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Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 11:34am On Nov 22, 2022 |
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis. Imagine if: NW: 1million voters NE: 600k voters NC: 800k voters SS: 700k voters SE: 500k voters SW: 800k voters Total: 4.5million Northwest Atiku: 40% 400k Tinubu: 30% 300k Kwankwanso: 20% 200k Obi: 10% 100k Northeast Atiku 50% 300k Tinubu 30% 180k Kwankwanso 15% 90k Peter Obi 10% 60k Northecentral Peter Obi 30% 240k Tinubu 30% 240k Atiku 30% 240 Kwankwanso 10% 80k Southsouth Obi 55%: 385k Atiku 25%: 175k Tinubu 15% 105k Kwankwanso 5% 35k Southeast Peter Obi 70%: 350k Atiku 15%: 75k Tinubu 10%: 50k Kwankwanso 5%: 25k Southwest Tinubu 55%: 440k Peter Obi 30%: 240k Atiku 10%: 80k Kwankwanso 5%: 40k Total votes Peter Obi: 1.375million Tinubu: 1.315million Atiku: 1.270million Kwankwanso: 510k Conclusion This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen. 1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi 2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest. 3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here. 4. Kwankwanso cannot win 5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive. 6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now 7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out. 8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast 4 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Gracesynty(f): 11:36am On Nov 22, 2022 |
I swear 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 11:53am On Nov 22, 2022 |
2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by garfield1: 11:58am On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch: I like your analysis.but it will be closer in Ne between tinubu and atiku than in northwest.again,tinubu and obi will outscore atiku in north central.obi will score less than 30% in sw.outside lagos,obi won't see 25%.tinubu and atiku will score a little bit more in ss/se.obi won't see 10% in ne 1 Like |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Ikpaitid: 12:01pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
IPOB people mumu no be small What do you people smoke? Your delusion is unbelievable 3 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 12:04pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
garfield1:Well, I won’t disregard your analysis because mine is not perfect but very close to what will happen. However, if anything changes, i sense the following: 1. Kwankwanso will continue to grow in NW and some parts of NE thereby stealing Tinubu’s votes majorly for tribal reasons. 2. Peter Obi has the momentum in north central. He may like even win that region. I sense that he will win Abuja, Plateau and Benue and do well in Nasarawa. 4. It will be harder to steal votes from Peter Obi in southeast than Peter Obi stealing more votes in southwest from Tinubu. Southwest is a battle ground that will win, but the margin of win is still very debatable 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by garfield1: 12:25pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch: You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct. With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 12:31pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
garfield1:nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW. Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%. I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest. It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen 3 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 12:33pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
garfield1:I do not think SS and SE will be any battle ground. Atiku will steal votes in SS no doubt The battle ground is in NC between AA, BAT and PO NE between BAT and AA NW between BAT, AA and NK SW between BAT and PO 4 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by garfield1: 12:40pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch: True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate. Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator.. Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Workch: 12:49pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
garfield1:See, if you view this election with the image of the last one, you will miss the point. Follow the polls and methodologies. Tinubu is not as accepted as you make it seem. Surveys again and again has proven that 1 Like |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by tuniski: 12:58pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch:Obi won't get 10% in the entire northern zones that is ; NW, NE and NC. Obi equally won't get 10% in SW. Even in Lagos he won't get 25%. Obi won't win any state outside of south east. Election is not BBnaija! Bottom line, obi has zero path to the presidency. The contest is straight up between Atiku and Tinubu. And there won't be run off. 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by tuniski: 1:12pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
garfield1:South west doesn't give bloc votes. Only SS & SE do that in the south. 1 Like |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Apophenia24k: 1:15pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
tuniski: Any evidence to validate your statement.? Look above to see how the two people discussed intelligently with logical reasonings.. Learn to keep quiet when you're clueless 8 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Superwave16320: 1:20pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Polls conducted by ipob right How many rallies have you seen conducted for Obi in the SW ? You don't think that should indicate how terribly he will fail. Workch: 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Superwave16320: 1:23pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Was Buhari more accepted than Tinubu in any of the Southern state or you have brain injury. Workch: |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by tuniski: 1:32pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Apophenia24k:You should learn to control your emotions. Obi has zero path to the presidency and he knows so. No one gate crashes to the presidency!!!! 1 Like |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by FatherOfJesus: 1:33pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
tuniski:lol, you are high 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Assetosky(m): 1:33pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Obi to get 55% in south south? Change this impression. Pdp rules there |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by tuniski: 1:33pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Superwave16320:He won't get 10% that is even being too generous. |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by FatherOfJesus: 1:34pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
tuniski:you think you are talking to your Mumus in 2019 abi? 6 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by FatherOfJesus: 1:35pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Assetosky:By rigging yes they do, by popularity of candidate, they don’t. They cannot rig atiku in Even APGa candidate cannot win Anambra 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by slivertongue: 1:35pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch: Tinubu and Obi will battle over who gets more votes in the South. Who gets more votes comes close to the race by way of a run off. Atiku and Kwankwaso are doing it over here. Atiku will dust Kwankwaso. so who wins in the South? |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by tuniski: 1:36pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
FatherOfJesus:Make your point no insults. |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by FatherOfJesus: 1:37pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
tuniski:There is no insult. You think you are talking to the fools we were in 2015? Anybody can gatecrash into President if you are competent. We are sick and tired of the failures and your rhetorics to defend them 3 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by ImmaculateJOE(m): 2:10pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Assetosky:Chang your weed supplier. Obi to win Delta, Rivers, Edo, CRS..... Can't say for Bayelsa and AKS.. 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by garfield1: 2:12pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
tuniski: Sw gave bloc votes in 1979,1983,1993,1999,2003 when yorubas were on the ballots.it shows they are tribalistic.. Ss gives bloc votes only to their sons 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by mokset123: 2:44pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch:even here in ife, osun state obi has a good stand of winning 2 Likes |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by kettykin: 2:49pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
You tried a bit , you were cautious. But get ready for the biggest shock of the century. Obi is coming. 5 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by pinkgoodies(m): 3:21pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch: Tinubu will win NC. With kogi, kwara and Niger in the bag. Likely to win nasarawa with a small margin or a draw. |
Re: Let’s Analyze This Election From Figures Point Of View. by Obinoscopy(m): 3:24pm On Nov 22, 2022 |
Workch:Interesting analysis. You can post this Projection on this link: https://www.nairaland.com/7437376/whats-election-result-projection-2023 and win a chance to get 100 dollars if your prediction is close to the actual election result. |
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