The wicked politics Tinubu played against Gej in 2015 will haunt him the rest of his life.
You see, you don't rise by pulling down Ur brother.
Now the North can decide to keep the seat and nothing anyone can do bcoz of one Man foolishness.
Let him go and rest bcoz that ambition is dead.

Why Bola Tinubu lost the 2023 presidential election

JANUARY 17, 2022

In his article, “Osinbajo’s Road to Abuja: The Untold Story,” Olawale Olaleye told how Osinbajo ‘defeated’ Bola Tinubu to become Muhammadu Buhari’s vice-presidential candidate.

According to the story, early in 2015, as soon as Buhari became the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu set up a committee to come up with a way to justify to the nation his inevitable choice as Buhari’s running mate. That was because the Buhari-Tinubu ticket would have imposed Muslim-Muslim candidates on Nigeria. One of the committee members was Yemi Osinbajo, the current Vice President of Nigeria. As the story went, Osinbajo expressed to the committee members that it would be difficult for him to go back to his constituency and explain the potential Muslim-Muslim ticket. Osinbajo’s discontent got to Bola Tinubu, and he held it as a grudge against his former Attorney-General when he was the governor of Lagos State.

While this was going on, Muhammadu Buhari’s committee set up to shortlist his possible Vice Presidential candidates arrived at three names. One of the names was Yemi Osinbajo. When Buhari took the three names to Bola Tinubu to give him the honor of picking one in recognition of his contribution to Buhari’s campaign, Tinubu flared up when he did not see his name on the list. In the intriguing negotiations and permutations that followed, despite Bola Tinubu’s initial rejection, Osinbajo ended up as the Vice Presidential candidate of Buhari instead of Tinubu.

That was how Tinubu lost out in his quest to be Buhari’s running mate in 2015. Of course, if Bola Tinubu had been Vice President for the last six years, a different conversation would be going on in Nigeria today.

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Now, here is how Tinubu will lose out in his quest to become the President of Nigeria in 2023.

Undoubtedly, amongst those who have declared their interest in running for president in the 2023 election, Bola Tinubu is the most formidable. It was not a secret that he had nursed the ambition of being president since he left the governorship of Lagos State in 2007. He has invested a lot of political capital in building a humongous political structure across Nigeria. As the political season opens up, he hopes to deploy all his resources to attain his ultimate political goal.

The troubles with Bola Tinubu’s candidacy are enormous. Some are within his control, while others are not. No candidate for the presidency of Nigeria has ever come into the campaign with much political baggage as Tinubu, not even Muhammadu Buhari.

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We can find in three folds everything wrong with Muhammadu Buhari in Bola Tinubu. In 2015, there was the myth that Buhari’s abbreviated performance in 1984 as the military Head of State was what Nigeria needed. We cannot say the same about Tinubu. Nobody can say that Tinubu’s abysmal performance as governor in Lagos State from 1999 – 2007 displayed any spark of brilliance that can make a dent in Nigeria’s precarious situation today. In 2015, some thought Buhari was disciplined. In 2022, everyone knows that Tinubu is not disciplined. In 2015, some saw Buhari as incorruptible. In 2022, everyone knows Tinubu as the epitome of bullion-van-level corruption in Nigeria. In 2015, some looked at Buhari as healthy and agile. In 2022, everyone knows Tinubu is ill and sluggish. In 2015, some perceived Buhari as someone that commanded respect within military circles. In 2022, everyone knows that the only military wings that respect Tinubu are the touts, alayes and the area boys.

Unlike Buhari, who had several opportunities to try, Tinubu has just one chance – 2023. It is a do-or-die situation for him. He has no second chance. If he doesn’t win, he goes home without fulfilling his dream. That puts tremendous pressure on the man.

So, we expect a vigorous campaign from Bola Tinubu. And as the first week of his one-shot campaign shows, it won’t be an easy ride for the self-described “kingmaker” who wants to be a king.

The self-inflicted personal baggage of Tinubu is well known to all. His inability to present a straight biography is one of them. Nothing about him is straightforward – his age, his name, his certificates, his schools (primary, secondary, university), his parents, his source of wealth, the state of his health, his ever-changing ideology, etc. Even his classmates are unknown. At least, Buhari has been taking pictures with his secondary school classmates as proof that he went to secondary school.

