₦airaland Forum

aninibinladen:
I knew you know nothing about those places.

Firstly Binani's victory doesn't depend on Tinubu, secondly it appears you are not aware she has resigned as APC Presidential coordinator in Adamawa. Murtala Nyarko is no longer active in politics, Ribadu is a light weight and Bindow is flirting with the Atiku camp.

It's funny how you people analyse stuff, Christians in Numan will leave their brother who has a Christian on his ticket to vote for a yoruba man carrying a mulim mulim ticket? Funny!

Bwacha is who you rely on for Taraba?

Binani resigned because she lost at the courts and she was accused of not carrying other factions along like the bindow,ribadu factions hence babale from the bindow faction took over.if atiku wins,fintiri will win too..nyarko is no longer active but his son is active and contesting for Adamawa central to replace binani.the Christians of Adamawa are against another Fulani.they are tired of herdsmen killings.some will vote obi

In taraba south,bwacha is the most popular.he dominates donga and Ussa lgas.shiddi has been winning elections under apga.t.y danjuma is not keen on atiku

Landowner101:
That's the reason, the northern elites are telling kwankwanso to step down.

Those are just speculations.who are those northern elders? Most of them are with tinubu and buhari

Osamabinladenik:
how will APC come second in Rivers State that is a staunch PDP structure?
Edo is also a PDP state for God sake. Who will vote for APC? Especially one with muslim-muslim ticket and a purported drug dealer.

In Rivers, APC may not get 10%

The guy is probably mistaking Edo and Rivers for Borno and Lagos.

APC may not even Win Lagos with a landslide...

DadaHammed:
LOL..Obi can't win Akwa Ibom? Your delusions were coat and tie. APC will hardly get 15% in all the SS states..

That guy even overrated projected APC's performance in Imo by givinv them 20%. Where APC wan see 20% of Imo votes? Oru East? Orlu zone? Orsu?
From Uzodinma that will lose his own polling unit in Omuma and Oru East LGA and Orlu senatorial zone where he has been killing his own people? Bwahahahaha!

Deluded mugu with his usual 'make-me-happy tales'....

Hope has never lost his LGA.apc dominates orlu and okigwe zones

Penguin2:
He told you simple thing…

Can you give your analysis from a non-rigging perspective?

It is impossible to have a non rigged elections

garfield1:
Hope has never lost his LGA.apc dominates orlu and okigwe zones

If you carry APC flag in Orlu, Orsu or Oru today as we speak, you will be burnt alive, go and ask his right hand man C.O.C Akaolisa who is from Awo-Idemili in Orsu LGA.

Not a single APC banner or poster exists in those areas. Even Uzodinma knows this, that's why he is trying to rig with fake INEC registration on non-existent voters.

APC politicians from those areas don't even go home. They've all fled their ancestral homes and hide in Owerri. . Put call and verify.

You are the one deceiving yourself.

I must commend your unbiased analysis.
Osamabinladenik

garfield1:
It is impossible to have a non rigged elections

And that’s Tinubu’s only hope, right?

That no matter the reforms, he must find a way to rig the election?

Does a popular candidate depend on rigging to win an election?

garfield1:
The way you reason is funny.who told you states will vote along party lines? If Edo and rivers are pdp,it means atiku will win na...
People dont care much about Muslim Muslim.buhari got 25% in rivers,tinubu will get more.asari dokubo will deliver kalabari while magnus Abe will deliver ogoni

Oga, he will not get up to 25% votes in Rivers. Which Kalabari you dey talk? Is he the most influential in Kabavari? You better bookmark this comment for future reference.

aninibinladen:
Udende without resources will pull more votes than Suswam in zone? Zam will also pull more crowd in zone B than Ortom? Yes Ortom is currently at loggerheads with Atiku but this is to no benefit of APC, note that Ayu is also from zone B and the current senator there has pledged his support for Atiku. As for Dan Onjeh in zone C, it will be an insult to even argue with you about that one having any influence above a combination of Abba Moro and David Mark.

You know nothing about Gombe, just rest on that one!

