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How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) - Politics (4) - Nairaland

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Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by LegalWolf: 1:38pm On Feb 12, 2023
Madridstar:
na ortom get issue with atiku not benue. The crisis between us and fulani is a complicated one, which i can't deliberate more. if not for the emergence of obi and the hope for a new Nigeria, benue would have been for PDP, I said PDP because benue sees PDP as PDP and not PDP as atiku or atiku as PDP, Ortom mess benue up in his 8years and his just chasing clout with fulanis attacks and G5. No doubt PDP get level not for atiku but for men they have on grounds, former senator David mark, former governor Suswam, to mention few. The presidential race is between obi and atiku. Benue no send Tinubu.

This quite objective, but do you know that Ortom won Benue on APC ticket in 2015? APC still has big names in Benue that we cannot just push aside.

Let us watch how things will pan out. But Benue promises to be interesting!
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 1:44pm On Feb 12, 2023
Svoboda:


So kogi and niger are fulani states too?

No they are not...

But you see these fulani people...

They know how to ginger Hausa people and other tribes to vote for them..

When it is time for election

Fulani man will tell Hausa man that they are brothers and most vote in one Accord

And As if they use Juju on them

You will see Hausa people and other tribes following the lead of the Fulani man

That is why Kashim Mustapha Shettima was wailing recently in the palace of a Fulani Emir that the North is not supportive of his ambition...

Why ..

because the Fulani people with the rivalry they have with Kanuri people have successfully motivated the other Northern Tribes against the Kanuri candidate

Fulanis ( Who are minorities) are the real political power brokers in the North

1 Like

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by majole: 1:47pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:
Benue
Apc 30%
Pdp 25%
Lp 45%

Plateau
Apc 32%
Pdp 25%
Lp 40%
Nnpp 3%

Nasarawa
Apc 32%
Pdp 32%
Lp 32%
Nnpp 4%

Kogi
Apc 48%
Pdp 30%
Lp 20%
Nnpp 2%

Niger
Apc 45%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 10%

Kwara
Apc 67%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%
Nnpp 3%

Fct
Apc 30%
Pdp 30%
Lp 33%
Nnpp 7%




Mynd44
Nplfmod
Obinoscopy
Seun
Vicdom
Mymouth
Kahal
Donphilopus
Indispensable
Noethnicity
Quotasystem
Arewanorth
Silvertongue
Penguin2
Digitron
Sionkpo


We are 2 weeks away

2 Likes

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Svoboda(m): 1:51pm On Feb 12, 2023
Zelenskyy:


No they are not...

But you see these fulani people...

They know how to ginger Hausa people and other tribes to vote for them..

When it is time for election

Fulani man will tell Hausa man that they are brothers and most vote in one Accord

And As if they use Juju on them

You will see Hausa people and other tribes following the lead of the Fulani man

That is why Kashim Mustapha Shettima was wailing recently in the palace of a Fulani Emir that the North is not supportive of his ambition...

Why ..

because the Fulani people with the rivalry they have with Kanuri people have successfully motivated the other Northern Tribes against the Kanuri candidate

Fulanis ( Who are minorities) are the real political power brokers in the North

Count kogi, kwara, plateau, benue out of aligning with fulani dominance. These states are unforgivably pro south. Buhari in cpc and anpp failed to win each of those states all the times he contested, how much more a weaker atiku v an abiola protege like BAT, with LP gnawing at the votes of pdp in that zone.

1 Like 1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Arafat2022: 1:54pm On Feb 12, 2023
Continue deceiving your self
Apc will never Success at any North Central state they're responsibles they knew what they're doing.
PDP AtikuOkowaOrganizingForAction will Succeed to Rescues Redirect and Rebuild Nigeria

1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by qawiyy(m): 1:58pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:


It is a tinubu vs obi runoff

plz can you give me a hint about the run off will happen..like in which regions will the run off hold?
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by codedguy1(m): 2:13pm On Feb 12, 2023
naijapips04:
Lots of obidient heart will be broken. Lagos is just a glimpse of what it is to happen. The more you make noise, the more you galvanize the previously politically uninterested to come out and teach you noisemakers a lesson.

