₦airaland Forum

iLegendd:
Part 4

My Prompt:

Comparing all 4, Naira, BTC, Gold and silver, rank them on percentage lost and percentage gain from 1940 to 2024 and which is the best invest and the worst investment to hold.

Reply:

To compare the Naira, Bitcoin (BTC), Gold, and Silver in terms of their percentage gain or loss from 1940 to 2024, we need to break down each asset’s historical performance and analyze its overall change over time. This will give us insight into which asset has been the best or worst investment during this time frame.

1. Nigerian Naira (₦)

The Naira was introduced in 1973, replacing the Nigerian pound. Since then, the Naira has experienced significant depreciation due to inflation, poor economic policies, and devaluations by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Performance:

1940-1973: Before the Naira, the Nigerian pound was relatively stable but depreciated towards the end due to economic challenges.

1973-2024: From its introduction in 1973 at ₦0.66 per $1 to ₦1,000 per $1 or higher by 2024 (depending on the parallel market rate), the Naira has experienced dramatic devaluation.

Approximate Percentage Loss:

Naira’s depreciation is over 99% in value against the U.S. dollar from 1973 to 2024.

2. Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin was introduced in 2009 and started with no intrinsic value. Since then, BTC has gone through extreme volatility but has risen significantly, making it one of the best-performing assets in history.

Performance:

2009: Price started at less than $0.01 per BTC.
2024: As of 2024, Bitcoin trades between $30,000 and $40,000 per BTC.

Approximate Percentage Gain:

From $0.01 to $30,000 or higher is a gain of more than 300,000,000%.

They used old rate of 30k, so if we use current rate of 68-70k, the percentage doubles. Damn!!!

3. Gold

Gold has been a store of value for centuries and was tied to the U.S. dollar under the Bretton Woods system. After the gold standard was abandoned, gold prices became free-floating and have steadily increased, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

Performance:

1940s: Gold was priced at $35 per ounce.
2024: Gold trades around $1,800-$2,000 per ounce.

Approximate Percentage Gain:

From $35 to $1,800, gold has seen a gain of around 5,000% from 1940 to 2024.

4. Silver

Silver, like gold, has been used both as an investment and in industrial applications. Its price has fluctuated more dramatically due to demand for its use in industries such as electronics and renewable energy.

Performance:

1940s: Silver was priced at around $0.70 - $0.90 per ounce.

2024: Silver trades around $25-30 per ounce.

Approximate Percentage Gain:

From $0.70 to $25, silver has seen a gain of about 3,500% from 1940 to 2024.

---

Ranking Based on Percentage Gain/Loss (1940-2024):

1. Bitcoin (BTC): Gain of over 300,000,000% (the best-performing asset by a huge margin).
2. Gold: Gain of around 5,000%.
3. Silver: Gain of around 3,500%.
4. Naira: Loss of over 99% (the worst-performing asset).

Best and Worst Investments (1940-2024):

Best Investment: Bitcoin (BTC) – Bitcoin’s unprecedented rise from almost zero to tens of thousands of dollars per coin makes it the best investment by far, despite its volatility.

Worst Investment: Nigerian Naira – The Naira has suffered extreme devaluation, making it the worst investment. Its purchasing power has been eroded by inflation, currency devaluation, and poor economic policies over the years.


Conclusion:

Bitcoin is the standout winner, even with its volatility, due to its astronomical percentage gain.

Gold and silver have both performed well, with gold slightly outperforming silver in percentage gains. These metals are traditional stores of value and have maintained their purchasing power over time.

The Naira has been the worst investment due to its severe loss in value, making it a poor store of wealth in the long term.

For a long-term investor looking to preserve or grow wealth, Bitcoin, gold, and silver have been far better choices than holding cash in Naira.

However, each asset has different risk profiles and market dynamics, with Bitcoin being highly speculative and volatile, while gold and silver are considered more stable but slower-growing stores of value.


