₦airaland Forum

Wow only illiterate supporting APC and PDP ipob terrorist are just a fool.

kcpumping:
The truth is literacy will play lots of roll in Fct and as such Labour has it.

Plateau and benue will go to Labour and again literacy will play out.

I don't know much about other state as it were.


Thanks

DMerciful:
Thats what they made you to believe. If you vote for Obi and I vote for Obi and we convince atleast 3 persons to vote for Obi why wont he win?

Dor how long would we continue to chant this structure nonsenae? You think it will wnd by itself if we dont kill it like corruption?

Politics is about interest and your interest might not be what is pushing those in the rural areas. Obi is just rave, he'll will make an impact but will definitely not win any state in the NC

aninibinladen:
Politics is about interest and your interest might not be what is pushing those in the rural areas. Obi is just rave, he'll will make an impact but will definitely not win any state in the NC

You are largely right

Aufbauh:
Benue state may be a joker for LP in the presidential election.
However the salient question is whether Obi has the money or the willingness to mobilize for the election.

Benue voters most especially those in the rural don't do a thing without an immediate interest. Those ones will go with the highest bidder and the direction of their benefactors.

Go and check 2011/2015/2019 presidential election results from Benue, I think it will help clear your doubts. Tribal and religious Sentiments plays a major role in Benue politics.
With APC failures and their mu-mu ticket just like the pdp Fulani and various propagandas will tell you a lot on why obi is getting more popular in Benue But not really significant in a place like Kogi even though both states are close to East.

aninibinladen:
False, LP will not win any state in the North Central. The LP noise in those States resides only in the state capitals.

And the people staying in the capital fell from the sky?

aninibinladen:
Several people have projected the North Central to be the battle ground in the 2023 Presidential elections.

1. FCT: A traditional PDP stronghold, the party has produced the senators from 1999 to date and the two current rep members are of the PDP. The APC has not made much in-roads especially in the hinterlands while the LP will benefit from the young voters within the city center/suburbs and the voters of eastern origin, NNPP is non existent. In 2019 the PDP won with 61% of the votes and the party still has a strong grip on the rural voters within the territory and from the lack lustre push by the other parties, FCT will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 40%
LP 30%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

2. PLATEAU: Despite having a sitting APC governor in 2019, the party lost the presidential election to the PDP who won by 53%. 2023 will not be any different. Inspite the Governor being the DG of the APC campaign, Lalong keeps losing his political capital in the state by the day and of the 8 rep members, the PDP has 4 with the APC having 3 while the PRP has 1 although the APC has 2 of the 3 senators. The decision of the APC to go with a muslim/muslim ticket will without a doubt affect the results that will come out from plateau and the LP will not doubt benefit from the APC's choice of running mate especially in the urban areas however the rural areas is a different ball game. Plateau will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 45%
LP 25%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

3. KWARA: On performance the APC Governor has done poorly and the dislike for Lai Mohammed in his Oro is on the high. However, the APC still controls almost all the elective seats at the National assembly. A reinvigorated Saraki might try to push the numbers but I don't see much of an outcome, the LP is almost non-existent in here. Kwara is for APC.

Projection:
APC 60%
PDP 30%
LP 5%
OTHERS 5%

4. KOGI: It might be safe to say Kogi is in the bag for APC but saying that is disregarding the dynamics that may play out. The white Lion has a strong grip on the affairs of the state but the reality of 2023 elections is that the influence of Governors on the electorates will be diminished. Kogi Central and west maybe safe bets for APC but Kogi East that is most populous has some PDP sentiments. Kogi will go APC.

Projection:
APC 45%
PDP 30%
LP 20%
OTHERS 5%

5. BENUE: The APC has a strong Gubernatorial candidate in the person of Rev. Alia while the PDP's candidate for Governor is weak coupled with Ortom's abysmal performance as the State's chief executive and his non support for his party's Presidential candidate, but this does not tell the full story. APC though with a good candidate at the state level also has weak candidates for the National assembly elections and that election is the one that holds together with the presidential election. The LP is popular within the urban areas of the State but is non-existent in the rural areas. The PDP on the other hand has strong candidates (Suswam, Abba Morro etc) lining up on election day and almost all the state zonal big-wigs (Mark, Suswam, Morro, Jev etc) have refused to follow Ortom in his Wike adventure. Benue goes to PDP

Projection:
PDP 40%
APC 30%
LP 25%
OTHERS 5%

6. NASARAWA: Previously a traditional PDP State, the SDP somewhat has a statement in this state with 2 of the 5 rep members, the APC also has 2 while the PDP has 1 however the APC only edged out PDP by less than 6000 votes in 2019. The APC like in 2019 goes into the election with the strength of two former Governors and a sitting Governor but like in 2019 that will not count. LP will do well in the States most populous local government but one local government doesn't cut it. Nasarawa is too close to call.

