₦airaland Forum

2023: MY PROJECTIONS

Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde

Below is a table of my estimates on 2023 presidential elections vote distribution among the four principal presidential candidates. I cannot lay my hand on 2023 voter cards issued by state; so I was compelled to use the one released in 2019 believing that any variance will more or less be evenly distributed among the states. The table has given estimated votes of each candidate per state and the sub-totals is given for each zone, which add up to the totals at the bottom of the table. Turnout in 2019 Presidential Election was 35% according to INEC. I reduced the total PVCs collected to this percentage.

In this article, I have discussed the factors that influenced my judgement. The major factors are incumbency, ethnicity, religion, G5, and the tickets of NNPP and LP.

In summary, the APC ticket is leading—though not with the huge percentages someone computed recently, which I copied and posted on my page and WhatsApp—followed by the PDP’s. As it is now, Labour and NNPP tickets will only play roles of factors that will widen or narrow the gap between the two major tickets.

Now, let us pick the factors one by one.

Ethnicity

The effect of ethnicity is obvious in the votes that the parties will get. The springboard of the LP is Igbo vote, APC the Yoruba and Kanuri votes, and NNPP northern Hausa-Fulani votes as it is to a lesser extent for the PDP.

The greatest beneficiary of the ethnic factor is the APC. The Kanuri and Yoruba will massively vote for the party, giving it an irreversible head-start of 9 states cutting across the Southwest, North-central and Northeast, which other parties will find impossible to catch-up with. It is this launchpad that will make the ruling party the undeniable front runner throughout the race.

Other parties will benefit from this factor to limited extent: LP, in the best of chances, will get the 5 Igbo states solely on this basis and many Igbo votes in the south-south, Lagos and Kano. Much of the support that the PDP candidate will get in the Northwest and Northeast is also ethnic though it will seriously be countered by incumbency in many states.

Incumbency

The next factor is incumbency. All the forecasts I read could not hide the clear arithmetic that the APC will be the biggest beneficiary here. It has the Federal Government with influential political appointees from every state in addition to other public servants who can be mobilised in its favour especially when developments before the election make its success at the polls inevitable. The privileges of having parastatals like INEC, CBN, etc. along with the role that security agencies will play in determining the atmosphere of the election in protection or furtherance of APC interest cannot be discounted.

In addition to the monopoly of the Federal Government, the APC heads 26 states, including the G5 states, against 9 States of PDP and 1 of APGA. While the incumbency in states makes it easy for the APC to meet the 25% constitutional requirement, it makes it hard for the PDP to do so. Labour and NNPP stand no chance at all, kicking them out of the race prematurely. A willing, sitting governor—with the state machinery, ruling party structure, contestants for every seat and backed by the Federal Government—is very unlikely to fail in gathering something between 20 and 25% of the vote for his presidential candidate. Prior to the electoral reforms of the past 10 years, this factor alone was earning a candidate of a ruling party the majority vote.

Incumbency in state will help APC to neutralise the mild ethnic factor in the North which the PDP candidate is promoting in Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina, Nasarawa, Zamfara, Kebbi, Katsina and Kano. In Oyo and Ebonyi, however, where ethnicity is strong, the effect may not be prominent.

Religion

Religion will help LP gain votes in many Christian dominated areas in the North to the detriment of the PDP as we heard from some groups. The Muslim-Muslim identity of the APC ticket has the potential of gaining currency as its antagonists threaten to use it to politically demystify the Muslim north. Facing this challenge means shifting votes in the region from PDP to APC.

G5

As their alliance with the APC becomes conclusive, debates on the relevance of the G5 are unanimous on their huge psychological impact on the PDP. The vote gain for APC may not be spectacular but it will definitely improve the chances of the APC in the unlikelihood of the race becoming tight with the quantum it will increase the gap under normal circumstances.

LP and NNPP

The LP will most likely reach the polling booth on 25th January. Its followers are not in the mood of surrendering to “the north” because doing so will vitiate the raison d’etre of the party, question the character of its candidate and create mass disappointment among its supporters, many of whom may boycott the polls. Its condition that the PDP candidate surrenders his ticket to the LP signifies the impossibility of any alliance. So PDP will lose the votes of LP members which it had in 2019.

