage of getting mortgage, some are even selling their houses in Nigeria to use for mortgage deposit, this is fact I don't do guess talk.

On Unilever, looking at the P&L of the Q3 reports you will say the company did better, but I don't just look at that, 2023 result wasn't okay majorly due to the loss on discontinued operations, if you check their cash flow you will a significant drop in their liquidity, check the current assets there is a significant increase in trade receivable and inventories, also their current liabilities has grown with over 33% those are not a good signs for me. Don't just look at P&L to judge a company performance. In corporate finance liquidity is key. Other manufacturing companies are yet to release Q3, but their Q2 is worse. My point goes back to the fact that if the economy doesn't improve manufacturers will suffer more. If purchasing power of the people keep going down, crime rate rate will increase, we may start seeing warehouses & banks looting.

Streetinvestor2:
You have not answered my two questions
What manufacturers companies
What did you see in Unilever results
You wrote balablu on what you deleted. The people sending money from abroad to nigeria is a big plus as naira loses value.. The person will still send £100 and not 220k.It looks you are falling my hand oh.And people I know sending money from abroad home is for buying real estates mostly land.This is why land prices are sky rocketing in se major cities

Diaspora remittance? 😂

Okay sir

RodgersAkpafu:
I agree with your last paragraph
Cautious optimism should be the balance

Not dark pessimism, or happy go lucky optimism
One factor you should consider is that the diaspora remittances is augmenting the incomes of millions of families in Nigeria
That will definitely have a positive impact (autonomous consumption) in the Nigerian economy.
The multiplier effect of >$25billion annually in Nigeria cannot be understated in any way
I don't know any Nigerian here who is not sending money in one way or the other back to ppl in Nigeria, so that's a thing

Whether that's a good thing or not is another argument, but it is what it is
The consumption pattern of Nigeria defies conventional economic logic, and that is why I still have some sort of optimism despite Bulaba doing bulaba things bulaba style

What of the big ballers in Nigeria?
They will also consume as well na lol

All these your points can only work in an economy where people have a strong purchasing power. How many people can buy malt for 1k in Nigeria? You said the companies have started overcoming their problems as if the only issue is FX. They have increase in energy cost, employee cost, additional taxes like excise duty is about to be introduced. Yet you believe with that companies bottom line will improve. Do you see the recent result of Unilever?

I'm not saying you should accept my view. I only remind you not to be too optimistic because there are so many uncertainties in Nigeria.

Streetinvestor2:
.You are perfectly in order on this statement. The government is so corrupt and useless. All businesses will recalibrate and move on.Some are already showing it in thr q3 results. Unless you are telling me that these businesses are going to close shop.Many will transfer the cost to customers going forward and life goes on.The government is already promising reduction in cooperate tax and other incentives. Companies are already transferring the cost by reducing the quantity in a product and increasing price join.

The stocks you mentioned are already in thr own bear season. So what do anyone else expect to happen in the future when they find thr way out of the main wahala being forex loss.It won't pass next yr and government will allow telecoms to increase tariff. ALL they need now is to cause serious disruption in thr services and blame it on poor revenue to invest in thr infrastructure

Do you think I'm also discussing politics as well? Moreover, political risk also need to be considered in a business environment. I only told the effect of govt policy on oil production. Either realised or unrealised loss, they are obligations that must be fulfilled. The only thing that will make the unrealised loss wipe away is for the rate to go back to what it was which is impossible. A company incurred a $ debt when rate was 700 and now it is over 1,700, by the time they are paying the debt the loss will be realised loss. Most manufacturing company will have negative cash flow next year and some will default in redemption of CP they issued this year.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga I no get time to play politics here.I am talking as I business man with plenty experience. The forex loss you saw from companies are classified into two;realised and unrealised. Going forward they will get out of it via different ways which the company may adopt. It may happen in a year or go beyond. Trade Surplus is when export is more than import. Which is bond to happen. Nigerians are already keying into it to make dollars because of high value it brings home.And importation is decreasing because the goods will be to expensive to sell here.It is happening
already. Everyone is now looking for what to send abroad to earn dollars. Ghana is making heavy money in yam business. Many Nigerians are now moving agricultural produce abroad even vegetables .The cancellation of the ministry will do nothing. The most important thing thr was nddc which has never lived up expectation for the people of the state concerned.
Oga if na politics you dey see.pls ignore my post.i no get that time.
I didn't ask you to invest in the stock market.Go put your money whr makes you comfortable.
How many q3 results have you even checked

Companies will get out of forex losses how? Are Nigerian companies selling their products in dollars? Are you saying the accumulated losses will wipe away automatically? Trade surplus will increase when Nigeria is an import economy, a country that couldn't meet OPEC quota.
I think pipeline vandalism will be on the raise in 2025 with the cancellation of ministry of Niger Delta.