Projection:
PDP 35%
APC 35%
LP 20%
SDP 5%
OTHERS 5%

7. NIGER: This is a strong APC State and the only thing giving others a chance here is ethnic sentiments as well as the poor performance of the APC in the State. If not for the presence of Ortom's Benue, Niger will rank top in terms of abysmal performance. Both the PDP and the NNPP candidates are popular amongst the masses while the LP has no traction in the State. The APC will rely on incumbency factor but the fact remains; Buhari will not be on the ballot. APC will struggle to win this State and so this is also too close to call.

Projection:
APC 40%
PDP 40%
NNPP 15%
OTHERS 5%





Mynd44
Lalasticlala

Just have it in mind that North central has more learned people than you think.

Risentouch:
Go and check 2011/2015/2019 presidential election results from Benue, I think it will help clear your doubts. Tribal and religious Sentiments plays a major role in Benue politics.
With APC failures and their mu-mu ticket just like the pdp Fulani and various propagandas will tell you a lot on why obi is getting more popular in Benue But not really significant in a place like Kogi even though both states are close to East.

Oga I'm actually from this place and I've being conversant with the politics having participated myself back in 2015.
In fact I left Owukpa 4 days ago doing an inventory on ecological challenges in the District.

Incidentally Benue is the only state in the 19 northern States that has no underlying sharp religious divide being that it's predominantly a Christian state. This point to the fact that religious intolerance is non existence as there's no avenue to even comes up in the first place.

I've done a thread on the voting patterns and trends on nairaland recently so I am conversant with every facts and figures about Nigeria presidential election since 1993.

You could recall that in spite of the fulani killers herdmen propaganda by outsiders and the Governor himself prior to 2019, Atiku barely defeated Buhari with just 7k votes.

Benue people are not tribal or religious sensitive as you alluded, rather lean to individual interest and benefit at a time. This tell why no candidate can get a bloc votes from the state.

Penguin2:
And the people staying in the capital fell from the sky?

No, they cropped up from the ground.

Look, you simply can't have what is not there.

Aufbauh:
Oga I'm actually from this place and I've being conversant with the politics having participated myself back in 2015.
In fact I left Owukpa 4 days ago doing an inventory on ecological challenges in the District.

Incidentally Benue is the only state in the 19 northern States that has no underlying sharp religious divide being that it's predominantly a Christian state. This point to the fact that religious intolerance is non existence as there's no avenue to even comes up in the first place.

I've done a thread on the voting patterns and trends on nairaland recently so I am conversant with every facts and figures about Nigeria presidential election since 1993.

You could recall that in spite of the fulani killers herdmen propaganda by outsiders and the Governor himself prior to 2019, Atiku barely defeated Buhari with just 7k votes.

Benue people are not tribal or religious sensitive as you alluded, rather lean to individual interest and benefit at a time. This tell why no candidate can get a bloc votes from the state.

You are largely correct here.

Even at the heat of the herdsmen massacre and heavy opposition from the Governor, Buhari still did well in Benue due to political interest and benefits from the leaders. This is the reason I believe Benue will go PDP as this is the party with solid candidates and individuals rooting for Atiku. Muslim/Muslim or fulani ticket will not be much of a factor.

aninibinladen:
Several people have projected the North Central to be the battle ground in the 2023 Presidential elections.

