₦airaland Forum

oladeebo:
....according to your calculation 36-16= 20
Then the twenty state plus Kano,Sokoto,Rivers, Deltal will make Tinubu win
Be sure of that.

Happiness for free, create your own happiness

Is so sad that Nigerians are considering tinubu for presidency

Spirit04:
Lol where exactly is Obi getting 30% from in North Central?
Tinubu Will get a minimum of 60% in
Niger, Kogi and Kwara. Nassarawa, Benue and Plateau will give him at least 30%
The remainder will go to Atiku.
There's zero chance of PDP winning North East when APC will be getting 90%+ in Borno and Yobe and Bauchi governor declaring he will work for anyone Buhari tells him to work for.
Atiku winning North West? Lmao biggest joke of the year.
The election will not be close. Apc will win by 4m margin minimum.

Even buhari didn't win atiku by 4 million margin. How den can tinubu? I swear u don't use ur brain.

Niklaus398:
Even buhari didn't win atiku by 4 million margin. How den can tinubu? I swear u don't use ur brain.

because PDP weren't divided into 4.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

the best analysis so far.

AbujaCitiBlog:
Obi will soundly defeat Tinubu in Lagos. Watch and see. The margin may be very wide.

we are talking about south west. South West is for Tinubu, but Atiku will win the the election during a re-run.

senatordave1:
Good,I think this is the best result.it is closest to reality.mind you tinubu may narrow the gap in ne nw or even win.same for obi and tinubu in nc...
But it won't get to a rerun.if tinubu is getting over 1 mil in ss and 400k in se,he will get 25% there.I see obi having more votes than atiku

this election will get to a rerun and it will be between Tinubu and Atiku.
The south east which is mostly for Peter obi are only 10000 registered voters. Those that will actually vote will not be More than 4 million voters.

uba1991:
this election will get to a rerun and it will be between Tinubu and Atiku.
The south east which is mostly for Peter obi are only 10000 registered voters. Those that will actually vote will not be More than 4 million voters.

He will get bloc votes there while atiku can't get bloc from anywhere. Atiku won't make it

Malaria dream prediction.

ImmaculateJOE:
You keep underestimating Obi in NW and NE.

In NW, Kaduna state alone will give Obi more votes than the figures you put up there...
In NE, Gombe, Adamawa, Taraba and Bauchi will collectively give Obi over 700k votes.
300k from Taraba, 100k from Adamawa and Bauchi, 80k from Gombe...
These states has huge Christians voters running in their millions. Obi has 60% of Christian voters in NE/NW..

stop dreaming. The north consider north first before any other thing. Iam a Christian from Kaduna but I am voting for Atiku.
I just wished Peter Obi will realise that he cannot win this election and come back to join Atiku.
Atiku is the president, come rain come shine.

Spirit04:
Lol where exactly is Obi getting 30% from in North Central?
Tinubu Will get a minimum of 60% in
Niger, Kogi and Kwara. Nassarawa, Benue and Plateau will give him at least 30%
The remainder will go to Atiku.
There's zero chance of PDP winning North East when APC will be getting 90%+ in Borno and Yobe and Bauchi governor declaring he will work for anyone Buhari tells him to work for.
Atiku winning North West? Lmao biggest joke of the year.
The election will not be close. Apc will win by 4m margin minimum.

I can swear to you that Atiku is winning the north west. You don't know the politics of the north.
Only three group of people determine the voting pattern of the north
1) the traditional leaders
2) the religious leaders
) The ex generals.
Let me tell you that it was only a call from one of the ex generals that make Tambuwal to step down for Atiku.
Mind you iam from the north west.

uba1991:
stop dreaming. The north consider north first before any other thing. Iam a Christian from Kaduna but I am voting for Atiku.
I just wished Peter Obi will realise that he cannot win this election and come back to join Atiku.
Atiku is the president, come rain come shine.

Me too a Christian based in Adamawa..
If there are 100 Northern Christian voters in the NE/NW, not less than 50 of them are voting Obi.. Do the maths and you will have the numbers votes Obi will get in the two regions.

2in3 of every northern Christian I have spoken to, always tell me that they would be voting for there brother in Christ.

