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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) (5355 Views)
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Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by LegalWolf: 1:38pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Madridstar: This quite objective, but do you know that Ortom won Benue on APC ticket in 2015? APC still has big names in Benue that we cannot just push aside. Let us watch how things will pan out. But Benue promises to be interesting! |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 1:44pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Svoboda: No they are not... But you see these fulani people... They know how to ginger Hausa people and other tribes to vote for them.. When it is time for election Fulani man will tell Hausa man that they are brothers and most vote in one Accord And As if they use Juju on them You will see Hausa people and other tribes following the lead of the Fulani man That is why Kashim Mustapha Shettima was wailing recently in the palace of a Fulani Emir that the North is not supportive of his ambition... Why .. because the Fulani people with the rivalry they have with Kanuri people have successfully motivated the other Northern Tribes against the Kanuri candidate Fulanis ( Who are minorities) are the real political power brokers in the North 1 Like |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by majole: 1:47pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: We are 2 weeks away 2 Likes |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Svoboda(m): 1:51pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Zelenskyy: Count kogi, kwara, plateau, benue out of aligning with fulani dominance. These states are unforgivably pro south. Buhari in cpc and anpp failed to win each of those states all the times he contested, how much more a weaker atiku v an abiola protege like BAT, with LP gnawing at the votes of pdp in that zone. 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Arafat2022: 1:54pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Continue deceiving your self Apc will never Success at any North Central state they're responsibles they knew what they're doing. PDP AtikuOkowaOrganizingForAction will Succeed to Rescues Redirect and Rebuild Nigeria 1 Share
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Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by qawiyy(m): 1:58pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: plz can you give me a hint about the run off will happen..like in which regions will the run off hold? |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by codedguy1(m): 2:13pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
naijapips04: So the gaffes, licking of mic and peeing all over the place that one emilokan is displaying all over the place will not galvanise the previously politically uninterested to come out to vote so as not to have a calamitous disaster like that rep them as president? Very myopic way of thinking. |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:25pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
qawiyy: In every region and state,a repeat election |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:26pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
majole: What is your final analysis |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:27pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
LegalWolf: Hon Patrick dakum lp guber candidate is strong, same as Chris gyang their senate candidate.apc and pdp are in crisis 1 Like |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 2:33pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Madridstar: You lie.the hatred for atiku and fulani will be translated to pdp just as buhari was at the receiving end... Suswan is the only pdp candidate that is sure of victory and atiku might win zone A because of him.but father alia,gemade,aondoakaa and udende will get votes for tinubu in that zone esp jechira clan... In zone B,akume will deliver tarka and gboko.labour will take makurdi.buruku and gwer will divide.atiku won't see votes in guma.maybe ayuu will give him some votes gboko. I'm zone C,morro is becoming unpopular.the apc candidate Daniel onjeh will win him.david mark daughter holds oturkpo while oju and obi hates pdp.Sam ode,young alhaji will bring votes 1 Like 1 Share |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by oladosu59996: 2:47pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
.did the op say apc will win those states?.did the op say apc will win those states?... |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Obaaderemi2: 2:51pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
HIGHESTPOPORI:Anybody who doesn't support your useless candidate is an urchin. You are the real urchin. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zulum500: 3:01pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: Simple analysis... Bro stop quoting that chinedu 😁 |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by qawiyy(m): 3:02pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1:wow! so Obi/lp will likely lose if he qualifies for the run off |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Northernblood8(m): 3:03pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Zelenskyy: Una no get sense aswear Which people do you think will be controlling the presidency if Tinubu wins? Do you think that he will know his left from his right? Foolish people still think that President and presidency are the same. Look at what we suffered under Bulhari because the Buffon doesn't even know where he is and yet you idiots still want to sustain same structure that put us in this mess. 1 Like |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Aremwayne: 3:09pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Zulum500:Lol which of the makurdi people are rooting for Tinubu ? Una go just dey lie anyhow 😂😂😂 2 Likes |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Madridstar(m): 4:34pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1:lol.. for your mind, we are still in the era of "he will deliver" nobody is delivering any state or LG for anybody. people are voting their choice, that's the sanitazation going on tey tey. If it's by an individual delivering a state, then labour party won't win anything. We have gone past delivering a state. We move. 2 Likes |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Madridstar(m): 4:35pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