Streetinvestor2:
Come 2025.,the country/economy will be recalibrate to the new reality of fuel prices and exchange rate..Some companies will get out of forex losses via different ways or reduce it.Trade Surplus will increase. I see 2025 as the yr to hammer big in this business if you get your picks right. Some sectors are going to blow big time.
The government will soon free the telecoms and power companies. It will likely happen next yr

Nigerians throw numbers anyhow, governors that were unable to pay 30k will now pay 70k? Very funny. How many states in Nigeria has 2023 budget above 500B ? Very few. He expected companies with dwindling revenue and huge loss to pay big salaries, from where? He need to remember that the more the companies pay more salaries the less their profit which will impact on shareholders' fund. Unfortunately, he is also a shareholder, so NO DIVIDEND for him 😂

KarlTom:
Please where are these trillions coming from...

We now have a tax collector as president, Taiwo Oyedele new tax reform will be implemented which will be strange to the system.
Yes, I agree that Nigerians could act like coward, but you need to remember the COVID-19 palliative looting during Endsars. An hungry man is an angry man. Also remember the unrest in Asia and possible impact it could cause to the world economy if not well managed.
My prayer is for the market to be bullish but we need to consider negative factors also.

Streetinvestor2:
The budget, new tax law,finance bill etc has always existed at different percentage and cannot cause bear.
Then no unrest that will happen because naija man dey fear to die.Then again the country is divided along so many lines so we can never have a single front. The last protest showed it well and it failed.
My dear I am very optimistic because I have been long in the business. Come next yr before q1 results I will pump plenty money into selected sound company. The q3 results and full year results will give a better direction .2025 will be a blast after all this forex loss by many when they come out.It is the bear period for selected stocks that it bartered thr price.

I think it is too early to be too optimistic, so many factors need to be put into consideration e.g Budget, New Tax law, finance bill etc. People's earning capacity has been badly punctured which will affect listed companies products. If the economy trend continues in this manner, there might be unrest in the country, people will be looting warehouse for survival.

Streetinvestor2:
Na even next yr better bull go happen after q1 results because many companies go don survive the forex loss. And effect of recapitalisation by some businesses and banks go begin show for thr books.Then next year go be bull run for some of this insurance companies that have survived, cleaned thr books and met regulatory standards

100% will be easy in some insurance companies trading now at 50/60 kobo with good eps

gamaliel9:
SEC address to report them if my money did not land on tuesday or wednesday?

They have nothing to fear SEC for if their license has been withdrawn. I would advise you just visit their office and display little madness.

chimex38:
Toh...When dem give you date, wise to add your own extension join for peace of mind
#shockabsorber

The Friday is intentional to see market reaction to the result, weekend will give them more time to reflect on the counter.

yMcy56:
UBA
Closed @30.10!
Nice job by the MM

We talk am say if these guys wan move these stocks, dem no need your Kobo Kobo

Seems @Currentprice prediction is already taking effect.......maybe ..

This one na premium market makers

pluto09:
I know they raised capital but I think that is reflected in the issued share but this share premium of a thing is what I don't understand

All shares capital are put in the balance sheet at book value while the excess will be reported in share premium. According to the Q3 account. Japaul issued additional units of 8,000,002,000 shares which generated a premium of 13,960,000,000.

Please note that each shares book value is 50kobo, that is why you see 4B increase in share capital.

designking:
I am planning of removing it from my portfolio. jaizbank is just occupying space no movement or prospect

That's my stock for marginal profit. Ones it drop to 2.15, I pack and dump at 2.40. I'm okay with 12% profit within a month

pluto09:
As you said you be accountant.
Any explanation about japaul gold share premium that moved from 16b + to 30b + effectively turning the negative equity to positive one??

