₦airaland Forum

Ndibunna:
Truth is you are not from rivers state. Your identity is visible here

nextdoor84:
Lols! You are a clown. Take your time and go through my timeline before spewing nonsense!! I have been on Nairaland for over a decade. I have got no time for Newbie like you.

Ndibunna:
Since you want me to burst you let me help you

Nextdoor84=Igboid=Allcomage.

No be everyone be novocey

nextdoor84:
Igbo clown? You must be very high on osogbo weed. Yeye Bayelsa clown like yourself. Let me and you do our rivers challenge na!! You are very ignorant.

helinues:
But the question is can Wike's preferred candidate win the Rivers state governorship election?

ChonchaLib:
Problem with rivers politics is literally the lack of strategy from the riverine parts. They should have been governor since 2007, but because of an obstinate attitude towards the new balance of power in the state, their guber hopes have remained just that, hopeful.

When Bayelsa was part of the state, southern Ijaw used to produce the mammoth votes at elections. That's what put Okilo there and Ada George. You could easily manufacture 400k votes and report after the other areas have been announced. Gbam you have the election.

However, in the state creation race of then, they miscalculated the effect of Bayelsa on their intra state stature. Robbing them of a vote bank that was clearly contrived (southern Ijaw doesn't put up such numbers in the present day). Another thing their elites kicked against was the separation on obio and akpor which was interpreted as giving ikwerre an extra local govt. You have to remember they enjoyed close relations with the military FGs more than anyone in the area and had more men of stature then.

Fast forward to today. Election day starts and u have the various LGs submitting results. Total votes from any riverine area except andoni is always below 50,000 and in fact more so around 10 to 15 000 at max. Andoni can do 100,000 plus so that's fair. But when u look at all the LGs of the boisterous politicians from Opobo OguBolo etc. It is sometimes less than 10k.

But at the same time,Obio /Akpor (now with a singular consolidated identity) and Port Harcourt as the main urban centers do more than a million. Now this is where ppl get it confused. "but PH is a multicultural center. Everyone lives there ." There is the impression that urban centers like PH and Lagos are not owned by anybody. Confusing economic reality for political reality. Even when Lagos reaches 30 million ppl it's local politicians will always battle at the booths and win. Same for PH, Ikwerre dwellers native to the urban center have seized control of their political structures for themselves.

This is something that hasn't been properly studied. The community, the local people might not be the richest but the one thing they have is their polling booth and that they keep. They're pretty much appropriating the register for their area like it is done anywhere else in Naija. So Ikwerre elites control far more votes than they really have.

So how do you become Governor ? Shouting that it's your turn ? When mathematically you cannot do anything ? To highlight the issue; the Jonathans in their fight against Amaechi literally went with another Ikwerre man to counter him. To them, that their fellow Ijaws would be cut out wasn't an issue. Showing you the pragmatism at play.

Rivers governor can be anybody. But someone who can convince the voter heavy areas in the upland (esp Ikwerre areas) of their candidature. At this stage even the pipeline bombers have been converted by Nyesom. Theyre all in political office, holding traditional stools or literally making mega bucks in legal and illegal oil related ventures. As partners of the prevailing order. The intelligentsia of the riverine have lost their muscle so to speak.

Amaechi who could've helped fix things from the APC end had isolated himself from the major voting banks with his lousy mouth. He seems genuine about letting a riverine take his party ticket. Like he did with Tonye Cole and co. But he forgets something. He was a product of the same upland-focused structure inaugurated by Odili. Not the structure himself.

It's all about playing politics. Doing it well without too much emotion.

Btw Nyesom can easily give a riverine candidate. But there will be an upland (Ikwerre heavy) Mafia behind the scenes.

Hope this helped.

ChonchaLib:
Problem with rivers politics is literally the lack of strategy from the riverine parts. They should have been governor since 2007, but because of an obstinate attitude towards the new balance of power in the state, their guber hopes have remained just that, hopeful.

When Bayelsa was part of the state, southern Ijaw used to produce the mammoth votes at elections. That's what put Okilo there and Ada George. You could easily manufacture 400k votes and report after the other areas have been announced. Gbam you have the election.

However, in the state creation race of then, they miscalculated the effect of Bayelsa on their intra state stature. Robbing them of a vote bank that was clearly contrived (southern Ijaw doesn't put up such numbers in the present day). Another thing their elites kicked against was the separation on obio and akpor which was interpreted as giving ikwerre an extra local govt. You have to remember they enjoyed close relations with the military FGs more than anyone in the area and had more men of stature then.

Fast forward to today. Election day starts and u have the various LGs submitting results. Total votes from any riverine area except andoni is always below 50,000 and in fact more so around 10 to 15 000 at max. Andoni can do 100,000 plus so that's fair. But when u look at all the LGs of the boisterous politicians from Opobo OguBolo etc. It is sometimes less than 10k.

