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North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday - Politics (2) - Nairaland

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Munamoqel: 1:51pm On Dec 25, 2022
tinsel:

Please below is a table of 2011 results. Compare it
no bivas and card readers .so wetin happen to Jonathan 22m in 4 years time .those figure where rigged election
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by tinsel: 1:52pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


If this election will be just between Tinubu and Obi I will with no qualms give it to Tinubu.

I'm only predicting an Obi's victory based on the fact that Atiku and Kwankwaso are on the ballot too.

I'm sure you won't deny that the SE & SS have always voted same way and Obi will mostly likely win these two region with more than 60%.

Obi will also get up to 30-40% in states like Lagos, Oyo, Ondo and 25% in all other southwest states.

Obi will win Benue, Plateau, FCT, And he may win or do very well in states like Kaduna (Southern Kaduna voters), The Christians in Nassarawa will vote Obi so he will do very well there, he will also probably win Taraba or do well there. Christians in Bauchi, Gombe and Adamawa will give Obi the 25% he requires.

Obi will also gets some votes from Kano due to the igbos there, he will get also get some numbers from other states even if he doesn't get 25%.

So basically Obi has a much easier part to Victory then either Atiku or Tinubu.

Election is like a football match anything can happen but I really hate seeing or reading posts saying obi cannot win because he has the easiest path to victory unless he and the labour party refuse to do their home work well .
Beer parlour analysis.

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by SmartPolician: 1:53pm On Dec 25, 2022
chrisxxx:
People should know that numbers do not always determine who wins in Nigeria election but number of states won.
If you win all the votes in Kano and another won in ekiti and Bayelsa even with less cumulative votes to Kano with the person who won in Kano unable to get 25% if votes in Ekiti and Bayelsa, the winner of Ekiti and Bayelsa will be declared the president even with the person who won in Kano having the highest number of votes.

This is not true. To be declared the winner, you MUST get the highest number of votes and 25% in 26 states.

That analogy you posted will lead to a runoff because it didn't satisfy the provision of the electoral act.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by ImperialYoruba: 1:55pm On Dec 25, 2022
tinsel:

Because he won South West, part of north Central, south south and south east and some good votes in the deep north.

Who won SW, Jonathan?

grin grin.
Obidients and spurious claims.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Emeraldicon(m): 1:59pm On Dec 25, 2022
tinsel:

Beer parlour analysis.

I have broke down my own personal opinion on how and which states can win the presidency for Obi without exaggerating.

Kindly also explain without exaggerating which states do you think Tinubu or Atiku will win convincingly.

1 Like

Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by 00FFT00(m): 2:00pm On Dec 25, 2022
kettykin:
Anyone that believes this can believe anything. If Obi will get SS, SE parts of south west, North Central, Kaduna South,Kebbi south with or without any vote from the north west,Obi will be president .

Jonathan became the president in 2011 without North West,ended up making North West the inec chairman, national security advisor after winning before they sent him to the canvas in 2015 in place of Buhari.

Obi is riding on Jonathan's 2011 backbone,know this and know peace.


You forgot to mention Taraba, parts of Gombe, and yes, parts of Adamawa and Borno.

2 Likes

Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Carmal90(m): 2:00pm On Dec 25, 2022
tinsel:

Please below is a table of 2011 results. Compare it
What is your argument?
Let me rephrase what I said

Obi can't have the figures Jonathan had in 2011.
In 2011, Jonathan won all southern states bar one, and he did satisfactorily ok in the North while winning the NC..

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Carmal90(m): 2:01pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


I have broke down my own personal opinion on how and which states can win the presidency for Obi without exaggerating.

Kindly also explain without exaggerating which states do you think Tinubu or Atiku will win convincingly.
Atiku doesn't have to win any state/ region convincingly before he will be announced as winner
Go and check 1979 presidential election for more details

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by ImperialYoruba: 2:04pm On Dec 25, 2022
MrEverest:
Very poor analysis lacking in depth and logic. Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election despite performing woefully in NW against only one major contestant. But in 2023, at least, 3 candidates are battling to split NW votes evenly among themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE and SS is more than enough to offset NW. If he now wins NC and gets above 25% in SW then he will be clearly ahead of the rest.

