₦airaland Forum

drlateef:
If Obi can lose pole as third place in NE, NW and second in SW, yet declared winner of the pole, this pole must be nothing but abracadabra. The only state outside this three major voting blocks where they have large votes is Rivers State and some areas of middle belt where APC is leading. How could he win an election with this loss? Definitely, Atedo Peterside and his voodoo polling agency is wrong. They are using fake poll results to deceive Nigerians into voting Peter Obi. You only need to be statistically trained to see the deception. Peter Obi is obviously losing this election if we search deep into the interpretation of his pole. The pole favours Tinubu more than anyone else.

What do you know about Statistics and Census? Be talking what you don't know in pretext

SmartPolician:
Stop wailing, boy.

Let's get some facts straight...

First, Atedo Peterside didn't carry out this opinion poll himself. Instead, his foundation sponsored NOI to do it.

Second, they called 1000 participants to take part in this opinion poll. They sampled 1000 opinions among 93 million registered voters.

According to Peterside, that's exactly how they gauge who is likely to win the election in the United States - a country of over 300 million people; Nigeria is about 200 million.

Now, this gives you an idea of how people will vote. Someone has already explained how the votes will be split among three major candidates of Islamic beliefs, so I won't bore you with that.

Coming to the question you asked, human beings don't do this anymore. Our world has moved. There are many statistical software tools used to analyze and interpret data. There are SPSS, RevMan, Excel, etc. 1. If any of these tools concludes that Peter Obi is the winner, that's exactly what it is.

Peterside mentioned that about 70% of the participants want the presidential hopefuls to participate in debates. If I were you, I would be worried about this because Tinubu has been known to always run away from debates.

However, my major concern is the violence in the East and the number of undecided voters in that opinion polls. This can change a lot of things.

What's more, you and I know that Bola Tinubu is not sellable. The only thing working for him is structure. That's why Peter Obi is educating Nigerians to have minds of their own and not be influenced by other politicians.

Lastly, Peterside said that they will conduct the last opinion poll before the election. If you feel strongly about the result of this poll, pray that those undecided voters chose Bola Tinubu because this same opinion poll has accurately predicted the winners of elections in 2011, 2015 and 2019.

1. If the data given is biased, there is no way in hell for the inference to be correct. If in the NE you sample 150 persons out of which 40 say they are going for Obi, 30 for Tinubu, 20 for Kwankwaso and 60 for Atiku, you don't need the Bereau of Statistics to tell you that your sample is dangerously biased and your solution skewed.

Ofunaofu:
We know that the poll dealt a devastating blow to all your efforts in selling that comedy of gaffes parading himself as a presidential candidate

Don't worry, we are only looking forward to a great and prosperous Nigeria and Tinubu doesn't have the capacity to achieve it. He is certainly the least qualified at this moment to lead this country

So take heart

No it doesnt sir. Infact it is insignificant and incosequential. I am only engaging on this discussion because of clarification sake.

Raheeqilmaktoom:
1. If the data given is biased, there is no way in hell for the inference to be correct. If in the NE you sample 150 persons out of which 40 say they are going for Obi, 30 for Tinubu, 20 for Kwankwaso and 60 for Atiku, you don't need the Bereau of Statistics to tell you that your sample is dangerously biased and your solution skewed.

it's impossible for all the physical polls to be wrong.
We see these polls are consistent with their results, maybe little variance. In the general, all tgese polls by individual organizations points to the same thing. It's left for you to accept facts.
It's impossible for all of them to be wrong and only you the correct person.

You have to admit reality that Peter Obi, accorfing numerous polls is the most preferred candidate. Only rigging can stop him

lhordspy:
No it doesnt sir. Infact it is insignificant and incosequential. I am only engaging on this discussion because of clarification sake.

What are you trying to clarify

That the NOI/ANAP poll is wrong this time around because it did not predict that Tinubu will win.

Whereas we are witnesses to the fact that the same NOI/ANAP correctly predicted the winners of the last three presidential elections in this country

FatherOfJesus:
it's impossible for all the physical polls to be wrong.
We see these polls are consistent with their results, maybe little variance. In the general, all tgese polls by individual organizations points to the same thing. It's left for you to accept facts.
It's impossible for all of them to be wrong and only you the correct person.

You have to admit reality that Peter Obi, accorfing numerous polls is the most preferred candidate. Only rigging can stop him

As someone on ground, I don't need someone in Lagos telling me how my family and neighbours would vote.

drlateef:
If Obi can lose pole as third place in NE, NW and second in SW, yet declared winner of the pole, this pole must be nothing but abracadabra. The only state outside this three major voting blocks where they have large votes is Rivers State and some areas of middle belt where APC is leading. How could he win an election with this loss? Definitely, Atedo Peterside and his voodoo polling agency is wrong. They are using fake poll results to deceive Nigerians into voting Peter Obi. You only need to be statistically trained to see the deception. Peter Obi is obviously losing this election if we search deep into the interpretation of his pole. The pole favours Tinubu more than anyone else.

