₦airaland Forum

He can't even win on 7th ballot

Sannisege:
Even if you conduct the election 10 times, Obi cannot win

FarahAideed:
He can't even win on 7th ballot

Wishful thinkers!

Obi lule

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

Obi will likely have 25% in Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Kano

obailala:
Wishful thinkers!

I am one of the most realistic thinkers on earth , I never do fantasies

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

Gombe
Adamawa
Bauchi

Waterysperm:
Obi will get that with ease. He will win the South-south and East which is 11 states. He will get 25% in the 6 Western States. I repeat he will get 25% in all the Southwest states and that brings it up to 17 states. Now add the following states: Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. You may be surprised I added Niger and Kwara. Tinubu will win Kwara but Obi will get 25%. Anybody can bet 50k on this with me. As for Niger state, the Christians there are solidly behind him. I am so sure of what I am saying. Most people don't know that there are about 35% to 40% Christians in Niger state. That is why the Christians there have vowed that any political party that failed to have a Christian deputy will lose the next governorship election. Now add the 17 states of the South and 6 states of the North Central and it will give you 23 states. Now add Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna. That is a total of 27 states.
Bookmark this post for future reference. Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

I am willing to take you up on the bet because I am certain PDP will get more votes than LP in Kwara.

Baba, this space is for intelligent people to share views and ideas.
Go and queue at the ATM to collect your remaining 1k balance to soak gari.
Leave this space for people with high IQ.

RenaissanceGuy:
I don't think Obi will win. The election is strictly between Tinubu and Atiku. Sadly.

BeardedmeatR:
Obi can pull 25% in Kano and Gombe states. He is just one step closer to victory. He will also most likely score the highest votes cast

From the way things are going now, I won't be surprised if Obi gets up to 70% in Kano. Just wait until Buhari endorses him in two weeks' time.
Obidients and daydreaming...

FarahAideed:
He can't even win on 7th ballot

This guy, are you not confused? You use your princeoflagos moniker to praise and campaign for Obi 24/7 and then use this one to tell us he can't win, and also to support the naira redesign, but use this one to criticise the redesign. What's the color of your problem??

Waterysperm:
Kogi, Kwara, Niger and Gombe will give him 25%. I will stake 50k with anyone that disagrees with my opinion.

Obi can not win this election. Stop dreaming. You are giving yourself false hope

RenaissanceGuy:
This guy, are you not confused? You use your princeoflagos moniker to praise and campaign for Obi 23/7, and then use this one to tell us he can't win. Whats the color of your problem??

stop this nonsense already

PrinceOfLagos:
stop this nonsense already

Are you denying the fact??

obailala:
From current projections, if OBI doesn't win on first ballot, it's almost certainly game-over!

The key reason OBI has a high chance today is because the votes in the north are shared by the other 3 top contenders. If there's a run-off, northern votes would no longer be shared.

If the run-off is between OBI and Tinubu, you'd agree with me that whilst the majority of the northern PDP voters may not necessarily like Tinubu, most would gravitate towards a Tinubu over an OBI (largely due to tribal / religious sentiments).

Similarly, if the run-off is between OBI and Atiku, with the distasteful intertribal aggression between the SE and SW, would OBI really be able to inherit Tinubu's south western votes? Would current APC supporters in the SW pick an OBI over an Atiku in a run-off?

However the case goes, I don't think a run-off will favour OBI. Whilst its important that OBI consolidates his votes in his strongholds, it's also imperative that he wins the election on first ballot.

Atiku is most favoured to win a run off with either APC or LP

obailala:
I'm not really sure of the mix in Gombe, but 25% from Kano?

LP votes from Kano would most likely be ethnic; i.e. from Igbos living in Kano. Can this really make up to 25% of votes in Kano?

There are over 1.5 million Igbos in Kano state alone. And, most northern Christians, south and north central ethnicities in Kano, including Yorubas, are supporting Peter Obi.

00FFT00:
There are over 1.5 million Igbos in Kano state alone. And, most northern Christians, south and north central ethnicities in Kano, including Yorubas, are supporting Peter Obi.

Igbos alone 1.5 million? How many people do we then have in the entire state? That number get as e be!

obailala:
Igbos alone 1.5 million? How many people do we then have in the entire state? That number get as e be!

Those of us who grew up in Kano know the demographics. The figure is correct.

Obi will win on first ballot.

lovewins:
I really do think Obi should revisit the South East and the South South states again. The strategy shouldn't just be getting 25% in 24 states (which isn't very likely) it should also include ensuring the opposition do not get the required 25% in states that should traditionally be Obi's stronghold.

