MrEverest:
Very poor analysis lacking in depth and logic. Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election despite performing woefully in NW against only one major contestant. But in 2023, at least, 3 candidates are battling to split NW votes evenly among themselves.

Peter Obi winning SE and SS is more than enough to offset NW. If he now wins NC and gets above 25% in SW then he will be clearly ahead of the rest.

No contestant can possibly win more than 40% of NW, which means the zone can't determine the outcome of the election.

As it stands now, based on the fact that we have 4 major candidates, no zone can determine the outcome. If any zone has such power then it has to be SS. Now consider this, what Peter Obi gets from SE is most likely going to be higher than what Tinubu will get from SW. Also, Obi is likely to get far more votes from SW than Tinubu will hope to get from SE.

If Atiku is able to pull off at least 35% of NW votes which is very possible and Kwankwaso gets same figure, it means that Tinubu won't get more than 25% in NW.

Peter Obi is most likely the next president, everything being equal.

What makes you believe that Peter Obi will get a block vote in the south south

omonnakoda:
That claim is false. It is a baseless assumption. Invoking the phrase "Head office" is meant to bamboozle the the ignorant . Why is it only recharge card why not Dangote cement or Coke and Omo and Milo and Guinness or Zenith Bank or everything that VAT is collected on? It is a consumption tax levied at the point of consumption and nothing to do with headquarters..

like I say you can't comprehend .it for everything. If I buy coke from the coke dealer in Kano and drink how will he has already paid VAT inclusive from cola cola dealer accounts in their hq in Lagos. If I buy Dangote cement same if I buy airline ticket same . companies don't go about setting up state accounts .look at Income statement but it beyond your daft head . If I buy air peace ticket from enugu to a Abuja the the account for payment is in Lagos where the credit enter to airpeace accounts then they remit vat to FIRS mumu

SmartPolician:


It's 25. 2/3 of 37 is 24.7

Ok. But not 26.

Mfetenang:
Your support or non support of APC or PDP will not affect the outcome of the 2023 elections, stop wasting your data.
Every intelligent Nigerian knows that the next president will come from either APC or PDP,whether you agree or not doesn't really matter.

More like every delusional Nigerian knows that...
Your cheap propaganda won't work. Obi is the man to beat in this coming election.

Munamoqel:
like I say you can't comprehend .it for everything. If I buy coke from the coke dealer in Kano and drink how will he has already paid VAT inclusive from cola cola dealer accounts in their hq in Lagos. If I buy Dangote cement same if I buy airline ticket same . companies don't go about setting up state accounts .look at Income statement but it beyond your daft head . If I buy air peace ticket from enugu to a Abuja the the account for payment is in Lagos where the credit enter to airpeace accounts then they remit vat to FIRS mumu

You are making very ignorant assumptions about the VAT value chain and accounting. Where did you get this from? What is the source of that?
AIRPEACE ACCOUNT that is just your imagination about how it works, who told you that?
The FIRS collects VAT in Nigeria and it is present in every state.
VAT is collected and attributed on that basis. It is a consumption tax collected and attributed at the point of consumption.
Why do states like Oyo and Kano and Rivers still stand out?

omonnakoda:
You are making very ignorant assumptions about the VAT value chain and accounting. Where did you get this from? What is the source of that?
AIRPEACE ACCOUNT that is just your imagination about how it works, who told you that?
The FIRS collects VAT in Nigeria and it is present in every state.
VAT is collected and attributed on that basis. It is a consumption tax collected and attributed at the point of consumption.
Why do states like Oyo and Kano and Rivers still stand out?

where do you pay your airline tickets to FIRS or airpeace ? Where is airpeace hq located and operational accounts .are tickets sold with vat inclusive yes airpeace remit to FIRS .all tickets bought from airpeace lands in their accounts but the actual tickets might. Be enugu to Abuja that the consumption so Lagos accounts is mere collection on this transaction .

omonnakoda:
You are making very ignorant assumptions about the VAT value chain and accounting. Where did you get this from? What is the source of that?
AIRPEACE ACCOUNT that is just your imagination about how it works, who told you that?
The FIRS collects VAT in Nigeria and it is present in every state.
VAT is collected and attributed on that basis. It is a consumption tax collected and attributed at the point of consumption.
Why do states like Oyo and Kano and Rivers still stand out?

see your mouth how will FIRS collect VAT .vat is collected by firms and remitted to FIRS and firs can look into audited accounts of firms for vat fraud . example air Nigeria refused to remit 5 bn naira vat collection to firs .Abuja is having huge vat due to govt contract vat .

Munamoqel:
see your mouth how will FIRS collect VAT .vat is collected by firms and remitted to FIRS and firs can look into audited accounts of firms for vat fraud . example air Nigeria refused to remit 5 bn naira vat collection to firs .Abuja is having huge vat due to govt contract vat .

In real life Your father cannot say to me
see your mouth
so calm down

VAT is a consumption tax . It is NOT the same as Excise duty so stop confusing yourself
The FIRS collects VAT in all the 36 states where it has offices . All that peripheral story exposes the weakness of your argument.

omonnakoda:
In real life Your father cannot say to me
see your mouth
so calm down

VAT is a consumption tax . It is NOT the same as Excise duty so stop confusing yourself
The FIRS collects VAT in all the 36 states where it has offices . All that peripheral story exposes the weakness of your argument.

I can even slap your father or the sperm donor if you have any irresponsible boy . Firs office don't go about collecting VAT it's remitted to FIRS by the firm olodo

Svoboda:


If the Nw votes along tribal and ethnic lines, same can be said of the south east.

Coming straight to Tinubus chances, he only needs to win 3 out of the 7, and have a good showing in the other states in the NW. The buhari factor might be the ace.

But mark my words. Atiku isnt going to win 2023. Neither is obi.

SE is known for voting along party structure rather than tribal or religious sentiment. That is why Ojukwu did not win the SE in 2003. If Ojukwu had been from NW, he would have win all the 7 states in the region.

However, it seems Peter Obi might change that voting pattern in 2023.

Atiku stands a greater chance of winning 2023 election than Tinubu and Obi.

There are two voting blocks in Nigeria that has provided the foundation for winners of elections from 1999 till date. They are the NW/ NE and the SE/SS block. To become the president, you have to win at least one of these blocks and complement your votes by also winning the SW or NC.

Atiku is the favourite to win the NW/NE block although Tinubu also stands a chance if the APC Governors in the regions can deliver their states.

The SE/SS block will be a straight fight between Obi and Atiku. I expect Atiku to win SS states like Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa. Hence he will get at least 30% in the two regions due to PDP strong structure and the weak structure of LP.

Tinubu will perform woefully like Buhari in SE/SS even if Wike support him.

Hence if Atiku wins NW/ NE and gets 30% in SE/ SS , all he needs to do is to win few more states from NC or SW and the election is over.

samunaka:


What makes you believe that Peter Obi will get a block vote in the south south

For several reasons. One, they know he is the best in the midst of old rogues.

Two, SS people are Christians, you don't expect them to vote for APC that has two Muslim candidates, worse still the vice is a known Boko Haram sponsor!

Three, the same Tinubu and Atiku once connived to remove their son Jonathan who did nothing wrong, but hate and bigotry made them to gang up against him. So, you expect his people to support their enemies?

Four, Peter Obi is the closest candidate to them geographically, culturally, religiously etc.

Only SS people that are directly benefiting or hope to benefit from Tinubu and Atiku will vote for them but such people are in the minority.