You lie.the quarrel between ortom and atiku weakens pdp and strengthens apc.I know udende will lose to suswan in zone a but him alongside alia will convince many to vote tinubu while no one fights for atiku.in zone b,the current senator orker jerv is not returning so he can't do much.ayu can't do much with ortom holding pdp structure.the people are regretting voting out akume and will rather vote Titus zam.
In benue south,the influence of mark and morro is waning.Dan onjeh almost defeated mark in 2015.most of pdp members here have joined labour.even mark daughter dumped pdp.pdp will take third in benue

DadaHammed:
If you carry APC flag in Orlu, Orsu or Oru today as we speak, you will be burnt alive go and ask his right hand man C.O.C Akaolisa who is from Awo-Idemili in Orsu LGA.

Not a single APC banner or poster exists in those areas. Even Uzodinma knows this. APC politicians from those areas don't even go home. They've all fled their ancestral homes ... . Put call and verify.

You are the one deceiving yourself.

Leave that guy and his delusion.

You know they’ve never been to Southeast. They just sit wherever and make spurious claims.

They don’t know that APC is like taboo in the Southeast.

If not for result that Hope Uzodimma wrote, what would he be doing in Imo government house? And somebody will be using Uzodimma to have hope of delivering votes to Tinubu.

Let those people come to any market square in Imo and say they came to campaign for APC na.

Landowner101:
Yet wike invited Peter Obi while he commissioned his new project.
Amaechi muteness after the apc presidential primaries should tell you he's already backing out of apc.

hahahaha, ameachi will be relegated.
He will lose everything if he move out apc.
Because he know obi is going nowhere even if apc lose river state. ameachi will be the loser.
Wike is just waiting for ameachi to decamp before he will opening support tinubu.
Abe and wike are enough to deliver river state for tinubu

Niom:
Oga, he will not get up to 25% votes in Rivers. Which Kalabari you dey talk? Is he the most influential in Kabavari? You better bookmark this comment for future reference.

Ojukaye is there,boma good head is there.Abe will deliver ogoni

Penguin2:
Leave that guy and his delusion.

You know they’ve never been to Southeast. They just sit wherever and make spurious claims.

They don’t know that APC is like taboo in the Southeast.

If not for result that Hope Uzodimma wrote, what would he be doing in Imo government house? And somebody will be using Uzodimma to have hope of delivering votes to Tinubu.

Let those people come to any market square in Imo and say they came to campaign for APC na.

The guy siddon for Iragbiji dey write nonsense. Let him wear any shirt with APC on it and walk on Ihiala-Orlu road and see if him eye no go see him ear that day.

Osamabinladenik:
1. Southeast
Abia: LP 75:,
PDP: 15%,
others: 10%

Anambra:
LP: 80%,
others 20%

Imo:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%,
others: 10%

Ebonyi:
LP: 70%
APC: 20%
Others:10%

Enugu:
LP: 75%
PDP: 15%
Others: 10%
Reasons: Because Peter Obi is very popular here and people won't vote for a muslim-muslim ticket. PDP still has some voters here hence I'll be distant second. Tinubu is not popular in this region at all but some APC states like Imo and Ebonyi will give him little votes because of APC structure.

2. Southwest

Lagos:
APC: 60%
LP: 35%
Others: 15%

Ogun:
APC: 65%
LP:25%
Others: 10%

Osun
APC: 65%
PDP:15%
LP: 15%
Others: 5%

Ondo
APC: 60%
LP: 25%
Others: 15%

Oyo
APC: 50%
PDP: 20%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Ekiti
APC: 70%
LP: 20%
PDP: 10%

Reasons: while this is Tinubu' region, many people won't vote him because of his antecedents, Muslim-muslim ticket and again. LP will be second here because of these.
APC will win for tribalistic reason anyways.

3. North Central

Kwara
APC: 65%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

Kogi
APC: 35%
PDP: 30%
LP: 25%
Others: 10%

Nasarawa
PDP: 30%
APC: 30%
LP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Abuja:
LP: 40%
PDP: 30%
APC: 20%
NNPP: 10%

Niger
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
LP: 15%
NNPP: 15%

Benue
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
Others: 20%

Plateau
LP: 35%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 15%

This will be the toughest region to call, LP will get votes in Christian dominated part of North Central, APC will get votes from APC states, PDP will also get votes because of some northern influence. There will be no clear winner here.

