₦airaland Forum

Tinubu doesn't take up an impossible assignment nor romance failure. He will shock opportunists and pessimists.
- Chief Bisi Akande

Everything is now in place for the mother of all conventions, which will determine the presidential candidate for Africa's largest political party, the All Progressives Congress, APC.

The party has tentatively set the convention date for May 30/31 2022.

Of course, the APC would prefer an electoral process in which delegates from the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory would choose the party's representative or a consensus arrangement where the President alongside the Governors and party stakeholders including the contestants would arrive at a consensus candidacy.

As it stands what are the chances of the various aspirants who have indicated an interest in the presidency under the APC.

The names of aspirants who have expressed interest in the party's ticket are listed below.

Bola Tinubu,David Umahi , Yemi Osinbajo, Rochas Okorocha, Rotimi Amaechi,Yahaya Bello,Sani Yerima

Orji Kalu, Chris Ngige, and Ogbonnaya Onu.

Now let us take a quick look at the national delegates according to their geo-political zones.

North West: 1, 924 delegates... South West: 1,568 delegates...North Central: 1,278 delegates

North East: 1, 212 delegates...South East: 838 delegates...South South 927 delegates.

Total = 7,800 Delegates.

A quick rundown from States is as follows,

Kano 465 delegates; Katsina 384; Borno 324; Osun 308; Lagos 304; Oyo 292; Jigawa 266; Niger 251; Ogun 248; Nasarawa 245; Abia 154, Adamawa 184; Akwa Ibom 165; Anambra 163, Bauchi 202; Bayelsa 79; Benue 180; Cross River 194; Delta 170; Ebonyi 154; Edo 168; Ekiti 216; Enugu 131; Gombe 134; Imo 236, Kaduna 234; Kebbi 213; Kogi 222; Kwara 195; Ondo 200; Plateau 185; Rivers 151; Sokoto 193; Taraba 146; Yobe 222; Zamfara 169 and FCT 53.

For the sake of space, we'll confine our litmus test to the top ten states for a comprehensive examination.

The top 10 in order of importance are listed below.

1. Kano 2. Katsina 3. Borno 4. Osun 5. Lagos 6. Oyo 7. Jigawa 8. Niger 9. Ogun 10. Nasarawa.

1 Kano:
If the body language of both Ganduje and Shekarau is anything to go by, Kano State is a no-go zone for other hopefuls. As we all know, the Governor of Kano State is a staunch Jagaban supporter. Ganduje is the only governor who can be regarded to be as close to Tinubu as he is.

Shekarau has stated numerous times that Kano State is sure for Tinubu.

2 Katsina.
HE Aminu Bello Masari is without a doubt Tinubu's most ardent supporter; he has always stated that when Tinubu leads, others will follow. His devotion to Tinubu is evident on a daily basis. Katsina State would undoubtedly be delivered by Aminu Bello Masari.

3 Borno State.
It may be of interest to you to know that Prof Zulum and Kassim Shettima, the predecessor to Prof Zulum, are renowned supporters of Tinubu's candidacy. Borno State is like Tinubu's Bourdillion residence.

4 Osun State
Other aspirants should avoid Osun, which has 308 delegates. We all saw how the Jagaban's close buddy Oyetola trounced Aregbesola in the recently concluded APC primaries in Osun State, and the delegates are unanimous in their support for Tinubu.

5 Lagos State
Lagos has four fewer delegates than Osun, with 304. Should we waste time debating whether or not Sanwo Olu would deliver for Tinubu? Please allow me to take a bow on behalf of Lagos.

6 Oyo State:

Because the PDP controls the state, Tinubu can count on 70 per cent of the delegates from Oyo even if the state does not show up solely for the Jagaban.

7 Jigawa State.
The Governor of Jigawa State, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, is a close ally of Tinubu, and so also is the former Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, who has accompanied the Jagaban on most of his recent visits around the Northern States. In Jigawa, Tinubu has a strong showing.

8 Niger:
Are you aware that Abubakar Sani Bello, the governor of Niger State, has since endorsed Tinubu's candidacy?

9 Ogun:

Should we give Osinbajo the benefit of the doubt since it is his state? If history is any guide, Osinbajo when in Lagos APC never won an election in his ward as a sitting Vice President.
Would Adedapo Oluseun Abiodun betray Tinubu or Osinbajo by delivering Ogun? This question would be validated over time.

