2023 GENERAL ELECTIONS: CAN PETER OBI WIN WITHOUT THE NORTH? - John Ogah

On 19 April 2003, President Olusegun Obasanjo of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), defeated his closest opponent -- Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) by over 11 million votes during the Presidential elections. Despite Buhari being backed up by most Northern states, Obasanjo won the elections at the end.

It was the fifth time after 1964, 1979, 1993 and 1999 that a General Election would be held as well as the first time after 15 years that elections were organized by a civilian government.

The total votes counted for Olusegun Obasanjo was 24,456,140 superceding Muhammadu Buhari's total vote of 12,710,022. Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu [All Progressives Grand Alliance], Jim Nwobodo [United Nigeria People's Party] and Gani Fawehinmi of the National Conscience Party each had a total of 1,297,445, 169,609 and 161,333 respectively.

The Northern region of Nigeria has always been seen by many as a Power Bloc of Nigeria's General Elections. The North is so strategic that it seems totally impossible to win an election without them being involved. Those from the North vying for the Presidential office have always considered it an advantage and Electoral candidates from the South have no other option than to woo them to ensure they win. However, can a Southern Presidential candidate win elections without the help of the North? For a Presidential candidate like Peter Obi, can he get to Aso Villa without driving his car through the North? The answer is dependent on who is involved and what is involved.

In the 2003 General Elections, Olusegun Obasanjo won almost the entire south-eastern states by comfortably beating Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu of the All Progressives Grand Alliance in his own backyard. With the 'bloody' role Obasanjo played during the civil war against the Igbos and his brutal decision by using the military to clear out an entire village in Bayelsa state --- because 12 policemen were killed ---- during his first four years in power among others, this was enough reason for the South - Eastern states to turn their backs on Obasanjo during the 2003 Elections and choose their Messiah in Ojukwu.

However, it seemed most of the South-Eastern states turned a blind eye on Obasanjo's actions and went ahead to pick him over Ojukwu who belonged to them. One major factor for this was that the Igbo elite united with the PDP because of the national appeal they had that time, as the party were able to integrate and involve the south-east at the centre of national politics. Due to this, it was easier for Obasanjo to get massive votes from the south-east.

For instance, "In Anambra, Obasanjo had 466,866 votes which represented 54 percent of the entire count while Ojukwu had 279,378 – 34 percent of the total tally. In Abia, Obasanjo had 386,748 votes (51.7 percent) while Ojukwu had 260,899 votes (34.9 percent). In Ebonyi, Obasanjo had 752,823 votes (94.5 percent) but Ojukwu polled only 20,525 votes (02.6 percent) within the same range as Muhammadu Buhari who had 16,308 votes in the state. In Enugu, Obasanjo had 897,721 votes (79.7 percent) while Ojukwu had 177,050 votes (15.7 percent). And in Imo, Obasanjo polled 656,861 votes (64.6 percent), but Ojukwu had 281,114 votes (27.7 percent)." [Source: The Cable] - 1

Muhammadu Buhari defeated Obasanjo in most northern states which were Zamfara, Yobe, Sokoto, Bauchi, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Gombe, Borno and Bauchi. The remaining few Northern states as well as the Middle Belt gave Obasanjo the votes he needed which were Taraba, Niger, Nasawara, Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Plateau, Kaduna, and Adamawa. This was as a result of the high numbers of Northen Christains which lived there.

Though Obasanjo and his party were the clear favourites, he was accused of manipulating the ballot with local and international observers citing Electoral rigging. Nevertheless, if cases of rigging were involved, he could not rig as much in the North as he did in other places.

Obasanjo ensured he put the entire Middle Belt and Southern states in his pocket and consolidated on the southern region of the North occupied by Northern Christains. So, even if he could not get the North he had to ensure that his grip on places outside the North was 'very' strong enough to deliver him the votes he needed and convince the southern regions in the North.

Even Buhari with the North in his pocket could not win elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011 till he needed the help of Ahmed Bola Tinubu who delivered the votes he needed from the South. A confirmation that the North alone cannot win elections for you, it can only boost your chances of winning.