So the gaffes, licking of mic and peeing all over the place that one emilokan is displaying all over the place will not galvanise the previously politically uninterested to come out to vote so as not to have a calamitous disaster like that rep them as president?

Very myopic way of thinking.
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:25pm On Feb 12, 2023
qawiyy:


plz can you give me a hint about the run off will happen..like in which regions will the run off hold?

In every region and state,a repeat election
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:26pm On Feb 12, 2023
majole:



We are 2 weeks away

What is your final analysis
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:27pm On Feb 12, 2023
LegalWolf:


As in, you will begin to wonder whether these people have been to these places. LP win plateau? Is this not laughable? Who are their candidates in Plateau, what resources do they have....

In fact, I can't with this people!

Hon Patrick dakum lp guber candidate is strong, same as Chris gyang their senate candidate.apc and pdp are in crisis

1 Like

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:33pm On Feb 12, 2023
Madridstar:
na ortom get issue with atiku not benue. The crisis between us and fulani is a complicated one, which i can't deliberate more. if not for the emergence of obi and the hope for a new Nigeria, benue would have been for PDP, I said PDP because benue sees PDP as PDP and not PDP as atiku or atiku as PDP, Ortom mess benue up in his 8years and his just chasing clout with fulanis attacks and G5. No doubt PDP get level not for atiku but for men they have on grounds, former senator David mark, former governor Suswam, to mention few. The presidential race is between obi and atiku. Benue no send Tinubu.

You lie.the hatred for atiku and fulani will be translated to pdp just as buhari was at the receiving end...
Suswan is the only pdp candidate that is sure of victory and atiku might win zone A because of him.but father alia,gemade,aondoakaa and udende will get votes for tinubu in that zone esp jechira clan...
In zone B,akume will deliver tarka and gboko.labour will take makurdi.buruku and gwer will divide.atiku won't see votes in guma.maybe ayuu will give him some votes gboko.
I'm zone C,morro is becoming unpopular.the apc candidate Daniel onjeh will win him.david mark daughter holds oturkpo while oju and obi hates pdp.Sam ode,young alhaji will bring votes

1 Like 1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by oladosu59996: 2:47pm On Feb 12, 2023
.did the op say apc will win those states?.did the op say apc will win those states?...
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Obaaderemi2: 2:51pm On Feb 12, 2023
HIGHESTPOPORI:
Urchin dey disguise, you mean. You studied tinubu and found out he is the best in looting and drug
Anybody who doesn't support your useless candidate is an urchin. You are the real urchin.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zulum500: 3:01pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:


You lie.the hatred for atiku and fulani will be translated to pdp just as buhari was at the receiving end...
Suswan is the only pdp candidate that is sure of victory and atiku might win zone A because of him.but father alia,gemade,aondoakaa and udende will get votes for tinubu in that zone esp jechira clan...
In zone B,akume will deliver tarka and gboko.labour will take makurdi.buruku and gwer will divide.atiku won't see votes in guma.maybe ayuu will give him some votes gboko.
I'm zone C,morro is becoming unpopular.the apc candidate Daniel onjeh will win him.david mark daughter holds oturkpo while oju and obi hates pdp.Sam ode,young alhaji will bring votes

Simple analysis... Bro stop quoting that chinedu 😁
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by qawiyy(m): 3:02pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:

In every region and state,a repeat election
wow! so Obi/lp will likely lose if he qualifies for the run off
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Northernblood8(m): 3:03pm On Feb 12, 2023
Zelenskyy:


Don't mind garfield1

He is clearly not in the field as he claims

He even gave plateau State to labour party...

Atiku Abubakar will sweep over the North Central

Niger State will surely fall to the PDP this time around.

Fulani people have seen the handwriting on the wall that, they will not taste power at the centre for at least 24 years if the APC wins...