10 Nasarawa State
Governor Abdullahi A. Sule once wore Tinubu's signature cap to a meeting of the State Executive Council. He is Tinubu's unrepentant ally.

So, with these ten states and Tinubu very certain to win the majority of delegates, it's time to think about the Federation's entire 36 states.

Let me now explain how a consensus works for people who believe a consensus is the best way to be on the party's ticket.

The first criterion for a consensus is that all of the contestants agree. The next criterion is who has the ability to defeat the opposition PDP, and the final criterion is who has the support of the majority of stakeholders.

The last item on the list clearly illustrates that if there is a consensus, the most likely aspirant to emerge is the one who has the support of the majority of the delegates.

So, when conducting your own research, have a look at the other candidates stated above and conduct a thorough examination vis a vis the 36 States.

Politics is a local game; it's not about feeling or how you feel about your favourite candidate; it's about who is best equipped for the task at hand.

Once again my name na Osigwe Omo-Ikirdoah and na me be the Principal and Chairman/CEO Bush Radio Academy.

oikirodah:
2023: A Look At The APC's 7,800 Delegates And Tinubu's Unanimous Support By Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah

Tinubu doesn't take up an impossible assignment nor romance failure. He will shock opportunists and pessimists.
- Chief Bisi Akande

Everything is now in place for the mother of all conventions, which will determine the presidential candidate for Africa's largest political party, the All Progressives Congress, APC.

The party has tentatively set the convention date for May 30/31 2022.

Of course, the APC would prefer an electoral process in which delegates from the 36 states of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory would choose the party's representative or a consensus arrangement where the President alongside the Governors and party stakeholders including the contestants would arrive at a consensus candidacy.

As it stands what are the chances of the various aspirants who have indicated an interest in the presidency under the APC.

The names of aspirants who have expressed interest in the party's ticket are listed below.

Bola Tinubu,David Umahi , Yemi Osinbajo, Rochas Okorocha, Rotimi Amaechi,Yahaya Bello,Sani Yerima

Orji Kalu, Chris Ngige, and Ogbonnaya Onu.

Now let us take a quick look at the national delegates according to their geo-political zones.

North West: 1, 924 delegates... South West: 1,568 delegates...North Central: 1,278 delegates

North East: 1, 212 delegates...South East: 838 delegates...South South 927 delegates.

Total = 7,800 Delegates.

A quick rundown from States is as follows,

Kano 465 delegates; Katsina 384; Borno 324; Osun 308; Lagos 304; Oyo 292; Jigawa 266; Niger 251; Ogun 248; Nasarawa 245; Abia 154, Adamawa 184; Akwa Ibom 165; Anambra 163, Bauchi 202; Bayelsa 79; Benue 180; Cross River 194; Delta 170; Ebonyi 154; Edo 168; Ekiti 216; Enugu 131; Gombe 134; Imo 236, Kaduna 234; Kebbi 213; Kogi 222; Kwara 195; Ondo 200; Plateau 185; Rivers 151; Sokoto 193; Taraba 146; Yobe 222; Zamfara 169 and FCT 53.

For the sake of space, we'll confine our litmus test to the top ten states for a comprehensive examination.

The top 10 in order of importance are listed below.

1. Kano 2. Katsina 3. Borno 4. Osun 5. Lagos 6. Oyo 7. Jigawa 8. Niger 9. Ogun 10. Nasarawa.

1 Kano:
If the body language of both Ganduje and Shekarau is anything to go by, Kano State is a no-go zone for other hopefuls. As we all know, the Governor of Kano State is a staunch Jagaban supporter. Ganduje is the only governor who can be regarded to be as close to Tinubu as he is.

Shekarau has stated numerous times that Kano State is sure for Tinubu.

2 Katsina.
HE Aminu Bello Masari is without a doubt Tinubu's most ardent supporter; he has always stated that when Tinubu leads, others will follow. His devotion to Tinubu is evident on a daily basis. Katsina State would undoubtedly be delivered by Aminu Bello Masari.

3 Borno State.
It may be of interest to you to know that Prof Zulum and Kassim Shettima, the predecessor to Prof Zulum, are renowned supporters of Tinubu's candidacy. Borno State is like Tinubu's Bourdillion residence.