1. FCT: A traditional PDP stronghold, the party has produced the senators from 1999 to date and the two current rep members are of the PDP. The APC has not made much in-roads especially in the hinterlands while the LP will benefit from the young voters within the city center/suburbs and the voters of eastern origin, NNPP is non existent. In 2019 the PDP won with 61% of the votes and the party still has a strong grip on the rural voters within the territory and from the lack lustre push by the other parties, FCT will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 40%
LP 30%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

2. PLATEAU: Despite having a sitting APC governor in 2019, the party lost the presidential election to the PDP who won by 53%. 2023 will not be any different. Inspite the Governor being the DG of the APC campaign, Lalong keeps losing his political capital in the state by the day and of the 8 rep members, the PDP has 4 with the APC having 3 while the PRP has 1 although the APC has 2 of the 3 senators. The decision of the APC to go with a muslim/muslim ticket will without a doubt affect the results that will come out from plateau and the LP will not doubt benefit from the APC's choice of running mate especially in the urban areas however the rural areas is a different ball game. Plateau will go to PDP.

Projection:
PDP 45%
LP 25%
APC 25%
OTHERS 5%

3. KWARA: On performance the APC Governor has done poorly and the dislike for Lai Mohammed in his Oro is on the high. However, the APC still controls almost all the elective seats at the National assembly. A reinvigorated Saraki might try to push the numbers but I don't see much of an outcome, the LP is almost non-existent in here. Kwara is for APC.

Projection:
APC 60%
PDP 30%
LP 5%
OTHERS 5%

4. KOGI: It might be safe to say Kogi is in the bag for APC but saying that is disregarding the dynamics that may play out. The white Lion has a strong grip on the affairs of the state but the reality of 2023 elections is that the influence of Governors on the electorates will be diminished. Kogi Central and west maybe safe bets for APC but Kogi East that is most populous has some PDP sentiments. Kogi will go APC.

Projection:
APC 45%
PDP 30%
LP 20%
OTHERS 5%

5. BENUE: The APC has a strong Gubernatorial candidate in the person of Rev. Alia while the PDP's candidate for Governor is weak coupled with Ortom's abysmal performance as the State's chief executive and his non support for his party's Presidential candidate, but this does not tell the full story. APC though with a good candidate at the state level also has weak candidates for the National assembly elections and that election is the one that holds together with the presidential election. The LP is popular within the urban areas of the State but is non-existent in the rural areas. The PDP on the other hand has strong candidates (Suswam, Abba Morro etc) lining up on election day and almost all the state zonal big-wigs (Mark, Suswam, Morro, Jev etc) have refused to follow Ortom in his Wike adventure. Benue goes to PDP

Projection:
PDP 40%
APC 30%
LP 25%
OTHERS 5%

6. NASARAWA: Previously a traditional PDP State, the SDP somewhat has a statement in this state with 2 of the 5 rep members, the APC also has 2 while the PDP has 1 however the APC only edged out PDP by less than 6000 votes in 2019. The APC like in 2019 goes into the election with the strength of two former Governors and a sitting Governor but like in 2019 that will not count. LP will do well in the States most populous local government but one local government doesn't cut it. Nasarawa is too close to call.

Projection:
PDP 35%
APC 35%
LP 20%
SDP 5%
OTHERS 5%

7. NIGER: This is a strong APC State and the only thing giving others a chance here is ethnic sentiments as well as the poor performance of the APC in the State. If not for the presence of Ortom's Benue, Niger will rank top in terms of abysmal performance. Both the PDP and the NNPP candidates are popular amongst the masses while the LP has no traction in the State. The APC will rely on incumbency factor but the fact remains; Buhari will not be on the ballot. APC will struggle to win this State and so this is also too close to call.

Projection:
APC 40%
PDP 40%
NNPP 15%
OTHERS 5%





Mynd44
Lalasticlala

Because of this your projection I'm now following you.

Your knowledge of North Central politics is very high.

Can you do for other regions? I want to see something.

If your don't have much information about other regions to form your projection....just don't bother.

senatordave1:
I like your analysis.I totally agree with your analysis on nasarawa.but what applies in nasarawa will be replicated in fct and plateau.
In plateau,pdp won narrowly with 53% in 2019 but pdp has been weakened by defections to lp plus pdp is divided between jang who is pro wike and useni who is for atiku.most lp supporters were formerly supporting pdp so pdp votes will nose dive.the anti fulani sentiment is vey high and they usually give more votes to southerners or Christians.for the apc,ex gov dariye who is still popular has endorsed tinubu and with lalong being on the ballot and also as dg of apc campaign,he will deliver plateau south by any means.it will be lp 40% apc 32% pdp 28%..

