₦airaland Forum

RodgersAkpafu:
@Gerrard59

You are still looking at these Asians with starry eyes lol
Probably star struck too
Okay oh, I don hear you If I feel some bust of energy, I may just reply to your posts one by one like I normally do.I'll however say this again...
Under estimate the Europeans at your peril
They are still ahead, and have what it takes to remain ahead
At least for the next century

I am not looking at Asians with favoured eyes. I am saying everyone is now hustling on steroids, and those who have been at the top should realise and accept it, rather than fight against it.

China and the rest of the world hustling/working hard to deliver prosperity to their people are here to stay. It is 2025, not 1945.

Gerrard59:
I am not looking at Asians with favoured eyes. I am saying everyone is now hustling on steroids, and those who have been at the top should realise and accept it, rather than fight against it.

China and the rest of the world hustling/working hard to deliver prosperity to their people are here to stay. It is 2025, not 1945.

Of course
The Europeans are not resting on their oars either
The hustle is now real, and Britain 🇬🇧 (my adopted country lol) has thrown in the hat in the ring, and is ready to compete as well.
UKRI and HEA is gonna throw in billions more into cutting edge research

There are talks to rejig the curriculum for the secondary level up to FE.
And of course, British Banking system is still on the table, as over half of global transactions pass through British jurisdiction

So Gerrard59, the competition is on, and yes, I support the west in keeping spies from China away from their IP.
If you are in competition with someone, you don't give them any one up over you.
They MUST hustle for it
A part of the Chinese success story is stealing IP from the west, an allegation that even them cannot deny

So if you were a western policy maker, what will you do?
Exactly what they are doing

LordAdam16:
At the end of January, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio made a noteworthy admission.
It flew under the radar for the most part.
But it is easily one of the most consequential utterances by a US SecState since the end of the Cold War.



https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show/

Pansophist started this thread in Aug 2023.
In less than 18 months, it's done.
The Americans accept multipolarism as the de facto new world order.

Pansophist, you'll need to decide the theme of the thread going forward.
The multipolarism vs hegemonism contest is over.
The Hegemony tapped out.

We're switching to an era of full-spectrum Great Power competition.
A radically different proposition.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
At the end of January, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio made a noteworthy admission.
It flew under the radar for the most part.
But it is easily one of the most consequential utterances by a US SecState since the end of the Cold War.



https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show/

Pansophist started this thread in Aug 2023.
In less than 18 months, it's done.
The Americans accept multipolarism as the de facto new world order.

Pansophist, you'll need to decide the theme of the thread going forward.
The multipolarism vs hegemonism contest is over.
The Hegemony tapped out.

We're switching to an era of full-spectrum Great Power competition.
A radically different proposition.

-Lord

Pansophist deserves an award, and hopefully in the near future, I will gift him a nice and gift. His arguments and positions changed a lot for me.

emmaodet:

Happy New Year, emma!

Trust you're well.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
Happy New Year, emma!

Trust you're well.

-Lord

I am fine bro and you? how is family? work/biz?

emmaodet:
I am fine bro and you? how is family? work/biz?

Everything is great.

Thanks for asking.

-Lord

RodgersAkpafu:
Of course
The Europeans are not resting on their oars either
The hustle is now real, and Britain 🇬🇧 (my adopted country lol) has thrown in the hat in the ring, and is ready to compete as well.
UKRI and HEA is gonna throw in billions more into cutting edge research

There are talks to rejig the curriculum for the secondary level up to FE.
And of course, British Banking system is still on the table, as over half of global transactions pass through British jurisdiction

So Gerrard59, the competition is on, and yes, I support the west in keeping spies from China away from their IP.
If you are in competition with someone, you don't give them any one up over you.
They MUST hustle for it
A part of the Chinese success story is stealing IP from the west, an allegation that even them cannot deny

So if you were a western policy maker, what will you do?
Exactly what they are doing

As a love of the West, when do we get to see similar investments like this and others in Nigeria and neighbouring African countries such as Ghana and Kenya? Let's even leave Nigeria because of so-called fraudulent nature. How cheap is the labour and timezone in India favourable over Ghana and Kenya?

https://archive.md/2025.02.05-044627/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-05/blackrock-plans-to-hire-1-200-people-for-ramp-up-in-india

At least, we've Nigerians employed in factories manned by the Chinese - notwithstanding the long hours and low pay.