Hence they are dancing gradually to Atiku Abubakar and the PDP


Majority of the Hausa Fulani people and their Sympathizers in the North Central will vote massively for the PDP

Una no get sense aswear

Which people do you think will be controlling the presidency if Tinubu wins? Do you think that he will know his left from his right?

Foolish people still think that President and presidency are the same. Look at what we suffered under Bulhari because the Buffon doesn't even know where he is and yet you idiots still want to sustain same structure that put us in this mess.

1 Like

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Aremwayne: 3:09pm On Feb 12, 2023
Zulum500:


Chinedu na you...
Most of people here in markurdi are rooting for TINUBU cuz he's not a fanatic..
Obi chances are low
Lol which of the makurdi people are rooting for Tinubu ? Una go just dey lie anyhow 😂😂😂

2 Likes

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Madridstar(m): 4:34pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:


You lie.the hatred for atiku and fulani will be translated to pdp just as buhari was at the receiving end...
Suswan is the only pdp candidate that is sure of victory and atiku might win zone A because of him.but father alia,gemade,aondoakaa and udende will get votes for tinubu in that zone esp jechira clan...
In zone B,akume will deliver tarka and gboko.labour will take makurdi.buruku and gwer will divide.atiku won't see votes in guma.maybe ayuu will give him some votes gboko.
I'm zone C,morro is becoming unpopular.the apc candidate Daniel onjeh will win him.david mark daughter holds oturkpo while oju and obi hates pdp.Sam ode,young alhaji will bring votes
lol.. for your mind, we are still in the era of "he will deliver" grin nobody is delivering any state or LG for anybody. people are voting their choice, that's the sanitazation going on tey tey. If it's by an individual delivering a state, then labour party won't win anything. We have gone past delivering a state. We move.

2 Likes

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Madridstar(m): 4:35pm On Feb 12, 2023
LegalWolf:


This quite objective, but do you know that Ortom won Benue on APC ticket in 2015? APC still has big names in Benue that we cannot just push aside.

Let us watch how things will pan out. But Benue promises to be interesting!
yes, that was before benue knew ortom don't have sense.
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by ibechris(m): 4:39pm On Feb 12, 2023
APC cannot get 10% in Abuja...I am very serious about this.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by MyMouth(m): 4:42pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:
Benue
Apc 30%
Pdp 25%
Lp 45%

Plateau
Apc 32%
Pdp 25%
Lp 40%
Nnpp 3%

Nasarawa
Apc 32%
Pdp 32%
Lp 32%
Nnpp 4%

Kogi
Apc 48%
Pdp 30%
Lp 20%
Nnpp 2%

Niger
Apc 45%
Pdp 35%
Nnpp 10%
Lp 10%

Kwara
Apc 67%
Pdp 20%
Lp 10%
Nnpp 3%

Fct
Apc 30%
Pdp 30%
Lp 33%
Nnpp 7%




Mynd44
Nplfmod
Obinoscopy
Seun
Vicdom
Mymouth
Kahal
Donphilopus
Indispensable
Noethnicity
Quotasystem
Arewanorth
Silvertongue
Penguin2
Digitron
Sionkpo
Now, this is a more realistic prediction, I have said it here over and over again that LP may most likely win plateau and Benue, but u see other states in the north central apart from nassarawa, na APC get them. Nassarawa is a little bit dicey. It's going to be a three horse race B/w APC, LP, and PDP.
The only wahala for APC is this ongoing hardship brought about by scarcity of naira and fuel. I hope it is taken care of before the polls.
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 5:45pm On Feb 12, 2023
Northernblood8:


Una no get sense aswear

Which people do you think will be controlling the presidency if Tinubu wins? Do you think that he will know his left from his right?

Foolish people still think that President and presidency are the same. Look at what we suffered under Bulhari because the Buffon doesn't even know where he is and yet you idiots still want to sustain same structure that put us in this mess.

