raumdeuter:
aaa

The only states in the SW where Obi will see 20% is Lagos. The further you go into the interior the lesser the numbers for Obi

In places like Oyo, Osun Ekiti Ondo, Its straight fight between APC and PDP nothing like Labor in those places

Na only where Ibo traders dey dem go vote Labor

So revised

Lagos
Tinubu 56% obi 32% atiku 10% nnpp 2%

Ogun
Tinubu 65% obi 15% atiku 20%

Ondo
Tinubu 65% obi 10% atiku 25%

Ekiti
Tinubu 80% obi 5% atiku 15%

Osun
Tinubu 60% obi 5% atiku 35%

Oyo
Tinubu 65% obi 10% atiku 23% nnpp 2%

I go with this stat

garfield1:


Oga,its gone beyond structure.95% of igbos anywhere will vote obi.even pdp chieftains like Dan ulasi and others on AIT said that they are being threatened in the se.its an Igbo agenda.

This is the very closest you have given since all your predictions, however, you understand that a Yoruba man is on the ballot. The way he will win you will see.

Leave SM, Lagos is the only place he will face some sort of challenge, yet win big because PDP and LP are sharing their votes. Osun, Ondo (that's if he reconciles with Wike) & Oyo is where Atiku hopes to close the gap.

Ojo LGA is a PDP fortress, alongside Amuwo-Odofin LGA. They have won all the Presidential elections there since '07 but now APC will likely take it.

The Vice-Chairman of the LGA is Igbo, the PDP Guber Candidate is from the LGA, the Lagos State APC Chairman is from the Zone. Candidates the APC gave their tickets to (HoA & co) are grassroots-men. I mean die-hards.......

With PDP/LP doing their thing, it gives APC the upper hand. That's how it's going to be in parts of the State.

Penguin2:
Obi will come second in all Southwest states.

All those who voted PDP in Southwest in 2019 voted for Obi and not Atiku.

You can take this to POS and cash out.

It's not possible.

PDP will become 2nd and reasons is their structures

garfield1:


He has defeated him in lagos already. Atiku will take third nationally

I dont think you know what you are saying

Atiku will be either 1st or 2nd

lhordspy:


PDP votes are usually scattered across all part.

Apapa, ikorudu, bagary, ikeja

In the last election i can remember so well.
In Apapa PDP had i think 11k - APC 12k
Ikorudu PDP had roughly 21k
Bagary -17k
Ikeja - 21k roughtly or more.


But Apapa and Ikeja was the closet for wheatever reasons.

Those are places Ibo traders dominate and most are going for Obi

raumdeuter:


Which Local Govt in Lagos gives PDP the most votes? And how will those people vote this time

He's somewhat right.

I definitely believe Pdp will come 2nd in Lagos.

Reasons
1. structures
2. Not only igbos are PDP members in Lagos.

raumdeuter:


Those are places Ibo traders dominate and most are going for Obi

Hmm, lets see how it plays out. But it aint complicated to me. Atiku is coming second.

Give me your analyses by percentage let me see. With a 5million expected voters turnout.

lhordspy:


Hmm, lets see how it plays out. But it aint complicated to me. Atiku is coming second.

Give me your analyses by percentage let me see. With a 5million expected voters turnout.

I dont believe in a 5m turnout it will likely be half of that

This is my prediction based on 2.5m turnout


Tinubu gets 1.5M Obi gets 700k Atiku gets 300K

fergie001:

This is the very closest you have given since all your predictions, however, you understand that a Yoruba man is on the ballot. The way he will win you will see.

Leave SM, Lagos is the only place he will face some sort of challenge, yet win big because PDP and LP are sharing their votes. Osun, Ondo (that's if he reconciles with Wike) & Oyo is where Atiku will try to close the gap.

Ojo LGA is a PDP fortress. They have won all the Presidential elections there since '07 but now APC will likely take it. The Vice-Chairman of the LGA is Igbo, the PDP Guber Candidate is from the LGA, there is a heavy population of Igbos there and again the Lagos State APC Chairman is from the Zone.

With PDP/LP doing their thing, it gives APC the upper hand. That's how it's going to be on parts of the State.

I still believe PDP will come 2nd in Lagos.

But I think Lagos is the only place where LP will have a very high amount of votes in SW

majole:


I tend to agree with you this time on the SW. My own rough estinste:
LAGOS TINUBU 60% PO 25% ATIKU 14%
OSUN TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OYO TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OGUN TINUBU 57% PO 22% ATIKU 20%
EKITI TINUBU 63% PO 17% ATIKU 19%
ONDO TINUBU 55% PO 23% ATIKU 20%

Outside lagos,obi will perform poorly.he won't get up to 20%.you need to assess the strength of the party first.theres no how obi and atiku will get more votes in Oyo than Ogun.in Ogun,almost all the opposition are in apc.pdp doesnt even have a candidate.buhari has always done well in Ogun

raumdeuter:


I dont believe in a 5m turnout it will likely be half of that

This is my prediction based on 2.5m turnout


Tinubu gets 1.5M Obi gets 700k Atiku gets 300K

In that case. Obi having 700k out of 2.5 is a good bargain for him.... Very good bargain. The highest but him and his supporter can hope for.

