Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) - Politics - Nairaland
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| Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 5:47pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
1. Southeast Abia: LP 75:, PDP: 15%, others: 10% Anambra: LP: 80%, others 20% Imo: LP: 70% APC: 20%, others: 10% Ebonyi: LP: 70% APC: 20% Others:10% Enugu: LP: 75% PDP: 15% Others: 10% Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure. 2. Southwest Lagos: APC: 60% LP: 35% Others: 15% Ogun: APC: 65% LP:25% Others: 10% Osun APC: 65% PDP:15% LP: 15% Others: 5% Ondo APC: 60% LP: 25% Others: 15% Oyo APC: 50% PDP: 20% LP: 25% Others: 10% Ekiti APC: 70% LP: 20% PDP: 10% Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these. APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways. 3. North Central Kwara APC: 65% PDP: 20% Others: 15% Kogi APC: 35% PDP: 30% LP: 25% Others: 10% Nasarawa PDP: 30% APC: 30% LP: 30% NNPP: 10% Abuja: LP: 40% PDP: 30% APC: 20% NNPP: 10% Niger APC: 35% PDP: 35% LP: 15% NNPP: 15% Benue LP: 55% PDP: 25% Others: 20% Plateau LP: 35% APC: 30% PDP: 20% Others: 15% This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here. Northeast Borno APC: 50% PDP: 30% NNPP: 10% Adamawa: PDP: 70% APC: 10% NNPP: 10% LP: 10% Yobe PDP: 50% APC: 30% NNPP: 15% LP: 5% Gombe PDP: 50% APC: 30% NNPP: 15% LP: 5% Taraba PDP: 50% LP: 30% APC: 10% NNPP: 10% Others: 5% Bauchi PDP: 60% APC: 15% NNPP: 15% Others: 10% Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region. Southsouth Rivers LP: 60% PDP: 25% Others: 15% Akwa ibom LP: 50% PDP: 40% Others 10% Edo LP: 45% PDP: 35% APC: 15% Others: 5% Bayelsa LP: 50% PDP: 40% Others: 10% Delta LP: 50% PDP: 40% Others: 10% Crossriver LP: 55% PDP: 25% APC: 10% Others: 10% Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all. Northwest Kano NNPP: 45% APC: 30% PDP: 20% Others: 5% Kaduna APC: 30% NNPP: 25% PDP: 20% LP: 15% Jigawa NNPP: 30% APC: 30% PDP: 30% Others: 10% Kebbi: APC: 35% PDP: 35% NNPP: 20% Others: 10% Katsina: APC: 40% PDP: 35% NNPP: 15% Others: 10% Sokoto PDP: 70% NNPP: 15% Others: 15% Zamfara PDP: 40% APC: 30% NNPP: 15% Others: 10% Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region. Obi won't do well here. Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines. I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP. Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight. 12 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Nobody: 5:50pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Obi is still winning 26 Likes 3 Shares |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by limeta(f): 6:03pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Op when was the last time you were in the North Something have changed with the people of the north With the north you still in 2015 7 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:04pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
limeta:I Run a TV that has been doing polls in the north and it seem to me that they still vote hugely along tribal lines. Atiku will win there 12 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Lawalatm: 6:13pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Y64r analysis is what's giving hope to BAT and Atikulate that they stand a chance.......  Endsars national protest was child's play compared to the tsunami of voters for OBIDATTI in the up coming election. Remember that these same duo have beaten all assumptions e.g online presence only, no physical presence in rallies, no money to finance campaigns, no reasonable running mate after Kwankwazo, etc.....they dwarfed all these early assumptions and more  11 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:18pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Lawalatm:online polls are good, but we cannot overrule the Nigeria effect and rigging as well. This election is between PDP and LP to win. Had Atiku not emerged, Tinubu would have cleared Northwest and Northeast because those guys are not sensible voters by average. Now they have to chose their person against APC structure, this is when Tinubu started losing the election. APC go try, but their bad performance and Tinubu's image will be used against them a lot, even in the north. Had Obi not emerged from Labour Party, The election would have been over before it started because it automatically means that southeast and southsouth will vote for Atiku. He will beat Tinubu to stupor. The emergency of Obi favours Tinubu, in many ways. He wouldn't have had any chance at all 15 Likes 2 Shares |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:18pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara. I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue 5 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by ganisucks(f): 6:19pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Lawalatm: I laff when I see people shouting structchulk up and down. They don't know what they are up against. They don't know what Klaus Schwaab and George Soros can do. By the time they see buses packed with voters going to every polling station, their eye will clear. When for every one APC paid voter, there are 10 LP voters, they will finally start using their brain. 5 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:22pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:It's not about PDP being dead in borno or Yobe, it's about a Fulani man contesting against a Yoruba man to them. That only will sell Atiku straight. In Northwest, Atiku will get votes as a Fulani man, it will be hard for a Yoruba man to outrightly beat a formidable Fulani man in Fulani/hausaland. Northerners are very very ethnocentric. Kwankwaso might even become second in Northwest if he plays his cards well. It's not a matter of party now, it's a matter of our person. The same thing we Yoruba are doing with Tinubu, but unfortunately, yorubas are not as ethnocentric as Fulanis, this is why someone like me and many others will vote for Peter Obi. 25 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:26pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:sokoto is a PDP state, and Buhari contested against a northerner. This time, A PDP state with Fulani man is contesting against Igbo and Yoruba. Who do you think they will vote? Think if APC don't win in northeast and Northwest, Tinubu ti lule. Atiku na hard nut to crack up north 7 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:34pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:wait, did you just sat APC will win Edo and Rivers? 