So Tinubu is mediocrity and terrorist?

Obagreatdatoye:

That's how it should be....u don't vote mediocrity and terrorism because of tribe. Tribe could not save the hundreds killed in ondo Catholic church....our survival as a Christian comes first before tribe..thanks

Nyamuri:
Sabon birni

Sabon Birni is a LGA in Sokoto.

Where in Sabon Birni is your family house and who is the Mai Garin?

IamAtikulate:

As long as Obi is on the ballot, Tinubu can never win the South. Are you saying Tinubu will win the election without the South?

Lol......you obviously don't understand the calculations. I laff..........
The calculations are very simple but you can't see it.

naijapips04:


Tinubu 60% SW, 30% NE, 20%NC. Atiku 70% NW 40%NC, 60%SS This is their path to victory. Just ignore SE.

Atiku 60% in SS? 40% in NC? You must be joking.

Peter Obi has slimmed Atiku's chances in SW, SS and SE. Even in NC. Peter Obi is making this election easier for Tinubu to win.

Nyamuri:
So u mean to say SE/SS won't vote PO! Or what do u mean?

As long as PO gets 50% of SE/SS votes, then it's game over for Atiku

Exactly what I told him

Malam Umaru Sanda

IamAtikulate:

Sabon Birni is a LGA in Sokoto.

Where in Sabon Birni is your family house and who is the Mai Garin?

Okoroawusa:

Atiku 60% in SS? 40% in NC? You must be joking.

Peter Obi has slimmed Atiku's chances in SW, SS and SE. Even in NC. Peter Obi is making this election easier for Tinubu to win.

SS is core PDP.

omenka:
Nothing but the truth. The only chance Atiku has got to pose a significant threat to Tinubu's victory is having Obi throw in the towel in support of him. Even at that, there's a snag: how would the same people who claim to want a shift from the old guards make a sudden about-face to support Atiku?

Also, with the insecurity currently ravaging the East, what hope is there any significant votes would be coming therefrom?

Exactly. The number of votes from the South East in 2023 will be lesser than it was in 2019 and even at that majority of it will be for Peter Obi. So where are Atiku's vote coming from?

naijapips04:


SS is core PDP.

We know but Peter Obi will get substantial votes from some of those that normally vote for PDP in the SS. He has weakened the voting strength of PDP in the SS already.

omenka:
Nothing but the truth. The only chance Atiku has got to pose a significant threat to Tinubu's victory is having Obi throw in the towel in support of him. Even at that, there's a snag: how would the same people who claim to want a shift from the old guards make a sudden about-face to support Atiku?

Also, with the insecurity currently ravaging the East, what hope is there any significant votes would be coming therefrom?

Exactly. It’s already locked, both will contest on separate ticket and they will pave way for Tinubu to win.

Okoroawusa:

We know but Peter Obi will get substantial votes from some of those that normally vote for PDP in the SS. He has weakened the voting strength of PDP in the SS already.

That is why I said at least 60%. SS will always vote PDP.

LegendHero:


Atiku is overrated.

People are just being deluded because most of Atiku votes in 2019 come from SW + SS because the PDP got more votes in the SW than they got even in the SE. Those votes are non-existent now as PDP is now more weaker in the South than they were in 2019.

In the North Central, no candidate APC/PDP can lay claim to the majority votes, the votes will cancel each other. So the effect will be negligible.

Even in the North, Atiku cannot boast currently that he will win any region with overwhelming votes judging at APC structures and the fact that Atiku is not as popular as Buhari.

If Peter Obi and Atiku continue to contest on separate tickets, Asiwaju will win that election in 2023. Sensible people will know this.

Go and check the presidential results of 1979, I think Atiku will nick it just like Shagari

LegendHero:


Bro Tinubu will win the SW with nothing less than 75-80% of the votes.

That 75% is the lowest amount he can get. The indices are already appearing, go into the heart of Yorubaland and take stock.

Aside Lagos where Peter Obi/Atiku will get some votes (which will be divided between them both), Peter obi wont see 30k votes in any SW states up to Kwara.

30-50k votes mean you count 50,000 heads that will go and thumbprint for him in Ekiti for example. I wish him best of luck if he thinks he can get that.

But I’m sure Atiku will perform better in the SW than Obi because there are PDP structure that will want to go to Abuja and they will want to mobilize for him but they will be too few to make much impact.

Loo

LegendHero:


I used overrated for Atiku because of the Southern votes.

No region in Nigeria alone can produce the president. Not North, Not South.

Why I said Atiku is overrated is because in 2019, nearly half of his votes come from the South.

Within those half, most of his votes come from the SW + SS.

