₦airaland Forum

Rooomage:
You tried. I can guarantee that Tinubu will win Sokoto and Benue too.
1. Wamakko, who is a political force and leader in Sokoto, is a close associate of Tinubu.
2. George Akume is the APC political leader in Benue. He is also Tinubu associate.

You forgot Borno he gave to Osibanjo.

History555:
Assumptions assumptions
Where is Buhari role in all these or u think Buhari and malami decision to include consensus is for theatrics.

What if Buhari prints only one form for presidential primaries like obj

What if tinubu is disqualified.

U guys assume buhari has zero interest in who succeds him

Hahahahahahahaha.....una dey mk me laff.
Na realm of fantasy u just dey.

Patriot9:
This is my own little analysis.
I drew the table based on my little knowledge in politics.
However, I mainly focused on the two big guns (Tinubu and Amaechi).
I stand to be corrected

Now I am beginning to see why many people are saying Osinbanjo is a damage control (plan B).
They need him to reduce the voting strength in South south and south east and some christian states in north central and being a Christian he is.

You are clearly on drugs, who do you think SE delegates will vote for? Before the night of the primary SE will get a consensus candidate and the whole votes will move to that person (Ogbonnaya Onu) . Just relax and enjoy the show

KingsCity:
Indirect primaries is undemocratic because delegates can be bought.

All a candidate needs to be sure of winning the primaries is to buy 3901 delegate

It will come down to who has more money to buy delegates. If Buhari backs any candidate, the job is half done because he will simply open CBN's vault, pack enough hard currency and buy enough delegates for his preferred candidate

I don't think Buhari will do that, he is too selfish unless he desperately wants that person to be next president

Tinubuadvocate:
I'm pretty sure that Tinubu will win imo and Abia state.

You are a big time joker

How

ProudImolite:
You are a big time joker

jiz:
Anyway anyhow, beyond any analysis and calculations, Osinbajo is the 2023 presidential candidate. Mark this post after primary. All this analysis will change in the next 2 weeks

E pain you

Tinubuadvocate:
How

Tinubu won't get one vote in Abia state , I don't know that if Imo

SledgeHammerer:
This is the breakdown of the 7800 APC delegates that will determine the fate of the APC presidential aspirants.






Numbers of APC national delegates according to their geo-political zones and state.

Zones ���
North West: 1, 924 delegates
South West: 1,568 delegates
North Central: 1,278 delegates
North East: 1, 212 delegates.
South East: 838 delegates.
South south 927 delegates.
Total = 7,800 Delegates

State���
Kano: 465 delegates; Katsina, 384, Borno, 324; Osun, 308; Lagos, 304, Oyo 292; Jigawa, 266; Niger, 251; Ogun, 248 and Nasarawa 245 delegates.Abia has 154, Adamawa 184, Akwa Ibom 165, Anambra 163, Bauchi 202, Bayelsa 79, Benue 180, Cross River 194, Delta 170, Ebonyi 154, Edo 168, Ekiti 216, Enugu 131, Gombe 134, Imo 236, Kaduna 234 and Kebbi 213.Kogi 222, Kwara 195, Ondo 200, Plateau 185, Rivers 151, Sokoto 193, Taraba 146, Yobe 222, Zamfara 169 and FCT 53.

But the total is not 7800

Great2017:
But the total is not 7800

There are statutory delegates and three elected delegates per state.
It'll be around 8000 eventually.

SledgeHammerer:
There are statutory delegates and three elected delegates per state.
It'll be around 8000 eventually.

Okay

garfield1:
Am not sure of razak but with him being increasingly isolated,he might fall back to tinubu with the saraki camp restrategizing and sdp getting stronger. But gbemisola is deputy to amechi and may sway some delegates to him...

Akume has been loyal to tinubu but tinubu has been disappointing him firstly in the Senate president contest and recently party chair so he might disappoint... I agree with you on badaru though I dont trust him,bagudu ans buni.. Normally,more than half of the delegates should go with tinubu

Tinubu actually tried for Akume during the Senate Presidency saga and you don't expect him to continue fighting on even after Buhari already feel unconcerned .

History555:
Assumptions assumptions
Where is Buhari role in all these or u think Buhari and malami decision to include consensus is for theatrics.

What if Buhari prints only one form for presidential primaries like obj

What if tinubu is disqualified.

U guys assume buhari has zero interest in who succeds him

First, APC constitution has no place for consensus when it comes to Presidential primaries.