It will be disappointing if any of Atiku gets 25% in any of the south eastern states. Efforts should also be intensified to ensure Obi gains more ground in the south especially in states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Even if Obi doesn't win ok first ballot, efforts should be made to ensure he makes second ballot (only the top 2 candidates will qualify). The sheer possiblity of Peter Obi making it to the last round will further inspire more people to come out enmass to vote. It will make people realize their votes count.

I believe Obi should make 25% in Ogun and Nasarawa and Taraba. Ogun has major cities like Abeokuta, Ota, Ijebu with a significant young and literate voting population who should swing Obi. Major Abuja folks living in Nasarawa with the significant Christian population should be enough to get him 25%. Taraba is majority Christian, Obi should also hit 25% here.

I worry more about the South East and South South. Of course he will get the 25% here, but should the opposition gain significant inroad here, it's game over.

This comment here is Gold. Pure Gold.

I hope Obi or any of his top aides see this.

This is Key.

lovewins:
Obi won't get 25% in Kano. Just not possible.

Kano had over 2.1 million total vote in 2015, this year should be significantly more. But let's assume 2 million people vote, 25% will be 500k votes for Obi. Just do not see that happening. We should focus on states where this is possible like Kaduna, Kebbi, Taraba etc.

Lolz.. so you believe those 1.9-2.1 million votes from Kano in 2015 and 2019 are correct.

Figures that came partly from Incidence Forms? Are you aware that about 60%(some say almsot 70%) of Incidence Forms in 2015 was used in the north.

This year will be less.

Only Lagos may be higher.

Waterysperm:
I can stake 70k for Ogun state, just stake 50k ok. Obi will get 25% in Ogun state.

To get 25%, he must win at least 1 local government.
Tell us the Local Government Peter Obi will win in Ogun state.

nameo:
Lolz.. so you believe those 1.9-2.1 million votes from Kano in 2015 and 2019 are correct.

Figures that came partly from Incidence Forms? Are you aware that about 60%(some say almsot 70%) of Incidence Forms in 2015 was used in the north.

This year will be less.

Only Lagos may be higher.

Oga,even with bvas north recorded higher turnout than south.ekiti the smallest in sw recorded more votes a whole anambra

senatordave1:
Oga,even with bvas north recorded higher turnout than south.ekiti the smallest in sw recorded more votes a whole anambra

You don go change your moniker from Garfield abi. Continue

Waterysperm:
Obi will get that with ease. He will win the South-south and East which is 11 states. He will get 25% in the 6 Western States. I repeat he will get 25% in all the Southwest states and that brings it up to 17 states. Now add the following states: Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa, Kogi, Niger and Kwara. You may be surprised I added Niger and Kwara. Tinubu will win Kwara but Obi will get 25%. Anybody can bet 50k on this with me. As for Niger state, the Christians there are solidly behind him. I am so sure of what I am saying. Most people don't know that there are about 35% to 40% Christians in Niger state. That is why the Christians there have vowed that any political party that failed to have a Christian deputy will lose the next governorship election. Now add the 17 states of the South and 6 states of the North Central and it will give you 23 states. Now add Taraba, Adamawa, Gombe and Kaduna. That is a total of 27 states.
Bookmark this post for future reference. Obi is the next president of Nigeria.

Your brain matter is watery. I pity your stupid ignorance

senatordave1:
Oga,even with bvas north recorded higher turnout than south.ekiti the smallest in sw recorded more votes a whole anambra

Which bvas is that?

Has Kano ever used Bvas??

nameo:
Which bvas is that?

Has Kano ever used Bvas??

Not kano but jigawa,kaduna,plateau.the lowest turnout are still se ss.think of how kano will be

obailala:
From my analysis, these are the states OBI is VERY SURE to hit 25% (and even more):
1. Anambra
2. Abia
3. Ebonyi
4. Enugu
5. Imo
6. Akwa-Ibom
7. Cross-Rivers
8. Rivers
9. Bayelsa
10. Delta
11. Edo
12. Lagos
13. Benue
14. Plateau

These are the additional states OBI is LIKELY to win 25%:
15. Nasarawa
16. Kaduna
17. Taraba
18. Ogun
19. Oyo
20. Ondo
21. Osun
22. Ekiti

In total, these are 22 states I think OBI is likely or sure of winning ≥25%.... The remaining 14 states are up for grabs and OBI still needs about 2 states in the bag. Which of these 14 states can additionally be added to the bag?