No contestant can possibly win more than 40% of NW, which means the zone can't determine the outcome of the election.

As it stands now, based on the fact that we have 4 major candidates, no zone can determine the outcome. If any zone has such power then it has to be SS. Now consider this, what Peter Obi gets from SE is most likely going to be higher than what Tinubu will get from SW. Also, Obi is likely to get far more votes from SW than Tinubu will hope to get from SE.

If Atiku is able to pull off at least 35% of NW votes which is very possible and Kwankwaso gets same figure, it means that Tinubu won't get more than 25% in NW.

Peter Obi is most likely the next president, everything being equal.

The determinant of vote count is INEC. All these online analyses are irrelevant unless they are taken in light of official number of registered voters and pvc collected.

If INEC say 2million registered and on election day report say 3million voted. That na problem for the candidate that wins.

If INEC say out of the registered 2 million, only 1 million collected pvc, that is even a worse problem.


So you can't accurately pin the numbers down without reference to INEC registers.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Ikpaitid: 2:07pm On Dec 25, 2022
ImDStar:
grin i cannot be praying for a better country and still be supporting APC and PDP, that's Foolishness in the highest other.

It's pure evil to support Buhari in 2015 and still come back to support Tinubu after all the suffering.
Are you cursed with suffering?

Planning to vote APC or PDP is not an opinion, It's pure wickedness and evil, after all the suffering Nigerians are going through.

133million people leaving in abject poverty out of 200million is not a joke!!!
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Ikpaitid: 2:08pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeka,there's a 90% chance that you won't even vote.

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Emeraldicon(m): 2:17pm On Dec 25, 2022
Carmal90:

Atiku doesn't have to win any state/ region convincingly before he will be announced as winner
Go and check 1979 presidential election for more details

The only this can happen is if he wins virtually every state because I can't see how he will win some state unconvincingly and still be declared a winner.

Because of Tinubu/Shettima, Aitku won't be able to win all the states in the north east and the north west. Those states will be shared. For me these are the states Atiku can win.
1. Adamawa
2. Bauchi
3. Gombe
4. Katsina
5. Kebbi
6. Niger
7. Jigawa
8. Nassarawa
9. Sokoto
10. Yobe

Tinubu will win
1. Lagos
2. Ogun
3. Oyo
4. Osun
5. Ondo
6. Ekiti
7. Kwara
8. Kogi
9. Kaduna
10. Borno
12. Zamfara

Kwankwaso will win
1. Kano

Obi will win
1. Anambra
2. Enugu
3. Abia
4. Ebonyi
5. Imo
6. Rivers
7. Beyelse
8. Edo
9. Delta
10. Akwa Ibom
11. Cross Rivers
12. Benue
13. Plateau
14. FCT
15. Taraba

1 Like

Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by ednut1(m): 2:20pm On Dec 25, 2022
ImDStar:
grin i cannot be praying for a better country and still be supporting APC and PDP, that's Foolishness in the highest other.

It's pure evil to support Buhari in 2015 and still come back to support Tinubu after all the suffering.
Are you cursed with suffering?

Planning to vote APC or PDP is not an opinion, It's pure wickedness and evil, after all the suffering Nigerians are going through.

133million people leaving in abject poverty out of 200million is not a joke!!!
these are the only two candidates with serious candidates in governorship, senate and hor . People still have to vote them even if obi is their choice
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Munamoqel: 2:34pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


The only this can happen is if he wins virtually every state because I can't see how he will win some state unconvincingly and still be declared a winner.