Your Ashawo Mama nor get aswear

Go Call your family members foolish People

You are a dirty idiot for replying my comment with insults

Kwassia
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Digitron: 5:45pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:


I am the most objective apc fan here.try and do a research.I gave benue plateau and fct to lp but not by a wide margin.nasarawa is tight but apc or lp will win it.apc will likely win niger.atiku will likely not win any state in nc.it is between tinubu and obi

The flaw in your analysis is that base your analysis on one thing "PARTY STRUCTURE".

There are three factors working against BAT.

1. The poor performance of APC generally.
2. TInubu's consistent gaffes.
3. His perception in the core north as a fake Muslim after his inability to recite some fundamental parts of the Holy Quoran in Kaduna.

So, it is difficult to sell BAT to common voters who are not party stakeholders.

As a strategist, let me take do a bit of numerical analysis, if you look at 2019 presidential election in Niger,

Buhari scored 618,000 votes and
Atiku scored 218,000 votes.

Now, let look at the LIKELY groups that made up the Numbers,

For Buhari 600k voters, his voters are mostly from
a. Party Faithfuls (200k)
b. Those who see Buhari as pro-poor, incorruptible and the best candidate on the balot (100K)
c. Religious and Ethnic sentiments (300K)

For Atiku's 200k, his voters are mostly from
a. THose who believe in the Atiku brand - 50k
b. Anti-APC Sentiments - 50k
c. Christian sentiments - 50k
d. Non-natives- 50k

To make my analysis easier, let us assume that the number of voters will be the same in 2023.
Looking at the Buhari's Votes.
a. Tinubu will take the first 200k, which is party faithful.
b. Kwankwanso and Obi will share the second group, (Kwankwanso will take 70k, Obi 30k)
c. Religious and ethnic sentiments group will go to Atiku and Kwankwaso (Atiku 250k, Kwankwaso 50k)


For the Atiku Votes.
Atiku will maintain the first group (those who believe in his brand)- 50k
Kwankwanso/obi/atiku will share the second group (Anti-APC group) - Kwankwanso 10k, Obi 10k and Atiku 30k.
Obi will Take the Christain sentiments- 50k
Obi will take the Non-natives -50k


Summarily, I am looking at

Atiku 330k Votes.
TInubu 200k Votes
Obi 140K
Kwankwaso 130K


Attached below is a result of the last LG election in Niger. Despite how flawed the election was, you could see how much votes NNPP and LP gathered. PDP did not participate

1 Share

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by kcnwaigbo: 5:46pm On Feb 12, 2023
kettykin:
Lots of people will be shocked on 25th February, i just see a lot of heart broken people whose sources of Cash out will be forever blocked
Oga what exactly happened in Lagos? Please educate me
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 5:49pm On Feb 12, 2023
Svoboda:


Count kogi, kwara, plateau, benue out of aligning with fulani dominance. These states are unforgivably pro south. Buhari in cpc and anpp failed to win each of those states all the times he contested, how much more a weaker atiku v an abiola protege like BAT, with LP gnawing at the votes of pdp in that zone.

And the same Kogi State and Kwara State voted for Buhari ?

Even if those states you mentioned will not vote for Atiku Abubakar,

They will still not vote for Peter Obi.......

They will rather chose to support Thïefnubu than Obi

1 Like

Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 6:15pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:


You lie.tinubu will clear kwara.saraki as a senate president couldn't deliver.he is finished.gej,obj,abiola won nc massively but shagari and buhari won narrowly which means they prefer southerners.
Pdp is nonexistent in niger.atiku won't win any state in nc.he will take third

In 2 weeks time

The Nigerian electorate will clear your doubts..