Tears everywhere

Raheeqilmaktoom:
As someone on ground, I don't need someone in Lagos telling me how my family and neighbours would vote.

No one is arguing about how your family will vote. The polls are not meant to measure how your family will vote, it's meant to measure how the general public might vote.
It's not a must that it should align with your family sentiment, your family are not the only people in Nigeria and there's nothing wrong if majority of Nigerians don't share your family sentiment

FatherOfJesus:
It doesn't matter, a block vote dekm SE will still be enough to top anything anyone will get in either northwest or northeast.

Urchins are not smart

The so called block votes in SE (if it happens that is, with all the factors at play, it may be impossible), is not more than 4m votes (a 70% block vote, which may be impossible), this is less than votes from 4 states in the NE (Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba or with one of Yobe or Gombe), even if the 2 candidates share the zone, th y have enoy milage to cancel whatever Obi gets from SE.

Crying is allowed

FatherOfJesus:
No one is arguing about how your family will vote. The polls are not meant to measure how your family will vote, it's meant to measure how the general public might vote.
It's not a must that it should align with your family sentiment, your family are not the only people in Nigeria and there's nothing wrong if majority of Nigerians don't share your family sentiment

It's like you have comprehension issue. Family there is just a lateral term.

What I am saying is there is no way in hell Obi will get more than Kwankwaso in this region, not to talk of coming close to Tinubu or getting to rub shoulders with Atiku.

I am disputing the sample that gave Obi 11% and Atiku 17%, a nursery pupil won't take that.

Raheeqilmaktoom:
It's like you have comprehension issue. Family there is just a lateral term.

What I am saying is there is no way in hell Obi will get more than Kwankwaso in this region, not to talk of coming close to Tinubu or getting to rub shoulders with Atiku.

You are the person who have problems understanding statistics if not you will know that the poll doesn't suggest that Obi will get more votes than kwankwaso in northwest considering the percentage of undecided and those we refused to vote.

Raheeqilmaktoom:
The so called block votes in SE (if it happens that is, with all the factors at play, it may be impossible), is not more than 4m votes (a 70% block vote, which may be impossible), this is less than votes from 4 states in the NE (Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa and Taraba or with one of Yobe or Gombe), even if the 2 candidates share the zone, th y have enoy milage to cancel whatever Obi gets from SE.

none of the candidates between Atiku, kwankwaso and Tinubj can get 4m votes in northeast.
None of them will get 5m in northwest

That's what we want Urchins to realize, tbahs the power of scattered votes

FatherOfJesus:
You are the person who have problems understanding statistics if not you will know that the poll doesn't suggest that Obi will get more votes than kwankwaso in northwest considering the percentage of undecided and those we refused to vote.

Having more % means what?

Undecided voterswill tilt towards who based on what assumption?

Raheeqilmaktoom:
Having more % means what?

Undecided voterswill tilt towards who based on what assumption?

But the percentage of undecided and not voting is more than twice the percentage of those who voted for obi

Do you have a functioning brain?

Ofunaofu:
What are you trying to clarify

That the NOI/ANAP poll is wrong this time around because it did not predict that Tinubu will win.

Whereas we are witnesses to the fact that the same NOI/ANAP correctly predicted the winners of the last three presidential elections in this country

Ohh.. Same you that believe on ANAPP poll consistency will dismiss the fact that the APC structure of 2019 will not deliver again in 2023.

Same you guys will say 2019 is not 2023. That 2019 has passed.

Is that not funny?

FatherOfJesus:
1. But the percentage of undecided and not voting is more than twice the percentage of those who voted for obi

Do you have a functioning brain?

Which I genuinely doubt. Save maybe as someone inferred, the sample was imaginative.

lhordspy:
Ohh.. Same you that believe on ANAPP poll consistency will dismiss the fact that the APC structure of 2019 will not deliver again in 2023.

Same you guys will say 2019 is not 2023. That 2019 has passed.

Is that not funny?

What structure are you even talking about?

Voting buying?

Raheeqilmaktoom:
Which I genuinely doubt. Save maybe as someone inferred, the sample was imaginative.

I do not also believe that Obi can get more votes than kwankwaso in NW.
I see a lot of undecided voters not voting for obi and it also depends on the state the poll was conducted.

Obi will get many votes in kaduna, obi can even beat kwankwaso in kaduna but not all NW states

FatherOfJesus:
What structure are you even talking about?

Voting buying?

Anything you attribute it to.
Anything that makes you sleep well at night.

lhordspy:
Anything you attribute it to.
Anything that makes you sleep well at night.

are you banking on rigging?

FatherOfJesus:
are banking on rigging?

This discussion is over, oga.
Like i said, anything that makes you sleep well at night.