Gerrard59:
As a love of the West, when do we get to see similar investments like this and others in Nigeria and neighbouring African countries such as Ghana and Kenya? Let's even leave Nigeria because of so-called fraudulent nature. How cheap is the labour and timezone in India favourable over Ghana and Kenya?

https://archive.md/2025.02.05-044627/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-05/blackrock-plans-to-hire-1-200-people-for-ramp-up-in-india

At least, we've Nigerians employed in factories manned by the Chinese - notwithstanding the long hours and low pay.

Western Multinatiinals in Africa pay the highest pay to African people.
And that's a fact because I worked briefly for one when I was still based in Nigeria

The Big 4, Schlumberger, AXA, and the list is endless.

That right there is your answer
There are pockets of middle class in Africa IN PART because the Totals and Chevrons et al are paying good money to the locals who work for them over there

China on the other hand is opening sweatshops left and right, and half witted Africans on the ground are hailing them lol

RodgersAkpafu:
Western Multinatiinals in Africa pay the highest pay to African people.
And that's a fact because I worked briefly for one when I was still based in Nigeria

The Big 4, Schlumberger, AXA, and the list is endless.

That right there is your answer
There are pockets of middle class in Africa IN PART because the Totals and Chevrons et al are paying good money to the locals who work for them over there

China on the other hand is opening sweatshops left and right, and half witted Africans on the ground are hailing them lol

They employ a larger number of persons compared to those companies you mentioned. That was how China, Singapore, South Korea and now Vietnam grew - they served as sweatshops to MNCs and local entrepreneurs. Today, they have strong and stable middle classes. So, where should ordinary Nigerians work if not factories manned by the Chinese producing everyday goods? Is it everyone PwC can employ? Less than 100 in 2016 and slightly above that in 2017 meanwhile, 76K+ people applied.

Well, if Africans don't want such, they can start their own companies and run it. It even took Indians to turn around Guinness to profitability within a year.

Gerrard59:
They employ a larger number of persons compared to those companies you mentioned. That was how China, Singapore, South Korea and now Vietnam grew - they served as sweatshops to MNCs and local entrepreneurs. Today, they have strong and stable middle classes. So, where should ordinary Nigerians work if not factories manned by the Chinese producing everyday goods? Is it everyone PwC can employ? Less than 100 in 2015 and slightly above that in 2017 meanwhile, 76K+ people applied.

Well, if Africans don't want such, they can start their own companies and run it. It even took Indians to turn around Guinness to profitability within a year.

I'm very sure PwC employed may mote than 100 people in 2015

RodgersAkpafu:
I'm very sure PwC employed may mote than 100 people in 2015

Sorry, that should be 2016. It was the onset of Buharinomics.

Thanks for the correction.
P.S. Graduate trainee.

Gerrard59:
Sorry, that should be 2016. It was the onset of Buharinomics.

Thanks for the correction.
P.S. Graduate trainee.

I get your point of view nonetheless
Let's keep our options open is what I'll say
Have partners in line with our interests

RodgersAkpafu:
I get your point of view nonetheless
Let's keep our options open is what I'll say
Have partners in line with our interests

That has been my stance ever since: protecting our interests before anything else. And when the new kids are on the block, the old takers should accord respect to them.

Gerrard59:
They employ a larger number of persons compared to those companies you mentioned. That was how China, Singapore, South Korea and now Vietnam grew - they served as sweatshops to MNCs and local entrepreneurs. Today, they have strong and stable middle classes. So, where should ordinary Nigerians work if not factories manned by the Chinese producing everyday goods? Is it everyone PwC can employ? Less than 100 in 2016 and slightly above that in 2017 meanwhile, 76K+ people applied.

Well, if Africans don't want such, they can start their own companies and run it. It even took Indians to turn around Guinness to profitability within a year.

I am not sure you have actual experience of the working conditions or opportunities in most of these Chinese or Indian factories.

And tolaram that took over Guinness is not run by Indians but Indonesians. Same tolaram owns indofood who were able to weather dangote.

I did my nysc in aluminum rolling mills a company run by Indians in the 2000s. One day when a senior manager was saying he had savings of 100k, I knew that was not the place for me.

They were running labour intensive paper based work. They were managing every damn thing in the worst of ways.

Work in a place like fouani or jubaili and you will see just how racist Lebanese are

CCECC bring engineers from China to run projects. As far as I have seen Nigerians are largely low cadre labour.

These companies have been in Nigeria for years and you cannot point to the development in their wake.