ImmaculateJOE:
Me too a Christian based in Adamawa..
If there are 100 Northern Christian voters in the NE/NW, not less than 50 of them are voting Obi.. Do the maths and you will have the numbers votes Obi will get in the two regions.

2in3 of every northern Christian I have spoken to, always tell me that they would be voting for there brother in Christ.

if you are a northerner you should know that the north is far a northerner. When ever we are sitting down with my friends in the beer palour I always say I will vote for Obi, but deep inside me I know that Obi will not get one vote from my entire family.
Let me tell you one thing that will reduce Obi votes from the Christians is the issue of biafra.
We have lost many christians from Kaduna and Adamawa in the south east since ipob stated their madness.
Do you know that the military couple that were killed by ipob, the husband was a Christian from Kaduna state?

julaion:
I'm doing this to enlighten agbadorians because they have been wailing since yesterday albeit ignorantly.

Let's see the percentage by zone and see who wins according to the polls all things being equal.

Total registered voters by zone.
NW = 22.67 million
SW = 18.3 million
SS = 15.2 Million
NC = 14.1 Million
NE = 12.8 Million
SE = 11.49 Million

1. Peter Obi — (NC = 3,384,000) + (NE = 1,024,000) + (NW = 2,493,700) + (SE = 5,745,000) + (SS = 6,992,000) + (SW = 2,745,000) TOTAL = 22,383,700.

2. Tinubu — (NC = 1,269,000) + (NE = 1,920,000) + (NW = 3,400,500) + (SE = 114,900) + (SS = 1,368,000) + (SW = 4,026,000) TOTAL = 12,098,400

3. Atiku — (NC = 1,128,000) + (NE = 2,944,000) + (NW = 3,853,900) + (SE = 114,900) + ( SS = 456,000) + (SW = 732,000) TOTAL = 9,228,800.

You can see this is for 100% turnout but you can still work it out for lesser percentages of turnout.

Obi is leading with almost double margin of the closest rival so even if the South has a lower turnout, he will still be leading.

I don't see how Tinubu can overturn this since he runs away from the Media.

you are really hyping this your Obi. Nobody knows Peter Obi in north west. Iam from north west.

uba1991:
if you are a northerner you should know that the north is far a northerner. When ever we are sitting down with my friends in the beer palour I always say I will vote for Obi, but deep inside me I know that Obi will not get one vote from my entire family.
Let me tell you one thing that will reduce Obi votes from the Christians is the issue of biafra.
We have lost many christians from Kaduna and Adamawa in the south east since ipob stated their madness.
Do you know that the military couple that were killed by ipob, the husband was a Christian from Kaduna state?

Between Fulani Herdsmen and IPOB, which one has killed more Northern Christians....?
Which of them is always sacking Southern Kaduna people from their homes while killing their loved ones with reckless abandon...?

Obi's IPOB and Atiku's Fulani herdsmen.. Choose one..

oladeebo:
...op you try but it can't come out in that way.
In all ramifications Tinubu will win without rerun.
Here are why, one, this election is West against East, that is, Atiku and Obi were from the East while Tinubu is from the West, the West was always won against East.
Second, Nigeria never drops her traditional regional political partisan which is North, West, East. On that 2/3 we win .means Tinubu will win in the North and in the West. this also mean 2/3 is also in favour of Tinubu

mr man, you are talking about when fuel was 50 Naira per litre, when rice was 7 thousand per bag, when students didn't spend one year at home because of strike, when fuel was everywhere.
Do you think the people that sleep on the que looking for fuel will wake up and vote for APC?
Do you think people that are hungry now, they cannot afford one mudu (Kongo) of rice will wake up and vote for APC?
Do you think the students that were not able to graduate this year will vote for APC?
Even those that use to buy indomie fo 20 Naira, now it is 100 Naira will not vote for APC.

ImmaculateJOE:
Between Fulani Herdsmen and IPOB, which one has killed more Northern Christians....?
Which of them is always sacking Southern Kaduna people from their homes while killing their loved ones with reckless abandon...?