Though possession of a crooked biography has never stopped anyone from being the president of Nigeria, the case of Tinubu is so egregious. They are coming at a point when Nigerians are less tolerant of such character flaws. It does not help that more and more Nigerians are beginning to see the correlation between such flaws and the performance of the bearer, as Muhammadu Buhari exemplified. It does not help Tinubu that Nigerians are coming into a new awareness of how personal things affect professional things and how individual faults impact the collective interest of we, the people.

Of course, in Nigeria’s crooked democracy, the people have little say on who will ultimately become their president. The power brokers are the most significant determinants of who will emerge as president.

Here is what is working for Bola Tinubu.

If APC fields Tinubu as its presidential candidate, APC is finished. If APC does not field Tinubu as its presidential candidate, APC is finished. As a result of that reality, APC is trying, but it has not found a way to extricate itself from that quagmire.

In 2015, when Nigeria was still at its innocent stage, Buhari was forced to pick a pastor as his running mate to deflect the perception of him as an Islamist. In almost seven years in office, Buhari’s obscene mismanagement of Nigeria’s diversity raises the stake so high for Bola Tinubu. The heightened ethno-religious tension in Nigeria complicates Tinubu’s life on so many levels.

If Tinubu were to become the presidential candidate of the APC, his first challenge is finding a Vice Presidential candidate that will be satisfactory to Northern leaders. As we have seen in the past, a Northern Christian is not satisfactory to the North as a vice presidential candidate when the presidential candidate is a Southern. It doesn’t matter if the Southern is a Muslim because, in the North, a Southern Muslim is not seen as authentic as a Northern Muslim. The North would rather have a Southern Christian president with a Muslim vice president than a Southern Muslim president with a Northern Christian vice president.

While a Muslim-Muslim ticket could win the presidency in 1993, it was unacceptable in 2015. And that was why Bola Tinubu was not named the Vice President to Buhari then. Buhari’s performance makes it ten times more difficult to sell a Muslim-Muslim ticket to Nigerians in 2023. Of course, Bola Tinubu thinks he can sell it, another indication that he lives in a world of those who have taken mkpurummiri. Tinubu thinks his Southwest base, known to care less about whether their leader is Muslim or Christian, will abide by him. This is so 1993.

But the truth is that the power brokers in the North are not going to take that chance. They instead back another candidate that will not bring about so many complications to their interest. And that is why they are leaving the room for a Northern candidate to be the presidential candidate of the PDP, just in case they need to default to supporting the party in 2023.

Another thing not working for Bola Tinubu is that in northern power circles, nobody trusts him. He is not an Obasanjo. In the past, he had expressed his distaste for one-Nigeria. Coming out of NADECO, he once flirted with the campaign for a radical restructuring of Nigeria in ways the North detests. The bottom line is that Tinubu does not fit into the character that either the North or the South will want for president. No wonder the Southwest-based cultural group, Afenifere quickly disassociated themselves from his campaign for president.

When it is all said and done, history will record that Bola Tinubu used the first part of his life to destroy the last. He was not the first to do so. And he will not be the last. That realization should console him. And irrespective of who becomes the president of Nigeria in 2023, Nigeria would be better off than the country would have been if it were to be Bola Tinubu.

TheCable

Okonkwo teaches Post-Colonial African History at the School of Visual Arts in New York City. He is also the host of Dr. Damages Show. His books include “This American Life Sef”, “Children of a Retired God” among others.

saintrow1:


Prepare to go down with your money oloshi

Say no to thuggery. Osinbajo for president.

Good advice

perez100:
Anybody that vote for Tinubu is the real enemy of Nigeria that wants this country to remain in darkness. A curse will be placed on any person that will vote for Tinubu.

His desperation to be Nigeria President made Tinubu to reject restructuring of Nigeria which he used to campaign in 2015. This man never condemned Herdsmen killings of Nigerians. This means Nigerians can all die if that can guarantee him to be the President. He is evil but pretend to be nice. He will destroy Nigeria with his greed and the issue of godfathers will be strongly established in every region. He will make all politicians to come and bow to him before they are endorsed to contest. He will make Nigeria one party system.

He only care for his pocket and power and he does not have the interest of Nigeria and Nigerians at heart.

greed is one virus I know that don't have vaccine.