And safety in these companies is zero, just as in their home countries. If you get maimed on the job, you are oyo.



right now indian contractors are rolling out CNG in NNPC sites. they are completely black boxing what they are doing - hiding all the information. no knowledge transfer. no training of staff. years ago total nigeria had issues with quality of project construction documentation and they organized a training for all their vendors. that is how it is done.

if you are not careful, you would spend 10 years working with these guys and come out with no significant gains in technical competence or skills

Only thing I can say in favor of the Indians - they have Nigerians number. Nigerians cannot steal an Indian company into the ground they way they can a western multinational

Is the power still shifting?

I present Exhibit H why the Hegemony remains potent even though it lost the battle to preserve its unipolar world order.
Four of the largest Big Tech companies project capex spend of above $320B - that's billion with a B - in 2025.

Exhibit I is the Trump administration suspending enforcement of the law prohibiting American firms from giving bribes globally.

The Great Power competition is well underway but how it'll end is not set in stone.

-Lord

Kelvin3476:
Is the power still shifting?

Past tense.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:
I am not sure you have actual experience of the working conditions or opportunities in most of these Chinese or Indian factories.

And tolaram that took over Guinness is not run by Indians but Indonesians. Same tolaram owns indofood who were able to weather dangote.

I did my nysc in aluminum rolling mills a company run by Indians in the 2000s. One day when a senior manager was saying he had savings of 100k, I knew that was not the place for me.

They were running labour intensive paper based work. They were managing every damn thing in the worst of ways.

Work in a place like fouani or jubaili and you will see just how racist Lebanese are

CCECC bring engineers from China to run projects. As far as I have seen Nigerians are largely low cadre labour.

These companies have been in Nigeria for years and you cannot point to the development in their wake.

And safety in these companies is zero, just as in their home countries. If you get maimed on the job, you are oyo.



right now indian contractors are rolling out CNG in NNPC sites. they are completely black boxing what they are doing - hiding all the information. no knowledge transfer. no training of staff. years ago total nigeria had issues with quality of project construction documentation and they organized a training for all their vendors. that is how it is done.

if you are not careful, you would spend 10 years working with these guys and come out with no significant gains in technical competence or skills

Only thing I can say in favor of the Indians - they have Nigerians number. Nigerians cannot steal an Indian company into the ground they way they can a western multinational

Very well said !
Thank you for sharing this perspective
You worded some of my thoughts in black and white better than I would have ever done

Say what you want about westerners, but at least working in their multinationals, u will learn something and treated more humanely
I enjoyed my stay when I was in Nigeria
Of course there were issues, but lessons learnt are lessons that still push me even till today

But you see India/Chinese
Those ones are slave ships (I say this with my full chest)
Given a choice between working for a western multinational and an Asian sweatshop, I bet most Africans will go for the former.

It's all nice and okay to criticise the excesses of the western hegemony
but these Asians no be am either

When it comes to the intangibles, the Western World is still AT LEAST a century ahead of these other guys

LordAdam16:
I present Exhibit H why the Hegemony remains potent even though it lost the battle to preserve its unipolar world order.
Four of the largest Big Tech companies project capex spend of above $320B - that's billion with a B - in 2025.

Exhibit I is the Trump administration suspending enforcement of the law prohibiting American firms from giving bribes globally.

The Great Power competition is well underway but how it'll end is not set in stone.

-Lord

Who is auditing?

All these companies with Billion dollars or trillion dollars valuation are mostly over-inflated figure. See what Deepseek did to OpenAi (an oxymoron because there is nothing open about OpenAi).

Even the US that is generally accepted as the world's number one economy is highly suspicious, I strongly believe China is number one, but this will be. discussion of another day.

Gerrard59:
Looking back at this thread and the latest technological advances from China, I am glad my predictions have come to pass. Next up is the EUV machine - as I stated, e go become pure water. Expect to see one at Ladipo when it becomes public.

Learn Chinese today. This is the Chinese Century.

The only thing China didn't achieve in their MIC2025 was in high end chips, but every other sectors, they met target way before deadline.

Indeed, this is the Chinese century.

pansophist:
Who is auditing?

All these companies with Billion dollars or trillion dollars valuation are mostly over-inflated figure. See what Deepseek did to OpenAi (an oxymoron because there is nothing open about OpenAi).

Even the US that is generally accepted as the world's number one economy is highly suspicious, I strongly believe China is number one, but this will be. discussion of another day.

The thing is
As much as there is a question mark in US valuations and records
We can't trust the Chinese either because their data is not subject to scrutiny, and proper audits are not conducted

That was the conolaint US Congress had with Chinese companies in the US not complying to regulatory audit reports and requirements
And that's why there was some lobbying to kick out Chinese companies from US financial markets

Let the CCP allow for more transparency in their data sourcing et al, and MAYBE the world will take them more seriously

pansophist:
Who is auditing?

