Trollronaldo:
nope, Lagos is no one's stronghold. The votes in Lagos will be evenly scattered between Obi and Tinubu

Lagos state that apc has never lost since 1999? Atiku will get more votes in Lagos than obi,bookmark this page

senatordave1:


Even when sw record low turnout,it surpasses se.in 2011,turnout was 4.5 mil.in 2015,it was 4.2.in 2019,it was 4 mil.in se,2011 was 4.5 mil.2015 was 3.2 mil.in 2019,it was 2 mil.mind you in 2011 and 2015,gej was contesting and south east liked gej very well while in same period,the sw didnt really like anybody.so let's assume that highest se will turnout is 4 mil and with Tinubu being Yoruba sw,will churnout 5 mil.ss should average 5 mil.
Average turnout in the north is 16 mil and tinubu will get at least 40% which is about 6 mil plus 3 mil in sw and 1 m in se/ss.obi gets 3 mil in se plus 3 mil in ss plus 1 mil in sw plus 1 mil in north.so tinubu wins

Garfield and reliance on ancient data. Smh.

SmartPolician:
With Simon Ekpa's breakaway IPOB, South East even has a bigger voter apathy due to insecurity. That said, I see this election going into a runoff because I can't pick out one clear leader.

That's the game plan of Tinubu, but we've long handled that. If you know, you know

Indispensable85:
I have observed that the Igbos are very poor in the art of politics. They're all about emotions and nothing else. They're poor students of politics. Lol....they know nothing. This is why they're always on the losing side over and over again.

But yorubas were great in politics as opposition since 1999-2015? Cry more boss. Feb 25th no far.

politician and his herders of unintelligent urchins will be retired permanently in February

tamdun:

Lagos state that apc has never lost since 1999? Atiku will get more votes in Lagos than obi,bookmark this page

ye, because they rig without bvas. They write election results in government house.

Trollronaldo:
Lol

Okay man, if that makes you happy.

Don't argue politics with that guy. He's the same person, Garfield on this forum. Always producing jaundiced analysis and stupid takes. February is upon us and I maintain that the top contenders in my book are Atiku and Peter Obi.

If the election goes into a run off, Peter and Atiku may be in that, being that one takes his highest spread and highest numbers. Peter already has at least 15 states as of today where he'll get 25%.

SmartPolician:
With Simon Ekpa's breakaway IPOB, South East even has a bigger voter apathy due to insecurity. That said, I see this election going into a runoff because I can't pick out one clear leader.

You are wrong, South East is very peaceful than NE, NW, NC. Election will hold and there will be massive turn out in SE has never seen before. Last year I transverse over 26 state in Nigeria and I must say that SE is one of the few region we travelled at night without fear of the known and the unknown.

senatordave1:


Even when sw record low turnout,it surpasses se.in 2011,turnout was 4.5 mil.in 2015,it was 4.2.in 2019,it was 4 mil.in se,2011 was 4.5 mil.2015 was 3.2 mil.in 2019,it was 2 mil.mind you in 2011 and 2015,gej was contesting and south east liked gej very well while in same period,the sw didnt really like anybody.so let's assume that highest se will turnout is 4 mil and with Tinubu being Yoruba sw,will churnout 5 mil.ss should average 5 mil.
Average turnout in the north is 16 mil and tinubu will get at least 40% which is about 6 mil plus 3 mil in sw and 1 m in se/ss.obi gets 3 mil in se plus 3 mil in ss plus 1 mil in sw plus 1 mil in north.so tinubu wins

SenatorDaft I see you

Trollronaldo:
After the release of the voter's summary, it turns out that Peter Obi's stronghold of southsouth and southeast havd huge voter's card holders than Tinubu's stronghold.

As a matter of fact, we cannot add Lagos state to Tinubu's stronghold, Tinubu might lose Lagos if care is not taking. However, I think that Tinubu will win in other parts of southwest. The voter's summary suggest that southeast has more registered voters than other 5 southwest states. Even without including southsouth were Peter Obi will obviously outperform Tinubu, there's still lot of issues:

1. Southwest, irrespective of whether their tribesman is contesting or they have security challenges has always shown voter's apathy. Take your time and look at past elections, people in southwest don't participate in elections as much as other parts of the country. They almost always register the lowest percentage of voter's turnout.



2. Peter Obi is likely to get more votes in other 5 states of southwest than Tinubu will get in Southeast. Many people will argue this because they are hoping APC leaders in southeast can help them buy votes, it won't be enough to overturn the votes Peter Obi will get in southwest. Vote buying is not easy to orchestrate smoothly.

3. A good historical analysis of southeast voting record shows that southeast usually turns out to vote whenever they have a candidate that they like and want. You can take out time to do the analysis.

4. Tinubu Will have to win northwest and northeast do even have a chance in this election. Which is like the hardest thing in this election, knowing fully well that he has formidable opponents in Atiku and Kwankwaso.

5. Please let's vote for Sowore.

Another bear parlor post.
People deceiving themselves.