LegalWolf:yes, that was before benue knew ortom don't have sense. |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by ibechris(m): 4:39pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
APC cannot get 10% in Abuja...I am very serious about this. 2 Likes 1 Share |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by MyMouth(m): 4:42pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1:Now, this is a more realistic prediction, I have said it here over and over again that LP may most likely win plateau and Benue, but u see other states in the north central apart from nassarawa, na APC get them. Nassarawa is a little bit dicey. It's going to be a three horse race B/w APC, LP, and PDP. The only wahala for APC is this ongoing hardship brought about by scarcity of naira and fuel. I hope it is taken care of before the polls. |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 5:45pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Northernblood8: Your Ashawo Mama nor get aswear Go Call your family members foolish People You are a dirty idiot for replying my comment with insults Kwassia |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Digitron: 5:45pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: The flaw in your analysis is that base your analysis on one thing "PARTY STRUCTURE". There are three factors working against BAT. 1. The poor performance of APC generally. 2. TInubu's consistent gaffes. 3. His perception in the core north as a fake Muslim after his inability to recite some fundamental parts of the Holy Quoran in Kaduna. So, it is difficult to sell BAT to common voters who are not party stakeholders. As a strategist, let me take do a bit of numerical analysis, if you look at 2019 presidential election in Niger, Buhari scored 618,000 votes and Atiku scored 218,000 votes. Now, let look at the LIKELY groups that made up the Numbers, For Buhari 600k voters, his voters are mostly from a. Party Faithfuls (200k) b. Those who see Buhari as pro-poor, incorruptible and the best candidate on the balot (100K) c. Religious and Ethnic sentiments (300K) For Atiku's 200k, his voters are mostly from a. THose who believe in the Atiku brand - 50k b. Anti-APC Sentiments - 50k c. Christian sentiments - 50k d. Non-natives- 50k To make my analysis easier, let us assume that the number of voters will be the same in 2023. Looking at the Buhari's Votes. a. Tinubu will take the first 200k, which is party faithful. b. Kwankwanso and Obi will share the second group, (Kwankwanso will take 70k, Obi 30k) c. Religious and ethnic sentiments group will go to Atiku and Kwankwaso (Atiku 250k, Kwankwaso 50k) For the Atiku Votes. Atiku will maintain the first group (those who believe in his brand)- 50k Kwankwanso/obi/atiku will share the second group (Anti-APC group) - Kwankwanso 10k, Obi 10k and Atiku 30k. Obi will Take the Christain sentiments- 50k Obi will take the Non-natives -50k Summarily, I am looking at Atiku 330k Votes. TInubu 200k Votes Obi 140K Kwankwaso 130K Attached below is a result of the last LG election in Niger. Despite how flawed the election was, you could see how much votes NNPP and LP gathered. PDP did not participate 1 Share
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Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by kcnwaigbo: 5:46pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
kettykin:Oga what exactly happened in Lagos? Please educate me |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 5:49pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Svoboda: And the same Kogi State and Kwara State voted for Buhari ? Even if those states you mentioned will not vote for Atiku Abubakar, They will still not vote for Peter Obi....... They will rather chose to support Thïefnubu than Obi 1 Like |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 6:15pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: In 2 weeks time The Nigerian electorate will clear your doubts.. Shagari and Buhari won the NC narrowly and that feat would be repeated again The colossal failure of the current APC Government will make the NC electorate turn their backs on the leading southern candidate That same leading southern candidate is the architect of this failed government and he would not be rewarded with a 4 year mandate Obi is not a factor here because the North Central electorate know that he cannot win the upcoming General Elections Forget about the online and media hype surrounding Obi's candidacy He cannot win the presidential election because there are no polling stations Online The election results will expose the unnecessary hype surrounding Obi's candidacy... |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 6:30pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