All these companies with Billion dollars or trillion dollars valuation are mostly over-inflated figure. See what Deepseek did to OpenAi (an oxymoron because there is nothing open about OpenAi).

Even the US that is generally accepted as the world's number one economy is highly suspicious, I strongly believe China is number one, but this will be. discussion of another day.

Huge difference between outrageous valuation and cold hard cash.
My comment was about the latter.

The Big Tech companies I referenced will use about 20% of their revenue on capex spending in 2025.
That comes out to $320B.
People all around the world still use Google Search, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, Windows, Office.
Many other online services we interact with, from your online banking platform to your booking platform, run on AWS, Azure, Google Cloud.
Essentially, the US tech giants monetize the entire planet, and then use part of their earnings to fund R& and capex.
Which of course lead to more advancements, like Waymo or drone delivery, and does an ok job of keeping up with China.

That hundreds of billions in free cashflow is a war chest that only China can match.

I enthusiastically want China and the Global South to excel.
But as focus shifts from dismantling the unipolar order to intense inter-bloc competition, it is pertinent to highlight the strengths and blind spots of the blocs.

Here's an apt analogy.
If Elon Musk lost 70% of his peak wealth, he'll still be worth $100B+ and be one of only 20 centi billionaires on the planet.
The US is not the preeminent superpower anymore. But it is still a 600-pound gorilla.
And there are moves it could make that would create seismic shifts.

The bribery development is understated.
When the US was alone at the top, it had the luxury of tying one hand behind its back by forbidding its companies from indulging in sharp practices that pervade the entire Global South.
That is changing.

-Lord

pansophist:
The only thing China didn't achieve in their MIC2025 was in high end chips, but every other sectors, they met target way before deadline.

Indeed, this is the Chinese century.

I wanted to tag you seeing the new developments in the Russian-Ukraine war. Na you be baba. Well done!🙌🏿

As for high chips and the etching machines, those are only a matter of time. The West thought the Chinese are stoopid or could be bullied. They will see the much more determined side of them going forward.

LordAdam16:
At the end of January, Secretary of State, Marco Rubio made a noteworthy admission.
It flew under the radar for the most part.
But it is easily one of the most consequential utterances by a US SecState since the end of the Cold War.



https://www.state.gov/secretary-marco-rubio-with-megyn-kelly-of-the-megyn-kelly-show/

Pansophist started this thread in Aug 2023.
In less than 18 months, it's done.
The Americans accept multipolarism as the de facto new world order.

Pansophist, you'll need to decide the theme of the thread going forward.
The multipolarism vs hegemonism contest is over.
The Hegemony tapped out.

We're switching to an era of full-spectrum Great Power competition.
A radically different proposition.

-Lord

I do not think the shift is over, or the hegemon tapped out.

From my analysis, I believe the hegemon is still in the phase of epiphany, not necessarily acceptance. Tapping out would be at the level of Portugal, Spain, or even Britain. Countries whom are ex-powers but now, just a number in the UN.

Until when there are no sanctions against countries for wanting to have independent policies, installing puppets around, and yapping about the fraudulent ''rule base order'', then it is too early to say the hegemon tapped out.

An expression of this epiphany is your quoted Marco Rubio's statement, or Hegseth denial of Ukraine's entry to Nato, or their frustrated acceptance that indeed, their is a new sheriff in town, which is the good old China, with at least a 5000 years continuous civilisation under its belt.

Also, I believe the hegemon is in a restructural phase. Not all discourse between Trump and Putin was released to the public, but there will be a concesion somewhere. The US might let Russia have its way with Ukraine, but Russia has to help somehow in the hegemon's pivot elsewhere to solidify and tighten their grip.

In light of the foregoing, I am confident that any deal that will require Russia to betray their marriage with China is a non-starter, Russia will never be a participant to that.

I suspect Trump hope to undo the grave mistake of past administration, which is, to water the marriage between Russia and China, but I will be shock if Trump is under an illusion that the sailed ship can still be brought back to harbour.

But in politics, it is hard to predict the turn of event, afterall, every party is loyal to its interest. But as time goes, we shall all know what Russia is exchanging for Ukraine.

RodgersAkpafu:
The thing is
As much as there is a question mark in US valuations and records
We can't trust the Chinese either because their data is not subject to scrutiny, and proper audits are not conducted

That was the conolaint US Congress had with Chinese companies in the US not complying to regulatory audit reports and requirements
And that's why there was some lobbying to kick out Chinese companies from US financial markets

Let the CCP allow for more transparency in their data sourcing et al, and MAYBE the world will take them more seriously

Regardless of GDP numbers data, let the fact, the one you can see, touch, and feel, speak for itself.