In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party won the Presidential elections with a total vote of 22,495,187 (58.87%) defeating his closet rival, Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) who had a total vote of 12,214,853 (31.97%). [Source: Electoral Geography 2.0] - 2

Apart from Osun State, the remaining five South-Western states of Nigeria gave their votes to Jonathan after he pocketed all the votes of the South East and South-South states. Up North and the Middle Belt, Jonathan could only secure votes from 7 Northern states leaving Buhari to have almost all the Northern states pitching their tent with him. Yet, this did not stop Jonathan from going ahead to win the 2011 General Elections.

For Peter Obi, his case is quite different. He comes from a region that other parts of the country are having a difficult time to trust. First, because of the civil war they plunged Nigeria into, the activities of the indigenous people of Biafra (IPOB), cases of past political leaders there who were involved in deep corruption cases among others. There have always been this battle between the Northerners and the Igbos especially with the bloodbath arising from intentional and reprisal attacks on each other before and during the civil war and has continued to spill over the years.

Religious bias might be one major bias that might play out against Peter Obi as the Northerners go to the poll on Saturday. However, times are changing. Individuals in the North are beginning to see beyond religious divides in order to ensure that the next leader they pick will and can save them from their troubles and give them the better Nigeria they had always wished for.

However, with Atiku Abubaker and Rabiu Kwankwaso who are sons of the Northern soil as well as Kashim Shettima, Ahmed Bola Tinubu's running mate, it is going to be very hard for Peter Obi as the bread will first have to be shared among the sons before strangers can partake out of it.

In ensuring this does not affect him, Peter Obi will have to battle Ahmed Bola Tinubu to ensure that he replicate the victory of Obasanjo and Jonathan in 2003 and 2011 respectively. They were able to lock the Southern states and the Middle Belt in their pockets while they focused on how to get part of the Southern regions of the North.

Can Peter Obi win without the North? He needs the North but does not have to put all his efforts only on the North. He needs Nigeria.

©John Ogah'23

John Ogah is a published author. He is also a communicator and writing coach who has helped individuals in the skill of writing, helping them become proficient and professional writers. He is the Editor of MacNews.



1.https://www.thecable.ng/in-2003-south-east-voted-for-obasanjo-against-ojukwu-why/amp

2.https://www.electoralgeography.com/new/en/countries/n/nigeria/nigeria-presidential-election-2003.html

Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

He can win if Twitter, Nairaland, TikTok and Instagram votes are added.


That’s the only way he can win without the North

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Having four strong contestants instead of the usual two makes it even easier

The north will vote for Peter OBI/Datti massively

This election is the most unpredictable election in the history of Nigeria.. Reminds me Argentina Vs France world cup final. Interesting times ahead. This goes to show how we have evolved as a nation.

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

That's not true. Jonathan got at least 25% in all the Northern States except three. Jonathan got more than 50% in many Northern States, courtesy of power of incumbency and structure, which the LP lacks. And in 2015, with the marriage between the North and South-West (the two powerhouses of voters), Jonathan couldn't make it despite the incumbency power.

Nothing is impossible!

When the people have had enough of the suffering that the ruling party has brought on them in the last seven years they'll think twice.

Unfortunately, we still play politics of ethnicity and religion in this country!

Dem born am??

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Clown so only south east and few in South South will make obi president😂

malware:


That's not true. Jonathan got at least 25% in all the Northern States except three. Jonathan got more than 50% in many Northern States, courtesy of power of incumbency and structure, which the LP lacks. And in 2015, with the marriage between the North and South-West (the two powerhouses of voters), Jonathan couldn't make it despite the incumbency power.

The attached below is the picture of Jonathan's stronghold..

Meanwhile, why are you seeing yourself as a wife northerners ?

That they conquered you in everything including taking your land (Ilorin) shouldn't be a reason why you should also give them chance to conquer your mentality...

Smh...

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Jonathan only won because the south voted him en masse.

malware:


That's not true. Jonathan got at least 25% in all the Northern States except three. Jonathan got more than 50% in many Northern States, courtesy of power of incumbency and structure, which the LP lacks. And in 2015, with the marriage between the North and South-West (the two powerhouses of voters), Jonathan couldn't make it despite the incumbency power.