For part 5, about comparing GLE-BOSS based on percentage gain since 1940, click here https://www.nairaland.com/6318352/crypto-currency-investors-thread/3955#132549132

Please, how do we invest in these precious metals (gold and silver), are we to buy stocks from companies that deal with these metals?

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Taystee1:
Please, how do we invest in these precious metals (gold and silver), are we to buy stocks from companies that deal with these metals?

I doubt quoting everything is a good idea.

Naira will appreciate soon either 1400 or 1300

Currently trading between 1715.
This is feasible in the next 6 months

Nigeria is great

Because Nigeria joins BRICS ? De play

Alexas58:
Naira will appreciate soon either 1400 or 1300

Currently trading between 1715.
This is feasible in the next 6 months

Nigeria is great

Regardless , I think we’re still early ..

chival10:
Because Nigeria joins BRICS ? De play

You must be a mad man!


Don’t ever quote me again
Useless fellow

It took $Sui 3 months to deliver on its 5.3 magic. As I said, I use three numbers. Either 3, 5 or 5.3. It's not 100%, but 80-90%.

In this Sui calculation, I used the 5 and 5.3 and they gave me similar values but 5 gave a more accurate answer, which is $2.35 while Sui hit $2.36. So, if your sell order was $2.35, you would've sold and made profit.

The reason I'm bringing this up is for you to know that some coins might take 3 months to hit it. For me, I prefer those ones that can achieve it within a day, a week or max a month.

So, it's just an information that some can take 3-6 months. Your patience or impatience determines your outcome. If you master this 5.3 system, you'll begin to build patience and trade less with a target that give 80-90% accuracy.

Doing it with BTC, starting from Oct. at 59k bottom x 3, it gave me 177k. That is high o and I don't believe it, but nothing is impossible.

What about ETH? Using Oktoba as my point of calculation, 5.3 told me it might hit 12k.

In summary, 5.3 system = the patience builder and the future seer. It makes you have patience while feeling as if you've seen the future.

Now, someone would say, "You always calculate going up, but what about going down?"

BTC hit ≈ 74k this year, right?

Divide it by 3 and you'll get 25.6k ≈ 26k.

ETH hit 4k this year and if you divide it by 3, you get 1.3k ≈ 1.4k.

So, if COVID-19 kind of crash happens, BTC will kiss 26k and ETH kiss 1.3-1.4k. If this happens, a lot of longs will be liquidated and exchanges will make billions. I'm not saying it'll happen, but be prepared for any kind of black swan catastrophe. I'm optimistic it won't happen, but I'm open for it to happen.

There is no way World War III or BRICS vs G 7 war would start in full swing and atomic bomb dropped that BTC won't go down to 26k before going back up within a week. It's a shock crash.

GRACEGLORY:
The 67K is a good buy area. It's a buy signal

Hope you took the advise.


Lest you forget: "I'm not a gambler."

OPEN LETTER TO THE FOUL-MOUTHED ON THIS THREAD

If you call someone foul-mouthed, it means you disapprove of them because they use unpleasant language or say things that are really disrespectful.

Being foul-mouthed reflect ignorance or mostly lack of education. Putting down others makes the foul-mouthed feel powerful somewhat, but in reality behind their screen and within themselves they are weak and helpless, and mostly full of hurts, rather than healing, they bleed on everyone else.

When you encounter a foul-mouthed just ignore them, this shows that their opinion is irrelevant. It's the worst insult you can return to them. They seek a reaction from you to boost their self-esteem.Don't give it to them.

Resistance at 68k is weak. BTC is now more likely to go up to the next major resistance at 74k

Halastershang:
Resistance at 68k is weak. BTC is now more likely to go up to the next major resistance at 74k

I see a huge dump on the chart soon. Start taking profit because, you'll b very lucky to see $70k btc in this pump.

Okay okay, @Halastershang and @Ogogorofreak, would you advise that we sleep or remain awake?🙇‍♂️

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I made this post in February. Now, get ready!

6-in-1strategies I use for opportunistic trades the most.

