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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election (2197 Views)
Opinion Poll Favors Tinubu As Atiku Fumbles In Handling PDP Internal Crises / Osigwe Omo-Ikirodah: Why Tinubu's Structure Keeps Standing Tall Despite The Odds / The Odds Against Buhari On Saturday - Vanguard (2) (3) (4)
The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by AyeMoJuba: 2:32am On Jan 10, 2023 |
The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election For those running around focusing on Tinubu’s age, certificates, alleged ill-health, bublubla and Muslim-Muslim ticket, that is an ineffective political tactic. Here is Atiku’s challenge. It is in the numbers! The same applies to Peter Obi or Kwankwanso. Below are 14 Northern states with APC governors. Which one do you think Atiku's PDP, or Kwankwanso's NNPP or Peter Obi's Labour Party will win? 1. Borno state: Babagane Zulum 2. Gombe state: Inuwa Yahaya 3. Jigawa state: Badaru Mohammed 4. Kaduna state: Nasir El Rufai 5. Kano state: Umar Ganduje 6. Katsina state: Aminu Masari 7. Kwara state: Yahaya Bello 8. Nasarawa state: Abdulahi Sule 9. Niger state: Abubakar Bello 10. Plateau state: Simon Lalong 11. Zamfara state: Bello Matawalle 12. Kebbi state: Atiku Bagudu 13. Yobe state: Mai Mala Buni 14. Kogi State: Yaya Bello At the Eagle Square in Abuja, 13 of them campaigned for and got Tinubu elected as the Presidential flagbearer of the APC. Today, all these governors, including Yaya Bello of Kogi State are supporting Tinubu and there is no crack, in their ranks. Not a single crack! Can Atiku or Kwankwanso or Obi peel away any of these governors? Can any of these opposition candidates win any of these states without the governor's support? For emphasis I have also included the south-western states under APC control or in Tinubu’s electoral basket: The South-Western APC state are: 1. Lagos: Sanwo-Olu 2. Ekiti: Abiodun Oyebanji 3. Ogun: Dapo Abiodun 4. Ondo: Rotimi Akeredolu 5. Osun 6. Oyo Which of these states can Atiku or Kwankwanso or Obi win? To complicate Atiku’s path to victory is the enthusiasm being generated mostly in some southern cities for Peter Obi's Candidacy. In the south, the PDP is mostly dominant in the South South and South East. Even 3 of the governors in these states are APC! In 2015, the APC won mainly because all the opposition political parties merged and formed a formidable political platform whereas the ruling PDP was enmeshed in an intractable crisis and a political war of attrition with at least 5 sitting governors, the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, several senators and House of Representatives members including serving Ministers leaving the party. The exact reverse scenario is playing out in 2023. The APC is intact but the opposition is sinking deeper into opposition and is fragmented with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwanso leaving the PDP. The PDP G-5 governors have crossed the rubicon and will not be supporting Atiku’s candidacy in the presidential election. They are expected to declare their support for either Tinubu or less likely Peter Obi in the coming days. This will be fatal to Atiku’s chances and unlikely to shore up Peter Obi's chances in any significant manner. Until we see a crack in the APC governor's support, Tinubu is sitting pretty well and the odds are clearly in his favour to win. The opponents of the APC Candidate say the Buhari administration has not done well but this is vehemently contested by APC party stalwarts who insisted that Buhari is the best thing to happen to Nigeria. Will this count during the 2023 Presidential election? The answer so far is No using Ekiti Governor election as a barometer, even though it is a very small sample size. Even the Osun election was won by PDP simply because Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and his faction of the APC are alleged to have worked against the candidate of the APC. Those opposed to Tinubu, rather than hold him to a campaign of issues are wasting their time with his age, alleged ill-health, his Muslim choice as running mate etc. They even want the courts and INEC to disqualify Tinubu. None of these will work or even happen! Indeed, Tinubu has so far campaigned more hungrily and more comprehensively than any of his challengers. From the UK to Saudi Arabia, then Kano and Edo states and then back to Kano...all in 4 days! On monday, 9th January, he will be in Adamawa state with President Muhammadu Buhari leading the charge for votes in the state and other core northern states in quick succession putting a lie to the claim by the PDP that Buhari has vowed not to join the Asiwaju campaign train. The supposedly fitter candidates are all lagging behind Asiwaju. The only way to defeat Tinubu will be at the ballot by all the opposition candidates stepping down for only one of them but this will also never happen. Tinubu is still in pole position for now and coasting to victory. Atiku lacks the bite... majority of southerners are