These were the days where governors write results. I bet you, the winner won't gather up to 10m votes.

Ezeama400:


The attached below is the picture of Jonathan's stronghold..

Meanwhile, why are you seeing yourself as a wife northerners ?

That they conquered you in everything including taking your land (Ilorin) shouldn't be a reason why you should also give them chance to conquer your mentality...

Smh...

I am a Northerner sir!

fortunateme:

These were the days where governors write results. I bet you, the winner won't gather up to 10m votes.

We shall see.

Ezeama400:


The attached below is the picture of Jonathan's stronghold..

Meanwhile, why are you seeing yourself as a wife northerners ?

That they conquered you in everything including taking your land (Ilorin) shouldn't be a reason why you should also give them chance to conquer your mentality...

Smh...

Them dey use landmass instead of the amount of voters.

malware:


I am a Northerner sir!

And you had to gut to insult Yoruba race by calling them your wife?

computer0810:


Clown so only south east and few in South South will make obi president😂

Urchin Jonathan won without the north. If you don't like it hang yourself.

Ezeama400:


And you had to gut to insult Yoruba race by calling them your wife?

I did not call them that, remove the emotional cap on your head and replace it with a thinking cap.

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Jonathan won the SW remember

Ezeama400:


The attached below is the picture of Jonathan's stronghold..

Meanwhile, why are you seeing yourself as a wife northerners ?

That they conquered you in everything including taking your land (Ilorin) shouldn't be a reason why you should also give them chance to conquer your mentality...

Smh...

Osu Emeka with no sense
Let's see how your tin god will win with your backward mentality

malware:


I did not call them that, remove the emotional cap on your head and replace it with a thinking cap.

He's ye.ebo
Don't expect less

Urchinpainer:


Urchin Jonathan won without the north. If you don't like it hang yourself.

Na small thing dey make ppl hang themselves for ur family 😂😂 dey take am easy untop wetin u no go gain anything untop

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Jonathan had 95% of SW votes in 2011.
In 2015 he got only 45% of SW votes and lost.

For Obi to win without the north, he needs at least 80% of SW votes.

renderme:


Jonathan had 95% of SW votes in 2011.
In 2015 he got only 45% of SW votes and lost.

For Obi to win without the north, he needs at least 80% of SW votes.

Wrong. What he needs is 25% from each south west state and nothing more.
2011 there were two main contenders, in this election they are three. The beautiful bride is this election is North Central and thanks to Bandits Obi is the dominant force in North Central.

renderme:


Jonathan had 95% of SW votes in 2011.
In 2015 he got only 45% of SW votes and lost.

For Obi to win without the north, he needs at least 80% of SW votes.

False, he won by about 60%
GEJ PMB RIBADU
Ekiti 51.56% 1.03% 44.67%
LAG 65.90% 9.77% 21.96%
OG 56.86% 3.25% 36.70%
OND 79.57% 2.44% 15.25%
OSU 36.75% 1.36% 58.46%
OYO 56.14% 10.70% 29.21%

Zincfingers:

Jonathan won the SW remember

This Time Tinubu is winning the South West, Automatically, the vote is not going to Atiku.

What Obi needs in South West is 25% in each state.

Digitron:


False, he won by about 60%
GEJ PMB RIBADU
Ekiti 51.56% 1.03% 44.67%
LAG 65.90% 9.77% 21.96%
OG 56.86% 3.25% 36.70%
OND 79.57% 2.44% 15.25%
OSU 36.75% 1.36% 58.46%
OYO 56.14% 10.70% 29.21%

what is this? percentages in each state? State populations are not equal. Here are the results from reuters.

Take the totals of all votes in the 6 SW states, add them. Then take the totals that pdp won in the 6 states, add them and get the percentage. Its closer to 95% than it is to 60% . Jonathan won the SW by a landslide.

Urchinpainer:
Jonathan won without the north, Obi will do same.

Jonathan contested under pdp that hav many governors u see the difference

I'm seeing obi placing itself second at most 😎

Never ....


But...............

Chinonye2022:
Jonathan contested under pdp that hav many governors u see the difference

If the so called Governors are so much influencial they would not be disturbing our peace because of new monetary policy.