FatherOfJesus:
none of the candidates between Atiku, kwankwaso and Tinubj can get 4m votes in northeast.
None of them will get 5m in northwest

That's what we want Urchins to realize, tbahs the power of scattered votes

Someone would surely get 3m or more and that's very ok taking 50-60 from a pool, which is more than your 70% from SE and pooling in enough from from NC, SS and SE.

Apc would get no less than 4m from NW and PDP not Less than 3m (as bad as it gets) and both will pool significant % from NC, for the APC SW (more than 2-3m) and SS plus 25% from at least 2-3 in SE.

lhordspy:
This discussion is over, oga.
Like i said, anything that makes you sleep well at night.

Why are you being agitated?
Because I cannot see any genuine structure that you are talking about.
If the people don't want you, no structure can force them to want you unless you want to rig

Are you not sounding stupid already. Atiku has how many percent in his region? Tinubu has how many?

lhordspy:
Have you ever been to school. No i dont think so. Obi was allocated 50%+ in southEast.

Having 50% in southeast is like scoring 50marks in a 1 unit course like intro-to-library science. It has little to no effect on your grade.

South-east makes up just less than 2% of the voters base. Having 50% of 2% of the total voters in south-east is aa insignificant as having nothing.

FatherOfJesus:
I do not also believe that Obi can get more votes than kwankwaso in NW.
I see a lot of undecided voters not voting for obi and it also depends on the state the poll was conducted.

Obi will get many votes in kaduna, obi can even beat kwankwaso in kaduna but not all NW states

Kwankwaso is not in the contest, plus Kaduna will be brutal for LP.

The Southern Kaduna you bank on is a PDP strong hold, even if they tilt towards LP (even if, which is still doubtful), PDP won't get less than 40% (possibly more) there.

Raheeqilmaktoom:
Someone would surely get 3m or more and that's very ok taking 50-60 from a pool, which is more than your 70% from SE and pooling in enough from from NC, SS and SE.

Apc would get no less than 4m from NW and PDP not Less than 3m (as bad as it gets) and both will pool significant % from NC, for the APC SW (more than 2-3m) and SS plus 25% from at least 2-3 in SE.

in the last election, northwest and northeast gave about 12m votes combined. That's the highest they have given in history

Anyone who gets 50% of that will only 6m which I am sure no one ca get 50% and Tinubu cannot win. Thr max anyone can get here in 40% and I think it will be Atiku.

In 2015, southeast gave 4m votes to Jonathan. Even if Obi get 3m votes now, whatever he gets in southsouth will be enough to waterdown who wins northwest and northeast.

Obi will also win Northcentral to beat whoever wins in northeast and northwest

Raheeqilmaktoom:
Kwankwaso is not in the contest, plus Kaduna will be brutal for LP.

The Southern Kaduna you bank on is a PDP strong hold, even if they tilt towards LP (even if, which is still doubtful), PDP won't get less than 40% (possibly more) there.

I don't think Obi can win Kaduna, I don't see Tinubu winning it either but whatever happens, both will get plenty votes

Raheeqilmaktoom:
If Obi sees 5% in NW and NE, he fought the political battle of his life. Lol.

Christians in the NE and NW make up more than 40% of the demographics. PO can make 25% of that population if you include right thinking Muslims.

FatherOfJesus:
in the last election, northwest and northeast gave about 12m votes combined. That's the highest they have given in history

Anyone who gets 50% of that will only 6m which I am sure no one ca get 50% and Tinubu cannot win. Thr max anyone can get here in 40% and I think it will be Atiku.

In 2015, southeast gave 4m votes to Jonathan. Even if Obi get 3m votes now, 2. whatever he gets in southsouth will be enough to waterdown who wins northwest and northeast.

3. Obi will also win Northcentral to beat whoever wins in northeast and northwest

1. The 2 candidates will get significant votes in SA, so Obi stands at no advantage in the SS. They are even more likely to get more votes than him in the region.

2. Obi will not win the NC, it's that simple.
Plus Apc have a trump card in SW where Tinubu will with a significant margin probably 2-3m, Atiku will pick good votes from all regions SE inclusive.

FatherOfJesus:
I don't think Obi can win Kaduna, I don't see Tinubu winning it either but whatever happens, both will get plenty votes

Obi won't get that much votes.

Take 2019 election result where PDP polled 400k votes against APC's 800 or so, those 400 cama majorly from SK which will now be divided between them and PDP (maybe), they won't see 50k from the other 2 zones (I am being generous enough) while PDP and Apc battle it out in the other zones. Lp winning Kaduna is out of the works.

Spy360:
Christians in the NE and NW make up more than 40% of the demographics. PO can make 25% of that population if you include right thinking Muslims.

Naive assumption.

They are PDP fanatics, literally the custodians of PDP and ones who gave it backing in it's years of trial.

Right thinking Muslims? That's an insult and that's how you see fit to call to your candidate? So if I am not voting Obi am a wrong thinking Muslim?