Grayoso:



Rather, you are the enemy of Nigeria. Placing a curse on others for voting candidates of their choice? Throwback cave dweller.

One can tell the nasty fetish home you came from.

E pain am

Ungrateful lots

Peter Obi - President
Babagana Umara Zulum - Vice president
David Umahi - Minister for works
Babatunde Fashola - Minister for power and mines
Akinwumi Adesina - Minister for Finance
Nasir El-Rufai - Minister for Interior Affairs

Competence is what will lift Nigeria away from the failed state it has become. We've gotta look beyond ethnicity and partisan politics and headhunt people who have a proven record of performance in the positions where they will make the most impact.

As for the people propagating their grandfather to mis-preside over them and their families, I leave you to God's judgment.

kponkedenge:
Once it involves northerners saying something bad about Tinubu, they all keep quiet. But when it's Igbos they begin to jerk anyhow and claim hate this hate that.

Same people that don't spare any opportunity to insult Nnamdi Kanu or Peter Obi once they get the chance..... but they don't see that one as hate.

Bunch of clowns.

So do you expect Northerners to reciprocate hatred with love? Do you love your enemies and hate your lovers? Don't you have sense?

UtuokeAlcoholic:
So do you expect Northerners to reciprocate hatred with love? Do you love your enemies and hate your lovers? Don't you have sense?

You obviously don't have sense....cos if you did, you wouldn't have written what you wrote.

You didn't even read and understand what I wrote.... you just quoted me just to make a silly comment.

perez100:
Anybody that vote for Tinubu is the real enemy of Nigeria that wants this country to remain in darkness. A curse will be placed on any person that will vote for Tinubu.

His desperation to be Nigeria President made Tinubu to reject restructuring of Nigeria which he used to campaign in 2015. This man never condemned Herdsmen killings of Nigerians. This means Nigerians can all die if that can guarantee him to be the President. He is evil but pretend to be nice. He will destroy Nigeria with his greed and the issue of godfathers will be strongly established in every region. He will make all politicians to come and bow to him before they are endorsed to contest. He will make Nigeria one party system.

He only care for his pocket and power and he does not have the interest of Nigeria and Nigerians at heart.

same with umahi,ouk ,osibanjo,Atiku,saraki and a whole lot of our politicians.
yet our people won't see beyond ethnicity.Thus ethnic competition to provide it's worst for a position reserved for the best is killing Nigeria.

Are these men truly the best all the ethnic groups in Nigeria can provide ?

Grayoso:



Rather, you are the enemy of Nigeria. Placing a curse on others for voting candidates of their choice? Throwback cave dweller.

One can tell the nasty fetish home you came from.

dimwit

Same way oba lil Wayne threatened Igbos if they don't vote a candidate of their choice against his wish right?

You yorubas are utterly despicable and densely pathetic set of unfortunate subhumans

shizzleStar:
Is that all? Why don't you attack them same way you attack Igbos. Typical coward and spineless berebe banza slave

You lots are a bunch of cursed idiots

No one talks of Igbos
They are too cursed to be talked about
People that kill their own to pain the government
Awon mumu

shizzleStar:
dimwit

Same way oba lil Wayne threatened Igbos if they don't vote a candidate of their choice against his wish right?

You yorubas are utterly despicable and densely pathetic set of unfortunate subhumans

Mumu, are we as pathetic as shameless, money-obsessed and 'refugee' Igbos who would go to even diseased and war torn land just to hustle one dollar?

No one respect you Igbos today because the information age has shown you up to be a fake, desperate, garish, and 'anywhere belle face' people living fake lives.

You cannot stay in your barren land and need others for even the most basic village sustenance of your people.

Yet you dare call Yorubas pathetic when they accommodate 10 million plus of your people and indirectly feed your worthless and cursed SE region? You and most Igbos need psychiatric evaluation.

Tinubu's accomplishments in the last 2 decades is the reason many think he has stayed in the game for too long.

kponkedenge:


You obviously don't have sense....cos if you did, you wouldn't have written what you wrote.

You didn't even read and understand what I wrote.... you just quoted me just to make a silly comment.

So you want the Yorubas to hate the northerners the way you Igbos hate them?

