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2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. - Politics (4) - Nairaland

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Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by senatordave1(m): 11:17am On Jan 13, 2023
uba1991:
so you think a reasonable human being will sleep on the que with all this cold because he is looking for fuel will wake up to go and vote for APC?
Some students were supposed to graduate last year but they have to extend their program to next year and they will still go and vote for APC?
No reasonable human being will buy one mudu (Kongo) of rice 2000 and still vote for APC.
People are buying fuel 500 naira per litre and they will still vote for APC?
Look at the cooking gas,do you know how much is 1 kg?
Majority of students that eat indomie were buying indomie at 20 Naira but today they have to buy it at 150 naira, will those students still vote for APC?
Majority of Christians like me that voted for APC in 2015 and 2019 will not vote for APC in 2023.

They will rather vote obi than atiku.by the way,prices of goods has always increased.it is not peculiar to apc.check from 1999
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 11:27am On Jan 13, 2023
senatordave1:


They will rather vote obi than atiku.by the way,prices of goods has always increased.it is not peculiar to apc.check from 1999
increase by 400%? Mr man go listen to people in the market, filling stations, and motor parks. Infact no reasonable human being will consider voting for APC with the way the country is.
Mind you, I was a die hard supporter of APC but for now me and millions of my people say bye bye to APC.
Only a foolish religious fanatic will vote for APC.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Nobody: 11:36am On Jan 13, 2023
uba1991:
I can swear to you that Atiku is winning the north west. You don't know the politics of the north.
Only three group of people determine the voting pattern of the north
1) the traditional leaders
2) the religious leaders
) The ex generals.
Let me tell you that it was only a call from one of the ex generals that make Tambuwal to step down for Atiku.
Mind you iam from the north west.
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 1:24pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history
I was thinking people like you are supposed to learn from the Osun election but since you cannot reason rationally then I am sorry I can't help you.

1 Like

Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Nobody: 1:41pm On Jan 13, 2023
uba1991:
I was thinking people like you are supposed to learn from the Osun election but since you cannot reason rationally then I am sorry I can't help you.
lol I'm not a supporter of APC. If Wike had won PDP primaries I wouldn't even be talking about APC at all. Osun election showed that APC have largely retained its base. They couldn't even win in 2018, they had to reschedule and yet only won by a few votes even when they were fully united. If Aregbesola didn't fight with the governor they would've maybe replicated the same results. I don't know why you people like referencing Osun but ignore Ekiti
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 1:46pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history
Gone are the days that Governors decide who to be voted for.
The real voters are the people that spend 48 hours queuing for fuel
The real voters are the people that cannot be able to afford one mudu (Kongo) of rice
The real voters are the students who wasted a whole year in their carrier
The real voters are the students who use to buy indomie 20 Naira but today they are buying at 150.
The real voters are those people that buy fuel at 500 naira per litre.
Can a reasonable person que for 48 hours looking for fuel then wake up and go to vote for APC?
Can the students who were forced to extend their program by almost 2 years go to vote APC?
Can a reasonable students buy one indomie fo 200 naira then go to vote APC? What the cooking gas, what of the travellers on our high ways that had to write their will before embarking on journey.
Even Katsina where Buhari come from will regret voting for APC.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 1:50pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol I'm not a supporter of APC. If Wike had won PDP primaries I wouldn't even be talking about APC at all. Osun election showed that APC have largely retained its base. They couldn't even win in 2018, they had to reschedule and yet only won by a few votes even when they were fully united. If Aregbesola didn't fight with the governor they would've maybe replicated the same results. I don't know why you people like referencing Osun but ignore Ekiti
we are not talking about Ekiti because Tinubu is not from Ekiti.
Even Atiku didn't campaign for the PDP candidate in Ekiti.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 1:54pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol put money. There's no conspiracy anywhere. it's a wish not a reality.

There's a supremacy battle going on with regards to whom will take the presidency in 2031. Ganduje, Shekarau, Kwankwaso all want to show who is who in Kano. Wamako and Tambuwal involved in the same in Sokoto. El Rufai wants to be president in 2031 Atiku winning will first of all destroy his relevance and reputation since he lost in his own state and how will he even compete with Tambuwal and Shekarau if he cross? Same in Yobe. Buni wants to contest. Bala Muhammad also want to contest. Go and check their age and add 8 years to it you will see the game plan.
They want both Atiku and Buhari gone at the same time so that they can shine. After Tinubu there will be no question if the presidency should go North or south. That was why they were adamant during the primaries. Even Buhari has seen the Northern governors game after the Kano rally that's why he suddenly decided to join Tinubu campaign so that Northern governors don't humiliate him again as they did in the primaries. Atiku sef has seen the reality that's why he's no longer wasting money on campaigns. Look at the tone of people like Dino and Reno you will see that reality has set in. This election will be the most one sided election in Nigerian history
the only people that will vote for APC are the foolish religious fanatics. Therefore, the number of votes Tinubu will get will determine the number of fools we have in this country.

