₦airaland Forum

AMINDA:
With which votes? Northern votes? Obi will definitely win the South and this time, a lot of Northerners that voted Tinubu in the North will now vote Atiku. In a 3-horse race, Tinubu will lose.

Apart from 5 states of Southeast and may likely have a good show in Delta,which other southern State would Obi win? The type of beating he would receive in Lagos this time around would be unprecedented.
Moreover, politics is deep. Many northern politicians have presidential ambition,they would rather endure Tinubu for just 4years than to vote Atiku who would throw them out of aspiration in 2031. Tinubu just needs to improve on his performance and make some key appointments from Northeast and Southeast,he would emerge victorious.

onuman:
Tinubu and Atiku will share the votes of ethno-religious bigots. That enables Obi to win in a free and fair election.

kunle4toyeyaho:
Apart from 5 states of Southeast and may likely have a good show in Delta,which other southern State would Obi win? The type of beating he would receive in Lagos this time around would be unprecedented.
Moreover, politics is deep. Many northern politicians have presidential ambition,they would rather endure Tinubu for just 4years than to vote Atiku who would throw them out of aspiration in 2031. Tinubu just needs to improve on his performance and make some key appointments from Northeast and Southeast,he would emerge victorious.

I wouldn't bet on it if I were you. Obi won 9 states in the South in 2023, Tinubu won only 5 (4 in Southwest and Rivers under questionable circumstances). You seem to be overestimating the impact of politicians on electoral results. Below are the politicians who couldn't deliver Tinubu in 2023. Tinubu has even become more unpopular since then.

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos for himself

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Osun for himself

- Muhammadu Buhari failed to deliver Katsina for Tinubu/APC

- Barr Simon Bako Lalong failed to deliver Plateau for Tinubu/APC

- SP Akpabio failed to deliver Akwa Ibom for Tinubu/APC

- DSP Barau failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- NSA Ribadu failed to deliver Adamawa for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Speaker Abbas failed to deliver Kaduna for Tinubu/APC

- Sen Kalu failed to deliver Abia for Tinubu/APC

- Hope Uzodinma failed to deliver Imo for Tinubu/APC.

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Ganduje failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- Gov. Mai Mala failed to deliver Yobe for Tinubu/APC

- Alkali failed to deliver Gombe for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Wammako failed to deliver Sokoto for Tinubu/APC

- Oyetola failed to deliver Osun for Tinubu/APC

- Dave Umahi failed to deliver Ebonyi for Tinubu/APC

ogododo:
https://punchng.com/opposition-govs-reconsider-move-to-apc/

Once I see the news heading, I straightaway know that it is either IPOB PUNCH NEWSPAPER or IPOB VANGUARD NEWSPAPER.

Scrolling straight to the bottom to see the source and I confirm it’s those SATANIC newspapers, I don’t even bother reading.

They only do either of two things: either try to assure their GBAJUE candidate & their IPOB Mob that that there is still hope for them, with no more big politicians bound for the APC or (2) Gbey always try to sow hatred/division within the ranks of the APC or in the SW.

It can never be well with PUNCH & VANGUARD in their current iteration.

AMINDA:
With which votes? Northern votes? Obi will definitely win the South and this time, a lot of Northerners that voted Tinubu in the North will now vote Atiku. In a 3-horse race, Tinubu will lose.

You aren't a good political analyst. There is something call "divide and rule system". Read about it and how to apply it in a tough political terrain in Nigeria.
Only God can stop Jagaban in 2027!!!

I think it is too early to make political calculations Tinubus second term is shaky

AMINDA:
I wouldn't bet on it if I were you. Obi won 9 states in the South in 2023, Tinubu won only 5 (4 in Southwest and Rivers under questionable circumstances). You seem to be overestimating the impact of politicians on electoral results. Below are the politicians who couldn't deliver Tinubu in 2023. Tinubu has even become more unpopular since then.

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Lagos for himself

- Bola Tinubu failed to deliver Osun for himself

- Muhammadu Buhari failed to deliver Katsina for Tinubu/APC

- Barr Simon Bako Lalong failed to deliver Plateau for Tinubu/APC

- SP Akpabio failed to deliver Akwa Ibom for Tinubu/APC

- DSP Barau failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- NSA Ribadu failed to deliver Adamawa for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Speaker Abbas failed to deliver Kaduna for Tinubu/APC

- Sen Kalu failed to deliver Abia for Tinubu/APC

- Hope Uzodinma failed to deliver Imo for Tinubu/APC.

- Sen. Adams Oshimole failed to deliver Edo for Bola Tinubu/APC

- Ganduje failed to deliver Kano for Tinubu/APC

- Gov. Mai Mala failed to deliver Yobe for Tinubu/APC

- Alkali failed to deliver Gombe for Tinubu/APC

- Sen. Wammako failed to deliver Sokoto for Tinubu/APC

- Oyetola failed to deliver Osun for Tinubu/APC

- Dave Umahi failed to deliver Ebonyi for Tinubu/APC

Are those Obi's 2023 votes kept in a wardrobe? Who told you those votes are still intact? You do not understand the dynamic of Nigerian politics.The gale of defections in some southern states has really altered your predictions. If APC wins Osun governorship of 2026, Atiku cannot repeat his victory of 2023 In the state. I agree Atiku is a formidable candidate but he is defeat able. Obi is also a candidate who enjoys ethno-reloigious sentiment, he would also be defeated.

kunle4toyeyaho:
Are those Obi's 2023 votes kept in a wardrobe? Who told you those votes are still intact? You do not understand the dynamic of Nigerian politics.The gale of defections in some southern states has really altered your predictions. If APC wins Osun governorship of 2026, Atiku cannot repeat his victory of 2023 In the state. I agree Atiku is a formidable candidate but he is defeat able. Obi is also a candidate who enjoys ethno-reloigious sentiment, he would also be defeated.

No doubt, Tinubu MAY do better in the Southwest this time around but that's where it stops. I promise you that he has lost more voters in the North than he has gained in the South. Obi on the other hand, has barely lost any voter outside of the Southwest. The 3-horse race may have favoured Tinubu in 2023 but it will now be a disadvantage to him in 2027. This is because he and Obi will scramble for the Southern vote while Atiku may likely consolidate on his Northern base, which has the advantage of numbers. Tinubu's Southern agenda as a strategy to galvanise support will not fly with Obi also being on the ballot.

I have simply proved to you that the gale of defections will have little to no impact on the electorate's voting pattern. Infact, in 2027 barring rigging, the opposite will be true. The politicians are simply doing that for personal protection, succumbing to blackmail or for promised financial gains.

anonimi:
What Nigerians?
The 10% of our population who are tribal voters, and whose votes are easily bought with stomach infrastructure?

How much work have you been doing to increase voter participation while reducing tribalism and stomach infrastructure in our politics?

True talk my brr💯

Akinboboz:
One thing I hate about this people politicians is ....you know what to do ,why can't you humble yourself and request to see the president and talk to him on what he's doing and you felt it's not the way it should be...tell him the best way you think the issue could have been handle... everyone can't be president,the earlier we realize this...the best for the country.....not like when they get there things will change drastically....well you can ask president Tinubu about it.....2011 and 2012....Even former VP Atiku,he want to be president to fulfill his own life ambition also....just like current president.

Why did tinibu and his apc gang not also go and talk to gej in 2015 instead of playing opposition politic?

Normal thing. The grass is greener on the other side.