Northeast

Borno
APC: 50%
PDP: 30%
NNPP: 10%

Adamawa:
PDP: 70%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
LP: 10%

Yobe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Gombe
PDP: 50%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
LP: 5%

Taraba
PDP: 50%
LP: 30%
APC: 10%
NNPP: 10%
Others: 5%

Bauchi
PDP: 60%
APC: 15%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: this region is Atikus region, he will get votes based on tribalism, however APC will become second because of existing structure there. Kwankwaso is all a little bit popular here while LP won't get much from this region.

Southsouth

Rivers
LP: 60%
PDP: 25%
Others: 15%

Akwa ibom
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others 10%

Edo
LP: 45%
PDP: 35%
APC: 15%
Others: 5%

Bayelsa
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Delta
LP: 50%
PDP: 40%
Others: 10%

Crossriver
LP: 55%
PDP: 25%
APC: 10%
Others: 10%
Reasons: There's a big PDP structure here, however the people love Peter Obi hence he will get most votes. APC won't do well here at all.


Northwest

Kano
NNPP: 45%
APC: 30%
PDP: 20%
Others: 5%

Kaduna
APC: 30%
NNPP: 25%
PDP: 20%
LP: 15%

Jigawa
NNPP: 30%
APC: 30%
PDP: 30%
Others: 10%

Kebbi:
APC: 35%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 20%
Others: 10%

Katsina:
APC: 40%
PDP: 35%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Sokoto
PDP: 70%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 15%

Zamfara

PDP: 40%
APC: 30%
NNPP: 15%
Others: 10%

Reason: Atiku will get a lot of votes here because of his popularity and Fulani heritage. Kwankwaso will also get votes as he's very popular here but still lacks structure. APC will get votes for Tinubu, however Atiku will most likely win this region.
Obi won't do well here.


Verdict: While I want Peter Obi to win this election and I think he's the best candidate, but Atiku seem to have the best chance because most of our voters especially in the north are not well informed, they don't know what they want hence they will vote along tribal lines.
I see Atiku winning because only PDP has the ability to secure 25% votes in 24% states and still have most numbers. If this doesn't happen, I see a rerun between PDP and LP.
Tinubu will be 3rd because Kwankwaso is going to be a spoiler for him in Northwest and Northeast, Tinubu is depending very much on this two regions to win, Atiku and kwankwaso will give him a tough fight.

u r mad with ur analysis In north east.borno and yobe is to apc what anambra and abia is to labor party.

Penguin2:
Leave that guy and his delusion.

You know they’ve never been to Southeast. They just sit wherever and make spurious claims.

They don’t know that APC is like taboo in the Southeast.

If not for result that Hope Uzodimma wrote, what would he be doing in Imo government house? And somebody will be using Uzodimma to have hope of delivering votes to Tinubu.

Let those people come to any market square in Imo and say they came to campaign for APC na.

hope and okorocha will vote for obi, are you happy now

Lawalatm:
Y64r analysis is what's giving hope to BAT and Atikulate that they stand a chance.......

Endsars national protest was child's play compared to the tsunami of voters for OBIDATTI in the up coming election. Remember that these same duo have beaten all assumptions e.g online presence only, no physical presence in rallies, no money to finance campaigns, no reasonable running mate after Kwankwazo, etc.....they dwarfed all these early assumptions and more

Forget it, Obi Datti is only in the south. Obi can't get up to 15% vote in the north west and North East.

Osamabinladenik:
wait, did you just sat APC will win Edo and Rivers?

the guy is in tramadol he even say labor go win benue.

highchief1:
u r mad with ur analysis In north east.borno and yobe is to apc what anambra and abia is to labor party.

op is so useless to think buhari and masari will campaign for atiku in kastina because they're all fulani.

garfield1:
You lie sir.I told you bvas is an upgrade on card reader.if it doesnt read your fingerprint,then it can scan your face.it is bimodal hence the B.it does not vote,it only accredits voters.it can be hacked.you yourself said it minimizes rigging,it doesnt stop it.before results are transmitted live,people can manipulate it

how many bvas you want to hack

buhariguy:
op is so useless to think buhari and masari will campaign for atiku in kastina because they're all fulani.

most useless analysis I have seen pls let’s try and locate the guy make we beat am I beg u.does he even know what is 85% in anambra?nobody can get 85% in his state amongst all the candidates.

