Osamabinladenik:
Kogi will not be won convincingly.

All together in 19 northern states, even if Tinubu win 9, he will still not have 24 states in the bag plus 6 I southwest. Can't you see it?

I doubt if Tinubu can win 9 out of 19 though

You gave tinubu 35% and obi 25% in kogi.you gave tinubu 65% in kwara and obi 10%.you gave obi 55% and tinubu 20% in benue.in fct,you gave all parties 30%.you gave tinubu 35% in niger and obi 15%.you gave obi 35% in plateau and tinubj 30%.this means tinubu wins nc narrowly followed by obi...

You dont need to win 24 states.you need to get 25% in 24 states and get the highest votes.whether you win one state does not matter.

Osamabinladenik:
Nobody knows Tinubu is southsouth dude, unless you want to make yourself happy .

Tinubu will be distant 3rd there and you know it deep down

My dear,the way things are,tinubu will beat atiku in ss.most of pdp in ss have abandoned him.wike is against him.most atiku fans are now with obi

Osamabinladenik:
Tinubu needs to get at least 25% in 18 northern states out of 19 to remain in the race.
This doesn't even guarantee him a win

Peter Obi needs to get 25% in 10 northern and 3 SW states and win big in SS and SE

Are you ok at all? Is that what the constitution says? This boy

garfield1:


You gave tinubu 35% and obi 25% in kogi.you gave tinubu 65% in kwara and obi 10%.you gave obi 55% and tinubu 20% in benue.in fct,you gave all parties 30%.you gave tinubu 35% in niger and obi 15%.you gave obi 35% in plateau and tinubj 30%.this means tinubu wins nc narrowly followed by obi...

You dont need to win 24 states.you need to get 25% in 24 states and get the highest votes.whether you win one state does not matter.

yeah, you need to get 25% percentage, and it doesn't mean that you have won.
If any other candidates meet the criteria and has more votes ,you still lose. That's where Tinubu will lose

garfield1:


Are you ok at all? Is that what the constitution says? This boy

Tinubu cannot get 25% in any SS and SE state. He should go an fight for 18 25% in the north

Osamabinladenik:
yeah, you need to get 25% percentage, and it doesn't mean that you have won.
If any other candidates meet the criteria and has more votes ,you still lose. That's where Tinubu will lose

Only obi and tinubu will meet the criteria but tinubu will win because he will have more votes nationlly

garfield1:


My dear,the way things are,tinubu will beat atiku in ss.most of pdp in ss have abandoned him.wike is against him.most atiku fans are now with obi

lol, Tinubu will beat Atiku in SS. Joke of the year

garfield1:


Only obi and tinubu will meet the criteria but tinubu will win because he will have more votes nationlly

Atiku will meet the criteria well.
Very well, na him go meet am before Tinubu and Obi sef

Osamabinladenik:
Tinubu cannot get 25% in any SS and SE state. He should go an fight for 18 25% in the north

He will get it in ebonyi,IMO and maybe abia.he will get it in rivers,bayelsa,edo,crs

garfield1:


He will get it in ebonyi,IMO and maybe abia.he will get it in rivers,bayelsa,edo,crs

Lol, you must be high dude.

Nobody will give give emilokan 25% in SE, especially when Obi is contesting.

You are high aswear

Osamabinladenik:
Lol, you must be high dude.

Nobody will give give emilokan 25% in SE, especially when Obi is contesting.

You are high aswear

Buhari got it,tinubu will get it boy

Osamabinladenik:
Atiku will meet the criteria well.
Very well, na him go meet am before Tinubu and Obi sef

Atiku will get the lowest votes.

garfield1:


Atiku will get the lowest votes.

Lol, ok

garfield1:


Buhari got it,tinubu will get it boy

Who be Tinubu

This guy, you don't know what's going on

Osamabinladenik:
lol, Tinubu will beat Atiku in SS. Joke of the year

In rivers,wike has buried him.in aks,the governor is thinking of resigning and pdp is divided.in delta,omo agege is campaigning more than okowa and pdp is divided.in edo,pdp is divided and most are with obi.on bayelsa,diri has not started campaigning.in cross river the pdp is loyal to wike and they have abandoned atiku.