But let us even grant the alliance between LP and PDP. According to the table below, it will reduce the margin of the APC but not bridge it completely. In fact, a reviewer of the draft of this article emphasized that I have credited LP with more votes than it can possibly get, insisting that LP is just a media hype and not taken seriously by Ndigbo. Added to this is the voter apathy among the Igbo as will be explained shortly. So the currency of LP may be more of crypto kind than hard and the leverage that PDP expects from it is not conclusively weighty enough to change the outcome of the election.

An obvious danger of PDP/LP alliance is the kinetics it will prompt in the NNPP camp. In order to block the PDP candidate, his rival NNPP candidate will then be persuaded, motivated, if not instigated, to align with the APC, a development that will foreclose the election in favour of the latter before the voting day.

Worse is a scenario where NNPP candidate withdraws for APC in the absence of a similar alliance between LP and PDP will be devastating to the PDP. It will be the end of discussion.

Voter Apathy

Supporters of candidates who are not the major contenders may develop voter apathy if their pessimism becomes entrenched before the elections. Voter apathy in presidential elections is historically highest among the Ndigbo. So the parties that would suffer most are APGA, LP and PDP, especially if IPOB will issue its usual threats. But whether the NNPP candidate withdraws or not, his ideologically bonded followers who are less prone to apathy will abide by his instructions.

The same fear applies to the Northwest and to some extent Northeast in states infested by Boko Haram and banditry. The parties found a way round the problem in 2019 but in 2023, with digital live transmission of results, they need to be more ingenious than usual.

Finally, disillusionment in the North may not allow the record turnouts we witnessed in 2011 and 2015 in the region. This will have equal effect on both APC and PDP.

Caveat

Both the APC and PDP presidential candidates are astute politicians. Each of them may have something up his sleeves. The mighty Hand of God is also there, always. So what we said above cannot be in any way final but just a fair representation of what I discern at this moment.

Bauchi
1 January 2023

2023: Why I Will Vote for Tinubu

By Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde

On 25 February 2023, I will pick this voter’s card, walk to the polling centre and cast my vote for His Excellency, Chief Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the Jagaban Borgu. This is a firm commitment given after a history of association, honour, demographic reality, constitutional requirement, weighing pros and cons as well as the personalities of the candidate and his running mate.

Association

In 2011, I supported the presidential candidature of Nuhu Ribadu. Together we travelled and met with the Jagaba many times in Lagos. Why I pitched my tent with Ribadu then, apart from sharing many things like age, world view, personality, background, geography, etc, was the firm belief that no matter how popular is a northern candidate, he needs to crossover to the South for additional votes and geographic spread that the constitution stipulates. For Buhari to run again that year, 2011, after two previous unsuccessful attempts, would be an exercise in futility as it indeed proved to be after failure of the last minute CPC/ACN merger attempt then. The results did not tie to warrant the second round as calculated in Buhari’s quarters. In 2015 the merger was done and victory was achieved. Elections are about law and numbers. No magic.

There will hardly be any southerner better fit for the position of a partner to the North than the Jagaba today. He is our Abiola, if not better. As some of my readers rightly said, he has patronized us many times: Atiku in 2007 under AC, Ribadu in ACN (2011) and Buhari in APC (2015). This is a consistent friend in need. Honour begets reciprocity.

Victimization

Furthermore, I am aware that the Muslim identity of the Jagaba has been used to disenfranchise him politically three times. In 2011, Buhari was not keen on the merger that required Pastor Bakare to withdraw for Tinubu because he Buhari was opposed to a Muslim-Muslim ticket after receiving over a decade of bashing from the southern press over shariah.

In 2015, Tinubu was bluntly and brutally told at a caucus meeting that he cannot deputize for Buhari because he was Muslim. He swallowed that and presented Osinbajo.

For the third time, for 2023, the some people want to crucify him for picking a Muslim as deputy against all odds. He believes that the Muslim identity of his running mate will earn him the winning vote and choosing a Northern Christian that will upset the Muslims will deny him our vote.

How honorable would I look if I would I turn my back against a friend in need who earlier provided platforms for my brothers and now believe in my capacity to rescue him? What if my son will contest the Presidency tomorrow and he goes to the Southwest to ask for support? And that day will come, when a northerner will again be in need of that alliance. Let us behave wisely. 2023 is not the end of Nigeria. We must guard the honour that we are known for.

