₦airaland Forum

babyfaceafrica:
Social media doesn't mean much in Nigeria political land space. Your analysis is fair though
. But saying social media will play anything with votes is unrealistic. How many Nigerians are on the Internet?

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

usibengate:
Baba should forget votes from Edo. Edo nor be Lagos still subsist, despite......??

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

FreeStuffsNG:
2023 is APC versus PDP and APC's Asiwaju Tinubu will win by landslide in NW, SW, NC and NE. SE is PDP to slug out with the mushroom parties while SS will be shared between APC and PDP.
Any other party is a mushroom party and just wasting their time and resources.

sotall:


Who dash Emilokan 38% for Edo?

Kaiser20:
So said a shaky shaky voter for his shaky shaky candidate

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

hysteriabox:
Tinubu win Plateau? I laugh in agbadolia!
Oya na... Till then.

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

H100:
According to the trends data, using the past 7 (seven) days' filter 03-08-2022 to 10-08-2022.

OVERALL AVERAGE

Bola Ahmed Tinubu (49%)
Atiku Abubakar (26%)
Peter Obi (48%)
Rabiu Kwankwaso (3%)

There are still about 6 months before February 2023, but I can tell you that the significant contest will be between Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar.

There are also going to be lots of surprises, more swing states or battleground states are emerging.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu leads with about 15 states: Ekiti, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Kwara, Lagos, Jigawa, Plateau, Niger, Kogi, Kaduna, Bauchi, Borno, and Taraba.

It's good to share that in Lagos, Bola Ahmed Tinubu had 41%, while Peter Obi is at 38%.

Can Lagos be a swing state?

Next, Peter Obi leads with about 13 states: Edo, Delta, Benue, Nasarawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Imo, Bayelsa, Abia, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu.

Do you know that the FCT will also be a battleground?

Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Peter Obi 37% each, according to the trends at this time.

Next, Atiku Abubakar with about 8 states: Kebbi, Yobe, Katsina, Sokoto, Zamfara, Gombe, Adamawa and Kano.

Yes, I was equally surprised with the traction from Kano - Atiku Abubakar 33%, Bola Ahmed Tinubu 26%, Rabiu Kwankwaso 24%, and Peter Obi 17%.

It’s good to share that Kwankwaso’s highest traction is from Kano, but they also have been growing in Jigawa, Katsina, Yobe, Bauchi, and Borno State.

SWING STATES OR BATTLEGROUND STATES:

(a) Katsina State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 41%.

(b) Yobe State - Atiku Abubakar 47% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41%.

(c) Lagos State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 41% and Peter Obi 38%.

(d) Kebbi State - Atiku Abubakar 51% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 49%.

(e) Edo State - Peter Obi 43% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 38%.

(f) Plateau State - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 39%.

(g) Jigawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 40% and Atiku Abubakar 39%.

(h) FCT - Peter Obi 37% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37%.

(i) Borno State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 37% and Atiku Abubakar 36%.

(j) Benue State - Peter Obi 41% and Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%.

(k) Nasarawa State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36% and Peter Obi 39%.

(l) Taraba State - Bola Ahmed Tinubu 36%, Peter Obi 34%, and Atiku Abubakar 30%.

Data Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xcoddwJ21tVzj9n0EtJgBPN-jrNWIPSzPp2ssxoC8os/edit?usp=sharing


Credit : Aderogba Otunla

FreeStuffsNG:
2023 is APC versus PDP and APC's Asiwaju Tinubu will win by landslide in NW, SW, NC and NE. SE is PDP to slug out with the mushroom parties while SS will be shared between APC and PDP.
Any other party is a mushroom party and just wasting their time and resources.

khadaffi:
Even me self surprise with this kind yeye stat. After Peter Obi in Edo the second is going to be Atiku. This will be because of the governor having allied with Atiku. There is no BAT in Edo State. The only ones we have reside at kingsquare and only fly during the day. We have killed most of the bats in Edo State due to the large presence of skilled hunters.

kingscare1:
It's a good data representation, at least it came close to everyday realities. But I strongly believe that Peter obi is the predicted surprise that would happen in the 2023 presidential elections due to the power of its viral social media followerships, news, and trends, and coupled with the different bad news everywhere in Nigeria, people need hope, security, and money to buy foodstuff to eat with their families. So Obedient is a natural order of hope in Nigeria now.