1. six of the top ten busiest seaports in the world are in China.
2. Four of the top five largest banks in the world are all in China
3. China is the largest exporting country.
4. World largest consumer market is China. The Chinese middle class is bigger than the whole population of US and Canada combined.
5. Country with the largest external reserve is China
6. Country that trade with most countries in the world is China.
7. Only country that has a complete industrial system is China
8. Largest producers and consumers of electric cars than the rest of the world combined is China
9. Country with the largest scientific output is China
10. Country to lift over 800 million people out of poverty is China.
11. The US is 36T dollars in debt, China is not.

I can go on and on, but I will stop here.

If you depend on westerners to tell you that China is the largest economy, then I have fried ice to sell to you.

The US is the world largest economy but its debt to GDP ratio is 123%, but look at the poverty, prison population, debt, crumbling infrastructure, and highly drugged, depressive society. And you still believe that numbers?

If statistics and GDP figures means a country is doing fine, then I rather go with the Chinese method. Because at the end, I just need a safe society to raise my kids, good food without gmo, and a responsible govt that is answerable to me.

To hell with GDP figures generated by numbers that can be manipulated.

pansophist:
Regardless of GDP numbers data, let the fact, the one you can see, touch, and feel, speak for itself.

1. six of the top ten busiest seaports in the world are in China.
2. Four of the top five largest banks in the world are all in China
3. China is the largest exporting country.
4. World largest consumer market is China. The Chinese middle class is bigger than the whole population of US and Canada combined.
5. Country with the largest external reserve is China
6. Country that trade with most countries in the world is China.
7. Only country that has a complete industrial system is China
8. Largest producers and consumers of electric cars than the rest of the world combined is China
9. Country with the largest scientific output is China
10. Country to lift over 800 million people out of poverty is China.
11. The US is 36T dollars in debt, China is not.

I can go on and on, but I will stop here.

If you depend on westerners to tell you that China is the largest economy, then I have fried ice to sell to you

The US is the world largest economy but its debt to GDP ratio is 123%, but look at the poverty, prison population, debt, crumbling infrastructure, and highly drugged, depressive society. And you still believe that numbers?

If statistics and GDP figures means a country is doing fine, then I rather go with the Chinese method. Because at the end, I just need a safe society to raise my kids, good food without gmo, and a responsible govt that is answerable to me.

To hell with GDP figures generated by numbers that can be manipulated.

As per the bolded
No
I don't depend on the west to tell me about China in anyways
The dynamics are there for all to see.

If you are not transparent about your data, how can we even trust anything that you do?
Obviously China has done very well over the past three decades plus, workings dey ground

HOWEVER, much more needs to be done before they can comfortably say they are equal peers to America

All you have highlighted, while cool and all are all tangible
Like LordAdam16 rightly referenced, the invisible sector is where it is at right now, and China doesn't even come close in that regard

Google, Microsoft, Netflix, and the list goes on and on and on are all using intangible assets to collect like lagos touts lol from the whole world

till date, China is yet to replicate a Microsoft

Again, don't get me wrong
China has done good...
But if we are objective, and not just driven by "bias against Uncle Sam", you will know that China still has a long way to go.

You mentioned the debt stock
China is neck deep in debt as well...
Pouring in billions into SOEs that they should have just left to die has dug a big hole in their pocket
But CCP being CCP, the data is ridden with secrecy and half truths

You are right unequivocally on one aspect though

The prison population, and the social dysfunction in America which btw is a CONSEQUENCE of late stage capitalism / extreme greed, profiteering and corporate interests over country.
All leading to inequality which in turn leading to this mess America is facing

Heck, it was the same greed that even gave China the break in the first place via offshoring and supply side economics.
Even the Chinese know this

RodgersAkpafu:
As per the bolded
No
I don't depend on the west to tell me about China in anyways
The dynamics are there for all to see.

If you are not transparent about your data, how can we even trust anything that you do?
Obviously China has done very well over the past three decades plus, workings dey ground

HOWEVER, much more needs to be done before they can comfortably say they are equal peers to America

All you have highlighted, while cool and all are all tangible
Like LordAdam16 rightly referenced, the invisible sector is where it is at right now, and China doesn't even come close in that regard

Google, Microsoft, Netflix, and the list goes on and on and on are all using intangible assets to collect like lagos touts lol from the whole world

till date, China is yet to replicate a Microsoft

Again, don't get me wrong
China has done good...
But if we are objective, and not just driven by "bias against Uncle Sam", you will know that China still has a long way to go.