Repeat Disaster

Southern partners of the north have been changing over the years but they remain constantly relevant. The North must not return to those days of serial losses by promoting a candidate acceptable only to it. This is the situation that the Atiku ticket presents today, regrettably.

Our brother, the Wazirin Adamawa, His Excellency, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, has failed, against all advice, to patiently nurture the support of the South-south in 2011 after losing the ticket to the incumbent. Instead, he supported Buhari of the opposing CPC. Worse still, in 2015 he abandoned the the PDP, led 5 governors in rebellion against the southern President, claiming that it was the north’s turn, and decamped to APC to humiliate Jonathan out of power. Still after Bubari’s 8 years, in 2022, he blocked the emergence of Southeast and south-south candidates, claiming that rotation is a party matter.

Now he has gone to the south-south cup in hand and they paid him back in his own coins. This produced Peter Obi ticket and the G5; two blocks that will deny him the traditional PDP votes in the Southeast and South-south. Southwest is already effectively blocked against him by Tinubu.

The Waziri is effectively left with the North. Here, Benue, Plateau and Southern Kaduna are not likely to vote for “another Fulani”, as we heard them declare repeatedly. The votes of the Muslim North are themselves divided for and against him, not united as they were for Buhari. Borno and Yobe, will massively vote for APC. The ruling party even for kinship will also take Kwara and Kogi. Then incumbency will retain for APC the states of Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Gombe and possibly Katsina. Yes, Waziri will get Adamawa and Taraba and possibly Sokoto and Kebbi. Bauchi and Nasarawa are still uncertain for him. Kano belongs to Kwnkwaso, things being equal.

Then as Babachir and some anti-muslim irredentists are threatening northern Muslims of humiliation, a block vote, including Kano, in favour of the Muslim-Muslim ticket is possible. That will seal the fate of Atiku decisively.

Now, this calculus does not add up to an electoral win in any way. It is a recipe for the disasters of 2003, 2007 and 2011 to repeat themselves.

Existential Threat

Babachir’s insolence is an evil that must be disproved and defeated by both Muslims and Christians. Those who failed to earn the APC VP ticket should return and introspect on why they were not considered electorally viable enough to win it, not resort to blackmailing and threatening Muslims. That will only prove the evil that they are, which made it right for the Jagaba to reject them in the first place. Nobody can publicly say he will teach 120 million citizens a lesson and be allowed to succeed unless if those citizens are worse than donkeys. No lion can stand an army of 120 million donkeys. None.

Now Babachir’s insult has pushed even the reluctant Muslims to prove their electoral worth as they are increasingly rallying behind the Muslim-Muslim ticket. The majority well-meaning Christians should also do the same. Babachir is posing an existential threat to all northerners. If there is a Christian who will be fair to Muslims tomorrow, I and many Muslims will vote for him, as many of us did for Obasanjo and Jonathan between 1999 and 2011. But a genocidal psychopath of whatever religion does not deserve to be even a deputy local government chairman anywhere in this country. Let us leave him to grumble and crumble alone.

Same faith tickets are not new in Nigeria and they are presently practiced in all predominantly Christian States like Plateau, Benue, Edo and even in a number of Southwestern states where Muslims are predominant. Their Muslims have not threatened our national security for their selfish reasons as Babachir and his gang of rejects are doing up here. Tam.

Pros and Cons

Beyond the acquaintance, honour of reciprocity, averting past electoral disasters suffered by the North and the existential challenge of the Babachirs, the Tinubu/ Shettima ticket presents a lot of pros which my readers expressed when I asked their opinion on the my Facebook page last week. I share the views of those who are convinced of the Jagaba’s record performance in Lagos, arguably the best that the country has known of a governor since 1999, which, according to the readers, came from his courage, team work, modernity, foresight, talent hunting, etc.

For a person who also believes in efficiency, I cannot but be attracted to the Jagaba. Nigeria needs system upgrading and in some areas even disk reformatting. The Jagaba is the perfect person with the record to handle that squarely. No one better than him can pursue digital reform in commerce, taxation, education, governance, communications, etc. His pragmatism and penchant for modernity is needed to solve our security and other challenges. Who can project the success story of Lagos at the national level better than its original author—the Jagaba? None of my readers has denied him these qualities.