Shagari and Buhari won the NC narrowly and that feat would be repeated again

The colossal failure of the current APC Government will make the NC electorate turn their backs on the leading southern candidate

That same leading southern candidate is the architect of this failed government and he would not be rewarded with a 4 year mandate


Obi is not a factor here because the North Central electorate know that he cannot win the upcoming General Elections

Forget about the online and media hype surrounding Obi's candidacy

He cannot win the presidential election because there are no polling stations Online

The election results will expose the unnecessary hype surrounding Obi's candidacy...
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 6:30pm On Feb 12, 2023
MyMouth:

Now, this is a more realistic prediction, I have said it here over and over again that LP may most likely win plateau and Benue, but u see other states in the north central apart from nassarawa, na APC get them. Nassarawa is a little bit dicey. It's going to be a three horse race B/w APC, LP, and PDP.
The only wahala for APC is this ongoing hardship brought about by scarcity of naira and fuel. I hope it is taken care of before the polls.

Your last paragraph is too.the naira swap and fuel scarcity is bad for tinubu.
For kogi,I think tinubu will find it difficult in kogi east.pdo is strong there but onoja and echocho will try for him.I think bello will make one of them gov
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Svoboda(m): 6:41pm On Feb 12, 2023
Zelenskyy:


And the same Kogi State and Kwara State voted for Buhari ?

Even if those states you mentioned will not vote for Atiku Abubakar,

They will still not vote for Peter Obi.......

They will rather chose to support Thïefnubu than Obi

Those states voted buhari when he came into the mainstream of the apc with the backing of the likes of tinubu and co.

I am unashamedly pro Tinubu.
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 7:09pm On Feb 12, 2023
Digitron:


The flaw in your analysis is that base your analysis on one thing "PARTY STRUCTURE".

There are three factors working against BAT.

1. The poor performance of APC generally.
2. TInubu's consistent gaffes.
3. His perception in the core north as a fake Muslim after his inability to recite some fundamental parts of the Holy Quoran in Kaduna.

So, it is difficult to sell BAT to common voters who are not party stakeholders.

As a strategist, let me take do a bit of numerical analysis, if you look at 2019 presidential election in Niger,

Buhari scored 618,000 votes and
Atiku scored 218,000 votes.

Now, let look at the LIKELY groups that made up the Numbers,

For Buhari 600k voters, his voters are mostly from
a. Party Faithfuls (200k)
b. Those who see Buhari as pro-poor, incorruptible and the best candidate on the balot (100K)
c. Religious and Ethnic sentiments (300K)

For Atiku's 200k, his voters are mostly from
a. THose who believe in the Atiku brand - 50k
b. Anti-APC Sentiments - 50k
c. Christian sentiments - 50k
d. Non-natives- 50k

To make my analysis easier, let us assume that the number of voters will be the same in 2023.
Looking at the Buhari's Votes.
a. Tinubu will take the first 200k, which is party faithful.
b. Kwankwanso and Obi will share the second group, (Kwankwanso will take 70k, Obi 30k)
c. Religious and ethnic sentiments group will go to Atiku and Kwankwaso (Atiku 250k, Kwankwaso 50k)


For the Atiku Votes.
Atiku will maintain the first group (those who believe in his brand)- 50k
Kwankwanso/obi/atiku will share the second group (Anti-APC group) - Kwankwanso 10k, Obi 10k and Atiku 30k.
Obi will Take the Christain sentiments- 50k
Obi will take the Non-natives -50k


Summarily, I am looking at

Atiku 330k Votes.
TInubu 200k Votes
Obi 140K
Kwankwaso 130K


Attached below is a result of the last LG election in Niger. Despite how flawed the election was, you could see how much votes NNPP and LP gathered. PDP did not participate





I like your analysis and scientific methodology.
The poor performance and gaffes by tinubu will affect him among educated and enlightened neutrals and people in other parties.most of those that voted buhari and supported apc are still with tinubu but most of those that supported atiku are now with obi or kwankwaso.those that will vote tinubu are already determined to vote him no matter what.tinubu will find it difficult to get new voters in se ss but he will get in sw because of ethnicity and growing anger against north.in many northern rural areas wit illiterate voters,the party structure will easily sway new voters compared to other parties due to structure and reach...
C) which is inability to recite the Qur'an is exaggerated.it is a minor factor afterall atiku also cannot recite it and atiku is viewed as a liberal Muslim.the mm ticket is attractive to core or radical muslims.shettima fanaticism makes up for this..
While tinubu will have problem getting new voters,fortunately those new voters are not going to obe candidate but three which waters down everything.