1. The 5 green or 5 red day (for buy/sell)
2. Cascading system — multiple accounts (for buy/sell)
3. Even number system (for buy/sell)
4. The 5.3 system (for buy/sell)
5. The 3 wise boxes (for buy/sell)
6. Patience

Bonus: Chart, news, tokenomics, market movement voice alert, indicators, BTC cycle, and a few others (to know the direction and position of the coin/market). Nothing much.

Out of the 5 above, which one have you not heard of? Which have you heard of, but don't understand?

Halastershang:
Resistance at 68k is weak. BTC is now more likely to go up to the next major resistance at 74k

I wouldn't say that ... It's been tested more in the last 48.

iLegendd:
6-in-1strategies I use for opportunistic trades the most.

1. The 5 green or 5 red day (for buy/sell)
2. Cascading system — multiple accounts (for buy/sell)
3. Even number system (for buy/sell)
4. The 5.3 system (for buy/sell)
5. The 3 wise boxes (for buy/sell)
6. Patience

Bonus: Chart, news, tokenomics, market movement voice alert, indicators, BTC cycle, and a few others (to know the direction and position of the coin/market). Nothing much.

Out of the 5 above, which one have you not heard of? Which have you heard of, but don't understand?

2 and 3. Please shed more light on them.

Püsşies!

U no like person analysis
Person say no dey quote me

If you seee my post, avoid am!

U go Dey behave like slowpoke wey dey on ovulation!

My posts dey trigger ur horniness


Before you signed up to be a trader!

Did you expect someone to help you make money in the market!

If you have mind come for me…
I’ll drag you like tiger generator!

Let it be known that I’m troublesome

EmmyPers:
Okay okay, @Halastershang and @Ogogorofreak, would you advise that we sleep or remain awake?🙇‍♂️

I'd suggest that we wait for a confirmed break above 68k and that should take about two days.

E3d2:
I wouldn't say that ... It's been tested more in the last 48.

yes that's correct but the recent bounce off the 65k support shows that 65k is a strong support and like you said 68k has been tested a couple of times which makes me believe that it is getting weaker with every retest

JigsawKillah:
2 and 3. Please shed more light on them.

It's about having multiple accounts and money ready in them. Number 3 is buying at the right time, but placing your order with an even number. If BTC is at 69k, you wait for 70k, which is an even number.

Foreseeing BTC Top Price, Fake-Out Price and Bottom Price + Percentages

I have done this calculation before manually on Tradingview and it took days of pains, but was worth it. Today, I decided to use ChatGPT and I asked it this:

What is the top price of every BTC bull market, the bottom, the percentage and price range crashes in bear market and the ones that happened inside a bull market.

What do I want to do with the answer?

1. I want to know the top price of every bullrun and its bottom price and the percentage it pumped/fell to.
2. I want to know the semi-top of every bullrun before a devastating fake-out crash to scare weak hands and the percentage/price it pumped or fell to.
3. Then, I want to divide the final peak price of each bullrun by 5.3 and also, the semi-peak of the bullrun before the fake-out by 3.

Below is what I got and I'll explain, then add the info I have in mind. Trust me, you'll learn a lot from this short post.

1. First Bitcoin Bull Market (2011)

Top Price: ~$31 (June 2011)
Bottom Price: ~$2 (November 2011)

Bull Market Rise: ~1,450% increase.
Bear Market Crash: ~93% drop from the top.

Bull Fake-out Semi-Top: ~$16 (Early 2011) before crashing to ~$9.
Correction: ~50% crash (from $16 to $9).

Calculations:

Top ÷ 5.3:
31 ÷ 5.3 = 5.85
Semi-Top ÷ 3:
16 ÷ 3 = 5.33

Another simple, but important calculation is coming, that focuses on bull market correction, but continue reading.

2. Second Bitcoin Bull Market (2013)

Top Price: ~$1,150 (December 2013)
Bottom Price: ~$170 (January 2015)

Bull Market Rise: ~8,750% increase.
Bear Market Crash: ~85% drop from the top.