Obi's IPOB and Atiku's Fulani herdsmen.. Choose one..

let me tell you we have been living with fulani for a long time and we have been having crisis left right center but I can tell you that a Christian in the north will prefer Fulani than Biafra. There are many doubt about Peter Obi in the north. Gowon was the president when this biafra agenda sterted and many people believe that Peter Obi is coming for revenge.
Even when zango kataf crisis happened the northern Christians still voted for a fulani candidate.

senatordave1:
He will get bloc votes there while atiku can't get bloc from anywhere. Atiku won't make it

how many votes are the block votes of South East? On 2 states from the north west covered the whole south east. Atiku don't even need block votes to win and election, all he needs is 25% of votes in 24 states. Look at it very well, Atiku is fairly accepted in the south east and south south, north central, north east and north west is automatically for Atiku. Even in the south west.
The south east hate Tinubu with passion while the Yoruba also hate the igbos with passion.
It is only Atiku that doesn't have a strong hatred in any of the zones.

uba1991:
how many votes are the block votes of South East? On 2 states from the north west covered the whole south east. Atiku don't even need block votes to win and election, all he needs is 25% of votes in 24 states. Look at it very well, Atiku is fairly accepted in the south east and south south, north central, north east and north west is automatically for Atiku. Even in the south west.
The south east hate Tinubu with passion while the Yoruba also hate the igbos with passion.
It is only Atiku that doesn't have a strong hatred in any of the zones.

Se gave atiku bloc votes in 2019,they csn give obi 3-4 mil.atiku needs bloc votes because even tinubu will get bloc votes from sw and borno/yobe.the north will be divided and this means atiku can win north or lose north narrowly.with emergence of obi,atiku is no more accepted in se/ss.obi has divided his votes in sw and nc.if obi gets 3 mil in se and 3 mil in ss,tinubu gets 3 mil in sw and 1 mil in borno,where will atiku get his own since north will share votes? Even if he wins the north,he won't get the spread in the south

julaion:
I'm doing this to enlighten agbadorians because they have been wailing since yesterday albeit ignorantly.

Let's see the percentage by zone and see who wins according to the polls all things being equal.

Total registered voters by zone.
NW = 22.67 million
SW = 18.3 million
SS = 15.2 Million
NC = 14.1 Million
NE = 12.8 Million
SE = 11.49 Million

1. Peter Obi — (NC = 3,384,000) + (NE = 1,024,000) + (NW = 2,493,700) + (SE = 5,745,000) + (SS = 6,992,000) + (SW = 2,745,000) TOTAL = 22,383,700.

2. Tinubu — (NC = 1,269,000) + (NE = 1,920,000) + (NW = 3,400,500) + (SE = 114,900) + (SS = 1,368,000) + (SW = 4,026,000) TOTAL = 12,098,400

3. Atiku — (NC = 1,128,000) + (NE = 2,944,000) + (NW = 3,853,900) + (SE = 114,900) + ( SS = 456,000) + (SW = 732,000) TOTAL = 9,228,800.

You can see this is for 100% turnout but you can still work it out for lesser percentages of turnout.

Obi is leading with almost double margin of the closest rival so even if the South has a lower turnout, he will still be leading.

I don't see how Tinubu can overturn this since he runs away from the Media.

Bros sorry, you need to have a look at your mathematics, at 100% turnout, Tinubu already has the 15million you gave Obi from just 2 regions, what is the 30% of 22,670,000 for north west alone ? do your maths, what is the 50% of 18,000,000 alone for the south west region ? , Do the same for the north east, north central and other region and you will that Tinubu is getting over around 30million already, even Atiku has more numbers than your candidate as well, not say I support this percentages but using your own yardstick your candidate is still loosing

senatordave1:
Se gave atiku bloc votes in 2019,they csn give obi 3-4 mil.atiku needs bloc votes because even tinubu will get bloc votes from sw and borno/yobe.the north will be divided and this means atiku can win north or lose north narrowly.with emergence of obi,atiku is no more accepted in se/ss.obi has divided his votes in sw and nc.if obi gets 3 mil in se and 3 mil in ss,tinubu gets 3 mil in sw and 1 mil in borno,where will atiku get his own since north will share votes? Even if he wins the north,he won't get the spread in the south

all he need is is 25% of 5 southern states. Atiku is getting 25% in Akwa ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, Osun, Oyo, even Rivers and Cross rivers Atiku will surely get Atleast 25% .
In north west and north east Atiku is getting 12 million votes
In north central Atiku is getting Atleast 3 million votes.