Talking of niger state,I agree with you.while I do not base my analysis mainly on party structure and it is getting deemphasized,it will still play a role esp in rural areas.I'll come to that later...
I agree with party faithfuls but I do not agree that those who perceive him in b are those who perceive him as poor and incorruptible.I think they are mostly what you call buharists.most of them are muslims and will rather support the next available radical Muslim which means kwankwaso first then tinubu and atiku.obi will gain few from this pool.it will be 40k,30k,20k,10k respectively.
I think religious sentiments should be divided from ethnic sentiments and each has 150,000k.in religious sentiments,all available polls esp from Bantu and stears shows that muslims in nc prefer tinubu first before atiku and kwankwaso and niger Muslims are fanatical.so tinubu will take half which is 75,000...talking of ethnicity,none of the candidates is from niger.kwankwaso and atiku are fulanis and fulanis are micro minorities in niger.Nupes and gwaris are the largest tribes.obj defeated buhari here in 2003 which means ethnicity isn't a big factor.religion is a far bigger factor.but let us share the 150k each for the three muslims...
You said non indigenes are 50,00) and all will go to obi.this is not true.many non indigenes are yorubas and most won't go obi.infact,others are northerners.except you mean southern settlers but let's give obi 25,000.not all Christians will vote obi.a few will vote atiku and Tinubu but let's give obi 90%...
From that result sheet,apc still won and nnpp was second and you know nnpp is attractive to fanatic muslims like kano,katsina,bauchi,niger.again,that area is in suleja and suleja has many Christians.total votes was about 2000 and lp got 300 which is 12% which is low meaning if total votes was like 1000 lp will have like 100 or so and less is Muslim dominated areas...one,this shows that apc is still the dominant or preferred party with or without buhari on the ballot.there was a rerun election in magama and apc was excluded yet apc supported apga to win.this is where party structure is important.
Theres nothing like atiku brand.he has no followers or core supporters like buhari or kwankwaso so I'll reduce it to 25,000...

Final result will be tinubu 320,000 atiku 200,000
Obi 10,000,
Kwankwaso 100,000
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Digitron: 7:45pm On Feb 12, 2023
garfield1:




I like your analysis and scientific methodology.
The poor performance and gaffes by tinubu will affect him among educated and enlightened neutrals and people in other parties.most of those that voted buhari and supported apc are still with tinubu but most of those that supported atiku are now with obi or kwankwaso.those that will vote tinubu are already determined to vote him no matter what.tinubu will find it difficult to get new voters in se ss but he will get in sw because of ethnicity and growing anger against north.in many northern rural areas wit illiterate voters,the party structure will easily sway new voters compared to other parties due to structure and reach...
C) which is inability to recite the Qur'an is exaggerated.it is a minor factor afterall atiku also cannot recite it and atiku is viewed as a liberal Muslim.the mm ticket is attractive to core or radical muslims.shettima fanaticism makes up for this..
While tinubu will have problem getting new voters,fortunately those new voters are not going to obe candidate but three which waters down everything.