Bull Fake-out Semi-Top: ~$266 (April 2013) before crashing to ~$67.
Correction: ~75% crash (from $266 to $67).

Calculations:

Top ÷ 5.3:
1,150 ÷ 5.3 = 216.98
Semi-Top ÷ 3:
266 ÷ 3 = 88.67

Bull Market Corrections: During the bull run from $13 to $1,150, there was a 75% correction in April 2013, from ~$266 down to ~$67.

3. Third Bitcoin Bull Market (2017)

Top Price: ~$19,800 (December 2017)
Bottom Price: ~$3,150 (December 2018)

Bull Market Rise: ~9,800% increase.
Bear Market Crash: ~84% drop from the top.

Bull Fake-out Semi-Top: ~$5,000 (September 2017) before crashing to ~$3,000.
Correction: ~40% crash (from $5,000 to $3,000).

Calculations:

Top ÷ 5.3:
19,800 ÷ 5.3 = 3,735.85
Semi-Top ÷ 3:
5,000 ÷ 3 = 1,666.67

Bull Market Corrections: A notable correction of 40% occurred in September 2017 when Bitcoin dropped from ~$5,000 to ~$3,000 before continuing its rally.

4. Fourth Bitcoin Bull Market (2021)

Top Price: ~$69,000 (November 2021)

Bottom Price: ~$15,500 (November 2022)
Bull Market Rise: ~1,400% increase.

Bear Market Crash: ~77% drop from the top.
Bull Fake-out Semi-Top: ~$64,800 (April 2021) before crashing to ~$29,000.
Correction: ~55% crash (from $64,800 to $29,000).

Calculations:

Top ÷ 5.3:
69,000 ÷ 5.3 = 13,018.87

Semi-Top ÷ 3:
64,800 ÷ 3 = 21,600

Bull Market Corrections: Bitcoin experienced a 53-55% correction from April to July 2021, dropping from $64,800 to ~$29,000 before bouncing back to the final peak in November 2021.
---
During most bull markets, Bitcoin typically faces 40-75% corrections within the run. These crashes shake out leveraged traders and often create opportunities for long-term holders.

Once the bull market peaks, the bear market that follows often sees 80-90% declines from the all-time high. However, Bitcoin has historically recovered, and after each bear market, the next bull market top has always exceeded the previous peak.

Summary of Bull Market Tops, Bottoms, and Fake-out Crashes

1. First Bull Market (2011):

Top: $31, Bottom: $2, Fake-out: $16 (50% fake out correction).

2. Second Bull Market (2013):

Top: $1,150, Bottom: $170, Fake-out: $266 (75% fake out correction).

3. Third Bull Market (2017):

Top: $19,800, Bottom: $3,150, Fake-out: $5,000 (40% fake out correction).

4. Fourth Bull Market (2021):

Top: $69,000, Bottom: $15,500, Fake-out: $64,800 (55% fake out correction).

---

Divisions of Final Peaks and Semi-Peaks

2011 Bull Market:

Final Peak: $31 ÷ 5.3 = $5.85
Semi-Peak: $16 ÷ 3 = $5.33

2013 Bull Market:

Final Peak: $1,150 ÷ 5.3 = $216.98
Semi-Peak: $266 ÷ 3 = $88.67

2017 Bull Market:

Final Peak: $19,800 ÷ 5.3 = $3,735.85
Semi-Peak: $5,000 ÷ 3 = $1,666.67

2021 Bull Market:

Final Peak: $69,000 ÷ 5.3 = $13,018.87
Semi-Peak: $64,800 ÷ 3 = $21,600

Now, I'll explain what I have in mind.

5. Fifth Bitcoin Bull Market (2025) coming...

Typing...

