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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Can OBI Win On First Ballot? (2486 Views)
Bayo Onanuga: Forget The Polls, No Rerun, Tinubu Will Win At First Ballot / Which South West States Can Obi And Atiku Get 25%? / Which States Will Peter Obi Win To Win The Presidential Election? (2) (3) (4)
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 10:53pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
MrEverest: If there will be mass turnout,you will see the signs.people will come out massively for his rallies in se ss but still,he records low turnout. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Waterysperm: 11:01pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
Wickedfacts:Bro let's stake on it. I have 50k already. Mind you, this is just for fun not war. Let's see who wins at the end. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by obailala(m): 11:01pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
senatordave1:Rallies? What exactly is the relevance of rallies to so many people? 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by MrEverest(m): 11:02pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
senatordave1: Lol, you think it's by coming out during rallies? No! Rallies are more dependent on logistics than a true reflection of one's popularity. You saw the massive crowd that came out in Ebonyi for Peter Obi? Not even Anambra had such turnout. Does it now mean Ebonyi people love Obi the most in SE? No! What happened was that LP organizers in Ebonyi were more organized than other SE states. Southerners hardly come out for rallies because they're relatively more gainfully employed than Northerners. Any rally you see in the South with filled stadiums, just know that students and village women from different local governments we're mobilized with promises of paying them money. Don't worry, February 25 will shock you. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 11:02pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
obailala: Buhari recorded mass rallies up north in 2015.it shows that people are anxious and enthusiastic about his rulership |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Waterysperm: 11:04pm On Feb 08, 2023 |
lionshare:Let's choose a middle man here. I don't know if Seun will agree to it. But if not, there are other persons of integrity we can transfer the money to. Remember my bet, Obi will get more votes than Atiku in Kwara state. I dey wait. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Wickedfacts: 12:33am On Feb 09, 2023 |
MrEverest: The foolish animal you call your father is dumb, you stupid pig. Get off my mentions and go hang. Cursed bastard. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by obailala(m): 12:33am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1:That I dont attend a rally organised on Tuesday, or even on Saturday, that doesn't mean I wouldn't go out and vote on election day. Rallies are important for awareness; they also help encourage 'faithless' voters that the candidate indeed has a chance of winning. But just like myself, I know hundreds of other willing voters who wouldnt bother going out for those street carnivals. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 12:40am On Feb 09, 2023 |
obailala: Rallies are important whether you like it or not.do you realize that obi supporters were pulling crowds before campaigns started yet we hardly see these turnout? You use it to gauge a candidate's strength.a popular candidate usually attracts crowds.if I can accept money and attend to rallies of atiku that I hate,nothing will stop me from going for tinubu own...in 2019 in calabar,when atiku came a lot of people went to the stadium to see atiku yet in 2023,those people who are now with obi refused to go.obi is overhyped my friend |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by obailala(m): 12:49am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1:Lol... so you think because people arent falling over themselves to attend OBI rallies, it means his support is dwindling? What a JOKE! For one, I'm not jobless and would never bother attending any of those useless campaign rallies where politicians do nothing but dance and say rubbish; I value my time so much and wouldnt squander it on such frivolities. In my opinion, people who attend such campaign rallies are mainly paid actors or just jobless onlookers... But that notwithstanding, that I wont attend rallies doesnt mean I dont have a candidate I support. 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 12:51am On Feb 09, 2023 |
obailala: A lot of employed people attend such rallies.do you realize some obi supporters even attend tinubu rallies yet cannot attend obi own? No matter how you see it,obi should pull crowd in his region he isnt |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by obailala(m): 12:57am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1:What kind of gainfully employed person leaves their jobs to go attend political rallies on a Tuesday afternoon? You just said OBI supporters attend Tinubu's rally but not OBI's own; doesnt that already prove my point that those useless rallies are attended mainly by paid actors? So because an OBI supporter attends Tinubu's rally, does that automatically make them not to vote OBI on election day?... Keep deveivimg yourself! 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 1:12am On Feb 09, 2023 |
obailala: You yourself knows obi won't win.highest he can do is to get to a runoff 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by obailala(m): 2:59am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1:Ahaa! So a runoff is possible? Should have known you were just another 'wishful thinker' who's peeing on himself over OBI's divine progress in the last 8 months. Started from: "OBI only has 4 online supporters operating from a tiny room" to "OBI can't win a single local govt, he has no structure" to "OBI can only win south eastern states" Now its "The highest OBI can do is drag the election to a run-off" Whoever said progress was a slow process definitely wasnt talking about OBI. The God of the suffering, molested, neglected and abused Nigerians has finally decided to show His might hand. Imagine presidential candidates insulting Nigerians that they're TOO BIG to attend interviews or speak to anyone except on their terms. Such despicable arrogance fuelled by their massive stash of stolen public funds. Cant even imagine what becomes of Nigeria if such arrogance wins the election. God forbid! 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by nameo: 8:16am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1: Are those state or federal constituency off season elections? Plzz share the turnout rate for those. I wanna chwck something |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by blacksam01: 8:37am On Feb 09, 2023 |