You mentioned the debt stock
China is neck deep in debt as well...
Pouring in billions into SOEs that they should have just left to die has dug a big hole in their pocket
But CCP being CCP, the data is ridden with secrecy and half truths

You are right unequivocally on one aspect though

The prison population, and the social dysfunction in America which btw is a CONSEQUENCE of late stage capitalism / extreme greed, profiteering and corporate interests over country.
All leading to inequality which in turn leading to this mess America is facing

Heck, it was the same greed that even gave China the break in the first place via offshoring and supply side economics.
Even the Chinese know this

Also

Nigerians use the word chinko. Westerners use the word chinesium

People will tell you Chinese products are cheaper and they will be right. What they will not say is the absolute lack of support and documentation.

I worked in downstream energy. You want a manual for an American or UK or Japanese product. It is on their website. Whatever info you need. Manual, drawings specs everything.

Now try a Chinese product. First hit is sales websites with low res jpgs. Then you find the site and all you get is sales brochures. You literally have to scrape your info together and hope it is correct.

I was working on a project with chargers for evs. The client sent me info that was clearly wrong. I kept demanding for the manuals which should have been on the manufacturer website but weren't.

Another time I got a manual for a charger that was at odds with the product. And the engineers could not answer my question.

Work with Chinese products in a project and you cannot properly plan unless you have already used the products before

Their technical literature is shit.

GloriousGbola:
Also

Nigerians use the word chinko. Westerners use the word chinesium

People will tell you Chinese products are cheaper and they will be right. What they will not say is the absolute lack of support and documentation.

I worked in downstream energy. You want a manual for an American or UK or Japanese product. It is on their website. Whatever info you need. Manual, drawings specs everything.

Now try a Chinese product. First hit is sales websites with low res jpgs. Then you find the site and all you get is sales brochures. You literally have to scrape your info together and hope it is correct.

I was working on a project with chargers for evs. The client sent me info that was clearly wrong. I kept demanding for the manuals which should have been on the manufacturer website but weren't.

Another time I got a manual for a charger that was at odds with the product. And the engineers could not answer my question.

Work with Chinese products in a project and you cannot properly plan unless you have already used the products before

Their technical literature is shit.

Thanks for your input

pansophist:
I do not think the shift is over, or the hegemon tapped out.

From my analysis, I believe the hegemon is still in the phase of epiphany, not necessarily acceptance. Tapping out would be at the level of Portugal, Spain, or even Britain. Countries whom are ex-powers but now, just a number in the UN.

Geopolitical watchers keep their eyes on two developments.
A. Can the US maintain its "end of history" unipolar rules-based global order?
B. Will the US become a has-been replaced as the pre-eminent superpower by a Global South superpower, China being the most likely candidate?

I consider these two to be distinct.
Some do not make this distinction. They consider them a single development with two prongs. The first leading to the second. Basically, If the US loses its unipolar order, a symptom of a declining superpower, it will ultimately become a has-been. The Greece, Italy, or Portugal of the 21st century.

I do not think that is sacrosanct.
As an academic exercise, say the latter is a more correct read. History suggests there will be an interregnum that'll retroactively appear to be part of the period of decline, but to contemporary watchers who existed at the time would be a period of uncertainty.

I believe we are in such an interregnum.
My usage of the expression "tap out" was to convey that the Hegemony had been desperately trying to preserve its unipolar order by dismantling the China-centric supply chain and starting a proxy war with Russia. It lost that battle. Rubio's statement acknowledges that loss. Pretty much, we tried to fight it. We are tapping out. We accept the new reality that a multipolar order now has now replaced the old unipolar order.
You call it an epiphany. That works too.

What you describe as tapping out is the end game. I call that total capitulation.
That's a ways out.
And as I said earlier, I do not think that's inevitable.

Until when there are no sanctions against countries for wanting to have independent policies, installing puppets around, and yapping about the fraudulent ''rule base order'', then it is too early to say the hegemon tapped out.

These events would only happen after a total capitulation.
But for at least the next quarter of a century, the US will still throw its weight around.

This is the primary reason why I bifurcate the milestones.
By definition, multipolarism as a geopolitical concept suggests more than two blocs likely in intense competition.
Thus, in a multipolar world, the US would still be able to sanction countries (though the effectiveness will decline over time, but it'll still be potent against countries within or abutting their sphere of influence like Mexico or even Nigeria). They'll still be able to install puppets. And even though they wouldn't be able to pretend that they unilaterally call the shots globally, they'll definitely make it known to anyone who'd listen that they're the top dog in their sphere of influence.