00FFT00:
Peter Obi - President
Babagana Umara Zulum - Vice president
David Umahi - Minister for works
Babatunde Fashola - Minister for power and mines
Akinwumi Adesina - Minister for Finance
Nasir El-Rufai - Minister for Interior Affairs

Competence is what will lift Nigeria away from the failed state it has become. We've gotta look beyond ethnicity and partisan politics and headhunt people who have a proven record of performance in the positions where they will make the most impact.

As for the people propagating their grandfather to mis-preside over them and their families, I leave you to God's judgment.

Are you mad or something? Don't we have another set of people who can head those post in Nigeria. Recycling corrupt politicians all the time.

Grayoso:



Rather, you are the enemy of Nigeria. Placing a curse on others for voting candidates of their choice? Throwback cave dweller.

One can tell the nasty fetish home you came from.

But he made an honest point.

Sheriman:

Are you mad or something? Don't we have another set of people who can head those post in Nigeria. Recycling corrupt politicians all the time.

Something tells me you may be capable of expressing your beliefs and opinion without using uncouth language. Use that possibility son.

tonididdy:


Own which Nigeria?
That jagaban virus Don enter your amala skull.
Tininbu starts and stops in Lagos .

Btw what pained you the most to attack me like a rabid dog, is it the free and fair election part or the he will never win part

I will not bother to call you a flat head or hammer okirika head…as it is obvious.

Back to the topic:
if you think Tinubu doesn’t have what it takes to win then you’re simply confused just like most of your leaders in the south.

Just keep in mind that all you need to win a presidential election in Nigeria is a pure synchronization of Hausa people and Yoruba people, once this happens the game is over… And in fact, this happens to be one of the reasons why an average Igbo man is frustrated and impotent; Hausas don’t like them and Yorubas don’t trust them.

Time will tell… Let’s see what happens, may be Orji Kalu wins it all (LMAO)

aviara:


Lagos has always been a cosmopolitan city long before the colonist came. There are many Igbo's in Kano whose parents moved up north for business reasons and they have lived all their lives there. So it's not true Tinubu did anything g special that made Lagos attractive to non indigenes. Cost of living is very high in Lagos but many industries are located here.

I agree with you.
You said “before the colonist came” wow! that is a very long time ago.

Instead of constantly flooding Lagos, isn’t before the colonist came long enough for Igbo leaders to set up a duplication of Lagos in the south?

It may not be a bad idea for ur leaders to learn 1 or 2 things from the Jagaban of Lagos…on how he consistently make big things happen?

If you can’t beat him, join him or learn from him.

Grayoso:



Rather, you are the enemy of Nigeria. Placing a curse on others for voting candidates of their choice? Throwback cave dweller.

One can tell the nasty fetish home you came from.

But people should not exercise right of choice just because they have it. We should be responsible with the way we choose. Its peoples choice that have led us where we are now.
Many that made the choice to put us here are regretting. I have families that cant look at me in the face now because of guilt. Shouldn't we learn? Shouldn't we be very careful and even weary of a canditate that looks very similar to the bad one we chose and that even relate freely together?
We really need to be responsible with our choice. 8 years is no joke. We don't live forever.
I had my Dad before Buharis tenure but he died some months ago. Our hospitals are terible. I am concerned about the next eight years. I will start having children too. I should have even, if not for the bad economy. We have to start taking leadership seriously. It's more than religion and tribal affiliations and more than bragging rights. Because some people unfortunately vote for these leaders just so they will be a able to brag to friends that they won...like it's some kind of football matches.

zomby:

I will not bother to call you a flat head or hammer okirika head…as it is obvious.

Back to the topic:
if you think Tinubu doesn’t have what it takes to win then you’re simply confused just like most of your leaders in the south.

Just keep in mind that all you need to win a presidential election in Nigeria is a pure synchronization of Hausa people and Yoruba people, once this happens the game is over… And in fact, this happens to be one of the reasons why an average Igbo man is frustrated and impotent; Hausas don’t like them and Yorubas don’t trust them.

Time will tell… Let’s see what happens, may be Orji Kalu wins it all (LMAO)

U be real xombie
I will rather vote Buhari for a 3rd term or vote another Fulani man that vote that yoloba man thiefnibu


Ps: na God go punish nnamdi kanu