Sammy07:
I still believe PDP will come 2nd in Lagos.

Well, whatever it may, they will be doing Tinubu a big favour because votes will divide, however, if the election is done today oooo... PDP will be distant third.

But I think Lagos is the only place where LP will have a very high amount of votes in SW.

That's obvious.

majole:


I tend to agree with you this time on the SW. My own rough estinste:
LAGOS TINUBU 60% PO 25% ATIKU 14%
OSUN TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OYO TINUBU 60% PO 10% ATIKU 28%
OGUN TINUBU 57% PO 22% ATIKU 20%
EKITI TINUBU 63% PO 17% ATIKU 19%
ONDO TINUBU 55% PO 23% ATIKU 20%

Lol, Peter Obi cannot get more votes than Atiku in Ogun and Ondo states. He also can’t get 10% in Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo and Osun.

lhordspy:


In that case. Obi having 700k out of 2.5 is a good bargain for him.... Very good bargain. The highest but him and his supporter can hope for.

Yes and thats one of the highest they can get in any Southern state. The other states dont have 700k votes or they will be shared with PDP like in Rivers

fergie001:

Well, whatever it may, they will be doing Tinubu a big favour because votes will divide, however, if the election is done today oooo... PDP will be distant third.


That's obvious.

Jandor and Funky are not doing their works.
Sometimes, I forget they're in the race

fergie001:

This is the very closest you have given since all your predictions, however, you understand that a Yoruba man is on the ballot. The way he will win you will see.

Leave SM, Lagos is the only place he will face some sort of challenge, yet win big because PDP and LP are sharing their votes. Osun, Ondo (that's if he reconciles with Wike) & Oyo is where Atiku hopes to close the gap.

Ojo LGA is a PDP fortress, alongside Amuwo-Odofin LGA. They have won all the Presidential elections there since '07 but now APC will likely take it.

The Vice-Chairman of the LGA is Igbo, the PDP Guber Candidate is from the LGA, the Lagos State APC Chairman is from the Zone. Candidates the APC gave their tickets to (HoA & co) are grassroots-men. I mean die-hards.......

With PDP/LP doing their thing, it gives APC the upper hand. That's how it's going to be in parts of the State.

Even in se,I gave obi at least 70%.in se,sw,it will turn tribal as both regions hold a kind of beef.lagos is the only place where tinubu will struggle.no reconciliation will prevent tinubu from clearing Oyo and ondo just as nothing can stop obi in anambra...

Atuma has won onuigbo in court...
How did ASUU branches vote?

seunmsg:


Lol, Peter Obi cannot get more votes than Atiku in Ogun and Ondo states. He also can’t get 10% in Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo and Osun.

Labour is strong in ondo.

Hope you normal Omo igbo we are talking about yoruba land and not your 5% region. It only Lagos Obituary can do gragra all other states we no sabi Obituary

Penguin2:
Obi will come second in all Southwest states.

All those who voted PDP in Southwest in 2019 voted for Obi and not Atiku.

You can take this to POS and cash out.

raumdeuter:


I dont think you know what you are saying

Atiku will be either 1st or 2nd

Atiku can only win two or one of ne/nw/ss narrowly

garfield1:


Atiku can only win two or one of ne/nw/ss narrowly

Atiku will clear the entire NE minus Borno and Yobe

Atiku has a good chance in all NW and NC states

garfield1:


Dreams sometimes become reality.you yourself said obi is struggling anioma with okowa..
Nenadi usman a strong woman in kad south is now with obi

Only in Lag will LP surpass PDP in the SW.
U never ceases to amaze me
So you believe Sen Nenadi is strong and Sen Markafi is lightweight abi?
My SW prediction
Lagos: APC 55 PDP 20% LP 25%
Ogun: APC 65 PDP 25 LP 10%
Ondo: APC 55% PDP 25% LP 20%
Osun: APC 60% PDP 35% LP 5%
Ekiti: APC 80% PDP 15% LP 5%
Oyo: APC 70% PDP 25% LP 5%
Total percentage:
APC:64.17%
PDP:24.16%
LP:11.66%

garfield1:


Even in se,I gave obi at least 70%.in se,sw,it will turn tribal as both regions hold a kind of beef.lagos is the only place where tinubu will struggle.no reconciliation will prevent tinubu from clearing Oyo and ondo just as nothing can stop obi in anambra...
Atuma has won onuigbo in court...
How did ASUU branches vote?