An expression of this epiphany is your quoted Marco Rubio's statement, or Hegseth denial of Ukraine's entry to Nato, or their frustrated acceptance that indeed, their is a new sheriff in town, which is the good old China, with at least a 5000 years continuous civilisation under its belt.

Also, I believe the hegemon is in a restructural phase. Not all discourse between Trump and Putin was released to the public, but there will be a concesion somewhere. The US might let Russia have its way with Ukraine, but Russia has to help somehow in the hegemon's pivot elsewhere to solidify and tighten their grip.

In light of the foregoing, I am confident that any deal that will require Russia to betray their marriage with China is a non-starter, Russia will never be a participant to that.

I suspect Trump hope to undo the grave mistake of past administration, which is, to water the marriage between Russia and China, but I will be shock if Trump is under an illusion that the sailed ship can still be brought back to harbour.

But in politics, it is hard to predict the turn of event, afterall, every party is loyal to its interest. But as time goes, we shall all know what Russia is exchanging for Ukraine.

That ability to be nimble, course correct, and attempt to restructure or reform is a strength.

In a unipolar world, the US has to cripple Russia and China.
In a multipolar world, they step back, acknowledge the interests of the leading powers in other blocs, and use brinksmanship to simultaneously stay afloat while hoping (plotting?) to return to the glory days of unipolarism.
That's what Trump means by MAGA.

MAGA cannot happen until they snap out of their mass delusion that the CCP will collapse any moment now or Russia can be balkanized using the right amount of pressure.
So they let up. And acknowledge Russia's red lines. Still buy most of their stuff from China but start erecting as many roadblocks (double as firewalls) as they can and insulating themselves from a potential nasty situation where China - a bloc leader - uses its economic and geopolitical leverage to twist America's arm. As China has demonstrated with the rare earths cutback.

I call this Great Power Competition.
We're back to moving chess pieces.
How this ends is anyone's guess.

As you point out, "it's hard to predict the turn of events".
That's what happens to contemporary geopolitical watchers during an interregnum. UNCERTAINTY.
This is the crux of my commentary.
Nothing is set in stone.
As such, it is pertinent to highlight and analyze the perceived strengths and chinks in the armor of the blocs to get a sense of the next shoe to drop.

-Lord

LordAdam16:
Geopolitical watchers keep their eyes on two developments.
A. Can the US maintain its "end of history" unipolar rules-based global order?
B. Will the US become a has-been replaced as the pre-eminent superpower by a Global South superpower, China being the most likely candidate?

I consider these two to be distinct.
Some do not make this distinction. They consider them a single development with two prongs. The first leading to the second. Basically, If the US loses its unipolar order, a symptom of a declining superpower, it will ultimately become a has-been. The Greece, Italy, or Portugal of the 21st century.

I do not think that is sacrosanct.
As an academic exercise, say the latter is a more correct read. History suggests there will be an interregnum that'll retroactively appear to be part of the period of decline, but to contemporary watchers who existed at the time would be a period of uncertainty.

I believe we are in such an interregnum.
My usage of the expression "tap out" was to convey that the Hegemony had been desperately trying to preserve its unipolar order by dismantling the China-centric supply chain and starting a proxy war with Russia. It lost that battle. Rubio's statement acknowledges that loss. Pretty much, we tried to fight it. We are tapping out. We accept the new reality that a multipolar order now has now replaced the old unipolar order.
You call it an epiphany. That works too.

What you describe as tapping out is the end game. I call that total capitulation.
That's a ways out.
And as I said earlier, I do not think that's inevitable.



These events would only happen after a total capitulation.
But for at least the next quarter of a century, the US will still throw its weight around.

This is the primary reason why I bifurcate the milestones.
By definition, multipolarism as a geopolitical concept suggests more than two blocs likely in intense competition.
Thus, in a multipolar world, the US would still be able to sanction countries (though the effectiveness will decline over time, but it'll still be potent against countries within or abutting their sphere of influence like Mexico or even Nigeria). They'll still be able to install puppets. And even though they wouldn't be able to pretend that they unilaterally call the shots globally, they'll definitely make it known to anyone who'd listen that they're the top dog in their sphere of influence.



That ability to be nimble, course correct, and attempt to restructure or reform is a strength.

In a unipolar world, the US has to cripple Russia and China.
In a multipolar world, they step back, acknowledge the interests of the leading powers in other blocs, and use brinksmanship to simultaneously stay afloat while hoping (plotting?) to return to the glory days of unipolarism.
That's what Trump means by MAGA.