Continuation

We want to do 3 different calculations

1. Final top to bottom price with 5.3
2. Bull market fake-out top to bottom with 3
3. Addition of 2 or 2k five times or additional of 4 or 4k two times. (This means if price is 21k after calculation, add 2k to it 5 times and you'll get 21k + 2k = 23k, 25k, 27k, 29k 31k. Or you add 4k twice and you'll get 21k + 4k = 25k. Then again, 25k + 4k = 29k).

So, let's get started. What this calculation does is to give you an idea where the bull run fake out dump will get to and the range you should set your buy order.

As said in my main post, you use 5.3 for the top and 3 for the semi-top.

1. In 2011, the semi-top in the bullrun before the fake-out was $16 and dumped to 9. So, from here, how do you calculate where the dump will hit before the main pump to the final top takes place.

We divide the value by 3.

16/3 = 5.3.

So, set your buy order at 5.3. What if the manipulators know that everyone knows about this 5.3 magic number? Then they'll use option 3 above by adding 2 (5 times) to 5.3 to get 7.3, 9.3, 11.3, 13.3 and 15.3 or by adding 4 (2 times) to 5.3 to get 9.3 and 13.3.

In the 2011 bullrun fake-out dump, it's from $16 to $9. If you had set your buy orders at 5.3, 7.3, 9.3, 11.3 13.3 and 15.3, four of your orders would've entered. Since you already know it's a 40-75% dump, you'll probably ignore 15.3, 13.3 and even 11.3 and set your order at 9.3, 7.3 and 5.3.

What about using the main top for that year to find the bottom?

The main top of 2011 was $31. In this case, you divide it by 5.3 instead of 3 (which is used for semi-top fake-out) and you'll get 31/5.3 = $5.8.

Sadly, it dumped fro 31 to $2 (losing extra $3.8 from our 5.8 answer). With this, we can also do a reverse subtraction of 2 into 5 place to get 3.8, 1.8, 0.2, etc. or 4 into 2 places to get 1.8 and co.

I hope I have not confused you.

2. In 2013 bull run, which people consider the official one, not the one of 2011, the fake-out top was from $266 to $67.

So, when the price was at 266 and started dumping, where would you have set your buy orders?

266/3 = $88. Your order should've been at $88 or 90, 92, 94, 96 and 98. Or using +4, 92 and 96. We ended up hitting 67. If we had done downward calculations from 88, we would've gotten 86, 84, 82, 80 and 78. Or 84 and 80. Buying at these levels wouldn't have been a bad timing because it went down to 67, which we can approximate to $70.

The main top of 2013 was $1150 and bottom $170. In this case, you divide it by 5.3 instead of 3. So, 1150/5.3 = $216. If you do the forward +2 five times or +4 four time or backward of it, you'll still be a a range of $170 bottomed. There is no much difference between 200 and 170.

3. In 2017 bull run, the fake-out top was from $5000 to $3000. Using 3, we'll have 5000/3 = 1,666.

Note: when the value is in thousand, you don't add 2 or 4, but 2k (5 times) or 4k (twice).

Adding 2k to 1,666, we have 3600, etc. Adding for 4k to 1,666, we get a number bigger than the semi-top, so it's invalid.

Therefore, ≈ 1.7k and 3.6k are the best options and luckily, it went to 3k from 5k and that means your 3.6k order would've executed.

What about the top of 2017? It was 19800 and bottomed at 3150. Let's calculate the potential bottom from the top.

19800/5.3 = 3735. Did you notice it's withing the 3k range just like the actual bottom. If you had added 2k, you would gotten 5.7k. Or if you had subtracted, you would've gotten 1.7k.

If your orders were those three, two of them would've executed for you.

I hope you're following the calculation.

4. In 2021 bull run, the fake-out top was from $64800 to $29000. Using 3, we'll have 64800/3 = 21600.

If we do the 2k or 4k addition, we'll get 21.6k+2 = 23.6k, 25.6k, 27.6k, 29.6k 31.6k. or +4 and we'll get 25.6k and 29.6k. So, if you had set trades in all of those numbers, two would've executed — the 29.6k and 31.6k.

What about the main top of 69k to 15.5k. How would you have known we would get to 15.5k from 69k?