We have similar scenario in benue buy here,the voers are clearly against atiku due yo anti fulani sentiment plus the recent comment of ortom against him.obi will win benue,while apc will come a close second due to the popularity of akume,fr alia.in benue south,the apc candidate Daniel onjeh is very popular.david mark's daughter is also acceptable.it should be lp 45% apc 30% pdp 25%..
In fct,pdp usually wins narrowly but with most pdp voters going with lp,it is bad news for pdp...apc 30% pdp 30% lp 30% nnpp 10.
I thought niger was 50% 50% but with the recent rally in niger and all opinions poll results,tinubu will edge out atiku.apc 45% pdp 30% nnpp 15% lp 10%..
Buhari got 70% in kwara.with lp reducing pdp vote box,tinubu will get nothing less.apc 70% pdp 20% lp 10

You did well too...adding your factors and his together...the outcome isn't too far from each other

People in the rural areas are enjoying the economy and security?

aninibinladen:
Politics is about interest and your interest might not be what is pushing those in the rural areas. Obi is just rave, he'll will make an impact but will definitely not win any state in the NC

NigerianAngelo:
This is your unnecessary write up is very uneducated and is reminiscent of the rubbish education in 90% of Nigerian schools (SW especially).

Channel your efforts where you are best (perfect).

Start from there.

For someone who claims to be educated? You might want to re-check the highlighted

Olodo

whatmoreng:
I don't understand why you all are so generous with LP in your analysis. I love Obi but there is no way he will get up to half of all these online projections.
the election is clearly going to PDP. Obi will be president but not this year.

soludo is Igbo candidate, he is a first class material, his achievement in Anambra will convince Nigeria mark it.

kokoA:
Benue and Plateau will rather vote APC Muslim/Muslim ticket than vote another Fulani man.. Anyways I think LP would be winning the two.

one Muslim give them shege , now you are backing two Muslim extremists with majority Fulani backers, you get sense soo.i doubt it

Kiddogarcia:
Let election come and all this permutations and analysis will die a natural death.

Na we be your best plug for everything sexual enhancement tho

buhari is a wicked Fulani man doesn't mean Atiku is bad.is yaradua not Fulani

senatordave1:
I like your analysis.I totally agree with your analysis on nasarawa.but what applies in nasarawa will be replicated in fct and plateau.
In plateau,pdp won narrowly with 53% in 2019 but pdp has been weakened by defections to lp plus pdp is divided between jang who is pro wike and useni who is for atiku.most lp supporters were formerly supporting pdp so pdp votes will nose dive.the anti fulani sentiment is vey high and they usually give more votes to southerners or Christians.for the apc,ex gov dariye who is still popular has endorsed tinubu and with lalong being on the ballot and also as dg of apc campaign,he will deliver plateau south by any means.it will be lp 40% apc 32% pdp 28%..

We have similar scenario in benue buy here,the voers are clearly against atiku due yo anti fulani sentiment plus the recent comment of ortom against him.obi will win benue,while apc will come a close second due to the popularity of akume,fr alia.in benue south,the apc candidate Daniel onjeh is very popular.david mark's daughter is also acceptable.it should be lp 45% apc 30% pdp 25%..
In fct,pdp usually wins narrowly but with most pdp voters going with lp,it is bad news for pdp...apc 30% pdp 30% lp 30% nnpp 10.
I thought niger was 50% 50% but with the recent rally in niger and all opinions poll results,tinubu will edge out atiku.apc 45% pdp 30% nnpp 15% lp 10%..
Buhari got 70% in kwara.with lp reducing pdp vote box,tinubu will get nothing less.apc 70% pdp 20% lp 10

Faultless analysis.

Only February 25 election results can prove you wrong for now.

Pascal9:
one Muslim give them shege , now you are backing two Muslim extremists with majority Fulani backers, you get sense soo.i doubt it

Tinubu and Shettima are not extremists.


Atiku too is not an extremist.


But I hear Peter Obi is a Catholic extremist, that he showed favoritism towards Catholics when he was governor of Anambra state.

BluntTheApostle:
Tinubu and Shettima are not extremists.


Atiku too is not an extremist.


