This analysis is gotten from data gotten from the conglomeration of the various opinion polls that has been conducted. This is a turnout of 40% all things being equal

Points to note.
1. Only Atiku has the spread of 25% in 27 states of the 36, Tinubu is short of 1 state while Obi is short of 3.

2. Obi has the majority votes while Tinubu is first runner up

3. If the turnout remains like this, then Obi and Atiku will go into a run off.

4. If new voters come out for Obi, then he will win at first ballot.

5. Tinubu and Atiku cannot get more than this unless Kwankwaso steps down for either of them then they will enter a run off with Obi.

Dear Obidients, the ball is in your court, come out and vote then Obi wins at first Ballot, stay at home, then he might risk a run off.

This election will be tight!

Kwankwaso will make it more tighter in the north

I like this one

Students are also voting, majority of them are Obidients

Tinubu should step down asap
It is over

Emperormartin:
This election will be tight!

Kwankwaso will make it more tighter in the north

He probably wont see the point of doing this and step down for one of the 3 main candidates within the next 2 weeks

Your figures for Obi wins in Nasarawa, Kogi, Kebbi, Taraba Kaduna and Adamawa are lower than projected.

Minimum Obi Wins is 18.5M.....

Very unrealistic analysis. So you think only Obi has the monopoly of bloc votes in his region ? What makes you think Tinubu and Atiku will not get the same ? at the end same tribalism will play out across board.

You try

But Obi will get 25% in Kogi, Osun and Niger

He will also sweep Abuja and score most votes in Nasarawa.

Obi will win on first ballot

Onovo3:
Very unrealistic analysis. So you think only Obi has the monopoly of bloc votes in his region ? What makes you think Tinubu and Atiku will not get the same ? at the end same tribalism will play out across board.

Not me the opinion polls shows that this is how it will play out all things being equal.......

Just dey play,,
Jagaban is coming

Onovo3:
Very unrealistic analysis. So you think only Obi has the monopoly of bloc votes in his region ? What makes you think Tinubu and Atiku will not get the same ? at the end same tribalism will play out across board.

As in eh.only obi will have bloc votes with a mushroom party while household names will struggle in their regions.what a useless analysis

ZKOSOSO:
Your figures for Obi wins in Nasarawa, Kogi, Kebbi, Taraba Kaduna and Adamawa are lower than projected.

Minimum Obi Wins is 18.5M.....

Yeah with good awareness his votes can increase in those places but Adamawa is Atiku's home so he's going to win it well.

Onovo3:
Very unrealistic analysis. So you think only Obi has the monopoly of bloc votes in his region ? What makes you think Tinubu and Atiku will not get the same ? at the end same tribalism will play out across board.

So you mean Atiku will all the states in the North East?
Tinubu will win all the South west states?

Emperormartin:
This election will be tight!

Kwankwaso will make it more tighter in the north

KWANKWASO AIN'T DOING ENOUGH,HE IS TRULY NOT A HEAVYWEIGHT POLITICIAN

But he should stay in the race regardless

derealj:


Not me the opinion polls shows that this is how it will play out all things being equal.......

I like the arrangement and methodology but you are being incredibly biased.for ne,obi can't get up to 50,000 in bauchi,borno,yobe.how dare you say obi will get more votes in bauchi and borno than gombe? Obi cannot beat kwankwaso there. What rubbish.the analysis in taraba,Adamawa and gombe are ok.
For nw,obi won't score up to 20,00) in sokoto,katsina,jigawa,kebbi.he won't score more than 100,000 in kano.I am ok with kaduna but tinubu will get 25% in kano...
Obi will likely win plateau and benue but tinubu and atiku will get 25%.tinubu will beat atiku in benue definitely.obi won't see 25% in kwara same as atiku.obi won't get up to 50,000 in niger.nasarawa and kogi is acceptable...
Obi won't score more than 60% in edo and rivers.tinubu will surely get more than 25% in Edo and rivers now that wike is with him.obi might not get 25% in bayelsa.this is obi weakest state.tinubu will win or lose crs narrowly.. All parties will get 25% in delta...
Apart from anambra and enugu obi can't get 80% in any se state.tinubu and atiku will get 25% 25% in the other three states or one or two of them or worst case 20%.
Finally tinubu will meet the 25% spread,atiku will miss out.

senatordave1:


As in eh.only obi will have bloc votes with a mushroom party while household names will struggle in their regions.what a useless analysis

Household names that have impoverished your generation

U no de shame

senatordave1:


As in eh.only obi will have bloc votes with a mushroom party while household names will struggle in their regions.what a useless analysis

Lols when the so called big parties ate dividing each other's votes.