But at the same time,Obio /Akpor (now with a singular consolidated identity) and Port Harcourt as the main urban centers do more than a million. Now this is where ppl get it confused. "but PH is a multicultural center. Everyone lives there ." There is the impression that urban centers like PH and Lagos are not owned by anybody. Confusing economic reality for political reality. Even when Lagos reaches 30 million ppl it's local politicians will always battle at the booths and win. Same for PH, Ikwerre dwellers native to the urban center have seized control of their political structures for themselves.

This is something that hasn't been properly studied. The community, the local people might not be the richest but the one thing they have is their polling booth and that they keep. They're pretty much appropriating the register for their area like it is done anywhere else in Naija. So Ikwerre elites control far more votes than they really have.

So how do you become Governor ? Shouting that it's your turn ? When mathematically you cannot do anything ? To highlight the issue; the Jonathans in their fight against Amaechi literally went with another Ikwerre man to counter him. To them, that their fellow Ijaws would be cut out wasn't an issue. Showing you the pragmatism at play.

Rivers governor can be anybody. But someone who can convince the voter heavy areas in the upland (esp Ikwerre areas) of their candidature. At this stage even the pipeline bombers have been converted by Nyesom. Theyre all in political office, holding traditional stools or literally making mega bucks in legal and illegal oil related ventures. As partners of the prevailing order. The intelligentsia of the riverine have lost their muscle so to speak.

Amaechi who could've helped fix things from the APC end had isolated himself from the major voting banks with his lousy mouth. He seems genuine about letting a riverine take his party ticket. Like he did with Tonye Cole and co. But he forgets something. He was a product of the same upland-focused structure inaugurated by Odili. Not the structure himself.

It's all about playing politics. Doing it well without too much emotion.

Btw Nyesom can easily give a riverine candidate. But there will be an upland (Ikwerre heavy) Mafia behind the scenes.

Hope this helped.

garfield1:
If the riverine combine with ogoni,they will seize power

helinues:
Interesting. You just described the Yewa people in Ogun state. There Politics seems to be same

ChonchaLib:
Ah as the dominant group or are they fighting for their turn the wrong way ?

Wike them understand this. That's why he's not scared. And even Abuja hasn't cared so much about Amaechi losing Rivers.

Comically, Wike harvested only half of rivers potential for Atiku in 2019. Only to almost double it for his own results a few weeks after. Lol. Something I think Abuja ppl were well pleased at.

It's these small details that make ppl like Wike seem Too much etc. This is what the hype is based on.

helinues:
Sorry to generalise about them but their confusion is just like mount everest. The highest position they have ever been in Ogun government is Deputy Governor. When it comes to governorship selection, they are just not united.

Funnily instead of them to lobby their candidates to at least get the ticket of one of the major political party, na them go still play the saboteur role when it comes to primary selection

ChonchaLib:
It remains to be seen. "If" such an alliance is workable is the first question. Especially among two presently opposing groups. Ogoni interest is not Riverine interest.

And let's assume that both groups combine. All of those votes, which will be mainly Ogoni and Andoni will not cross 350,000(at premium rigging). You're fully aware of what is possible from different PHALGA alone without Obalga. Combined they can more than double those figures by evening. Closer to between 2.5* and 3*

The issue with these hopes is the emotional and antagonistic posture. Your job in politics is to sell yourself. Not dig a trench and set up a barrier. You can do this when you are a majority in need of just "spread." But when you need actual votes to win. Not possible if you go that way.

Igboid:
You think everyone is an impostor like you.

Ndibunna:
Since you want me to burst you let me help you

Nextdoor84=Igboid=Allcomage.

No be everyone be novocey

nextdoor84:
I am done replying you. You no just well I swear.

ChonchaLib:
It remains to be seen. "If" such an alliance is workable is the first question. Especially among two presently opposing groups. Ogoni interest is not Riverine interest.

And let's assume that both groups combine. All of those votes, which will be mainly Ogoni and Andoni will not cross 350,000(at premium rigging). You're fully aware of what is possible from different PHALGA alone without Obalga. Combined they can more than double those figures by evening. Closer to between 2.5* and 3*

The issue with these hopes is the emotional and antagonistic posture. Your job in politics is to sell yourself. Not dig a trench and set up a barrier. You can do this when you are a majority in need of just "spread." But when you need actual votes to win. Not possible if you go that way.

garfield1:
If the riverine combine with ogoni,they will seize power

garfield1:
Majority of the voters in phalga and obalga are non indigenes and bloated so with the new electoral act,it will be exposed.moreover during the last polls,phalga couldn't inflate votes.only obalga did.amechi can also inflate ikwerre LGA votes to get the decider.let's say khana /gokana/degema neutralize gss obalga.andoni cancels phalga.asari toru cancels emohua,akukutoru and okrika neutralize obalga while ikwerre LGA and opobo nkoro gives apc the victory not talking of abua odual which can come into play if pdp rigs etche/omuma or oyigbo.eleme,tai or ogubolo will be on standby against ahoada

ChonchaLib:
All fine. No problem in slugging it out with Rivers ppl. It is the right order of things. May the best man win

garfield1:
I see abe winning