Kogi - Kwara - Niger - Adamawa - Bauchi - Borno - Gombe - Yobe - Jigawa - Kano - Katsina - Kebbi - Sokoto - Zamfara

Obi will be able to get 25% in 24 states.
Remember that Abuja is also considered a state, so add it for Obi. Then Kogi and probably Adamawa can yield 25% to Obi too. In Kogi, Igalas are the majority and they're inclined towards South than North. Tinubu will get votes from the okun speaking part of Kogi but the fact they're mostly Christians means Obi will snatch lots of votes there. Igbiras will split their votes between Atiku and Tinubu. So Tinubu wins Kogi by 50%, Obi and Atiku gets 25% each.

Kwara might also pull a surprise by giving Obi 25%. Remember that Oyedepo is from Kwara and they have many Christians too. The fact that no state can give Tinubu more 60%, including yorubaland gives Obi a good chance of snatching 25%.

senatordave1:
Not kano but jigawa,kaduna,plateau.the lowest turnout are still se ss.think of how kano will be

How will lowest turnout be SE and SS when they've both presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively?

This is the first time since the end of the civil war that someone from the East is close to winning a presidential election and you think there won't be massive turnout? Especially when other options are too dangerous to be allowed to win?

Northwest has no one on the ballot and Buhari they invested so much emotions failed them abysmally. So they won't be motivated to come out en mass. Secondly, BVAS will drastically reduce their surreal bloated votes.

lovewins:
I really do think Obi should revisit the South East and the South South states again. The strategy shouldn't just be getting 25% in 24 states (which isn't very likely) it should also include ensuring the opposition do not get the required 25% in states that should traditionally be Obi's stronghold.

It will be disappointing if any of Atiku gets 25% in any of the south eastern states. Efforts should also be intensified to ensure Obi gains more ground in the south especially in states like Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Bayelsa.

Even if Obi doesn't win ok first ballot, efforts should be made to ensure he makes second ballot (only the top 2 candidates will qualify). The sheer possiblity of Peter Obi making it to the last round will further inspire more people to come out enmass to vote. It will make people realize their votes count.

I believe Obi should make 25% in Ogun and Nasarawa and Taraba. Ogun has major cities like Abeokuta, Ota, Ijebu with a significant young and literate voting population who should swing Obi. Major Abuja folks living in Nasarawa with the significant Christian population should be enough to get him 25%. Taraba is majority Christian, Obi should also hit 25% here.

I worry more about the South East and South South. Of course he will get the 25% here, but should the opposition gain significant inroad here, it's game over.

I totally agree with you. The game plan of Atiku and PDP is to win NW/ NE regions and get good amounts of votes in regions that they might not win.

Atiku and PDP have already given up on SE and SW. The plan is to win at least 3 states in SS and at least 3 states in NC.

Hence for Obi to win on first ballot, he must win the 6 SS states convincingly. The battle will be tough in Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa where PDP have sitting Governors with lots of money.

If Atiku win those three states and get Niger and Nassarawa in NC, the battle is over.

MrEverest:
How will lowest turnout be SE and SS when they've both presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively?

This is the first time since the end of the civil war that someone from the East is close to winning a presidential election and you think there won't be massive turnout? Especially when other options are too dangerous to be allowed to win?

Northwest has no one on the ballot and Buhari they invested so much emotions failed them abysmally. So they won't be motivated to come out en mass. Secondly, BVAS will drastically reduce their surreal bloated votes.

Bvas will reduce the votes of everyone. EEven in 2015 when gej was on the ballot,ss se votes were the lowest talkless of obi with a mushroom party and with ESN and ipob prowling

Wickedfacts:
To get 25%, he must win at least 1 local government.
Tell us the Local Government Peter Obi will win in Ogun state.

You're dumb. Peter Obi doesn't need to win any local government to get 25% gross.

senatordave1:
Bvas will reduce the votes of everyone. EEven in 2015 when gej was on the ballot,ss se votes were the lowest talkless of obi with a mushroom party and with ESN and ipob prowling

You can only compare the energy the people of SE and SS have for Obi with that of 2011. By 2015, many Nigerians were already disappointed in Jonathan, including SS/SE.

Secondly, the youths are championing the awareness and this is unprecedented. On 25 February, most people will be at the polling units instead of watching movies or playing football like in the past.

There won't be voter aparty in the SE/SS, go and mark it!