The information has been in the public for a while na

I dey gbadun this UBA closing hour movement

Streetinvestor2:
What is this offshore business. I want to know the sustainability. I hope it is not one time thing. I no get strength to go deaper in the results as I have no holdings thr or intended

It wasn't defined, may be we can get it from their site.

I noticed people started buying big volume today after the the result.

Same thing is happening with Stanbic IBTC.

What is cooking oooo

mikeapollo:
I am speaking from practical experience. I am in the industry and I know what I am talking about!
Say what you know, not what you think or don't know. And don't generalize.
90% is not the same as 100%

Okay Sir, it's not my fault na my profession cause am. I only apply materiality concept sir.

Their major source of Revenue (Dredging) for last year has about 72% drop, but they now have a new Revenue line (Offshore) which is now major source. Hopefully, there will be no improvement in Revenue in the future.

My major concern is their drop in cash flow after disposal of assets and insignificant purchase of assets.

Locotrader:
The result disappointed me though I didn't see it as a bad one.
The improvement in this quarter signals strength going forward.

I need to see the latest shareholding structure.
The accumulations going on in the stock even now is saying a different thing from this result.

I am very much bullish in Japaul and waiting for the next line of action after this consolidations.......

Streetinvestor2:
OK.Then before the holdco can realise results. It gets the results from all sub set of the holdco. So do cbn scrutinise all the results from the sub set or only check that of bank in the holdco

CBN only receive the result of the bank for scrutiny, while the holdco consolidate it with others.

With that banks can not use liquidity of others to boost their cash flow.

JAPAULGOLD has unknown raw gold in it, which is exposed to few people.

yMcy56:
Ikeja Hotels reclaiming lost glory, performed so well.....

JAPAUL still performed well in my opinion....
Those institutional investors accumulating do see much deeper than we can see..
The free float has been highly mopped by some of them......
We see how it goes ........but since you're a long termers, try keep eye on it and possibly buy some.

That is the reason for negative shareholders funds. Na you dey owe the company if it liquidate 😂
Just that they won't ask you to pay because of the letter L in the PLC 😂

megawealth01:
VAWULENCE

You're speaking from assumption, I'm speaking from experience. Consultants includes settlements in their bills self just that it won't be pronounced in the invoice. Na top guys understand that. Like I said this people are like NPF that tell you that bail is free yet your lawyer will pay to bail you. The lawyer won't come out and say he pay for bail too na.
The more you look, the less you see!

mikeapollo:
You are the one that claims to know all, that is why you used the word ''any company''!

The tax authority cannot just slam any nonsense charge on a multinational company with competent tax consultants, especially one of the Big 4 e.g. Deloitte, PWC, E&Y, KPMG etc.
That is why I asked you what type of company you are talking about.
There are many multinational companies, but all of the them are not the same.
Some that I know would rather pay millions of naira as legitimate tax, rather than settle with N300,000

Streetinvestor2:
On another note.Pls what is the difference now that they are becoming holdco and then

Before every other companies were under the banks, but now the banks are under the Holdco. The CBN is only concern about the banks, but before the bank itself is the holdco.

That was why Sanusi insisted that all Banks should divest from other businesses.

Almost all banks has insurance, HMO, stocbroking, Finances houses, real estates etc then.

emmanuelewumi
post=132585376:
Na the conduit pipe used in wrecking quoted companies

Okay sir, I no wan argue with you since you work in all the multinationals.

Do you know that there are different taxes? Tax authority will just slam you nonsense charge just to extort you even when you're doing the right thing. They are like NPF. Most companies hate distraction from them so they may feel it's cheaper and stress free than going through litigation. For instance you need tax clearance to get funding of 10B through CP and one useless man said you're not compliant to extort you 5m, will you take tax regulatory to court for such when you have pending projects, knowing the time frame for court cases in Nigeria?

Enjoy your weekend

mikeapollo:
I know many multinational companies that do not settle. They defend their transactions, sue the FIRS if they come up with unreasonable assessments or they pay their obligations in full if they are convinced.