Lastly, one cannot underage the power of social media and the reach of the internet, so offline campaign is dying giving way to the digital campaign Revolution. So those saying otherwise are merely wasting their time, after all, change is constant and may not be completely predicted. Apc made a grave mistake by giving the mandate to controversial timubu instead of Osibanjo and the terrible blow is the Muslim-muslim ticket.

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

manutdrichie:
The only error in his analysis

Maobichek:
Not only that, FCT is a no-go-area for APC, even APC Is aware that Abuja will not vote for APC.

FreeStuffsNG:
2023 is APC versus PDP and APC's Asiwaju Tinubu will win by landslide in NW, SW, NC and NE. SE is PDP to slug out with the mushroom parties while SS will be shared between APC and PDP.
Any other party is a mushroom party and just wasting their time and resources.

pinkPUSSY:
HOW CAN TINUBU WIN LAGOS WITH ELECTORAL LAW ON GROUND ?

Despite all the ballot snatching by MC Olumo and writing of results in 2019 yet he performed absmally, how much more now a lot of people are fed up with APC and Buhari is not interested in rigging election for anyone..
Tinubu can only get some votes in Lagos through vote buying since that's is where he lives and another factor that might make him to get some votes is some myopic people that will vote based on tribal affiliation but they are in minority, but he won't win Lagos because a lot of lagosians now see him as a political monster due to his major role during Lekki massacre

As for Platue, Tinubu is coming third, take it or leave it

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.

babyfaceafrica:
Social media doesn't mean much in Nigeria political land space. Your analysis is fair though
. But saying social media will play anything with votes is unrealistic. How many Nigerians are on the Internet?

OGHENAOGIE:
this is the issue with useless statistics... Taraba that PDP ll win clear is what something sat down giving Obi fake stats base on online noise whoever wrote this rubbish should join comedy... Borno yobe zamfara are hard core APC States not even PDP can win let alone Obi... Next year pple ll see that PDP APC ll share over 90 percent of votes...

Onlygrace0:
You're drunk

Faiththatworks:
I'm sure this data was gathered from the Biafran bureau of stastics,Haba this is a very childish representation of what 2023 polls will look like.
How will Peter Obi win any state in the South-south and 2 states in the North Central,that's a terrible fallacy.
Peter Obi will not win the election of 2023,I daresay he won't even come 3rd,if he's able to get up to 2 million votes around Nigeria then he tried.
Delta will be a straight fight between Okowa,Ibori and Omo-Agege,with PDP pulling off a victory,Edo will witness another battle between Oshiomole and Obaseki,I'm sure the margins between both parties will be small with Peter Obi playing the spoiler.
Akwa Ibom,Cross river and Bayelsa will be very tight also,but Peter Obi will play the spoiler again and reduce whatever large difference Atiku will give Asiwaju.
Rivers is not too certain,if Wike continues with his tantrums until the day of election,then It will be too close to call between APC and PDP, remember APC haven't had an elected aspirant in Rivers in 4 yrs,I'm sure it will be very bitter in Rivers this time around, again Obi will be the spoiler for PDP.
It will be a total decimation for Obi in the North-west and North-East,I expect a fierce battle between Atiku and Kwankwanso in the North-west,with Asiwaju playing catch-up,while Atiku and Shettima will battle out the North-East,I see Atiku winning that zone but with little Margin.
The North Central will be a battle between Atiku and Asiwaju,I expect it to be very close with Asiwaju winning kwara,kogi and Nassarawa,while Atiku will take Niger, Taraba,Benue.
Plateau will be too close to call.
I have left the south west and south east out of it because Asiwaju will win the south west,and Obi will win the South-east but the PDP will.be very close in both region.
Seriously Asiwaju will only win this election if he's able to stay very very close to whatever Numbers Atiku and Kwankwanso pull out from the North-west and North-East.
As for Obi,he will just end up spoiling whatever Numbers Atiku should have pulled to win the Election.
I daresay if u add up Obi numbers and Atiku numbers in 2023,it would have been enough to make Atiku the president of Nigeria.
That's a prophecy.
God bless Nigeria.