1 Like

Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by tctrills: 1:58pm On Jan 13, 2023
lagbaja:



Tinubu is more likely to win a rerun. Most Obi voters would rather not vote than vote any of the 2 candidates. Kwakwanso is more likely to deliver his voters over to Tinubu than to Atiku. North Central will more likely support Tinubu than Atiku because of the Fulani factor
If Tinubu does not win outright, it is over for him.
Your analysis is very wrong.
PDP is actually very strong in the NC, SS and SE. If Obi was not on the ballot, all LP votes would go to PDP. With the exception of Kwara and Maybe Kogi, Atiku would clear the NC in any rerun.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by GoodCane: 2:01pm On Jan 13, 2023
Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

Are this daft or what?

Bros, ethnicity and tribalism will play a very big role in this election. And over 90% christians in the North are voting massively for peter. SS and SE votes goes to PO. Christians in SW regions over 99% of them are voting for peter Obi. So how did Tinubu arrived at 11million votes, when Atiku and kwankwaso are there to gets the votes of the north?
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Nobody: 2:04pm On Jan 13, 2023
uba1991:
the only people that will vote for APC are the foolish religious fanatics. Therefore, the number of votes Tinubu will get will determine the number of fools we have in this country.
lol who cares what you think? Election is next month. We'll see. You are claiming northerner now but I'm 100% sure you will be calling northerners slaves and cow next month. You obviously don't know what money is or how it works. When indomie was ₦20 people still couldn't afford it which is why you hear people saying they slept with girls for a plate of indomie. People who could eat the indomie or afford fuel when it was ₦20 can still afford it today. You are just not in that class. If you like don't go and work to improve your social standing in the society be dreaming up things that are 100% unrealistic. You think it concerns anyone how heartbroken you are next month after elections? Life is a personal race
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by tctrills: 2:18pm On Jan 13, 2023
lagbaja:



Tinubu is more likely to win a rerun. Most Obi voters would rather not vote than vote any of the 2 candidates. Kwakwanso is more likely to deliver his voters over to Tinubu than to Atiku. North Central will more likely support Tinubu than Atiku because of the Fulani factor
Who is the average Kwankwaso voter? These are the vote for a northern Muslim no matter what. The average Kwankwaso voter would never vote for a none northern and if you think the SE and the SS would sit out the rerun then you need to wake up. Yes those voting in the rerun wouldn't be as much as in the first poll but that would be the case in all 36 states.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by sunray(m): 2:21pm On Jan 13, 2023
Obi cannot score 20% of total valid votes in Lagos. And he will not score 5% in other South West states. Inec will not count shops with humans.

silibaba:
obi will shock tunubu in Lagos.

Fasten your seat belt.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 2:28pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol who cares what you think? Election is next month. We'll see. You are claiming northerner now but I'm 100% sure you will be calling northerners slaves and cow next month. You obviously don't know what money is or how it works. When indomie was ₦20 people still couldn't afford it which is why you hear people saying they slept with girls for a plate of indomie. People who could eat the indomie or afford fuel when it was ₦20 can still afford it today. You are just not in that class. If you like don't go and work to improve your social standing in the society be dreaming up things that are 100% unrealistic. You think it concerns anyone how heartbroken you are next month after elections? Life is a personal race
I don't always like to reply fools. Why should I deny my tribe or region. If you care to know I am from Kaduna state from Kaura local government to specific.
I don't know how old are you but I will tell you that I have been in this politics for more than 20 years. Go back and check my history, I was a die hard supporter of APC. But considering the 133 million Nigerians in poverty and the foolish decision of Tinubu going for same faith ticket, I decided to withdraw my support for APC.
You think money is everything abi? Go and ask GEJ. With the amount of money he spent the north still show him shege.
I know that Tinubu is stealing 51 billions every month from Lagos state treasury thinking he will use it to buy votes.
The north is not for sale.
From 1999 to date,all those that won the presidential election were very poor.
Obj had no money
GEJ had no money
Buhari had no money.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by uba1991: 2:31pm On Jan 13, 2023
Spirit04:
lol I'm not a supporter of APC. If Wike had won PDP primaries I wouldn't even be talking about APC at all. Osun election showed that APC have largely retained its base. They couldn't even win in 2018, they had to reschedule and yet only won by a few votes even when they were fully united. If Aregbesola didn't fight with the governor they would've maybe replicated the same results. I don't know why you people like referencing Osun but ignore Ekiti
so for your mind, someone like Wike should be the president of this country? No Nigeria president can be so foolish and self-centred like Wike.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Suunnn(f): 2:45pm On Jan 13, 2023
Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys
Obi for sure
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Obalacam(m): 2:50pm On Jan 13, 2023
Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.