Underrate Obi at your own peril.....

Lol. Another ipobic projection that lacks common sense. How will anybody project Peter Obi to get more than 5% in any North west state other than Kaduna? How exactly will Atiku defeat Tinubu in Oyo and Osun state? How exactly will Peter Obi get more than 5% in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and Ogun? Make una just dey play.

SpatialKing:

So you mean Atiku will all the states in the North East?
Tinubu will win all the South west states?

Tinubu will clear sw but atiku will win half of ne

derealj:


Lols when the so called big parties ate dividing each other's votes.

Underrate Obi at your own peril.....

Obi is dividing mostly pdp votes.obi can never get 25% in ekiti

Fair analysis. . . .

Obi will definitely sweep NC, SS, SE(not bad for a 'structureless-party from NOLLYWOOD'). El-RufaYI? How MARKYYYYET?

Na Kwankwaso go be the 'spoiler' for the NE and NW.

Obi go be the spoiler for SW and Abuja.

This wan go tough gaaaaaaaaaaaan. . . .Na fight to die!

seunmsg:
Lol. Another ipobic projection that lacks common sense. How will anybody project Peter Obi to get more than 5% in any North west state other than Kaduna? How exactly will Atiku defeat Tinubu in Oyo and Osun state? How exactly will Peter Obi get more than 5% in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo and Ogun? Make una just dey play.

Go and protest for Yoruba Nissan.

It's ongoing

Reading and following the analysis and projections

Very good and well thought analysis…. Good job

This is when people use sense to do senseful things unlike some immature kids on this platform

Bookmarked

You Expect Obi to win south East easily, while you expect Atiku and Tinubu to struggle in their respective regions. Yet you igbos go about calling Yoruba Tribalists. From your permutation, it is clear that Igbos are the real Tribalist.

SpatialKing:

So you mean Atiku will all the states in the North East?
Tinubu will win all the South west states?

Obi will win all the South East and South South State?

Where are all the Northern 'millions' and 'billions' of voters from Chad and Niger Republic?
INEC should release the total # over PVCs collected.

Where did the 14 million votes for Buhari come from?

KanwuliaExtra:
Fair analysis. . . .

Obi will definitely sweep NC, SS, SE(not bad for a 'structureless-party from NOLLYWOOD'). El-RufaYI? How MARKYYYYET?

Na Kwankwa go be the 'spoiler' for the NE and NW.

Obi go be the spoiler for SW and Abuja.

This wan go tough gaaaaaaaaaaaan. . . .Na fight to die!

You expect Obi to be the spoiler in the south west, yet you dubious creatures are fond of accusing Yorubas of Tribalism. You expect Obi to clear his region, but Tinubu will struggle in the west?

Tinubu will win Osun and Oyo, Atiku cant win those states.




Tinubu will win all Southwest states, edit your prediction.



Also Obi won't get as much votes as you allocated to him in some Northwest states.



But Obi will get more votes than you allocated to him in some Southeast and Southsouth states.


The election will enter a rerun definitely, unless Baba Bulabo steps down for Peter Obi for the greater good of the South

Philistine:

You expect Obi to be the spoiler in the south west, yet you dubious creatures are fond of accusing Yorubas of Tribalism. You expect Obi to clear his region, but Tinubu will struggle in the west?

2023 is Igbo Lo kan not Yoruba's turn, your wise elites like Obasanjo, Pa Adebanjo, Prince Ebunoluwa and many others have told you this, even Ooni have said same and some of your unpopular Obas said same, listen to your elders please.




Igbos supported Yorubas when it was your turn, equity and fairness demands you Yorubas support Igbos this time okay