₦airaland Forum

blowjohn:
South East done come out much to vote. And with the insecurity there e go drop low

Well, statistics shows that southwest has more voters apathy than SouthEast. Please kindly refer to past election figure.

Secondly, there's no going to be voters apathy in southeast when their son is on the ballot and he's popular. They will vote, same way they did for GEJ

dat9jaguy:
OK, so the only remaining is to wait and see how it plays out.

exactly

BluntTheApostle:
In what states can Obi get 25%? Can he get 25% of votes in 24 states?

6 South South states, 5 south east states, 6 north central states = 17 states.


That is provided he gets 25% in all the North Central states.


In southwest, supposing he gets 25% in all the five States, that is 22 states. He would still need 3 more states to win, irrespective of his total votes.


Every region is thus very important, and should not be overlooked.

Obi can get 25% in all southern states. 17

Obi can get 25% in Benue, plateau, Abuja, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna and Taraba.

Whether or not he does, where can Tinubu get 25%?

FatherOfJesus:
Well, statistics shows that southwest has more voters apathy than SouthEast. Please kindly refer to past election figure.

Secondly, there's no going to be voters apathy in southeast when their son is on the ballot and he's popular. They will vote, same way they did for GEJ

But they already said there will be no election there. Well I just hope for the best

He has never indicated that he wants to be 1st, 2nd or 3rd in Kano. Atiku, kwankwaso, and Tinubu in that order.
Kwankwaso and Atiku are doing the lord's work. No block votes for anybody in kano.
Kano votes must be shared...it is what it is!

FatherOfJesus:
If you say Obi cannot win Kaduna, I will agree but I would bet that he will win get 25% there.

I will also bet that Obi will win Benue, plateau, Abuja and maybe (not sure) Nasarawa state.

I can also bet that Obi will get 25% in Taraba

He will do well in benue and plateau but not win there. In abuja, he will do well in the urban areas. If thats enough to win it for him, time will tell. Taraba is diverse and vast and very rural. It is also one of the bastions of electoral malcpratices in nigeria. It also has a strong catholic presence, which might help obi, coupled with the TY danjuma factor. Getting 25% is no mean feat.

Svoboda:
He will do well in benue and plateau but not win there. In abuja, he will do well in the urban areas. If thats enough to win it for him, time will tell. Taraba is diverse and vast and very rural. It is also one of the bastions of electoral malcpratices in nigeria. It also has a strong catholic presence, which might help obi, coupled with the TY danjuma factor. Getting 25% is no mean feat.

Have you ever been to Benue and Plateau?
If yes, tell me about those places

blowjohn:
But they already said there will be no election there. Well I just hope for the best

they say that every time

Maybe 4th in kano

Kyase:
The Hausa's/Fulanis are not barbaric like iPob and their gangs that stone people when they come for campaign, they will welcome you as visitor but will vote differently on election day

so na ipob stoned atiku in oyo state that u were happy all about on nairaland.. i talk am you no get sense, no urchin get sense but we dey pray for you to recover your sense soon

FatherOfJesus:
Have you ever been to Benue and Plateau?
If yes, tell me about those places

Ive only been to benue. But both states are largely rural even if christian and thats telling, considering that obi rides on urban and youth frenzy .

Svoboda:
Ive only been to benue. But both states are largely rural even if christian and thats telling, considering that obi rides on urban and youth frenzy .

Lol, then you don't know Benue.
Another wrong assertion is that Obi thrives on urban frenzy, if that's true then why did he beat Tinubu and Atiku in a rural poll conducted by nextier in Benue.


I can bet my last card that Obi will win Benue, not just win, the margin will be wide. I have been to Benue during this election. Nobody in the rural parrs of Benue will for a Fulani man and a party that supported Fulani herdsmen to kill them..

The election In benue, Tinubu is not popular, Atiku would have had a chance if Fulani herdsmen wasn't a thing. They will never vote a Fulani again in that state after what their eyes have seen from herdsmen.

Same applies to central and southern Taraba, Plateau and Nasarawa.

FatherOfJesus:
Lol, then you don't know Benue.
Another wrong assertion is that Obi thrives on urban frenzy, if that's true then why did he beat Tinubu and Atiku in a rural poll conducted by nextier in Benue.


I can bet my last card that Obi will win Benue, not just win, the margin will be wide. I have been to Benue during this election. Nobody in the rural parrs of Benue will for a Fulani man and a party that supported Fulani herdsmen to kill them..

The election In benue, Tinubu is not popular, Atiku would have had a chance if Fulani herdsmen wasn't a thing. They will never vote a Fulani again in that state after what their eyes have seen from herdsmen.

Same applies to central and southern Taraba, Plateau and Nasarawa.

