Desperado14:
Now with Tinubu showing his hand and picking a northern Muslim as vice I am hundred percent certain he won't win the South West the most he will collect is 50% in that region. Foolish move.

VoteTinubu2023:

The problem with all these delusionary permutation is when Obi certainly loses which he will. You will claim the election was rigged, votes were bought or some other stupid and ignorant excuse. You will never admit your gullibility and stupidity.

You lots can never be sensible enough to realise Obi's candidacy is a wild goose chase. Whatever rocks your boat.


Vote Tinubu 2023. Vote APC.

JoeNL22:

Lol.........u are whining yourself.
97%?........bro stop giving yourself high expectations. You will have heart attack when you see its below 43%.

pchukwudi:
It's obvious you have never left Lagos or SW. So no need arguing with you. 43% my foot.

JoeNL22:

Obi will win the south east but not in a landslide, I repeat not in a landslide. It is very obvious you don't know the politics involved and maybe you have been staying under a rock, you have not heard or seen the problems that is happening in the south east.
I have friends and business associates that can travel to their village because of the killings that happen everyday because of BIFARA.

pchukwudi:
1) There will be massive turnout in the SE for presidential election. You are simply not aware of what's going on. People are trooping to INEC offices as early as 6am and others pay as much as 5k to get their PVC. No one is doing that because of Atiku in the SE. I hope so too, provided there is no sit-at-home order on the election day.

2) You don't seem to get the memo that folks are angry with PDP in the SE. Wait you will soon start hearing that those political jobbers you count on are being chased away from communities. Hmmm.......then let's wait and see

3) Turnout is not the same as voting choice/sentiment. Even if only ten people come out in the SE to vote, 9.7 of them with vote for PO. Does that make any sense now? Sure, it does make sense. But am not sure that will happen.

Desperado14:


Yes there has always been multiple contestants in any given Election just like in this current one but in previous elections there has only ever been 2 maximum 3 major players in this field we have 4. All of them popular!

Whether you like it or not APC's choice to run a Muslim Muslim ticket WILL be a factor, it will split votes in the North and lose him votes in the south west.

When APC toppled PDP in 2015 did PDP not have incumbent governors in the states that APC faired well in? Calm down and look at people argument without insulting.

The Insecurity did not start with APC but it continued and escalated under their mandate. Even this one you cannot deny.

All I can see is the vote being split in the North between three Muslims, while in the middle belt the APC and any Fulani wont do well due to recent atrocities carried out under a Fulani APC government.

My opinion will change if one of the Northerners drop out. Until then I can see Obi winning this thing.

Desperado14:


2019 Election Results and voting Numbers. and Tribal Sentimentality of Nigerian Politics. Its a rough analysis but still a good mental exercise.

Atiku will scrape the NE

Rabiu will dominate the NW

NC will slimly go to Obi

SW will likely go to Tinubu but not without significant gain by obi especially if this Muslim-Muslim ticket isnt resolved.

SE SS to go to Obi without much hassle.


Triggering a run-off between Obi and Kwankwaso.

The End!

Desperado14:
The General elections of 2023 is fast approaching and with what could be argued as the most hotly contested presidential race ever. We have four main aspirants from 4 different Geo-political zones- who are vying for the votes of the nation.

Fmr. Governor Tinubu (APC)-South West
Fmr.VP Atiku Abubakar (PDP)-North East
Fmr. Gov Kwankwaso (NNPP)- North West
Fmr. Gov Peter Obi (LP)- South East

I thought it would be a worthwhile assignment to try and pre-emp the balloting outcomes by zones based on voting patterns of the most recent 2019 presidential ballot. The only aspirant to have competed in the 2019 elections was Atiku Abubakar, who went up against and lost to the current incumbent Buhari. On the table below is a breakdown of the votes in 2019 by state and by geo-political zones.

North East: A total of 4,510,220 votes were registered with Buhari winning 72% of the votes against Atiku's 28%. It was a particularly dismal showing for Atiku as this was his "Home Region", he hails from Adamawa state a state he barely secured victory in with 50.5% of the votes.

North West: By far the largest voting Bloc in the nation a total of 7,439,087 were registered in 2019 in which Buhari again confidently won with 74% of the votes in comparison to Atiku's 26%.

North Central: A zone I dub the "King Maker" region, its diverse ethnic groups and religious fluidity makes the regions very unpredictable to call and who ever carries this region usually emerges victorious. With a total of 4,100,106 registered Buhari again won this region with 56% of the Votes to Atiku's 43%.