69000/5.3 = 13k. Now, do your 2k and 4k addition or subtraction and you'll get the range to see your orders. That would be 15k, 17k, 19k, 21k, and 23k. Or if you did the 4k addition, it'd be 17k and 21k.

If you had set your spot and long trades in this range in 2022, you would've been smiling by now.

What about reduction from 13k answer? We would have gotten 11k, 9k and down we go to 3k. In this scenario, you would've kept money for as low as 3k, but you would've set your order from 13k or 9k to 23k.

5. What about 2024 bullrun? Our current semi-top, fake-out top is 74k while bottom at 48k and that would be 74000/5.3 and we'll get 24.66k ≈ 24.7k. So, we have 24.7k + 2k = 26.7k, 28.7k, 30.7k, 32.7k, 34.7k. what about +4k? We would have 28.7k and 32.7k

Sadly, our current bottom from 74k is 48k. We need to lose 13k from 48k to hit at least one of the price range or 23k from 48k to hit 24k lowest.

With this, while being optimistic of the bullrun, there is still a big danger underneath, so don't be too carried away yet, but be optimistic while preparing for the worst.

Maybe, this dump is as shallow as 2017 or 2011 where 16/3 gave us $5.3, but it only stopped at $9.

From 16 to 9 is 43.75% dump ≈ 50%.
From 74k to 48k is 35.14% dump ≈ 40%.

Let's half it and see.

16/2 = 8, but we stopped at 9. (1 more missing to make it half).
74k/2 = 37k, but we stopped at 48k (11k missing to make it at least half).

Or, let me just do the calculation for all of them and see

2011: From 16 to 9 is a 43.75% fake-out dump.
16/2 = 8 (it bottomed at 9 = almost broke even)

2013: From 266 to 67 is a 74.81% fake-out dump.
266/2 = 133 (it bottomed at 67 = fantastic dump)

2017: From 5,000 to 3,000 is a 40% fake-out dump.
5000/2 = 2500 (it bottomed at 3k = almost broke even)

2021: From 64,800 to 29,000 is a 55.25% fake-out dump.
64800/2 = 32400 (it bottomed at 29k = broke even)

2024/2025: From 74,000 to 48,000 is a 35.14% fake-out dump.
74000/2 = 37000 (it bottomed at 48k = couldn't break even, so we have to be careful).

Minimum bull market dump is 40% and max 75%, but 2025 bull did only 35%. Where is the remaining 5% or 40%? Maybe, let's blame ETF. If so, then the bottom is in, else we need the remaining % or at least, break even at 37k or worse, 44k.

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Alexas58:
You must be a mad man!


Don’t ever quote me again
Useless fellow

Wetin bring insults for the response he gave u, shey you never take ur meds?

Superpack589:
Solana is a far better investment than Ethereum.

Inside all my bags,.. nah only sol don give me tangible profits

EmmyPers:
Okay okay, @Halastershang and @Ogogorofreak, would you advise that we sleep or remain awake?🙇‍♂️

Robnectar:
Wetin bring insults for the response he gave u, shey you never take ur meds?

lol
Who needs meds now

Doyin
Robnectar
Sweekveek
Drshomo
Proohetkelly

Jayce232
Mercyspeak

Anything mercy this
Mercy that
Them follow

Are all the same


One person using many monikers

And lastly GraceGlory Crv crooner!

You’re a mad man!
For trying to put mouth into what doesn’t concern you

All I see here are two analysts trying to be wanna be traders

One is a failed analyst!

One is trying to stay relevant!

Nothing concern analysis and Alpha male!

Without money as an alpha male you’re pure Poosie!

When I wanna talk about crypto
I go to crypto section!

If you wanna talk about gold and silver!
Come to business section Forex traders Alert!

It’s on nairaland… make we humble u wotowoto


One is better than the other analyst despite being a crooner, he understands tha chart better

For now,.. Poosie boys

Lecture notes are ready for you to read and confuse yourself!