also unlikely to stomach a potential 16 years of a northerner presidency. In a very commendable display of statesmanship, patriotism and to guarantee national cohesion stability, the political leaders of Northern Nigeria also desire to respect the North-South power rotation on which plank President Goodluck Jonathan was defeated in the North and then eventually nationally in 2015. It is almost late in the day to upstage the entrenched political system in Nigeria and by the current political and electoral system and in a free and fair contest, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears unstoppable and a Jagaban presidency looms large. Written by Dr. Philip Ugbodaga, Citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (CFRN) *Many analysts predicted a united PDP and a divided APC* Unfortunately for them, There's a united APC and a divided PDP 17 Likes 6 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Ennoloa: 2:37am On Jan 10, 2023 |
If you think people still vote by Party in this hardship You are deluded I voted Adeleke over Oyetola but that doesn't mean I would vote Atiku over PO First-time voter here with my household 29 Likes 6 Shares
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Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Typicool8(m): 2:47am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Ennoloa: Lol you want to give residents urchins like ihordspy, , madridguy, ngeneukwenu, pandoraobi, seunmsg, tinubuadvocate, etc heart attack this early morning 21 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Urheadmaster(m): 2:50am On Jan 10, 2023 |
The citizens vote in the next presidential election is going to shock all of the entire APC and PDP governors. The people's choice of president for the next presidential election in Nigeria cannot be decided by APC and PDP governors. 16 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by MANNABBQGRILLS: 3:42am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Until we see a crack in the APC governor's support, Tinubu is sitting pretty well and the odds are clearly in his favour to win. 9 Likes 4 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Eriggs: 3:43am On Jan 10, 2023 |
TINUBU is the next president of Nigeria. Know this, know peace. 14 Likes 6 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Moh247: 3:45am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Even the opposition are coming to terms with the reality 10 Likes 5 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by PrinceOfLagos: 4:01am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Ennoloa:Allow them to continue to fool themselves There rented crowds in Kano will disappoint them on election just like it happened in Osun state I thank President Muhammadu Buhari for the BVAs and electronic transmission of results thag will be used in this election in February. We Nigerians will do the rest with our PVC for our preferred candidate Mr Peter Obi. 13 Likes 1 Share
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Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Buccalcavity2: 4:02am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Good job OP. This is what they call "speak to the numbers" in appraisal. They who will not hear will be made to feel soon. 8 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by AdamuKD: 4:02am On Jan 10, 2023 |
You are a joker. zombie Keep gambling with your future and your generational future because of politics mumu 2 Likes |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by socialmediaman: 4:07am On Jan 10, 2023 |
PDP had 23 state governors going into the 2015 presidential election Cc AyeMojuba 2 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Sannisege: 4:13am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Ennoloa:You are evidence of the division the author is talking about. Ordinarily your vote should have gone to Atiku but it’s now going Obi. In other words, you are voting for PDPlite at the expense of the original PDP. APC still has the advantage. 13 Likes 4 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by sapele914(m): 4:37am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Urheadmaster:Conceding but not admitting he gets there, You better vote the laborious parties National House of Assembly candidates, because Pdp & Apc would impeach The Apga Judas/Pdp runaway before August 30th. 6 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Karlovych: 4:38am On Jan 10, 2023 |
The cocaine peddler must lose in February 5 Likes 1 Share