Because of Tinubu/Shettima, Aitku won't be able to win all the states in the north east and the north west. Those states will be shared. For me these are the states Atiku can win.
1. Adamawa
2. Bauchi
3. Gombe
4. Katsina
5. Kebbi
6. Niger
7. Jigawa
8. Nassarawa
9. Sokoto
10. Yobe

Tinubu will win
1. Lagos
2. Ogun
3. Oyo
4. Osun
5. Ondo
6. Ekiti
7. Kwara
8. Kogi
9. Kaduna
10. Borno
12. Zamfara

Kwankwaso will win
1. Kano

Obi will win
1. Anambra
2. Enugu
3. Abia
4. Ebonyi
5. Imo
6. Rivers
7. Beyelse
8. Edo
9. Delta
10. Akwa Ibom
11. Cross Rivers
12. Benue
13. Plateau
14. FCT
15. Taraba
how can Obi win Taraba una dey over rate obi even after several failed rally in Taraba and ibom etc

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by PeterObi4LP: 2:44pm On Dec 25, 2022
YorubaIsGreat:
Jagaban Of Africa, on your mandate we all stand gidigba

The quarter to quench knows his time is up that's why he ran to Aso Villa to beg Buhari to come campaign for him in Kano and Kastina with his influence. But guess what? Lesson will be learnt in February. The sick man is not Buhari choice and he won't support him.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by PeterObi4LP: 2:45pm On Dec 25, 2022
frank14011991:
The only too close to call states in North West are KANO which is between tinubu and kwankwaso, and SOKOTO between tinubu and Atiku, the remaining five states are for APC no doubt insha Allahu

When you are done dreaming, you wake up and drink urine and eat agbado

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Emeraldicon(m): 2:46pm On Dec 25, 2022
Munamoqel:
how can Obi win Taraba una dey over rate obi even after several failed rally in Taraba and ibom etc

Don't be deceived by the numbers you see during Rally. People that truly end up voting don't even attend rallies.

I witnessed first hand how people are mobilized for rallies. APC and PDP rallies are attended mostly by rented crowd. If I'm desperate for 5k I would have attended the recent APC rally because I was offered 5k to attend but I declined.

Jonathan won Taraba in 2011 and Obi can win Taraba if he does his home work well.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by JAMO84: 3:01pm On Dec 25, 2022
Hi
ganisucks:


Sorry, but according to ANAP poll, the most trustworthy poll in Nigeria, Atiku is the candidate to beat in Northwest and Northeast, except Kano state which Kwankwaso has locked down.
The NorthCentral on the other hand, except Kwara state, is completely in the bag for Peter Obi.
I don't know which Northern state you are giving to Tinubu.
So according to you, Obi will win Kogi Nassarawa and Niger States?
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by ganisucks(f): 3:05pm On Dec 25, 2022
JAMO84:
HiSo according to you, Obi will win Kogi Nassarawa and Niger States?

From your lips to God's ears. If ANAP said it, then so it is.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by adekolaelect(m): 3:14pm On Dec 25, 2022
ImDStar:
grin i cannot be praying for a better country and still be supporting APC and PDP, that's Foolishness in the highest other.

It's pure evil to support Buhari in 2015 and still come back to support Tinubu after all the suffering.
Are you cursed with suffering?

Planning to vote APC or PDP is not an opinion, It's pure wickedness and evil, after all the suffering Nigerians are going through.

133million people leaving in abject poverty out of 200million is not a joke!!!
Mumu !!! Can you tell us the difference between this man and his pdp comtapact ??

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Munamoqel: 3:24pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


Sorry I forgot urchins are senseless so no need to argue with you.

If God has destined Obi to be the next president of Nigeria, nothing you or anybody can do. God gives power to whoever He pleases. Power is not grabbed or taken by force but it's given by the Almighty
God will not give a beer producer president of a Nation with millions of Muslims Haram

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Emeraldicon(m): 3:31pm On Dec 25, 2022
Munamoqel:
God will not give a beer producer president of a Nation with millions of Muslims Haram

But the Muslims Haram are enjoying the money from VAT coming from the sell of beer right?
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Carmal90(m): 3:38pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


The only this can happen is if he wins virtually every state because I can't see how he will win some state unconvincingly and still be declared a winner.