Thanks for reading guys
Do you want to tell me your analysis is better than Anap and Bantupage polls that predicted clear victory for Peter Obi?
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by mandarin: 4:00pm On Jan 13, 2023
JoeNL22:


The Muslim ticket will play a huge role.

The kkk states will be divided by 3 people(Tinubu, Atiku, RMK) instead of 1 person(Buhari).

Obi will cancel many votes from Tinubu in the ss & se with his(obi) sw votes

Atiku will win NE, Tinubu will win NW.

A divided core north can't beat a united SE & SS.

ATIKU OR RMK must step down for Tinubu. If not. Tinubu can't win the elections.

In the SW, the elections is between obi & Tinubu.

In the SE & SS Its between obi & Atiku.

In the NC, Its between obi, Atiku & Tinubu

In the core north ( Tinubu, Atiku, kwankwanso and Obi[Muslim ticket | Christians will definitely do protest votes and ensure they are not marginalised] )

No reruns.



The election in the Southwest is not between Tinubu and Obi. Its Tinubu home turf.
Please don't overrate Obi in the Southwest. You can only expect good performance from him in Lagos which you can't be sure will be up to 25% because Atiku will also receive anti Tinubu votes too especially among Northern communities. I do beleive the Eastern communities will largely vote Obi in Lagos but with all the votes split across major candidates, its not certain Obi can get 20% in Lagos.
Elsewhere in the Southwest will be worse, the farther from Lagos the worse the outcome for Peter Obi because ethnicity will play a key role both in the Southwest and Southeast and religion will play key role in Northwest and Northeast. The Middle Belt and South South are open.
It's erroneous to think religion will play a key role in politics in among Yoruba, it has not and won't.
The entire Christians I the north won't vote Obi as many of them are either loyal to their leaders, political parties and some will be swayed by ethnicity and religion.
I think APC will win about 4 out of 7 states in North Central and Atiku and Obi sharing large numbers in 3.
Please note that when the election is called and if APC wins 5 states in NC and do 30% - 40% in NW and NE. They have won otherwise it will go to a run off because the formular is to deny Atiku 25% across 24 states and so far its still successful. Obi has no winning formula to achieving 25% across 24 states at least for now.

1 Like

Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by mandarin: 4:07pm On Jan 13, 2023
Trollronaldo:
Below is the amount of registered voters by regions.
I am going to make this analysis based on 40% voters turnout in every region, it's not certain but it's enough to give us an insight to as to what will happen in February.

Based on 40% voters turnout, here is the figure from each region

1. NW 8,902,224
2. SW 7,183,506
3. NC 6, 145, 492
4. SS 5, 776, 285
5. NE 5,016,971
6. SE 4,363,042


Analysis based on regions based on my predictions are as follows

Northwest
1. Atiku 35% 3,115,778
2. TINUBU 30% 2,670,667
3. Kwankwaso 25% 2,225,556
4. Obi 5% 445,111

SouthWest
1. Tinubu 50% 3,591,753
2. Obi 25% 1,7996,876
3. Atiku 15% 1,077,526
4. Kwankwaso 2% 143,670

Southsouth
1. Obi 45% 2,599,328
2. Atiku 30% 1,732,885
3. Tinubu 20% 1,155,257
4. Kwankwaso 2% 115,525

Northcentral
1. Atiku 30% 1,843,647
2. Obi 30% 1,843,647
3. Tinubu 30% 1,843,647
4. Kwankwaso 10% 614,549

Northeast
Atiku 40% 2,006,788
Tinubu 30% 1,505,091
Kwankwaso 15% 752,545
Obi 10% 501,697

Southeast
Obi 70% 3,054,129
Atiku 15% 654,456
Tinubu 10% 436,304
Kwankwaso 1% 43,630


TOTAL
Tinubu : 11,202, 719
Atiku: 10,431,080
Obi: 10,239,788
Kwankwaso: 3,895,475


I see Tinubu getting the most votes, however, this is not certain. Tinubu will get the most votes but won't get 25% required coverage. Tinubu will go into a rerun with Atiku.
Atiku will beat Tinubu in the rerun by winning SE and SS. However, it's still too close to call, Tinubu and Atiku may lose the momentum to Obi.