From among my readers who are opposed to the Tinubu Presidency are a number of cons which arise from five sources: the perceived limitations of age and the much touted fake stories of his sickness; the accusation of supporting OPC to kill Hausas in Lagos and their molestation while he was governor; the perception of tribalism, as the Igbo and Hausa too are accused of by others; his affiliation to APC and the President, seeing what the readers consider as the failure of the government in many areas in the past 8 years; and the predominantly Christian nature of his house.

Well on the first and last issues, the runner-up candidate, the Waziri, cannot completely acquit himself either. He too is old. Being over 70 he must have evidently slowed down and cannot disclaim having age associated illnesses. Above 60, one must have one or two. They both have slip tongues as President Buhari did in Germany and suffered issues of memory many times. Jos where both misnamed their parties—PDAPC and APDP—was no coincidence. Kwankwaso had it once in Kano too: NPCP. Mischief makers do not deserve our attention.

Even at 61, I have had many times that I could not recall names instantly. The brain just fails to retrieve the information from the disk as fast as when I was much younger. I had the privilege of meeting the Jagaba recently and was surprised that he negated those stories by holding me to a night conversation of one hour after a long day he had in Ebonyi. I watched him appear from his room, walked towards me straight, shook my hands and sat right beside me. There was no sign, then and not in his appearance at Chatham House and the BBC a week later, of a debilitating sickness as purported and he appears to get increasingly stronger. He is alert and he still argues his points as it better than the other candidates.

In any case, the strength of any leader is not in the class of his weight; otherwise, America would have made Tyson a President. It is in the people a leader rallies around him. To be fair to the Jagaba whose talent-hunting obsession is renowned, his Presidency as an institution will run be unhindered by his age. He cannot have our best, the Kashims, the Elrufai’s, the Ribadus, the Hadizas, the Modibbos, the Arabis, etc. and fail to perform. But if he will resort to family and friends instead of competence, then I concede that his age will become aggravating. He is not as old as Mahathir Mohammed or Joe Biden after all, not minding similar attacks from Trump during the 2020 campaigns which the latter has proven wrong.

All said about age, as Muslims, we must believe that “no soul shall die except by the will of God, a decree determined”, as He said in the Qur’an. Period. Furthermore, the constitution has foreseen that and made the necessary provisions, whether an elected President is living or dead.

The Christian component of the Waziri’s family cannot be denied and neither is he a better practicing Muslim than the Jagaba. None of them is a Sheikh or Imam, anyway. We are in the same boat.

The OPC related killings cannot be ascribed to the Jagaba just because he was the Governor of Lagos. We northerners in particular must understand that by now better than anyone. Unfortunately for the Jagaba, he was the Guinea Pig of insurrection in this dispensation. When the OPC came, we had no experience of Plateau, Boko Haram and Bandits. Is it justified for anyone now to equally accuse Governors Sheriff, Shettima, Zulum, Yari, Bello, El-rufa’i or even the President, who has all our war arsenal at his command, of being supporters or financiers or Boko Haram or Bandits? What will be our reaction—believe him or refute him? So if the late Sheikh Jafar were alive, he would have withdrawn his fatwa on the Jagaba for he would have known the hard way that Governors do not have the power of controlling high level violence. They can only cooperate with the Federal Government, which the Jagaba did and OPC was quelled though not before it left many innocents dead, as Boko Haram and bandits are doing for over a decade today.

All the major tribes accuse each other of tribalism. President Buhari is accused of preferring Hausa Muslims in appointments. The Hausa see the Yoruba as more tribal than them though. But the Jagaba has set a record to reckon here. More than any governor, he has elevated non-natives of Lagos including Hausas to levels of commissioners, helped many grow their businesses in Lagos including Dangote. Of course, as with Buhari in 1984 or Elrufai in FCT and now in Kaduna, anyone wanting to modernize cities has to encroach on the business spaces of the common man who is fond of erecting illegal structures. The Jagaba cannot modernize Lagos by magic. He has to touch such structures belonging to commoners too. But all said, I think his inclination for merit in administration will blunt his natural instinct of kinship, which we all share anyway. He may not give 3 ministries to a single Hausaman—as Buhari did to Fashola—but he will not suppress northern talent at all. His record denies that flatly.

Finally, there is nothing he can do regarding the failure of APC. He is undoubtedly its chieftain but not more. Do you want him to decamp to PDP on that count? The President and members of his cabinet should carry their cross—and so should governors, each in his own domain. The Jagaba has acknowledged the successes of the President and has promised to build on his good works. Where necessary, he will change course, surely. I am Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he told the BBC. Come again. Is the alternative—the PDP—in a better position than the APC when it comes to failure of administration?