Osamabinladenik:
Ok, So APC will win A Funlani man in a Fulani state of PDP?

Lol

Where are you guys getting this hope?

Yoruba don't reason like dis.. is either u are nyamiri or Fulani.... All your assumption bases on ethnocentrism....

From your suggestion , u had already decleared tinubu as a winner

GoodLife4live:


Yoruba don't reason like dis.. is either u are nyamiri or Fulani.... All your assumption bases on ethnocentrism....

From your suggestion , u had already decleared tinubu as a winner

It means Tinubu will only win SW

garfield1:


They can't prefer atiku.wike has buried atiku in rivers.obi will get 60%,tinubu will get 30% atiku 10%

Is like reality hasn't hit you guys on the kind of disdain rivers people have towards Tinubu, the role he played in removing their brother/son (Goodluck), coupled with his mis-strategic muslim muslim ticket.

Landowner101:

Is like reality hasn't hit you guys on the kind of disdain rivers people have towards Tinubu, the role he played in removing their brother/son (Goodluck), coupled with his mis-strategic muslim muslim ticket.

What about the role atiku and buhari played in removing their son? Buhari got 45% in bayelsa kid

Osamabinladenik:
he needs to.
You cannot become president if you don't win 24 states.
Not beating Atiku in the north makes that hard.

olodo nyamiri... Furking impostor...

2/3 votes is what the election need... The Constitution said the winner must be able to have 25% votes from 24 states.... That's what the law Said....

The election is between atiku and TINUBU

GoodLife4live:
olodo nyamiri... Furking impostor...

2/3 votes is what the election need... The Constitution said the winner must be able to have 25% votes from 24 states.... That's what the law Said....

The election is between atiku and TINUBU

baba e ni Nyamiri. omo ale.

Abi Tinubu ti ri second ni?
So fe ji ni?

Osamabinladenik:
1. Southeast
Abia: LP 75:,
PDP: 15%,
others: 10%

Anambra:
LP: 80%,
others 20%

Imo:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%,
others: 10%

Ebonyi:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%
Others:10%

Enugu:
LP: 75%
PDP: 15%
Others: 10%
Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure.

2. Southwest

Lagos:
APC: 60%
LP: 35%
Others: 15%

Ogun:
APC: 65%
LP:25%
Others: 10%

Osun
APC: 65%
PDP:15%
LP: 15%
Others: 5%

Ondo
APC: 60%
LP: 25%
Others: 15%

Oyo
APC: 50%
PDP: 20%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Ekiti
APC: 70%
LP: 20%
PDP: 10%

Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these.
APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways.

3. North Central

Kwara
APC: 65%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

Kogi
APC: 35%
PDP: 30%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Nasarawa
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%
LP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Abuja:
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 20%
NNPP: 10%

Niger
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
LP: 15%
NNPP: 15%

Benue
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
Others: 20%

Plateau
LP: 35%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here.

Northeast

Borno
APC: 50%
PDP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Adamawa:
PDP: 70%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
LP: 10%

Yobe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Gombe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Taraba
PDP: 50%
LP: 30%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
Others: 5%

Bauchi
PDP: 60%
APC: 15%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region.

Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 60%
PDP: 25%
Others: 15%

Akwa ibom
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others 10%

Edo
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 15%
Others: 5%

Bayelsa
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Delta
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Crossriver
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
APC: 10%
Others: 10%
Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all.


Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 45%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 5%

Kaduna
APC: 30%
NNPP: 25%
PDP: 20%
LP: 15%

Jigawa
NNPP: 30%
APC: 30%
PDP: 30%
Others: 10%

Kebbi:
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 20%
Others: 10%

Katsina:
APC: 40%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Sokoto
PDP: 70%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 15%

Zamfara

PDP: 40%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region.
Obi won't do well here.


Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines.
I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP.
Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight.

the analysis is baseless, the analyser has no true picture of what is actually going on in the country, Atiku Abubakar will sweep all Nothern states, South south, North central, enough votes spread across the other two regions

Osamabinladenik:
baba e ni Nyamiri. omo ale.

Abi Tinubu ti ri second ni?
So fe ji ni?

u are an nyamiri... A fucking impostor.....u lack serious knowledge about the political affairs of nigeria state.... Most of your factors are wrong and very bias....

I just came back from the North...ieant north East.... I can vigorously tell you that... Peter obi is not 8n the game.... That's number one... 2) tinubu and ATIKU will drag it out in north eastern of the country..... Borno , yobe and gombe are ready to die for ASIWAJU....

To state it clear here... ASIWAJU is winning more 7 states in the northern region and he will get the 25% requirement from the whole northern states ...

In South South , TINUBU is going to drag it out with obi and ATIKU....it is the structure that we fight it out for all POLITICAL parties...

In South east , tinubu will get at least 20% votes ... Those that will vote APC Because of thier families and businesses will do that on election day.... Dey don't need toake noice about it.....

N.b tinubu is more capable than your pathological furking lieing nyamiri POLITICIAN call obi.... Even atiku can't dear say it that is more capable than TINUBU....

Osamabinladenik:
baba e ni Nyamiri. omo ale.

Abi Tinubu ti ri second ni?
So fe ji ni?

Speaking Yoruba doesn't make u a Yoruba....

I am from North Central... I can speak hausa.... Bit I am a confirmed Yoruba man ... I live all my live in Lagos....

garfield1:


How can you say binani is not campaigning for tinubu when her victory depends on tinubu winning? Apc have bigwigs like nyarkos,ribadu,ex gov bindow,boss gida,hon namdas,sen bent...the Christians of numan will divide votes.

Apc is very strong here esp with bwacha and hon shiddi joining apc and sen ikenya dumping pdp

Senator Aishatu Binani is more popular than all those u mentioned.

Osamabinladenik:
1. Southeast
Abia: LP 75:,
PDP: 15%,
others: 10%

Anambra:
LP: 80%,
others 20%

Imo:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%,
others: 10%

Ebonyi:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%
Others:10%

Enugu:
LP: 75%
PDP: 15%
Others: 10%
Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure.

2. Southwest

Lagos:
APC: 60%
LP: 35%
Others: 15%

Ogun:
APC: 65%
LP:25%
Others: 10%

Osun
APC: 65%
PDP:15%
LP: 15%
Others: 5%

Ondo
APC: 60%
LP: 25%
Others: 15%

Oyo
APC: 50%
PDP: 20%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Ekiti
APC: 70%
LP: 20%
PDP: 10%

Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these.
APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways.

3. North Central

Kwara
APC: 65%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

Kogi
APC: 35%
PDP: 30%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Nasarawa
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%
LP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Abuja:
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 20%
NNPP: 10%

Niger
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
LP: 15%
NNPP: 15%

Benue
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
Others: 20%

Plateau
LP: 35%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here.

Northeast

Borno
APC: 50%
PDP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Adamawa:
PDP: 70%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
LP: 10%

Yobe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Gombe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Taraba
PDP: 50%
LP: 30%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
Others: 5%

Bauchi
PDP: 60%
APC: 15%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region.

Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 60%
PDP: 25%
Others: 15%

Akwa ibom
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others 10%

Edo
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 15%
Others: 5%

Bayelsa
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Delta
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Crossriver
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
APC: 10%
Others: 10%
Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all.


Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 45%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 5%

Kaduna
APC: 30%
NNPP: 25%
PDP: 20%
LP: 15%

Jigawa
NNPP: 30%
APC: 30%
PDP: 30%
Others: 10%

Kebbi:
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 20%
Others: 10%

Katsina:
APC: 40%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Sokoto
PDP: 70%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 15%

Zamfara

PDP: 40%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region.
Obi won't do well here.


Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines.
I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP.
Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight.

Just forget about Tinubu. He is a waste of space. Kwankwaso is a problem for Atiku. LP will get well over 50% in Edo and will get not less than 20% in Gombe State. Also, the Christian population in Nasarawa state will guarantee over 30% for LP. Plateau state will produce over 50% for LP as that clown Lalong will surely be disgraced and Atiku will never get majority votes there. Tinubu in Plateau? He is a fuçking waste of space, I repeat. I am a PO supporter, I think his main challenge will be getting 25% in 24 states. If the election gets to rerun, he will sadly lose because I don't see Tinubu's urchins voting for him. Overall, I think you made a good analysis.

Osamabinladenik:
There's nothing Tinubu did in Lagos aside from his eye programme.

Dude was a total failure stealing Lagos money.

The hospital below was built by Peter Obi, which did Tinubu build? None, he built no hospital aside upgrading General hospital ikeja to teaching hospital without building anything there

My candidate is Adewole Adebayo Of The SDP but we need to stop misinforming people.

Obi was a total failure in Anambra apart from investing the state's money in his own company. Soludo said his investments are now worth nothing. Unlike Tinubu's brilliant investment in Airte which brought good returns.

You live in isheri and yet did not know that Alimoso general hospital was built in 2006 by Tinubu's government.

Tinubu brought this to Nigeria, show us what obi brought.

garfield1:


Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

Do you think Sensible people will cast their vote for APC amidst all their woeful performance?

You get mind oo!

garfield1:


I am from ss.asari, his sister and ojukaye control kalabari.asari has declared for tinubu

Which SS state are you from?
And I'm just hearing this "Asari controls kalabari " (from you) for the first time.

garfield1:


In rivers,wike has buried him.in aks,the governor is thinking of resigning and pdp is divided.in delta,omo agege is campaigning more than okowa and pdp is divided.in edo,pdp is divided and most are with obi.on bayelsa,diri has not started campaigning.in cross river the pdp is loyal to wike and they have abandoned atiku.

Which Omo Agege is campaigning?
He only inaugurated his campaign council whereas PDP has begun ward to ward campaigns in Delta.
Peace is gradually stirring up in Delta PDP.
Cross River PDP inagurated their presidential campaign council on Saturday in Calabar.
Imoke,Sen Gershom and others was present even though Sen Onor and his faction stayed away.
Imoke rightly said that should Atiku lose in crs, everyone's else should forget victory and He's correct.
Battle line has been drawn: Should Onor and his group revolts on Atiku, payback in the governorship election awaits him. So threading with caution might just be it.
Heard Obaseki want to tow the Wike way; recruiting SA.
AKS, Udom has cleared the air .He is committed fully in the course and backed by a gigantic state Treasury .
Na only Rivers I have fears.

garfield1:


Atiku can only win narrowly.votes will be divided.that said,pdp is nonexistent in borno and yobe.atiku won't see 25% here.apc is very strong in taraba and Adamawa and will get more than 25% there...tinubu will edge him out in gombe while atiku takes bauchi narrowly
In nw,atiku is not popular.even buhari didnt get 70% in sokoto,how will atiku get that? Atiku will win sokoto narrowly,lose massive in zamfara.
I am ok with se.ss is faulty.obi is nonexistent in bayelsa,its bw apc and pdp.apc will beat pdp in edo and rivers.obi can't win akwa ibom.if he wins cross river,it will be narrow with apc behind.apc will beat pdp in benue

OP even wrong in quoting 45% for LP in Edo, LP will take nothing less than 75% here. As for Rivers, 70% or more is most likely.

garfield1:


What about the role atiku and buhari played in removing their son? Buhari got 45% in bayelsa kid

Thats more reason why Peter Obi is winning Rivers heavily, tinubu isn't marketable over there, as majority people still prefer Atiku over there compared to Tinubu.