South East: Coming in at just 2,117,100 registered votes Atiku performed incredibly well in this zone with 80% of the ballots going his way to Buhari's abysmal 19%.

South West: Another hotly contested region of the election Buhari carried 52% of the 3,937,559 votes with Atiku carrying 45%. Even though this Zone was touted as an APC bastion the votes suggested otherwise.

South South: A zone who's voting patterns closely mirrors that of the SE, 3,305,754 votes were cast here with Atiku securing a very impressive 68% of the vote against Buhari’s 32%.

Conclusions that can be drawn from the 2019 Election as it relates to its 2023 sequel are as follows; Atiku for a man that has competed in numerous elections through out the last 3 decades and has held the 2nd highest office in the land remains a peripheral player. He barely won his Home State and was resoundingly crushed by another Northerner and Muslim in his home North East Zone. Even if he wins his state and zone this time round will he be able to stave of Rabiu Kwankwaso from eating a significant chunk of those votes?

In the Northwest were Kwankwaso is from and extremely popular by all accounts. I do not expect any of the other to have a significant share of the votes. The North central is almost impossible to predict. Atiku scored 43% of the vote last time round but I expect Obi and Tinubu to have a large say in this Zone as well.

It’s safe to say that the huge and overwhelming Atiku victories in the South East and South South will all but disappear with Peter Obi in the field. I would be shocked if Obi does not register a 90% tally in these zones. The South West I believe will go to Tinubu but not to the extent he is banking on the PDP party apparatus is strong here and with the amount of non-indigenous ethnic immigrants in this zone I expect Kwankwaso and Obi to have a share in the voting pie as well.
So last last we can try and make predictions, therefore I have assigned percentages of votes to all contestants for each zone (See 2nd table).

JoeNL22:

Your analysis is so correct right now. I did not expect the backlash and protests from Nigerians concerning the Muslim ticket. The Christians and the youths are fully for obi. And I have have to re-do my calculations again. Truly you are a genius.

Desperado14:


Ah I'm not a genius. I can just see that the people are changing from docile subservient political pawns to active members of a democracy. Well atleast in the Middle belt and South. The norther populous are still under the suzreinty of Uthman Dan Fodio and his descendants...

I mean is it up to 2 years ago that the lekki toll gate shooting happened. With an APC government in both the state and federal level willfully pleading ignorance of the situation.

I am sorry but if Nigeria forgives and forgets that atrocity aswell as the many other atrocities endured under this APC government by rewarding them with another 8 years, then they deserve whatever tragedy comes their way.

Desperado14:


2019 Election Results and voting Numbers. and Tribal Sentimentality of Nigerian Politics. Its a rough analysis but still a good mental exercise.

Atiku will scrape the NE

Rabiu will dominate the NW

NC will slimly go to Obi

SW will likely go to Tinubu but not without significant gain by obi especially if this Muslim-Muslim ticket isnt resolved.

SE SS to go to Obi without much hassle.


Triggering a run-off between Obi and Kwankwaso.

The End!

kingmaster2009:



Foolish and Biased analysis

I wouldn't want to give details of my own side of story .....let Obi rely on this false analysis so that he can fail woefully.....

Who will give Obi 90 percent in the north central ...

Even the south-soith and south -east if atiku could reconcile with the PDP G-5 Obi might not have 90 percent of the votes in the that two regions....it is either Atiku do the needful or give Obi chance to clear the 90 percent in that region....and in south west. . we have strong structure of PDP being opposition party and A Yoruba state very stronghold for Jagaban ....
Atiku has upper chances than Obi because of his dominant in the north, party structure in the entire federation.....however, Tinubu to win the election he has to do the impossibility because he has the slim chances of winning ....all the APC structure in different states except southwest, North central, and some part of Nw where Shetima came from, have not being so supportive and trustworthy ....so, despite the fact that Jagaban could have been spending money in ensuring those structure work adequately for him, that hasn't yielded any fruitful results ....
The mistake APC did was by anointing wrong person as their presidential flag-bearer ....if the flag-bearer could have been Senate president or Amaechi of Rivers, this could have been good for APC ...because, Amaechi will divide votes of Obi in the south east and south south ...and he will take the entire south west because of Party structure and he will also take some part of the north ....

But in Jagaban case, he doesn't have the charisma to sell himself and