Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

I swear

Gracesynty:
I swear

Yes, which over way, there won’t be a clear winner.

I see a rerun

Workch:
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

I like your analysis.but it will be closer in
Ne between tinubu and atiku than in northwest.again,tinubu and obi will outscore atiku in north central.obi will score less than 30% in sw.outside lagos,obi won't see 25%.tinubu and atiku will score a little bit more in ss/se.obi won't see 10% in ne

IPOB people mumu no be small
What do you people smoke?
Your delusion is unbelievable

garfield1:



I like your analysis.but it will be closer in
Ne between tinubu and atiku than in northwest.again,tinubu and obi will outscore atiku in north central.obi will score less than 30% in sw.outside lagos,obi won't see 25%.tinubu and atiku will score a little bit more in ss/se.obi won't see 10% in ne

Well, I won’t disregard your analysis because mine is not perfect but very close to what will happen. However, if anything changes, i sense the following:

1. Kwankwanso will continue to grow in NW and some parts of NE thereby stealing Tinubu’s votes majorly for tribal reasons.

2. Peter Obi has the momentum in north central. He may like even win that region. I sense that he will win Abuja, Plateau and Benue and do well in Nasarawa.

4. It will be harder to steal votes from Peter Obi in southeast than Peter Obi stealing more votes in southwest from Tinubu.
Southwest is a battle ground that will win, but the margin of win is still very debatable

Workch:
Well, I won’t disregard your analysis because mine is not perfect but very close to what will happen. However, if anything changes, i sense the following:

1. Kwankwanso will continue to grow in NW and some parts of NE thereby stealing Tinubu’s votes majorly for tribal reasons.

2. Peter Obi has the momentum in north central. He may like even win that region. I sense that he will win Abuja, Plateau and Benue and do well in Nasarawa.

4. It will be harder to steal votes from Peter Obi in southeast than Peter Obi stealing more votes in southwest from Tinubu.
Southwest is a battle ground that will win, but the margin of win is still very debatable

You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct.
With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get

garfield1:


You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct.
With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get

nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW.
Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%.
I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest.
It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen

garfield1:


You are right.you are close to the truth but peter may not win the nc because he will only do well in benue,plateau,fct.he will perform poorly in kwara,niger,kogi.but both tinubu and atiku will compete in plateau,benue,fct.
With tinubu in,sw won't be a battle ground outside lagos.obi can't compete in Ogun,ekiti,Osun,ondo.atiku will fair better.outside anambra,tinubu and atiku have the resources to compete in abia,IMO,ebonyi,Enugu.ss will be a big battleground.but the election will be basically between obi and tinubu.what will kill obi is the spread which atiku and Tinubu will easily get

I do not think SS and SE will be any battle ground. Atiku will steal votes in SS no doubt

The battle ground is in NC between AA, BAT and PO
NE between BAT and AA
NW between BAT, AA and NK
SW between BAT and PO

Workch:
nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW.
Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%.
I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest.
It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen

True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate.

Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator..

Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north

garfield1:


True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate.

Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator..

Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north

See, if you view this election with the image of the last one, you will miss the point.
Follow the polls and methodologies.

Tinubu is not as accepted as you make it seem. Surveys again and again has proven that

Workch:
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

Obi won't get 10% in the entire northern zones that is ; NW, NE and NC.
Obi equally won't get 10% in SW. Even in Lagos he won't get 25%.
Obi won't win any state outside of south east.
Election is not BBnaija!
Bottom line, obi has zero path to the presidency.
The contest is straight up between Atiku and Tinubu. And there won't be run off.

garfield1:


True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate.

Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator..

Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north

South west doesn't give bloc votes. Only SS & SE do that in the south.

tuniski:

Obi won't get 10% in the entire northern zones that is ; NW, NE and NC.
Obi equally won't get 10% in SW. Even in Lagos he won't get 25%.
Obi won't win any state outside of south east.
Election is not BBnaija!
Bottom line, obi has zero path to the presidency.
The contest is straight up between Atiku and Tinubu. And there won't be run off.

Any evidence to validate your statement.?

Look above to see how the two people discussed intelligently with logical reasonings..
Learn to keep quiet when you're clueless

Polls conducted by ipob right
How many rallies have you seen conducted for Obi in the SW ? You don't think that should indicate how terribly he will fail.