obailala: your analysis is closest to the truth |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by lionshare: 9:14am On Feb 09, 2023 |
Waterysperm:Agreed! You can suggest any other active & perhaps reliable member. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by BamakSNR(m): 9:17am On Feb 09, 2023 |
Why not. Only in Anambra thou. He can't win 6 states |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Kasdat5(m): 9:23am On Feb 09, 2023 |
I laugh when I see people tagging Kaduna as were LP will win . Until then Sha , 25th no far again |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Kasdat5(m): 9:31am On Feb 09, 2023 |
BeardedmeatR: Hehe , %25 in Kano Kuma . Una dey amaze me . If LP pulls %10 in Kano , PDP / APC are having over %25 in Anambra |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Kasdat5(m): 9:34am On Feb 09, 2023 |
Waterysperm: Where can we stake this 50k abeg . In Niger state , if he gets %25 , you win the bet |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 9:57am On Feb 09, 2023 |
nameo: Legislative reruns.I can't recall the others but in anambra,turnout was 250,000 while in ekiti it was 309,000.,in jos rerun,it was 40% while in aba rerun,it was 18% |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by nameo: 10:12am On Feb 09, 2023 |
senatordave1: I want figures plzz. Dont worry, i will try to get it myself |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by senatordave1(m): 10:15am On Feb 09, 2023 |
nameo: Only a miracle will spur se ss turnout |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by wegevv: 1:23pm On Feb 09, 2023 |
obailala: You can't possibly know that. You are going off the common assumption that the core north will always vote against Obi and the SW will never fully support him. I actually feel the same way to an extent but you just never know. Here's a thread where Penguin2 asked a similar question to the north a while ago (before the primaries) https://www.nairaland.com/6942083/northerners-vote-igbo-man-president. I have gone through the thread and found 4 northerners that responded (asanausana91, HarunaWest, FoolishBoy419 and QuotaSystem). Based on their recent comments 2 of them are now supporting Atiku, 1 is supporting Tinubu and the other is refusing to vote. Based on the same recent comments the two Atiku supporters seem to prefer Obi to Tinubu while the Tinubu supporter seems to prefer Atiku to Obi (I'm inferring from the recent post they can correct me if I'm wrong). Not exactly what you would expect right? Anyway all of this is anecdotal. I hear what you're saying and agree with your points but I just don't believe "it's almost certainly game-over!" for Obi in a run-off. If Obi wins the popular vote with huge support from the youths but falls just short of the spread you have no idea what the reaction of the country will be. You think most Nigerians, even in the north, will just decide to give the presidency to Tinubu for example based on pre-conceived notions? I don't think it's that simple. Even the reaction from politicians across the country and the political parties that lost would be uncertain. We don't know what NNPP will decide for instance. Anyway let's watch and see. Personally I just hope APC are humiliated in this election. The message needs to be loud and clear so our future leaders can take heed. 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Penguin2: 1:39pm On Feb 09, 2023 |
wegevv: You know I share in the sentiments of the Op. I fear that if the election goes into a run-off, Obi will be at a disadvantage because of some deep seated sentiments of the core north and some Yoruba against an Igbo presidency. But like you said, these things are not cast in stone… No one can really predict the way things will pan out if things go to run-off. For instance, if it’s between Obi and Tinubu, whoever Atiku decides to throw his weight behind might likely have an edge. And you and I know that Atiku seems to have a better relationship with Obi than with Tinubu; though anything can happen. If it’s between Obi and Atiku, it is not impossible that Tinubu might be impressioned on to play the kingmaker that God seems to have destined him to be, and throw his weight behind Obi for the sake of Southern presidency. So, in all, a lot of dynamics might come into play that will swing things either way. So, let’s continue to wait and watch. |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by lovewins: 1:55pm On Feb 09, 2023 |
Penguin2: The problem though will be Obi's reluctance to strike a deal. He has gotten this far my staying clear of political favours that will ultimately put his presidency at the mercy of a few political elite. Also, Tinubu and Atiku have history, they are both cut from the same political school of Shehu Yaradua and both have no issues trading favours to get what they want. They are likely to strike a deal in a runoff situation with Obi. The solution however is if Nigerians irrespective of their ethnic or political leanings decide to take a new direction in Obi. 1 Like |
Re: Can OBI Win On First Ballot? by Penguin2: 2:10pm On Feb 09, 2023 |
lovewins: I know of Atiku and Tinubu’s past, they were even business partners until Atiku sold his shares at INTELs. That’s why I said anything can happen. Again, you know Kwankwaso is still there and he too seems to prefer Tinubu to Obi. If Obi will become president, he has to win at first ballot. Anything less and his chances will become slimmer. |
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