Nextier poll now determines who wins..

Election is less than 5 weeks.. I'll be happy if he wins benue but...election outcomes go beyond feelings

Svoboda:
Nextier poll now determines who wins..

Election is less than 5 weeks.. I'll be happy if he wins benue but...election outcomes go beyond feelings

It doesn't, it gives a valid insight as to whom the people prefer.
Obi didn't just win the rural community poll in Benue, he won by a very large margin of about 70%, it's a pointer to the fact that you don't know what you are talking about

FatherOfJesus:
I am obedient and a very realistic person. Obi cannot get majority votes in Kano.
See, the best Obi can do in kano is 10%. I'm being realistic, 10% in Kano is not bad at all considering that he will get majority votes in SS and SE and probably NC and become 2nd in SW. Obi will get more votes on SW than NW
10% in NW will win him thr election or push him to the rerun.

Obi will what? Dude is not winning any region stop decieving yourself. Not even his own sad yeast, both sad yeast and SS are for Atiku, obi will come second in both region, third in SW, third in NC and 4th in North. If una like make una nor wake up.

FatherOfJesus:
It doesn't, it gives a valid insight as to whom the people prefer.
Obi didn't just win the rural community poll in Benue, he won by a very large margin of about 70%, it's a pointer to the fact that you don't know what you are talking about

Haha So you actually believe that naked 70% exaggeration? Do you really really believe we have more independent minded voters than otherwise in the rurals? 25 February is close by.

Svoboda:
Haha So you actually believe that naked 70% exaggeration? Do you really really believe we have more independent minded voters than otherwise in the rurals? 25 February is close by.

Like I said, I am confident that Obi will win Benue.
We have bet on that if you are also confident

Kapeter:
Obi will what? Dude is not winning any region stop decieving yourself. Not even his own sad yeast, both sad yeast and SS are for Atiku, obi will come second in both region, third in SW, third in NC and 4th in North. If una like make una nor wake up.

You want ot bet?

FatherOfJesus:
Obi can get 25% in all southern states. 17

Obi can get 25% in Benue, plateau, Abuja, Nasarawa, Kogi, Kaduna and Taraba.

Whether or not he does, where can Tinubu get 25%?

Tinubu can get 25% in every state where Obi can get 25% (aside some SE states).

FatherOfJesus:
i know about the 25% acceptance.
And yes, he can. He will get 25% in Kaduna, Taraba, Nasarawa, plateau, Abuja, Kogi, benue, Niger.

Include Adamawa

BluntTheApostle:
Tinubu can get 25% in every state where Obi can get 25% (aside some SE states).

Ok. February 25 will soon be here.

BluntTheApostle:
Tinubu can get 25% in every state where Obi can get 25% (aside some SE states).

Tinubu cannot get 25% from any SS state. Know this and know peace.
Even Benue, Taraba, he cannot get it

FatherOfJesus:
Obi's path to presidency should not include Kano at all for obvious reasons. Irrespective of the turnout in the rally, Obi will still be 4th in Kano.

Kwankwaso will win the state, while Atiku will be 2nd, with Tinubu as 3rd. I do not even think Obi can get 25% in Kano. However, Kano for us, should be a place to get more figures and not a place to get 25%.

If Obi can do well and get 10-15% in kano, he would have done so well. That's enough for me. Kano is not in the equation, it's a mission impossible. Not jusy kano, all NW states.
Obi should just fight for 10% in NW, that will be good enough to win the election.
Getting 10% in Northwest, guarantees him about 1m votes in that region which is not bad in a region where you are not accepted. Knowing fully well that others will be splitted almost evenly between kwankwaso, Tinubu and Atiku. Obi can then finish the job in SS,, NC and SE and then become 2nd in SW.

4th, maybe; but with more than 10% of total votes cast. Same with other NW states. NC & SS (neutral zones) are the battleground. 2023 will be the basis of future permutations; we haven't seen its kind yet. It won't be an easy ride for anyone, as some are thinking. Some candidates will lock horns (head-to-head) across differrent zones, except SE.

AcetylC:
4th, maybe; but with more than 10% of total votes cast. Same with other NW states. NC & SS (neutral zones) are the battleground. 2023 will be the basis of future permutations; we haven't seen its kind yet. It won't be an easy ride for anyone, as some are thinking. Some candidates will lock horns (head-to-head) across differrent zones, except SE.

Did you study biochemistry?

FatherOfJesus:
Tinubu cannot get 25% from any SS state. Know this and know peace.
Even Benue, Taraba, he cannot get it

Tinubu will get 25% in Cross River.

BluntTheApostle:
Tinubu will get 25% in Cross River.

You want to bet?

He doesn't need to win kano...kano votes will be seriously split,whoever wins there will win by small margin