Your choice of word is what is causing the issue: you cannot just say ''any'' or ''every'' because you don't know all and you have not seen all. Just say they ones you have seen or known!

emmanuelewumi:
You no suppose to dey give unsolicited counsel. Experience is the best teacher

I know, just for those who will gain from it ni.

Intercompanies is the middleman for major shareholders to cheat other stakeholders

Liabilities greater than Assets 😂

emmanuelewumi:
Same scenario is applicable to your beloved company

How many TAX Audit have you witness? You are sounding as if you're not a Nigerian. Most tax audit with issue is either the company don't want to settle or vested interest in the case or the settle went to the wrong place.
Can you as a shareholder have access to company ledgers ?
Auditors will reach a compromise at a point once the company can provide the some documents to cover themselves for negligence except if the going concern of such company is under threat which will make them to disclose it in the auditors report.

Remember auditors are also in business and they will want to retain their clients.

mikeapollo:
This is what you said: ''Any company that has so many intercompany transactions is a fraudulent company/''
The meaning of what you said is ''every company that has so many intercompany transactions is a fraudulent company''
But I am telling you that it is not accurate. You may say that all the companies that you know that have so many intercompany transactions are fraudulent companies, but you cannot use a sweeping generalized word like ''any'' or ''every'' company.

And how do you mean by ''you cannot get the ledgers because AFS is summary''?
The ledgers are in the accounting system or ERP and you must provide the ledgers and official background documentation, explanations, schedules etc. to auditors and investigators from e.g. FIRS, external auditors, internal auditors etc. when they come for audit and investigation. Your failure to provide these could lead to penalties and interests in hundreds of millions and possibly billions of naira (because most of the transactions are in foreign currency e.g. dollars or euros)

I don't know the kind of companies that you know.
But I know many organizations that have many intercompany transactions and they are not fraudulent.
For instance, what some of them do is to take advantage of favourable tax regimes (tax avoidance) and forex availability in different countries, e.g. tax avoidance is not fraudulent, but tax evasion is fraudulent.

What I am saying is an open truth that is known to all professionals in the accounting and audit industry globally!

We Nigerians should stop the mentality of thinking that every person or company that we meet is corrupt or a thief.
It worsens the image that we create of ourselves

ghm:
... and submit the report as at when due. That is not so difficult, don't we have hundreds of company doing exactly that?

Most companies that do that always have incomplete records and have issues with auditors who know their work because they will always ask for source documents which are not available. Tell me where you will get source documents for money collected by CEO to flex with his girlfriend or family on sea in a yatch which is outside the approved allowance and he asked you to book it to intercompany transactions. Although the auditor will later allow them for somethings but they will tell them to do some documentations which they will use as a cover if it backfire which they will cause delay in AFS concnclusion.

A criminal always leave a trace!

Do you think I'm talking about Oando? I'm addressing the issue someone raised about CFO, most problems are from the CEO & Board. The CFO do exactly what they want and they make his job difficult especially from a gangster MD who doesn't listen to professional advise on treatment of transactions because all they care is to meet their objective at that point in time.

They believe they understand everything about accounting because they one year MBA in a business school. Forgetting that accounting is double entry principle if you dress your account to avoid tax, it will affect you when it comes to corporate finance because your books won't look fine to attract investors, also if you dress your books to attract investors, you will have to pay big tax. You can't eat your cake and have it.

ghm:
... and submit the report as at when due. That is not so difficult, don't we have hundreds of company doing exactly that?

phadriz:
It is Creative Accounting (Window dressing). For you to know the extent of the fraud, check intercompany payable and receivable. You will discovered that most of the group funds are stock there. Unfortunately, you can not get the ledgers because AFS is summary.
Talking about principles all will be done in line with Accounting principles, but most fraudulent transactions are hidden there. All what you said are theory.

This is my field I know what I'm talking about.

For instance Company A is a listed company and can get a product from Company Z (an external company) at 3m, the major owner of company A have a company called company D and give company A 20% holdings there to establishrelationshipin the group. Company A will pay Company D for the product upfront at 4m, then company D will buy it from company Z at 3m to supply company A. Anytime the major owners of the listed company (A) needs money they collect it and ask the finance to book it against company D interco.
The staff of company A will be the same staff running company D, yet they will be booking fictitous expenses in company D. They will get one hungry mushroom auditor who can dance to their tune to audit company D