SmartPolician:
With Simon Ekpa's breakaway IPOB, South East even has a bigger voter apathy due to insecurity. That said, I see this election going into a runoff because I can't pick out one clear leader.

SmartPolician:
With Simon Ekpa's breakaway IPOB, South East even has a bigger voter apathy due to insecurity. That said, I see this election going into a runoff because I can't pick out one clear leader.

YorubaNiBaba:
Ogbeni, why u dey rush?.... Wait now, feb 25 no far again, boys will be separated from men, people go know who be oga in this naija politics

Trollronaldo:
Well, that's true but we will see how this goes. Because there's also a lot of insecurities in northwest and northeast

PrinceOfLagos:
Bola Tinubu and his herds of unintelligent urchins will be retired permanently in February

senatordave1:


Even when sw record low turnout,it surpasses se.in 2011,turnout was 4.5 mil.in 2015,it was 4.2.in 2019,it was 4 mil.in se,2011 was 4.5 mil.2015 was 3.2 mil.in 2019,it was 2 mil.mind you in 2011 and 2015,gej was contesting and south east liked gej very well while in same period,the sw didnt really like anybody.so let's assume that highest se will turnout is 4 mil and with Tinubu being Yoruba sw,will churnout 5 mil.ss should average 5 mil.
Average turnout in the north is 16 mil and tinubu will get at least 40% which is about 6 mil plus 3 mil in sw and 1 m in se/ss.obi gets 3 mil in se plus 3 mil in ss plus 1 mil in sw plus 1 mil in north.so tinubu wins

tempest01:


Very unintelligent urchins. One was arguing with me back then that SS and SE are inconsequential.

In an election with 3 major candidates, you are sidelining two major regions.

They should keep suppressing voters in Lagos. We will respond accordingly. Thugs and miscreants will not be given power to run our affairs.

Trollronaldo:
If you remove Lagos, southwest doesn't surpass SE. It is why I said, Lagos is not even Tinubu"s stronghold.

Look at it critically

YorubaNiBaba:
Lagos is obi's stronghold abi, we shall see

SmartPolician:
With Simon Ekpa's breakaway IPOB, South East even has a bigger voter apathy due to insecurity. That said, I see this election going into a runoff because I can't pick out one clear leader.

Trollronaldo:
If you remove Lagos, southwest doesn't surpass SE. It is why I said, Lagos is not even Tinubu"s stronghold.

Look at it critically

senatordave1:


If you remove lagos,tinubu will still beat obi by 2 million in the other 5 states

Trollronaldo:
nope, Lagos is no one's stronghold. The votes in Lagos will be evenly scattered between Obi and Tinubu

senatordave1:


If you remove lagos,tinubu will still beat obi by 2 million in the other 5 states

YorubaNiBaba:
As i talk am earlier, feb 25 no far again, u go see results and u go faint

senatordave1:


If you remove lagos,tinubu will still beat obi by 2 million in the other 5 states

senatordave1:


Even when sw record low turnout,it surpasses se.in 2011,turnout was 4.5 mil.in 2015,it was 4.2.in 2019,it was 4 mil.in se,2011 was 4.5 mil.2015 was 3.2 mil.in 2019,it was 2 mil.mind you in 2011 and 2015,gej was contesting and south east liked gej very well while in same period,the sw didnt really like anybody.so let's assume that highest se will turnout is 4 mil and with Tinubu being Yoruba sw,will churnout 5 mil.ss should average 5 mil.
Average turnout in the north is 16 mil and tinubu will get at least 40% which is about 6 mil plus 3 mil in sw and 1 m in se/ss.obi gets 3 mil in se plus 3 mil in ss plus 1 mil in sw plus 1 mil in north.so tinubu wins

mrvitalis:

You suspiciously removed how many votes obi would get in the south west ?

Obi would get 1 million vote in the north ? Is that for Kaduna ,or for taraba or Adamawa or plateau or Benue or nassarawa ?

There is no way Tinubu is getting 40% of northern votes absolutely no way ...obi is getting minimum of 20% , kwankwaso 15% minimum Atiku 35% minimum the maximum Tinubu would get is 30 percent

Trollronaldo:
ok how much votes do you think Obi will use in beating Tinubu in southeast?

senatordave1:


2.5 mil highest.

Trollronaldo:
After the release of the voter's summary, it turns out that Peter Obi's stronghold of southsouth and southeast havd huge voter's card holders than Tinubu's stronghold.

As a matter of fact, we cannot add Lagos state to Tinubu's stronghold, Tinubu might lose Lagos if care is not taking. However, I think that Tinubu will win in other parts of southwest. The voter's summary suggest that southeast has more registered voters than other 5 southwest states. Even without including southsouth were Peter Obi will obviously outperform Tinubu, there's still lot of issues:

1. Southwest, irrespective of whether their tribesman is contesting or they have security challenges has always shown voter's apathy. Take your time and look at past elections, people in southwest don't participate in elections as much as other parts of the country. They almost always register the lowest percentage of voter's turnout.



2. Peter Obi is likely to get more votes in other 5 states of southwest than Tinubu will get in Southeast. Many people will argue this because they are hoping APC leaders in southeast can help them buy votes, it won't be enough to overturn the votes Peter Obi will get in southwest. Vote buying is not easy to orchestrate smoothly.

3. A good historical analysis of southeast voting record shows that southeast usually turns out to vote whenever they have a candidate that they like and want. You can take out time to do the analysis.

4. Tinubu Will have to win northwest and northeast do even have a chance in this election. Which is like the hardest thing in this election, knowing fully well that he has formidable opponents in Atiku and Kwankwaso.

5. Please let's vote for Sowore.

Trollronaldo:
okay, going by that, we agree that Peter Obi can get more votes in southwest and southeast combined?