8 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by limeta(f): 6:38pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: On the street they tell you what is expected of them but their hearts says different |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:39pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Obi will win those two states with apc coming 2nd with 25% 1 Like |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:41pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:how will APC come second in Rivers State that is a staunch PDP structure? Edo is also a PDP state for God sake. Who will vote for APC? Especially one with muslim-muslim ticket and a purported drug dealer. In Rivers, APC may not get 10% 8 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:42pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
limeta:lol ok |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:42pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Sokoto is a 50 50 state.wamakko is the most popular in sokoto.yaradua beat buhari in sokoto,why can't atiku do same? Sokoto will be divided.kwankwaso is also involved 1 Like |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:44pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:Ok, So APC will win A Funlani man in a Fulani state of PDP? Lol Where are you guys getting this hope? 6 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Ransomtheking(m): 6:47pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Cross River is over 60percent l.p 6 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:47pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Your not getting it.it is very difficult to win elections where your party is non existent.even if he is fulani,atiku needs the party to mobilize and preach his gospel.he needs popular or strongmen to defend his votes and mobilize people.abiola defeated tofa a fulani in kano.there are no fulanis in borno and yobe.it is kanuris and shettima is kanuris.they dont mingle with fulanis. Northwest only vote for core fulanis from northwest not outsiders 2 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:48pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Ransomtheking: It is 50 50 bw lp and apc 1 Like 2 Shares |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:49pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: People have started seeing beyond that tribal sentiments.it is about issues.atiku will win sokoto but narrowly and sokoto is dominated by hausas not fulanis 1 Like |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:50pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: The way you reason is funny.who told you states will vote along party lines? If Edo and rivers are pdp,it means atiku will win na... People dont care much about Muslim Muslim.buhari got 25% in rivers,tinubu will get more.asari dokubo will deliver kalabari while magnus Abe will deliver ogoni 1 Like |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:51pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:Yes, when rigging and over-voring where still very easier, not with BVAS and live result on INEC portals, it's harder even if he is fulani,atiku needs the party to mobilize and preach his gospel.he needs popular or strongmen to defend his votes and mobilize people.abiola defeated tofa a fulani in kano.there are no fulanis in borno and yobe.it is kanuris and shettima is kanuris.they dont mingle with fulanis.You think Tinubu is mobilizing more than Atiku in a sokoto that is already PDP? 5 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Ransomtheking(m): 6:51pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:I don't really think you are right,but let's see how it goes,all hands on deck |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:51pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:If states don't vote along party lines then does mean that Labour party can win Lagos? 4 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:53pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:Lol, Does that mean that Peter Obi can win southwest? If people are not seeing tribalism? On what basis would Tinubu win over Peter Obi and Atiku in Edo and Rivers state? 8 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by HitRun(m): 6:53pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Hehehe. Dreamers full this Nigeria abeg |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:53pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Bvas is not very different from card reader.it is a machine and can be manipulated.dont forget human beings input those datas into the bvas. Wamakko is stronger than tambuwal in sokoto. He is mobilizing more for tinubu 1 Like 1 Share |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:53pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Yes if he mobilizes more and weakens apc |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:54pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Osamabinladenik: Yes they can.some states vote party lines,some do not. |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by Osamabinladenik: 6:55pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
garfield1:Nope, BVAS is different from card reader in the sense that it first reads your card then scans your finger print. If your finger print doesn't tally, you are out even if your card is read. Hope you get it? And results will be readmitted live from polling Units and not after collation. Stop rigging has been minimized So give us an analysis from non-rigging perspective 6 Likes |
| Re: Prediction Of Election By States (if Things Don't Change) by garfield1: 6:55pm On Nov 13, 2022 |
Ransomtheking: Obi is only strong in urban areas like calabar,ugep,ikom,ogoja but inside villages like aningeje,owakande,adim, who knows him? 3 Likes 1 Share |
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