Kayyy:
Bros sorry, you need to have a look at your mathematics, at 100% turnout, Tinubu already has the 15million you gave Obi from just 2 regions, what is the 30% of 22,670,000 for north west alone ? do your maths, what is the 50% of 18,000,000 alone for the south west region ? , Do the same for the north east, north central and other region and you will that Tinubu is getting over around 30million already, even Atiku has more numbers than your candidate as well, not say I support this percentages but using your own yardstick your candidate is still loosing

Iam for Atiku and with that postulation, you should know that Atiku is winning comfortably.

uba1991:
you are really hyping this your Obi. Nobody knows Peter Obi in north west. Iam from north west.

I did my nysc in the north last year,majority of my Hausa and Fulani friends are all voting for obi

julaion:
I did my nysc in the north last year,majority of my Hausa and Fulani friends are all voting for obi

hahahaaaa �, you are talking with a northerner that has participated in politics fo more than 20 years.

uba1991:
all he need is is 25% of 5 southern states. Atiku is getting 25% in Akwa ibom, Bayelsa, Edo, Osun, Oyo, even Rivers and Cross rivers Atiku will surely get Atleast 25% .
In north west and north east Atiku is getting 12 million votes
In north central Atiku is getting Atleast 3 million votes.

You lie.buhari got 8 million in ne/nw.highest atiku can get is 5 mil.buhari got 2.4 mil in nc.as it stands,atiku will lose to tinubu and obi in nc since obi is taking his votes.highest he will get is 1.2 mil.
Atiku will win aks and delta narrowly.he will get 25% in bayelsa,osun and crs.but he won't get it in rivers,Edo,Oyo.he won't make it in borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara.he won't get the spread.

AbujaCitiBlog:
Obi will soundly defeat Tinubu in Lagos. Watch and see. The margin may be very wide.

Dey play

senatordave1:
You lie.buhari got 8 million in ne/nw.highest atiku can get is 5 mil.buhari got 2.4 mil in nc.as it stands,atiku will lose to tinubu and obi in nc since obi is taking his votes.highest he will get is 1.2 mil.
Atiku will win aks and delta narrowly.he will get 25% in bayelsa,osun and crs.but he won't get it in rivers,Edo,Oyo.he won't make it in borno,yobe,zamfara,kwara.he won't get the spread.

Atiku is winning the whole 19 northern states. Atiku only need 25% from 5 southern states. And if Atiku and Tinubu go for re-run Atiku will win. Therefore, Atiku is already the incoming president.

Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

I agree with you just that I feel obi would get more than 5% in the north West 7.5% to 10 percent

North east I expect obi to do well at least 15% minimum based on Christians are 35% of north east minimum

Obi won't get less than 90% in the south east

Obi won't get less 60% in the south south


A rerun between Tinubu and obi ... Tinubu might win

A rerun between obi and Atiku obi would win

A rerun between Atiku and Tinubu Atiku would win before 12 noon

uba1991:
Atiku is winning the whole 19 northern states. Atiku only need 25% from 5 southern states. And if Atiku and Tinubu go for re-run Atiku will win. Therefore, Atiku is already the incoming president.

Are you ok at all? Buhari never won the whole 19 northern states how will atiku win? Always reason with common sense.highest atiku will win is 9 northern states.he won't get 25% in 4 northern states.tinubu is the next gcfr

OP, you sincerely underrated Asiwaju sagacity and acceptance.

Tinubu will ein with wider mergin.

senatordave1:
Are you ok at all? Buhari never won the whole 19 northern states how will atiku win? Always reason with common sense.highest atiku will win is 9 northern states.he won't get 25% in 4 northern states.tinubu is the next gcfr

so you think a reasonable human being will sleep on the que with all this cold because he is looking for fuel will wake up to go and vote for APC?
Some students were supposed to graduate last year but they have to extend their program to next year and they will still go and vote for APC?
No reasonable human being will buy one mudu (Kongo) of rice 2000 and still vote for APC.
People are buying fuel 500 naira per litre and they will still vote for APC?
Look at the cooking gas,do you know how much is 1 kg?
Majority of students that eat indomie were buying indomie at 20 Naira but today they have to buy it at 150 naira, will those students still vote for APC?
Majority of Christians like me that voted for APC in 2015 and 2019 will not vote for APC in 2023.