In 2011, Buhari refused to drop Pastor Tunde Bakare as his VP candidate for Tinubu or someone from the ACN as a condition for an alliance. What happened? Buhari lost the election. Fast forward to 2019, Buhari had to reactivate his friendship with Tinubu when they realised losing SW might make them lose the election.
My point is, even Buhari and his cabals know very well that APC will bid Aso Rock goodbye if they tried any of what you suggested.

ProudImolite:
You are clearly on drugs, who do you think SE delegates will vote for? Before the night of the primary SE will get a consensus candidate and the whole votes will move to that person (Ogbonnaya Onu) . Just relax and enjoy the show

if the whole of south east presents a concensus candidate (Onu, Ngige or Umahi) then it's a plus for Tinubu.
And please, you don't have to lace your response with insult

Rooomage:
First, APC constitution has no place for consensus when it comes to Presidential primaries.

In 2011, Buhari refused to drop Pastor Tunde Bakare as his VP candidate for Tinubu or someone from the ACN as a condition for an alliance. What happened? Buhari lost the election. Fast forward to 2019, Buhari had to reactivate his friendship with Tinubu when they realised losing SW might make them lose the election.
My point is, even Buhari and his cabals know very well that APC will bid Aso Rock goodbye if they tried any of what you suggested.

A concensus candidate in Apc is like a Ukrainian Neptune missile. It will sink Apc to the bottom of the sea

Patriot9:
This is my own little analysis.
I drew the table based on my little knowledge in politics.
However, I mainly focused on the two big guns (Tinubu and Amaechi).
I stand to be corrected

Now I am beginning to see why many people are saying Osinbanjo is a damage control (plan B).
They need him to reduce the voting strength in South south and south east and some christian states in north central and being a Christian he is.

Borno state is solidly with Tinubu because both the governor Zulum and Shettima are with him , I don't see how Akume will abandon his long time Ally and political partner for Osinbajo in Benue state . Tinubu never for once disturbed him in that state all through their political partnership .


Even the state he's not winning he's easily the runners up there so couple of votes here and there add to the states he's already leading should get him the ticket.

tinsel:
You forgot Borno he gave to Osibanjo.

Oh yes, Borno too is in the bag for Tinubu.

I think whoever prompted Osinbajo to declare and contest against Tinubu is only looking to cause disharmony. Unfortunately, he's being played. He is just a pawn in the chess game.

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LegendHero:
Brother, you get it!

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Tinubuadvocate:
Ah southeast

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Tinubuadvocate:
I'm pretty sure that Tinubu will win imo and Abia state.

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SledgeHammerer:
Delegates are not based on states population.

I know.Cheating is allowed with number of local govts..

All I know is that Buhari has more than 60% stake if the APC ever dreams of the next election, cos they would be needing the heavy rigging power of the incumbent.

You people are just speculating, although I don't see Buhari endorsing Osinbajo

Obamaofusa:
I know.Cheating is allowed with number of local govts..

Absolutely!
I think a state like Lagos should have more local government. Constitutionally recognized LGAs.

Parachoko:
Buhari can't even dump or work against him.

He has already dumped him

KingsCity:
Indirect primaries is undemocratic because delegates can be bought.

All a candidate needs to be sure of winning the primaries is to buy 3901 delegate

It will come down to who has more money to buy delegates. If Buhari backs any candidate, the job is half done because he will simply open CBN's vault, pack enough hard currency and buy enough delegates for his preferred candidate

Buhari will never open the CBN vault for anyone! That's what every aspirant knows. No father Christmas anywhere.

LegendHero:
There is only one person that can stop Tinubu and that will be Buhari but that will also mean the end of APC if Buhari fail to be neutral.

The only trump card Buhari can play is to support Osinbajo openly before the primaries, like that he will divide Asiwaju loyalty base.

In any mode of primaries whether direct or indirect, Tinubu will win. Tinubu is a kind of politician that knows how to network, most of the delegates stand to gain a lot supporting him than against him.

He also do not have the culture of use and dump. If I am to be a delegate also, I will vote for Tinubu.

Simple as ABC. With or without the Presidency, they will always need Tinubu and he has always been generous when needed. No smart delegate will burn such a bridge even for Buhari. Buhari will not give any party candidate a Kobo for elections so, why follow him? This is strictly about a politician's career and future bridges. Everyone wants to back the surest horse.