MAGA cannot happen until they snap out of their mass delusion that the CCP will collapse any moment now or Russia can be balkanized using the right amount of pressure.
So they let up. And acknowledge Russia's red lines. Still buy most of their stuff from China but start erecting as many roadblocks (double as firewalls) as they can and insulating themselves from a potential nasty situation where China - a bloc leader - uses its economic and geopolitical leverage to twist America's arm. As China has demonstrated with the rare earths cutback.

I call this Great Power Competition.
We're back to moving chess pieces.
How this ends is anyone's guess.

As you point out, "it's hard to predict the turn of events".
That's what happens to contemporary geopolitical watchers during an interregnum. UNCERTAINTY.
This is the crux of my commentary.
Nothing is set in stone.
As such, it is pertinent to highlight and analyze the perceived strengths and chinks in the armor of the blocs to get a sense of the next shoe to drop.

-Lord

This is a heavy one, nice submission.

Looking at the US situation, the hegemon is in a difficult position to maintain, sustain, and surpress other powers.

Because I honestly do not see how the US will regain its position as it was in the 90's. That era is long gone, and most importantly, hegemonism is an anomaly. Its a fluke, abnormality. and a mistake of history.

Especially when it was abused, and such abused is a feature of hegemonism, instead of being a bug. I believe that hegemons who are responsible can be loved by their subjects.

I dont know if there are any historical proof to support this, but I see position of power as a function. Just like a father to his child. The child may be subjected to the control of his father, but such relational dynamic can not be said to be abusive.

Hegemonism can only thrive in a absolute scenerio where other players lacks the inherent means to be a challenger, like how a chicken will never in a billion years, defeat a tiger.

In truth, every people on earth, if they get their act together, can work and be a formidable contender. China did this, India can and Africa also. This truth is acknowledge by the US foreign policy who have an pathological need to surpress others from rising up, and create political structure (rule-base-order) where such servility must be the default to all countries.

How long can such surpression last? especially when the whole world have awaken from their slumber and defiance is growing, and with the internal armies of frustrated citizens who prefer that their US govt should focus internally instead of policing the world.

The only way hegemonism can work or as they call it, the end of history is if only the US have nukes. The fate of Japan would have been the fate of any defiant countries, without fear of repercussions.

But joyfully, such reality was prevented by uncelebrated heroes like 'Klaus Emil Julius Fuchs' who passed the secrets to make nukes to the soviets, to make sure the world is not at the mercy of one superpower.

I only imagine what our world of today will be like if the ability to make nukes is only in the hands of Washington, and other contenders have been obliterated like Japan.

Such a sad day it would be for the world.

One of the phenomena that used to "bother" me was why the West is much against the Chinese notwithstanding the colonial dehumanisation China went through in their hands. Then I recalled how Japan's wings were clipped and while going through Trump's staff during his first tenure (way before the 2024 election), I came across an official (one of the rare black officials) who clearly stated that unlike the Soviet Union or Russia as we know it to be, China is not "Western", aka Caucasian aka White. And unlike the Soviets who didn't run a proper economy, the Chinese do. So, it is the first time the US has faced a great power that is not White. Japan could have been that power, but it had military bases after being hit TWICE by the same US. As a result, it signed the Plaza Accord which wrecked its economy. Also, it had a smaller geographical mass, a smaller population compared to China and no nuclear weapons. All of which are opposite to China.

So at the end of the day, race plays a major part. This is why I agree with some folks who say Trump and Elon are willing to "work" with a fellow White/Caucasian country - Russia - to get back at China. Whether the Russians would do so is yet to be seen.
Comments by the former official (Kiron Skinner):
- https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/02/the-slip-that-revealed-the-real-trump-doctrine/
- https://www.newsweek.com/china-threat-state-department-race-caucasian-1413202

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What does anyone think of Modi's visit to the Oval Office? I know the West has tried bromancing with the Indians especially Modi who was once branded a terrorist (by the US) in a bid to get back at China. Thankfully, the Indians stood their ground during the unnecessary war between Russia and Ukraine. As we've seen, any country or country's elites that sacrifices itself for the US would ALWAYS lose. The recent events remind me of how I cautioned the Taiwanese I met months ago never to allow an outsider push him to fight his elder brother.

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Once again, sheer kudos to Pansophist who saw everything for what it was and it is. Russia wins. I owe you a gift, no jokes. Your arguments entirely changed my perspective and outlook. 🙌🏿