DadaHammed:
The guy siddon for Iragbiji dey write nonsense. Let him wear any shirt with APC on it and walk on Ihiala-Orlu road and see if him eye no go see him ear that day.

Lol

DadaHammed:
The guy siddon for Iragbiji dey write nonsense. Let him wear any shirt with APC on it and walk on Ihiala-Orlu road and see if him eye no go see him ear that day.

so idiotic pigs are terrorists killing innocent people campaigning for apc

buhariguy:
hope and okorocha will vote for obi, are you happy now

You know I purposely didn’t bother replying your mention because you are out of touch with reality by a million miles and it’s needless engaging you.

I agree with you that Obi will not win a single Local Government Area in Nigeria even in Anambra.

Are you happy now?

DadaHammed:
If you carry APC flag in Orlu, Orsu or Oru today as we speak, you will be burnt alive, go and ask his right hand man C.O.C Akaolisa who is from Awo-Idemili in Orsu LGA.

Not a single APC banner or poster exists in those areas. Even Uzodinma knows this, that's why he is trying to rig with fake INEC registration on non-existent voters.

APC politicians from those areas don't even go home. They've all fled their ancestral homes and hide in Owerri. . Put call and verify.

You are the one deceiving yourself.

How did apc win ngor okpala in february

Pascal9:
how many bvas you want to hack

They dont need to hack it

3ple9iner:
You that is in reality I hope you saw were I said the votes and not the people.
Accredited voters doesn't translate to votes as from those actedited voters, there would be some void votes, and some may not even vote after being actedited (yeah it's a possibility) after the accreditation of a voter, then he/she proceed to vote. After counting of votes, the INEC official then input the counted votes into the BVAS.
Hope you understand now?

soo the other partys agents will be sleeping. Oga game have change. If it is easy Tinubu would have won osun state

highchief1:
most useless analysis I have seen pls let’s try and locate the guy make we beat am I beg u.does he even know what is 85% in anambra?nobody can get 85% in his state amongst all the candidates.

labour party that don't have even councilor in anambra,
Even soludo will not campaign for obi.
He will be lucky to have 50% in anambra, not to talk of getting 50% in the whole of south east.
Or to think of obi getting 40% in South south

garfield1:
You lie.the quarrel between ortom and atiku weakens pdp and strengthens apc.I know udende will lose to suswan in zone a but him alongside alia will convince many to vote tinubu while no one fights for atiku.in zone b,the current senator orker jerv is not returning so he can't do much.ayu can't do much with ortom holding pdp structure.the people are regretting voting out akume and will rather vote Titus zam.
In benue south,the influence of mark and morro is waning.Dan onjeh almost defeated mark in 2015.most of pdp members here have joined labour.even mark daughter dumped pdp.pdp will take third in benue

I am now convinced you know nothing about what you write. The influence of Mark and Morro is waning and Dan Onjeh will carry the day? LOL. Mark's daughter was in APGA not PDP.

Alia, will win his election no doubt but Tinubu will come third in Benue. Titus Zam you talk about will also come third behind Ortom and Gbillah.

Anyway, no use arguing with you, by February you will have sense by force.

Pascal9:
soo the other partys agents will be sleeping. Oga game have change. If it is easy Tinubu would have won osun state

osun election has make bvas useless,
Court has already revert osun state back to apc

aninibinladen:
I am now convinced you know nothing about what you write. The influence of Mark and Morro is waning and Dan Onjeh will carry the day? LOL. Mark's daughter was in APGA not PDP.

Alia, will win his election no doubt but Tinubu will come third in Benue. Titus Zam you talk about will also come third behind Ortom and Gbillah.

Anyway, no use arguing with you, by February you will have sense by force.

hiss, so governorship will win and presidential candidate will come third.
Is not possible, it can only be less than 5% difference BTW alia and tinubu vote

Osamabinladenik:
Obi is more competent that Tinubu. You can argue that if you want.

Obi is penetrating Southwest faster than Tinubu is penetrating southeast. This is because he's more competent than Tinubu. Forgot all the packaging APC is trying to package Tinubu

Thats because Obi needs SW votes more than Tinubu need SE votes. If Tinubu turn to an Angel tomorrow, they won't vote him in SE , so why do you expect him to penetrate the region?