Because of Tinubu/Shettima, Aitku won't be able to win all the states in the north east and the north west. Those states will be shared. For me these are the states Atiku can win.
1. Adamawa
2. Bauchi
3. Gombe
4. Katsina
5. Kebbi
6. Niger
7. Jigawa
8. Nassarawa
9. Sokoto
10. Yobe

Tinubu will win
1. Lagos
2. Ogun
3. Oyo
4. Osun
5. Ondo
6. Ekiti
7. Kwara
8. Kogi
9. Kaduna
10. Borno
12. Zamfara

Kwankwaso will win
1. Kano

Obi will win
1. Anambra
2. Enugu
3. Abia
4. Ebonyi
5. Imo
6. Rivers
7. Beyelse
8. Edo
9. Delta
10. Akwa Ibom
11. Cross Rivers
12. Benue
13. Plateau
14. FCT
15. Taraba

I love your bias analysis i must say.
In one sentence, you concluded Atiku won't win all northerner state because Tinubu VP is from there, but same you allocated all SS,SE State ti Obi without mentioning the impact of Okowa, needless to say, no political gladiator from those two region has joined him in LP.
You think National election is like that?.
For record, go an check 1979 Presidential election results where a not too popular candidate was able to defeat.
Awolowo,Zik,Aminu Kano.
It called spread..
It is only Atiku/PDP that can pick votes from any region of the country, my only concern is those G5 governors, reason i am predicting an outright win for Atiku or a marginal win for Tinubu..
Obi will come a DISTANT third position

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Munamoqel: 3:42pm On Dec 25, 2022
Emeraldicon:


But the Muslims Haram are enjoying the money from VAT coming from the sell of beer right?

stup up again . VAT is paid to state and local govt over 80 percent where it is generated so your beer vat is in your erosions ravaged Abia and Ebony . While other to the federal government consodated account .tiny percentage that will slip in will be used for rehab of beer victims .sin income from tobacco and beer and hotels and brothel .

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by MikeofAfrica: 3:51pm On Dec 25, 2022
CoronaVirusRelo:
It will only reaffirm the glaring constant- Tinubu would be sworn-in on May 29, 2023

If Atiku wins Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Kwakwanso wins Kano as predicted by the article , how will Tinubu win the election?
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Nobody: 3:53pm On Dec 25, 2022
MikeofAfrica:


If Atiku wins Katsina, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Kwakwanso wins Kano as predicted by the article , how will Tinubu win the election?

It’s not a time for political mathematics. All is settled already!

Asiwaju is the next president

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by MikeofAfrica: 3:57pm On Dec 25, 2022
CoronaVirusRelo:


It’s not a time for political mathematics. All is settled already!

Asiwaju is the next president

Please can you confide in me who and who settled that Tinubu will be the next president.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Nobody: 4:00pm On Dec 25, 2022
MikeofAfrica:


Please can you confide in me who and who settled that Tinubu will be the next president.

I will do after election. That I can promise you. It will be foolish of me mentioning names and strategies.

If you take a deeper look at what stands with APC at the moment, it shouldn’t be difficult for you to find!

The power brokers are aligned….

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Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by MikeofAfrica: 4:08pm On Dec 25, 2022
Svoboda:
All i know is that the NW is Apcs stronghold. What does that tell you? Jigawa, katsina, kebbi and sokoto all trending pdp, according to thisday, is false.

NW States are not APC strongholds but Buhari strongholds. PDP has won Governorship elections in Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna and Sokoto.

It is the Buhari factor that turn most of these States to APC. Without Buhari on ballot in 2023, Atiku will win some of these States because he has the same Fulani root like Buhari.

Remember that Yaradua who is also a Fulani won most of these States for PDP in 2007.
Re: North West Zone Will Determine Who Becomes The President- Thisday by Emeraldicon(m): 4:11pm On Dec 25, 2022
Carmal90:


I love your bias analysis i must say.
In one sentence, you concluded Atiku won't win all northerner state because Tinubu VP is from there, but same you allocated all SS,SE State ti Obi without mentioning the impact of Okowa, needless to say, no political gladiator from those two region has joined him in LP.
You think National election is like that?.
For record, go an check 1979 Presidential election results where a not too popular candidate was able to defeat.
Awolowo,Zik,Aminu Kano.
It called spread..
It is only Atiku/PDP that can pick votes from any region of the country, my only concern is those G5 governors, reason i am predicting an outright win for Atiku or a marginal win for Tinubu..
Obi will come a DISTANT third position

I am not against Atiku winning because he is more coherent than Tinubu. But I still don't see the possibility of him winning, if he does congratulations to him

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