Talking of niger state,I agree with you.while I do not base my analysis mainly on party structure and it is getting deemphasized,it will still play a role esp in rural areas.I'll come to that later...
I agree with party faithfuls but I do not agree that those who perceive him in b are those who perceive him as poor and incorruptible.I think they are mostly what you call buharists.most of them are muslims and will rather support the next available radical Muslim which means kwankwaso first then tinubu and atiku.obi will gain few from this pool.it will be 40k,30k,20k,10k respectively.
I think religious sentiments should be divided from ethnic sentiments and each has 150,000k.in religious sentiments,all available polls esp from Bantu and stears shows that muslims in nc prefer tinubu first before atiku and kwankwaso and niger Muslims are fanatical.so tinubu will take half which is 75,000...talking of ethnicity,none of the candidates is from niger.kwankwaso and atiku are fulanis and fulanis are micro minorities in niger.Nupes and gwaris are the largest tribes.obj defeated buhari here in 2003 which means ethnicity isn't a big factor.religion is a far bigger factor.but let us share the 150k each for the three muslims...
You said non indigenes are 50,00) and all will go to obi.this is not true.many non indigenes are yorubas and most won't go obi.infact,others are northerners.except you mean southern settlers but let's give obi 25,000.not all Christians will vote obi.a few will vote atiku and Tinubu but let's give obi 90%...
From that result sheet,apc still won and nnpp was second and you know nnpp is attractive to fanatic muslims like kano,katsina,bauchi,niger.again,that area is in suleja and suleja has many Christians.total votes was about 2000 and lp got 300 which is 12% which is low meaning if total votes was like 1000 lp will have like 100 or so and less is Muslim dominated areas...one,this shows that apc is still the dominant or preferred party with or without buhari on the ballot.there was a rerun election in magama and apc was excluded yet apc supported apga to win.this is where party structure is important.
Theres nothing like atiku brand.he has no followers or core supporters like buhari or kwankwaso so I'll reduce it to 25,000...

Final result will be tinubu 320,000 atiku 200,000
Obi 10,000,
Kwankwaso 100,000

Well, I think there are two assumptions which you made in your analysis which I diagree with.

1. First is that Tinubu is the first choice for Muslims in Niger before Atiku and Kwankwanso. I dont agree with this assumption. Anybody who is voting based on religious sentiment is likely going to be a fantatics and a there is no way a fantatics will see a Tinubu as a better Muslim to Atiku and Kwankwanso.

2. Those who voted Buhari will remain with APC. This is unlikely to happen. There is nothing exciting about Tinubu to help him keep the Buhari 600k votes. Again, if you check 2011, 2015, 2019 election, buhari has consistely gotten 600k in Niger even when he contested under CPC in 2011. So, there is no way Tinubu or APC will inherit the entire votes.

Your reference to ObJ defeating buhari doesn't count because i dont consider all election conducted before 2015 as election
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 8:42pm On Feb 12, 2023
Digitron:


Well, I think there are two assumptions which you made in your analysis which I diagree with.

1. First is that Tinubu is the first choice for Muslims in Niger before Atiku and Kwankwanso. I dont agree with this assumption. Anybody who is voting based on religious sentiment is likely going to be a fantatics and a there is no way a fantatics will see a Tinubu as a better Muslim to Atiku and Kwankwanso.

2. Those who voted Buhari will remain with APC. This is unlikely to happen. There is nothing exciting about Tinubu to help him keep the Buhari 600k votes. Again, if you check 2011, 2015, 2019 election, buhari has consistely gotten 600k in Niger even when he contested under CPC in 2011. So, there is no way Tinubu or APC will inherit the entire votes.

Your reference to ObJ defeating buhari doesn't count because i dont consider all election conducted before 2015 as election




My brother,Bantu polls were very clear and explicit.it clearly showed that obi was preferred by at least 70% of Christians in nc.I believe you won't doubt this.it showed that tinubu was preferred by at least 50% of muslims and niger and nasarawa were the target areas.you can google it up again to aqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq1111qqq never said tinubu will retain buhari votes,it is not possible but he will retain at least half.the picture of a liberal atiku and an igbotic vp is displeasing to fanatics but a mm ticket esp a shettima from a perceived boko enclave is attractive.a highly pro north kwankwaso is also very attractive.

Again,lg polls are the worst parameters.lg polls are usually written so leave it.let's use inec conducted polls to analyse.your analysis is best suited to nasarawa,kogi
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 11:32pm On Feb 12, 2023
Svoboda:


Those states voted buhari when he came into the mainstream of the apc with the backing of the likes of tinubu and co.

I am unashamedly pro Tinubu.

You are therefore unashamedly one of the many problems of Nigeria

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