₦airaland Forum

Experts Disagree As IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s 2025 GDP Forecast

Experts have disagreed to the recent downgrade of the Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Outlook from 3.2 per cent to 3 per cent in 2025 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The projection is a downgrade from the IMF’s estimate of 3.2 percent announced in October 2024, according to the Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) report presented at the ongoing spring meetings on Washington DC.

The Bretton Woods organisation also expects Nigeria’s economic growth to further slowdown at 2.7 percent in 2026.

The estimates reflect a broader decline in global economic activities, following the announcement of tariffs by United States and countermeasures by trading partners, according to the IMF.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s real per capita output is projected to rise by just 0.6% in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026, indicating minimal gains in individual income levels despite overall growth.

This lags behind the Sub-Saharan Africa average and underscores continued inequality and weak household purchasing power.


What Experts are saying

Speaking on Daily Trust, lead economist for ECOWAS, Prof. Ken Ife, said contrary to the IMF’s projections, Nigeria’s economy would outperform up to 4 percent in 2025

He said: “I disagree with the IMF projections because they don’t understand our economy well. There are indices that reflect on GDP growth and Nigeria is doing well in that regard.

“These indices include household consumption, balance of payments and investments.

“In terms of balance of payments, we posted positive balance of payments of $6.8 billion and our household and public consumption is set to increase if the tax reform bill is passed because of the amendments, some taxes will be removed and household consumption will increase.

“Also in terms of investments, we are not seeing Foreign Direct Investments but we are also seeing portfolio investments. Also we are seeing domestic investments in the case of Dangote refinery which is now selling refined petroleum in Naira and saving us alot of forex,” he explained.

Prof. Ife added that with the recent indices, Nigeria’s economy was poised for growth and exceed the projections by the IMF.

In his own view, Dr. Oluseye Ajuwon, a lecturer at the African School of Economics, noted that the downgrade might not be only for Nigeria considering the current trade war initiated by American President Donald Trump.

According to him, “I don’t think the downgrade is only for Nigeria considering the trade wars currently happening between America and the world and Nigeria has its own fair share.

“We are seeing that the tariffs imposition including that of Nigerian goods will also impact the economy negatively including the exchange rates which has now increased to about N1,650 to $1.”

Asked if that will affect investments into Nigeria, he said, “I don’t think the forecast will have any impact again, other than what we have seen.”

https://dailytrust.com/experts-disagree-as-imf-downgrades-nigerias-2025-gdp-forecast/

IMF Regrets Negative Remarks on Nigeria’s Economic Policies Following Confrontation with Senator Ibrahim

The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva on Monday in Washington DC allegedly regretted comments she made recently on the need for the federal government to consider the poor in its economic policies.

Georgieva’s purported regret came against the backdrop of comments by Senator Jimoh Ibrahim, who criticised the IMF over its “negative comments that lack supporting data” about Nigeria’s economy.

IMF had also questioned the federal government’s reforms and its impact on poor Nigerians during an inter parliamentary meetings.

However, Ibrahim, who represented the Senate at the World Bank Parliament in Washington, D.C., specifically challenged the World Bank institution over the negative comment on the Nigerian economy.

The senator further pressed Georgieva, demanding to know what President Tinubu had done wrong with ongoing reforms so far implemented since the president took over the helm of affairs in 2023.

He stressed that such misleading statements had the potential to harm the economy, and create instability in domestic management.

Furthermore, Ibrahim argued that rather than condemnation, the international community needed to acknowledge Tinubu’s noble economic initiatives, especially tariff regulation, improved revenue ratio to GDP ratio, cash flow management relative to GDP, and debt repayment among others.

The senator said, “Madam IMF, in recent weeks, the IMF has criticised the Nigerian reform programmes with negative comments that lack supporting data.

“Do you believe this is fair? Suppose we are to look inward to build a strong economy, as you suggested in your paper.

“Is it appropriate for the IMF to make untruthful comments about the domestic economy?

“Is the IMF the entity managing the economy?” Ibrahim also said Tinubu’s achievements should be considered a success for Africa, warranting worldwide support.

However, addressing the senator’s concerns, the IMF boss said, “We shall be mindful of our comments on Nigeria from now on. We are your IMF; we are sorry again.”

Ibrahim, thereafter, thanked the IMF MD for her straightforward comments and accepted her apology on behalf of the country.

The Fund recently urged the federal government to ensure that its efforts to stabilise economy and boost growth are supported by measures that protect the country’s poorest citizens.

To ease the suffering of the poorest citizens, the IMF asked the federal government to expedite the completion of its cash transfer programme to support the vulnerable households.

According to the Director of the IMF’s Communications Department, Julie Kozack, the cash transfer is a crucial priority in the face of ongoing economic reforms.

“We do recognise the extremely difficult situation that many Nigerians face. For that reason, I just want to emphasise that completing the rollout of cash transfers to vulnerable households is an important priority for Nigeria, as is improving revenue mobilisation domestically,” Kozack said.

thisweekng:
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Chief Olawale Edun has said the last time Nigeria’s economy looked stable was about a decade ago.

He made this statement during his maiden press conference as Minister of Finance where he outlined President Bola Tinubu’s vision, agenda and strategy for the economy.

He said, “I think as we all know, we are not where we should be. The economy is barely growing above the rate of population growth.

“But it was not always so, and I think in trying to look at the way forward, if we now have a situation of slow growth, double-digit inflation, weak/depreciating exchange rate, as well as security concerns that are resulting in an economy that is not growing and not taking Nigerians out of poverty.

“If we think back to the last time when the economy was stable- when it was growing, when inflation was low, and the interest rate was affordable, that period was about a decade ago. Growth was about 6% in 2013 and 2014.”
Private sector to drive the economy

https://thisweekng.com/the-last-time-nigerias-economy-was-stable-was-about-a-decade-ago-wale-edun/

PressMyButton:
https://www.arise.tv/imf-regrets-negative-remarks-on-nigerias-economic-policies-following-confrontation-with-senator-ibrahim/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenationonlineng.net/jimoh-ibrahim-tackles-agency-on-reforms-comment/amp/

LegendHero:
IMF don kolotoureee. They just gather NGO to give data which even they themselves cannot explain. How can anyone say Nigeria GDP is $187b? Dangote industries and the output alone added over $30bn to our GDP so I am surprised you’re saying our GDP is 1/3.

Nobody needs their apology. NBS will release our rebased GDP soon and IMF themselves will announce Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa.

TimeManager:
You can imagine?, that was an insult from the IMF and I wondered what kind of brand they were smoking, whoever gave them that data needs to be jailed.


-Kiss the truth!

LegendHero:
Jonathan rebase our GDP and they increased the value by over 89% in 2013. Na so we overtake South Africa.

IMF should give us few more month and NBS will soon rebase Nigeria GDP. If they bonnn dem well make they no report the increase.

SensualMan1:
As slow and unintelligent as Buhari was he appears more intelligent than the Alleged Accountant from Chicago.

nairalandadeux:
That rebasing was under the second oil boom era

It was even then bad for a nation our size.

Your party and pdp are the same.

By rights our GDP should be 2-4 trillion by now

LegendHero:
4 Trillion $?

nairalandadeux:
So long as the economy is hooked up to oil, it is in a bad state..imf or no imf

Apc has failed because apc has not gotten us off oil

nairalandadeux:
Dollars.

We are not there because we are a dutch diseased nation.

Apc and tinubu have not changed that or cured us