Thanks for reading guys

If you increase Tinubu performance to 70% in Southwest and 25% in South South( a Conservative estimate) then the figure if follow this your trajectory can be more realistic.
Another point is that turn out average is what you stated, I do expect turn out to be up to 45%- 52%. Turn out in SS and NC may be lower compared to other regions where there are strong home candidates
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by mandarin: 4:28pm On Jan 13, 2023
Obalacam:

Do you want to tell me your analysis is better than Anap and Bantupage polls that predicted clear victory for Peterk Obi?

Those were opinion polls. Their sampling method may invalidate their predictions which had happened even in the US in recent elections.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by JoeNL22(m): 5:51pm On Jan 13, 2023
mandarin:


The election in the Southwest is not between Tinubu and Obi. Its Tinubu home turf.
Please don't overrate Obi in the Southwest. You can only expect good performance from him in Lagos which you can't be sure will be up to 25% because Atiku will also receive anti Tinubu votes too especially among Northern communities. I do beleive the Eastern communities will largely vote Obi in Lagos but with all the votes split across major candidates, its not certain Obi can get 20% in Lagos.
Elsewhere in the Southwest will be worse, the farther from Lagos the worse the outcome for Peter Obi because ethnicity will play a key role both in the Southwest and Southeast and religion will play key role in Northwest and Northeast. The Middle Belt and South South are open.
It's erroneous to think religion will play a key role in politics in among Yoruba, it has not and won't.
The entire Christians I the north won't vote Obi as many of them are either loyal to their leaders, political parties and some will be swayed by ethnicity and religion.
I think APC will win about 4 out of 7 states in North Central and Atiku and Obi sharing large numbers in 3.
Please note that when the election is called and if APC wins 5 states in NC and do 30% - 40% in NW and NE. They have won otherwise it will go to a run off because the formular is to deny Atiku 25% across 24 states and so far its still successful. Obi has no winning formula to achieving 25% across 24 states at least for now.
Okay.
If obi can't get 25% in Lagos. Tinubu can't get 25% from the SS & SE combined.
Obi will get 25% in the core north and sweep Tinubu under the carpet in the southeast, let them Be deceiving themselves with their paid crowds or cows
If Atiku win the NE. and Tinubu wins the NORTHWEST.
How does Tinubu want to win the elections?
A divided core north can't beat a combined SS AND SE.
Tinubu needs to win both Northeast and NW. Which is impossible.
1 person got 12 million votes(buhari)
Now 3 people are sharing the same 12 million = 4 million. The NW is 22 million, if Tinubu gets 40% = 8.8 million, Obi just needs the 80% of 11 million = 8.8 million. So you see Tinubu's issue?. 40% from the Nw can't be enough to win obi. Like I have said on previous threads, Atiku or kwankwanso must step down for Tinubu to win. The votes that obi will get in SW. OBI will use it to cancel Tinubu's votes in the southeast. But Tinubu can't use his SE votes to cancel obi in the southwest. The SS Have not forgotten what Tinubu did to their son in 2015, hence if Tinubu see 10% in SS. Baba do well. The NC is to close. The three candidates will get 25% expect kwankwanso. The muslim ticket will cause problems, Tinubu sidelined 50 million Christians in the north. You think they are sleeping?. You think the Christians in the north has not seen what is happening in South Kaduna?. Religion is enshrined in our society, hence it will be a fallacy to think it will not affect our elections.
My friends called me on sunday last week, they are yoruba Christians and youths, the first question they asked me is if am voting OBI. I was shocked. They will be definitely be more people like them. Don't allow them to o deceive you with this rubbish structure. Nigerians are buying fuel at 400, including APC members. Therefore I don't see APC coming back 2023.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by Ikpaitid: 7:18pm On Jan 13, 2023
Foolish man's forecast, where Peter Obi want get 10 million votes from?
Sometimes I wonder if some people think Nigerians are stupid, do you really think an Igbo man can get 10 million votes in Nigeria?
Not in this Nigeria.
Re: 2023 Election, My Prediction Based On Facts And Reality. by JoeNL22(m): 7:20pm On Jan 13, 2023
uba1991:
I don't always like to reply fools. Why should I deny my tribe or region. If you care to know I am from Kaduna state from Kaura local government to specific.
I don't know how old are you but I will tell you that I have been in this politics for more than 20 years. Go back and check my history, I was a die hard supporter of APC. But considering the 133 million Nigerians in poverty and the foolish decision of Tinubu going for same faith ticket, I decided to withdraw my support for APC.
You think money is everything abi? Go and ask GEJ. With the amount of money he spent the north still show him shege.
I know that Tinubu is stealing 51 billions every month from Lagos state treasury thinking he will use it to buy votes.
The north is not for sale.
From 1999 to date,all those that won the presidential election were very poor.
Obj had no money
GEJ had no money
Buhari had no money.
God bless you sir
You are truly blessed.

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