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Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by sapele914(m): 4:40am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Karlovych:He his a peddler? false accusation, Jagaban is taking all accusations like a leader, ordinary small yab they yab darty em they cry for National Tv? Una wailing never start. 9 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Obidient4life3: 4:40am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Agbado statistics 2 Likes |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Validated: 4:42am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Deluded and Always Pathetically Confused This election will shock una. 1 Like |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by after4: 4:43am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Dem never born all of una well including the once that will want to impeach obi. Dem no born that persin papa well sapele914: 3 Likes |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by after4: 4:43am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Go and tell that to FBI sapele914: |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Karlovych: 4:44am On Jan 10, 2023 |
sapele914:Buhari at 80 is healthier than this creature 2 Likes
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Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by sapele914(m): 4:45am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Sannisege:Let the Obidients not worry, after the elections Obi will reveal to them that he was working for Bola Tinubu. 7 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by sapele914(m): 4:45am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Karlovych:Post photo of your own healthy papa if you get liver? Shameless Confused Ipobian turned Obidient. 7 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by FreeStuffsNG: 4:47am On Jan 10, 2023 |
AyeMoJuba: 4 Likes 3 Shares
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Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by Karlovych: 4:49am On Jan 10, 2023 |
sapele914:What makes you think I'm an Igbo man? So everyone against Tinubu is Igbo? 4 Likes 1 Share |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by aariwa(m): 5:07am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Just few weeks to elections now..can’t wait to celebrate president Obi 3 Likes |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by yashau(m): 5:07am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Jagaban is the next President of the Federal Republic Nigeria everyone knew that 4 Likes 3 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by senatordave1(m): 5:25am On Jan 10, 2023 |
aariwa: Tinubu 3 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by stev120(m): 5:34am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Over the years PDP continues to win Nassarawa and Plateau in presidential elections 14-2 = 12 Pdp have a great share in northeast that is Atiku's region Adamawa and Sokoto. The remaining 4 north east will be shared. In Northwest, if you deny the presence of Kwankwanso then you're planing to rigg this election. Kwankwanso represents the Northerner that are tired of both PDP and APC. There is a sure bet that Kwankwaso will beat 40% of northwest and even wining Kano. PDP also have presence in north west with this, the north block vote is scattered. In northcentral only Niger state, Kogi, Kwara and Kaduna are APC states the rest are always won by PDP during presidential elections. But this time we see strong LP presence in Abuja, Benue, parts of Nassarawa and might blow huge part of Taraba because Taraba has always voted in line with southeast and south south. In Southwest, APC will do well but not as expected, if you think that Nigerians are not sentimental in regards to religion then you have not been following Nigeria politics. PDP have 2 states in Southwest, APC have 4. both PDP, APC and LP will share Southwest will APC might slightly take the bigger potion. The only region promising block vote is South east and south south and LP have strong presence there. PDP might have some share though but very poor. 3 gaint parties have shared the north (APC, PDP NNPP) in north Central LP join them, in south west LP got better share and might do better than PDP. After looking at this and the requirement of the winner which is 25% in 24 states I see APC and LP in the front. If religion plays LP might surprise other parties in Christian dominated northern areas like Bauchi, Kaduna parts of Adamawa big shock in Platuea. |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by SAMJAY7: 5:37am On Jan 10, 2023 |
Tinubu is the next president of the federal republic of Nigeria 2 Likes 2 Shares |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by SAMJAY7: 5:38am On Jan 10, 2023 |
after4:Lol Your demented Obi was the first governor in history to be impeached two times That aside, na who win dem dey impeach.. 3 Likes 1 Share |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by aariwa(m): 5:39am On Jan 10, 2023 |
senatordave1:nice, will vote for Obi |
Re: The Odds Favors Tinubu To Win The 2023 Presidential Election by ibechris(m): 5:40am On Jan 10, 2023 |
[quote author= post=119884107][/quote] This one still dey talk. I know how cheap u are buying fuel now. |
2023 Presidential Situation Reports So Far. / Tinubu Wins Shagari Local Government - Vanguard / Class Of 1999 are Back In Power As Akande, Odili and Ibori Welcome Tinubu To PHC
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