Now he is not sure of any region bloc in the South, not SE, not SS, and not SW.

What is his winning formulae?

North can produce Nigeria president all ALONE.
what they will need is just at least 25 percent from few Southern state.and it is not impossible

He should continue lying to himself, after repeating it severally,he will start believing it.

Nyamuri:
Dear Sis

I'm a northerner, Atiku is overrated in the north.. at best, he can only pull 50-55%.. you are being deceived to think just because his a northerner we shall vote him!

He lacks the "amana(trust)" factor.. APC has a very strong structure in the north, the likes of shettima, zulum, el-rufai, wammako,etc are ppl with millions of followers

APC senators, HOA, Chairman all badly need presidential election to go their way for their political survival.. hence, they do everything in their power to deliver Tinubu

I don't expect u to believe this, but I hope u bookmark this

But PDP doesn't have governor's in South South, south east and south west?
This election is taking shape and becoming a regional battle.
It is only Atiku that has the national spread to win the 2023 election.
I am predicting a repeat of 1979 presidential election were Shagari was returned winner.

Nyamuri:
So Tinubu is mediocrity and terrorist?

You know the rest....

Nyamuri:
Lol! I'm a northerner, and yes Atiku is overrated in the north! Tinubu will give him a run for his money

At best, Atiku can win the north against Tinubu with 50-55% margin

you may be a northerner but the way you analyse is not different from what any Apc card carrying member will do
If truly you are from North you know what's on ground not this gibberish you're dishing out
Mind you I'm not a northerner but I reside there majority are voting for Atiku but not me

Nyamuri:
Lol! I'm a northerner, and yes Atiku is overrated in the north! Tinubu will give him a run for his money

At best, Atiku can win the north against Tinubu with 50-55% margin

All these Yorubas that have become Northerners automatically on Nairaland.

BigSarah:


SS/SE always give single pattern block votes, It's either 85% or 15%.

If it's Obi he won't get less than 85%, if it's atiku 85%

If Obi doesn't garner more support from outsiders like Gej did in 2011, SESS won't vote him, that's a fact...

That's a fact? It's interesting seeing us becoming specialised forecasters and analysts on Nairaland.

The funny thing is how all our opinions translates to online FACTS...kudos for the facts dear.

WhatCanIsay:


That's a fact? It's interesting seeing us becoming specialised forecasters and analysts on Nairaland.

The funny thing is how all our opinions translates to online FACTS...kudos for the facts dear.

The SESS have a VP candidate in this election already, so there's no reason to go for a wild goose chase and loose two ways,.

If PO doesn't garner real electoral momentum like Gej in 2011, SESS will abandon him, even he himself will drop out

BigSarah:


The SESS have a VP candidate in this election already, so there's no reason to go for a wild goose chase and loose two ways,.

If PO doesn't garner real electoral momentum like Gej in 2011, SESS will abandon him, even he himself will drop out

SE/SS voters are fully backing Peter Obi, come rain come shine, 2023 election is more than normal election for many Nigerians. It's no more simply about the politicians, especially in the Southern Nigeria; a statement is to be made against the status quo (the big political parties) that has taken us nowhere but backwards.

2023 is beyond armchair analysts.

WhatCanIsay:


SE/SS voters are fully backing Peter Obi, come rain come shine, 2023 election is more than normal election for many Nigerians. It's no more simply about the politicians, especially in the Southern Nigeria; a statement is to be made against the status quo (the big political parties) that has taken us nowhere but backwards.

2023 is beyond armchair analysts.

Time will tell

BigSarah:


Time will tell

Better, than terming your opinions as FACTS.

BigSarah:


Atiku popularity in the North is not overrated, Tinubu popularity in the North is overrated.

Peter Obi's popularity is non-existent (only in cities with Christian population)...

ENI PE

LegendHero:


Bro Tinubu will win the SW with nothing less than 75-80% of the votes.

That 75% is the lowest amount he can get. The indices are already appearing, go into the heart of Yorubaland and take stock.

Aside Lagos where Peter Obi/Atiku will get some votes (which will be divided between them both), Peter obi wont see 30k votes in any SW states up to Kwara.

30-50k votes mean you count 50,000 heads that will go and thumbprint for him in Ekiti for example. I wish him best of luck if he thinks he can get that.

But I’m sure Atiku will perform better in the SW than Obi because there are PDP structure that will want to go to Abuja and they will want to mobilize for him but they will be too few to make much impact.

You are still talking about structures

Shock awaits you..

there will be No APc rally in the North West, middle belt , SS,SE without monetary inducements,

APc have failed woefully, and the people are tired,

Did you see the labour rally in Taraba, guess not,

Delusion of grandeur, anyway jagajaga urchins can continue to deceive themselves.