MyMouth: Your last paragraph is too.the naira swap and fuel scarcity is bad for tinubu. For kogi,I think tinubu will find it difficult in kogi east.pdo is strong there but onoja and echocho will try for him.I think bello will make one of them gov |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Svoboda(m): 6:41pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Zelenskyy: Those states voted buhari when he came into the mainstream of the apc with the backing of the likes of tinubu and co. I am unashamedly pro Tinubu. |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 7:09pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Digitron: I like your analysis and scientific methodology. The poor performance and gaffes by tinubu will affect him among educated and enlightened neutrals and people in other parties.most of those that voted buhari and supported apc are still with tinubu but most of those that supported atiku are now with obi or kwankwaso.those that will vote tinubu are already determined to vote him no matter what.tinubu will find it difficult to get new voters in se ss but he will get in sw because of ethnicity and growing anger against north.in many northern rural areas wit illiterate voters,the party structure will easily sway new voters compared to other parties due to structure and reach... C) which is inability to recite the Qur'an is exaggerated.it is a minor factor afterall atiku also cannot recite it and atiku is viewed as a liberal Muslim.the mm ticket is attractive to core or radical muslims.shettima fanaticism makes up for this.. While tinubu will have problem getting new voters,fortunately those new voters are not going to obe candidate but three which waters down everything. Talking of niger state,I agree with you.while I do not base my analysis mainly on party structure and it is getting deemphasized,it will still play a role esp in rural areas.I'll come to that later... I agree with party faithfuls but I do not agree that those who perceive him in b are those who perceive him as poor and incorruptible.I think they are mostly what you call buharists.most of them are muslims and will rather support the next available radical Muslim which means kwankwaso first then tinubu and atiku.obi will gain few from this pool.it will be 40k,30k,20k,10k respectively. I think religious sentiments should be divided from ethnic sentiments and each has 150,000k.in religious sentiments,all available polls esp from Bantu and stears shows that muslims in nc prefer tinubu first before atiku and kwankwaso and niger Muslims are fanatical.so tinubu will take half which is 75,000...talking of ethnicity,none of the candidates is from niger.kwankwaso and atiku are fulanis and fulanis are micro minorities in niger.Nupes and gwaris are the largest tribes.obj defeated buhari here in 2003 which means ethnicity isn't a big factor.religion is a far bigger factor.but let us share the 150k each for the three muslims... You said non indigenes are 50,00) and all will go to obi.this is not true.many non indigenes are yorubas and most won't go obi.infact,others are northerners.except you mean southern settlers but let's give obi 25,000.not all Christians will vote obi.a few will vote atiku and Tinubu but let's give obi 90%... From that result sheet,apc still won and nnpp was second and you know nnpp is attractive to fanatic muslims like kano,katsina,bauchi,niger.again,that area is in suleja and suleja has many Christians.total votes was about 2000 and lp got 300 which is 12% which is low meaning if total votes was like 1000 lp will have like 100 or so and less is Muslim dominated areas...one,this shows that apc is still the dominant or preferred party with or without buhari on the ballot.there was a rerun election in magama and apc was excluded yet apc supported apga to win.this is where party structure is important. Theres nothing like atiku brand.he has no followers or core supporters like buhari or kwankwaso so I'll reduce it to 25,000... Final result will be tinubu 320,000 atiku 200,000 Obi 10,000, Kwankwaso 100,000 |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Digitron: 7:45pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
garfield1: Well, I think there are two assumptions which you made in your analysis which I diagree with. 1. First is that Tinubu is the first choice for Muslims in Niger before Atiku and Kwankwanso. I dont agree with this assumption. Anybody who is voting based on religious sentiment is likely going to be a fantatics and a there is no way a fantatics will see a Tinubu as a better Muslim to Atiku and Kwankwanso. 2. Those who voted Buhari will remain with APC. This is unlikely to happen. There is nothing exciting about Tinubu to help him keep the Buhari 600k votes. Again, if you check 2011, 2015, 2019 election, buhari has consistely gotten 600k in Niger even when he contested under CPC in 2011. So, there is no way Tinubu or APC will inherit the entire votes. Your reference to ObJ defeating buhari doesn't count because i dont consider all election conducted before 2015 as election |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by garfield1: 8:42pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Digitron: My brother,Bantu polls were very clear and explicit.it clearly showed that obi was preferred by at least 70% of Christians in nc.I believe you won't doubt this.it showed that tinubu was preferred by at least 50% of muslims and niger and nasarawa were the target areas.you can google it up again to aqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq1111qqq never said tinubu will retain buhari votes,it is not possible but he will retain at least half.the picture of a liberal atiku and an igbotic vp is displeasing to fanatics but a mm ticket esp a shettima from a perceived boko enclave is attractive.a highly pro north kwankwaso is also very attractive. Again,lg polls are the worst parameters.lg polls are usually written so leave it.let's use inec conducted polls to analyse.your analysis is best suited to nasarawa,kogi |
Re: How The North Central Will Vote(final Prediction) by Zelenskyy(m): 11:32pm On Feb 12, 2023 |
Svoboda: You are therefore unashamedly one of the many problems of Nigeria |
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