Mimiko controls the PDP in Ondo so if he reconciles with Atiku, he might close the gap. This election is not about whether you win or not but how you win in your strongholds.

The win has to be very comprehensive to give you a chance coupled with the 25% of 24 States, you need to get. Not Lagos or SE, even in the North, I have said it countless times that this election will be ethnic, no contest on that. All these ones you are giving 70% upandan, even in the North, it's not gonna be a smooth sail.

I heard about Atuma's case since last week nah. I expect Ogar to also lose as well.

Don't know about the voting, but they will hold NEC tomorrow, call off Friday and return to classes on Monday.

Aiel123:


Lagos: APC 55 PDP 20% LP 25%
Ogun: APC 65 PDP 25 LP 10%
Ondo: APC 55% PDP 25% LP 20%
Osun: APC 60% PDP 35% LP 5%
Ekiti: APC 80% PDP 15% LP 5%
Oyo: APC 70% PDP 25% LP 5%
Total percentage:
APC:64.17%
PDP:24.16%
LP:11.66%

Likely. You're closer even more accurate

garfield1:


Atiku can only win two or one of ne/nw/ss narrowly

Haaaaa, you are also talking about a Zone that has never produced the President before, are you aware?

Sammy07:
Jandor and Funky are not doing their works.
Sometimes, I forget they're in the race

Are you hoping on them? Baba dey wait money nah.
Sanwo-Olu is already running his second term.. he is not even campaigning, tbh, he need not bother. He is not really that Fashola type but I still can't call him a bad Gov. I think he gets more criticisms because of his oga than because of his person.

Jandor's PU is some kilometres from my family house but I don't think I have ever seen or heard people talking about him whenever I come around. Again, not far from the Alaba International/Alaba Rago where 90/100 persons there will vote Obi/Kwankwaso. It's a dead end, don't bother campaigning is the message.

garfield1:


Labour is strong in ondo.

Not at all. That about 200 people came out for the Obi rally in Akure doesn’t mean the party is strong in the state. LP won’t get 10% in Ondo state.

Sammy07:



Likely. You're closer even more accurate

That's how I believe the election will pan out
Yorubas has never voted for another candidate when their son is on the ballot.
It won't change now.

seunmsg:


Not at all. That about 200 people came out for the Obi rally in Akure doesn’t mean the party is strong in the state. LP won’t get 10% in Ondo state.

Kadoso Mutairu! Fictitious figures and stats as usual. You know everything.

Make I help you correct your nonsense

Lagos
Tinubu 52% Obi 28% Atiku 18% nnpp 2%

Ogun
Tinubu 60% Obi 10% Atiku 30%

Ondo
Tinubu 56% Obi 8% Atiku 36%

Ekiti
Tinubu 65% Obi 5% Atiku 30%

Osun
Tinubu 40% Obi 5% Atiku 55%

We just wan teach that baba and hai cousin more lessons.

Oyo
Tinubu 40% Obi 10% Atiku 50%

I deliberately give Tinubu 40 here that's if Makinde and his boys allow people vote their conscience, but if put madness together with it Atiku will sweep Oyo state. I discussed this with some guys today. Atiku actually needs reconcile aggrieved party members sha

garfield1:


In 2015 and 2019,buhari got 55% in sw.it can increase to 60%.lp and pdp are almost from the same pool or sharing same supporters in the sw except for new voters.the remaining 40%-45% will be shared by both parties.


Lagos
Tinubu 50% obi 38% atiku 10% nnpp 2%

Ogun
Tinubu 65% obi 15% atiku 20%

Ondo
Tinubu 60% obi 15% atiku 25%

Ekiti
Tinubu 80% obi 5% atiku 15%

Osun
Tinubu 55% obi 10% atiku 35%

Oyo
Tinubu 60% obi 15% atiku 23% nnpp 2%



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fergie001:

Are you hoping on them? Baba dey wait money nah.
Sanwo-Olu is already running his second term.. he is not even campaigning, tbh, he need not bother. He is not really that Fashola type but I still can't call him a bad Gov. I think he gets more criticisms because of his oga than because of his person.

Jandor's PU is some kilometres from my family house but I don't think I have ever seen or heard people talking about him whenever I come around. Again, not far from the Alaba International/Alaba Rago where 90/100 persons there will vote Obi/Kwankwaso. It's a dead end, don't bother campaigning is the message.

Shey wahala no too much bayi.
Probably because PDP no produce strong candidate

seunmsg:


Lol, Peter Obi cannot get more votes than Atiku in Ogun and Ondo states. He also can’t get 10% in Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo and Osun.

Kadoso Mutairu!