So put generally, the pros of the Tinubu Presidency will by far outweigh its cons. Yet, there is another pillar of the ticket we must mention before we conclude this piece—the backup.

Kashim Shettima

In his choice of a running mate, the Jagaba has picked a very strategic one. Choosing Kashim earns him not only a reliable and loyal VP, but also a credible one. His Excellency, Alhaji Kashim Shettima, the former Governor of Borno State and a present senator, is not only highly competent but also carries a political aura that can shelter the entire North, coming from the prestigious Kanuri tribe and with the personal humility to listen, respect, engage and accommodate all. He is among our best. You can see him admirably reaching out to so many people and groups everyday, not taking anyone for granted. Yet, even as a future VP, former Governor and a Senator, he will go to the kettle and personally prepare coffea for his guest. That is humility personified.

The Jagaba did not look for a lackluster yes man of no firm roots. He went for a talent that is both loyal and strong enough to support the President, humble enough to follow him and honest enough to caution him. That is my friend and Kanuri master, Kashim. With the Jagaba as the President and him as the VP, I can find no safer shelter among the 2023 presidential camps.

Come with Me

These are my reasons for answering the call to support the Tinubu/Shettima ticket. And I call on every dispassionate mind to do so for the sake of unity and progress of our country. I am not only promising this cause my vote and that of my family, but I will also work hard to earn it many more, as much as my talent, body and resources can afford me in the next two months. Come with me.

May God be with us and guide us to what is best for our dear country as we vote for the next President on 25 February 2023.

Bauchi
20 December 2022

Farewell, Bauchi

وَقُل رَّبِّ أَدۡخِلۡنِی مُدۡخَلَ صِدۡقࣲ وَأَخۡرِجۡنِی مُخۡرَجَ صِدۡقࣲ وَٱجۡعَل لِّی مِن لَّدُنكَ سُلۡطَـٰنࣰا نَّصِیرࣰا﴿ ٨٠ ﴾

And say: My Lord! Cause me to come in with a firm incoming and to go out with a firm outgoing. And give me from Thy presence a sustaining Power. (Al-Isra', Ayah 80)

That was my prayer as I left my office last Thursday after writing a letter to His Excellency, the Governor of Bauchi State, to allow me attend to a call of an associate who direly needs my services.

Few minutes ago, Today, 5 December 2022, I received a letter from the Secretary to the Government conveying my release by His Excellency. In it the Secretary conveyed “the appreciation of the Executive Governor for your contribution to the Education Sector and wish you well in your future endeavour…”

With this my tenure as Commissioner of Education has come to an end. I am happy to see the peaceful ending of what have been very exacting but fruitful years and will ever remain grateful to God who stood by me until the last minute. It was natural that the above verse came to mind as I was taking a memorable snapshot of the office. (Inset) I pray that he will also be with me in my new assignment.

I thank the entire people of Bauchi State for the cooperation they gave me and will ever remain grateful to the public servants with whom I have interacted over the 3 years and three months of my tenure. Of particular mention here are staff of the Ministry, the Zonal Offices and Schools; Teachers, PTAs, SBMCs, Development Partners, NGOs and volunteers.

Thank you all, once more.

Alhamdulillah.
عسى ربى أن يهدينى سواء السبيل…

Dr. Aliyu U. Tilde
5 December 2022

Roboto11:
Obhidiots would insult the hell out of him in 3,2,1...

LilMissRobbie:
Or so you wish... This one is just living in the same delusion that you and your fellow urchins are living in. The delusion that Thiefnubuu who's party has dealt decisively with Northern Christians will win election in North Central and Atiku, an entitled Fulani man will win Elections on South South.

You people are in for rudest shock of your lives by February

Roboto11:
Obhidiots would insult the hell out of him in 3,2,1...

Roboto11:
Mr.Man, continue deceiving yourself.

H

Hoelujohn:
So a party without structures can get 10 million votes? I was thinking Obi will have just 4 votes. Those 4 people tweeting in a room

LilMissRobbie:
Wait o, so Peter Obi will score 200k votes in Edo State

Peter Obi will also score 100k votes in FCT