LegendHero:


Bro Tinubu will win the SW with nothing less than 75-80% of the votes.

That 75% is the lowest amount he can get. The indices are already appearing, go into the heart of Yorubaland and take stock.

Aside Lagos where Peter Obi/Atiku will get some votes (which will be divided between them both), Peter obi wont see 30k votes in any SW states up to Kwara.

30-50k votes mean you count 50,000 heads that will go and thumbprint for him in Ekiti for example. I wish him best of luck if he thinks he can get that.

But I’m sure Atiku will perform better in the SW than Obi because there are PDP structure that will want to go to Abuja and they will want to mobilize for him but they will be too few to make much impact.

How do you people make this analysis?
Do you base your calculations on some luck or hope or or rigging or what?

What gives you guys this kind of mad audacity to make wild projections this way without any scientific bases?

Do you know how evil APC is? Do you assume the juju will still work like that?

APC just recently got terribly defeated in the home state of Tinubu himself. Does it says anything to you? That was not even the first time. The last time was a daylight robbery that Buhari himself admitted that they won by remote control.

APC did not even win the presidential election in Ondo in 2019, despite all the suppression of votes and INEC's postponement of the election by a week.

Many of those governors in the north are on their last term, should it not say something to you? The northwest governors had even called for the replacement of Shetima by one of them - apparently to get their total commitment. In any case, will they rig again with the new INEC method? Time will tell.

The only way the APC candidate can win this election is by massive election rigging in connivance with INEC. And that would be a very disastrous thing for the country.

Elections should normally reflect the mood of the nation. If human nature is taken into consideration, no living things gravitate towards its predator if given a choice. Humans are the highest living organism in this world. When given a choice, nornal Humans run away from predators to avoid destructions and death. Only people in bondage don't have any choice. APC is currently a predator party in Nigeria - From west, east, north and south.

Are these 75-80% voters in South West not part of the destroyed economy? Are they not the same people who cannot send their children to you again? Are they not the people who are being killed in their farms on a consistent basis while the APC presidential candidate and his supporters accuse them of making those killings up? Are they not the same people being owed salaries for many months?

People cannot even eat food. Is it not just this past week that a young man committed suicide because of financial difficulties in the same South West?

Young men cannot even get married again. Thousands of school leavers are not doing anything. Youths are now more attracted to internet scam than ever before. Increase in ritual murders is indicative of people's desperation.

Are you saying South West people are blind to all these and would reward these plagues with 75-80% votes?

Democracy is beautiful when it rewards good deeds with votes and punishes evil and satanic performances of political parties with defeat at the polls. When parties do well, it shows immediately on the wellbeing of the citizens. Businesses thrive, lives are prolonged, people proper. They eat good food. Get married. Raise children. Serve God. None of these can be found in APC record for 7+ years.

When the party cannot be held accountable but becomes boastful as if they own the citizens, then disaster is not far from that polity.

APC is configured to be evil and satanic. No one is allowed to criticize the party and the evil policies. No party member is allowed to show any grievances. No member, no matter how highly placed is allowed to offer any suggestions. Journalists are not allowed to ask any questions or write opinion, they are punished with fines. Protests are suppressed.

This is not the kind of record that should be rewarded with a presidential win.

ObosiUkwalla:
Niggar is soo confused.

Today, he is backing obi, tomorrow he is backing tinubu.

Where did he indicate he is backing Tinubu? Seun only uses logic to determine the most probable outcome of the election.

Any pragmatically intelligent political analyst, well aware of the reality of Nigeria, will come to the conclusion Seun has. Regardless of who they are supporting.

Seun is not stable at all, today is Tinubu, tomorrow is Obi

But he forgot that the southern votes will be evenly distributed among the three candidates while the northern votes cannot be evenly distributed due to their voting pattern, although they will not be very high bloc votes this time around.

My prediction is in this order

Northern votes

Atiku--------------------------------45%
Tinubu-----------------------------30%
Obi----------------------------------15%
Kwankwaso and others -----10%


Southern votes
Tinubu-----------------------------35%
Obi----------------------------------32%
Atiku--------------------------------30%
Kwankwaso and others------3%

The winner is going to emerge with small margin. Atiku is going to be the winner.

2023 presidential election results between the winner and the runner up will look exactly like the last Osun governorship election result.

WhatCanIsay:


Better, than terming your opinions as FACTS.

Don't mind these people. Allow them to keep dreaming. E go shock them the voting revolution coming in 2023. One even said that PO will loss SE to Atiku...Talk is cheap, no point to engage them...we will meet at the polls in 2023 February