Workch:
nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW.
Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%.
I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest.
It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen

Was Buhari more accepted than Tinubu in any of the Southern state or you have brain injury.

Workch:
See, if you view this election with the image of the last one, you will miss the point.
Follow the polls and methodologies.

Tinubu is not as accepted as you make it seem. Surveys again and again has proven that

Apophenia24k:


Any evidence to validate your statement.?

Look above to see how the two people discussed intelligently with logical reasonings..
Learn to keep quiet when you're clueless

You should learn to control your emotions. Obi has zero path to the presidency and he knows so. No one gate crashes to the presidency!!!!

tuniski:

Obi won't get 10% in the entire northern zones that is ; NW, NE and NC.
Obi equally won't get 10% in SW. Even in Lagos he won't get 25%.
Obi won't win any state outside of south east.
Election is not BBnaija!
Bottom line, obi has zero path to the presidency.
The contest is straight up between Atiku and Tinubu. And there won't be run off.

lol, you are high

Obi to get 55% in south south?
Change this impression. Pdp rules there

Superwave16320:
Polls conducted by ipob right
How many rallies have you seen conducted for Obi in the SW ? You don't think that should indicate how terribly he will fail.

He won't get 10% that is even being too generous.

tuniski:

You should learn to control your emotions. Obi has zero path to the presidency and he knows so. No one gate crashes to the presidency!!!!

you think you are talking to your Mumus in 2019 abi?

Assetosky:
Obi to get 55% in south south?
Change this impression. Pdp rules there

By rigging yes they do, by popularity of candidate, they don’t.

They cannot rig atiku in

Even APGa candidate cannot win Anambra

Workch:
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

Tinubu and Obi will battle over who gets more votes in the South. Who gets more votes comes close to the race by way of a run off. Atiku and Kwankwaso are doing it over here. Atiku will dust Kwankwaso. so who wins in the South?

FatherOfJesus:
you think you are talking to your Mumus in 2019 abi?

Make your point no insults.

tuniski:

Make your point no insults.

There is no insult.
You think you are talking to the fools we were in 2015?
Anybody can gatecrash into President if you are competent. We are sick and tired of the failures and your rhetorics to defend them

Assetosky:
Obi to get 55% in south south?
Change this impression. Pdp rules there

Chang your weed supplier.

Obi to win Delta, Rivers, Edo, CRS..... Can't say for Bayelsa and AKS..

tuniski:

South west doesn't give bloc votes. Only SS & SE do that in the south.

Sw gave bloc votes in 1979,1983,1993,1999,2003 when yorubas were on the ballots.it shows they are tribalistic.. Ss gives bloc votes only to their sons

Workch:
nextier poll conducted in some people Ogun and Oyo rural areas with people who have voters card suggest that Obi has rural presence about electorates in the rural areas in SW.
Tinubu had 37% people with voters card saying they will vote for him while obi was second with 24%.
I am not saying that this survey should be totally relied upon, however, it’s a huge indication that Tinubu is not as popular as you think in southwest.
It gives a rough image of what’s going to happen

even here in ife, osun state obi has a good stand of winning

You tried a bit , you were cautious. But get ready for the biggest shock of the century. Obi is coming.

Workch:
Well, I won’t disregard your analysis because mine is not perfect but very close to what will happen. However, if anything changes, i sense the following:

1. Kwankwanso will continue to grow in NW and some parts of NE thereby stealing Tinubu’s votes majorly for tribal reasons.

2. Peter Obi has the momentum in north central. He may like even win that region. I sense that he will win Abuja, Plateau and Benue and do well in Nasarawa.

4. It will be harder to steal votes from Peter Obi in southeast than Peter Obi stealing more votes in southwest from Tinubu.
Southwest is a battle ground that will win, but the margin of win is still very debatable

Tinubu will win NC. With kogi, kwara and Niger in the bag. Likely to win nasarawa with a small margin or a draw.

Workch:
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

Interesting analysis. You can post this Projection on this link: https://www.nairaland.com/7437376/whats-election-result-projection-2023 and win a chance to get 100 dollars if your prediction is close to the actual election result.