But I hear Peter Obi is a Catholic extremist, that he showed favoritism towards Catholics when he was governor of Anambra state.

Tinubu is not an extremist and yet he chose Muslim Muslim ticket.abegi

Pascal9:
Tinubu is not an extremist and yet he chose Muslim Muslim ticket.abegi

Tell us which Northern Christian can help him win? Which Northern Christian politician do you even know?

It is a matter of winning.


The major aim of a political party is to get power.


Pick up a government textbook and educate yourself.

Agbado Trash.

BluntTheApostle:
Tell us which Northern Christian can help him win? Which Northern Christian politician do you even know?

It is a matter of winning.


The major aim of a political party is to get power.


Pick up a government textbook and educate yourself.

you are not informed, what example is he showing, choosing a Muslim running make in a multi religious country like Nigeria, maybe you are a Muslim or a sycophant, a minority kanuri extremists book haram kingpin will win election for him

Pascal9:
you are not informed, what example is he showing, choosing a Muslim running make in a multi religious country like Nigeria, maybe you are a Muslim or a sycophant, a minority kanuri extremists book haram kingpin will win election for him

Adeleke chose a Christian running mate in a multi religious state like Osun, and the Muslims did not make a big deal out of it.


Moreover, Nigeria is a secular state, at least in principle.


Why are you looking at the religion of candidates, instead of their capacity to perform?


You are indeed the religious bigot here. You are merely projecting your bigotry on me.

BluntTheApostle:
Adeleke chose a Christian running mate in a multi religious state like Osun, and the Muslims did not make a big deal out of it.


Moreover, Nigeria is a secular state, at least in principle.


Why are you looking at the religion of candidates, instead of their capacity to perform?


You are indeed the religious bigot here. You are merely projecting your bigotry on me.

Adeleke is neither a confirmed Muslim or Christian, infact he is more of a Muslim, like his senior brother isiaka and his father, it is only deji Davidos father that is a confirmed Christian, besides which capabilities does Tinubu have, I'm ashame of you

Pascal9:
Adeleke is neither a confirmed Muslim or Christian, infact he is more of a Muslim, like his senior brother isiaka and his father, it is only deji Davidos father that is a confirmed Christian, besides which capabilities does Tinubu have, I'm ashame of you

And so too is Tinubu.

Tinubu's wife is even an evangelist and his son, Seyi Tinubu, is a Christian. Some of his other children are Christians too.

If he didn't Islamize his wife, why then should you think of him as an extremist?

Do you even know the meaning of religious extremism?

Tinubu is the soundest of the presidential candidates.

BluntTheApostle:
And so too is Tinubu.

Tinubu's wife is even an evangelist and his son, Seyi Tinubu, is a Christian. Some of his other children are Christians too.

If he didn't Islamize his wife, why then should you think of him as an extremist?

Do you even know the meaning of religious extremism?

his wife is a Christian for political reasons, we are not fools

Aufbauh:
Yeah the op analysis is close to reality and also your previous observations are equally practicable.

However the op is a little bit more generous to the PDP in these two states you've mentioned as Obi may take more from the PDP support base in these states.

In Benue, I also discovered that Obi is popular in the city centers but that cannot be said of the rural areas.
The influence of party structure and the highest bidder will play predominant role in the rural areas.

What did Ortom tell you the other day, or do you think politicians stick out their necks for the fun of it?.

Pascal9:
his wife is a Christian for political reasons, we are not fools

Explain, please?

Tinubu married Remi in 1987.

He joined politics in 1992.

Are you saying he planned everything before he joined politics?

BluntTheApostle:
Explain, please?

Tinubu married Remi in 1987.

He joined politics in 1992.

Are you saying he planned everything before he joined politics?

off course he is a crook

Pascal9:
off course he is a crook

You are so crooked, you think others are as desperate as you.


Tinubu is a liberal Muslim. He has shown it countless times, domestically and politically.

As governor of Lagos, he presented the first cosmopolitan cabinet any government in Nigeria has presented.

And he has continued to show it.

Who said PDP will win in fct, benue and jos na LP

Labor can not beat apc in the fct

Gwags and abaji are purely apc zones

Amac and bwarri pdp

The indigenes both have formidable sons in apc and pdp. Labor is weak in the rurals, which is where elections are decided.