4 Osun State
Other aspirants should avoid Osun, which has 308 delegates. We all saw how the Jagaban's close buddy Oyetola trounced Aregbesola in the recently concluded APC primaries in Osun State, and the delegates are unanimous in their support for Tinubu.

5 Lagos State
Lagos has four fewer delegates than Osun, with 304. Should we waste time debating whether or not Sanwo Olu would deliver for Tinubu? Please allow me to take a bow on behalf of Lagos.

6 Oyo State:

Because the PDP controls the state, Tinubu can count on 70 per cent of the delegates from Oyo even if the state does not show up solely for the Jagaban.

7 Jigawa State.
The Governor of Jigawa State, Muhammad Badaru Abubakar, is a close ally of Tinubu, and so also is the former Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Saminu Turaki, who has accompanied the Jagaban on most of his recent visits around the Northern States. In Jigawa, Tinubu has a strong showing.

8 Niger:
Are you aware that Abubakar Sani Bello, the governor of Niger State, has since endorsed Tinubu's candidacy?

9 Ogun:

Should we give Osinbajo the benefit of the doubt since it is his state? If history is any guide, Osinbajo when in Lagos APC never won an election in his ward as a sitting Vice President.
Would Adedapo Oluseun Abiodun betray Tinubu or Osinbajo by delivering Ogun? This question would be validated over time.

10 Nasarawa State
Governor Abdullahi A. Sule once wore Tinubu's signature cap to a meeting of the State Executive Council. He is Tinubu's unrepentant ally.

So, with these ten states and Tinubu very certain to win the majority of delegates, it's time to think about the Federation's entire 36 states.

Let me now explain how a consensus works for people who believe a consensus is the best way to be on the party's ticket.

The first criterion for a consensus is that all of the contestants agree. The next criterion is who has the ability to defeat the opposition PDP, and the final criterion is who has the support of the majority of stakeholders.

The last item on the list clearly illustrates that if there is a consensus, the most likely aspirant to emerge is the one who has the support of the majority of the delegates.

So, when conducting your own research, have a look at the other candidates stated above and conduct a thorough examination vis a vis the 36 States.

Politics is a local game; it's not about feeling or how you feel about your favourite candidate; it's about who is best equipped for the task at hand.

Once again my name na Osigwe Omo-Ikirdoah and na me be the Principal and Chairman/CEO Bush Radio Academy.
https://ireporteronline.com.ng/blog/2023-a-look-at-the-apcs-7800-delegates-and-tinubus-unanimous-support-by-osigwe-omo-ikirodah/

ucheheart:
So in other words you are saying there is no hope for osinbajo.

Ahmed0336:
APC Ticket is between BAT and Ameachi.

ucheheart:
So Una Don delete osinbajo? How much tinubu take settle am?

Gozac:
BAT has already carried the day, no need for elections at all
Yes in politics is not always yes,1+1 in politics is always 2it can be 11 at times
Politics is deep, crooked and dirty
A day in politics is a century, anything can happen at any time
Amaechi will win this ticket, mark this time and day.
It has been sorted out since

Siwel25:
People like U want the PDP to have an easy route to Ask Rock. If not, how will the APC field a candidate who's like an orphan in his LGA? The House Leader even angrily declared that it will not happen.

Baawaa:
Tinubu will be disgrace with his bullion vans

Baawaa:
Tinubu will be disgrace with his bullion vans

History555:
All these permutations ignores buhari totally as if he doesn't hve an interest in who succeed him. A black man for that manner. Govs determines who succeeds them, tinubu determines who rules lagos, but permutations assume buhari is not interested in who succeed him

Siwel25:
Buhari would have done that if an heavyweight like Tinubu wasn't contesting and his Govt performed but this primaries is a trap for him and the Party excos. Forcing his choice on the party will automatically tilt victory in favour of the PDP. There's no way APC can win a National election without the structures and allies of Tinubu. Even with Jagaban, they have a tough fight in their hands not to talk of losing his over 1500 support groups.

The only way to maintain party unity is for the aspirants to see that they lost in a free and fair Primary. Anyone with a sane mind should know that. Buhari is not the one to deliver the votes for the Party's candidate and he's reluctant to open the Central Bank to fund the Party. This makes it important to retain the support and financial clout of the heavyweights.