₦airaland Forum

NIGERIA’S headline inflation eased to 18.02 per cent in September, according to the latest NBS data, marking the first time in over three years that inflation has fallen below 20 per cent.

This technical milestone, supported by six consecutive months of tapering inflation rates and aided significantly by the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index, reinforces the official narrative of economic stabilisation.

However, any celebration will be premature. These numbers belie a gaping disconnect from the reality experienced by millions of Nigerians enduring escalating costs of living, stagnant incomes, and widespread poverty.

The rebasing exercise, updating the CPI base year to 2024, has recalibrated inflation calculations to reflect contemporary consumption patterns better, contributing to the statistical drop in headline inflation in January from 34.8 per cent to 24.48 per cent.

The recent cut in the Monetary Policy Rate by the CBN to 27.0 per cent, the first in five years, and relative stability in the forex market have contributed to tempering inflationary pressures, especially in food prices.

These signify policy successes, prompting economists to anticipate possible further rate cuts to stimulate economic growth.

Yet, while statistical data suggests improvement, the lived experience of ordinary Nigerians is marked by persistent economic hardship.

SB Morgen Intelligence says the “non-linear and fragile” moderation in food prices in Q3 2025 was driven mainly by seasonal harvests (of staples such as maize, cassava, yams and onions), rather than structural improvements and has done little to ease the strain on households as insecurity and poor logistics continue to drive the country’s food inflation.

In its latest report, titled ‘Jollof Index Q3 2025: A Tale of Two Economies’, SBM said the national average Jollof index (cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice) fell by just 3.17 per cent from N27,528 in June to N26,656 in September.

“Nigeria’s food affordability crisis remains acute. The easing of inflation is largely statistical, not practical,” the report said.

The research firm partially credited the easing momentum to government interventions, notably import waivers for key food items, which improved market supply, and a more stable naira, which helped curb the cost of imported inputs.

These findings reinforce a recent World Bank country assessment that classifies 139 million Nigerians as remaining trapped in poverty due to sustained inflationary pressure amid shrinking real incomes, with 50 per cent of households spending up to 70 per cent of income on food alone.

Critics argue that inflation in Nigeria is largely cost-push rather than demand-driven, fuelled by structural factors like elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, insecurity in food-producing regions, and heavy dependence on imports.

The removal of fuel subsidies and the managed floating of the naira have, despite aiming to restore fiscal discipline, exacerbated cost pressures. Petrol prices are five times the pre-May 2023 figures.

Many Nigerians express scepticism toward official inflation figures, perceiving a disconnect between government-reported statistics and their own realities of price hikes at markets and fuel stations.

Independent inflation trackers report significantly higher inflation rates than government data, further deepening public distrust.

Indeed, President Bola Tinubu’s inflation target of 15 per cent for 2025 and the dramatic drop in inflation numbers in recent months fuel speculations that the government is working towards a predetermined end.

Addressing this disconnect and the underlying inflation problem requires more than statistical adjustments or monetary policy tweaks.

Yemi Kale, group chief economist and MD of Afreximbank, notes that economic stability often benefits investors and businesses first, who might start posting great results, but it can take months or even years before this translates into job creation, higher wages, or cheaper goods for citizens.

Policymakers must, therefore, pursue a comprehensive strategy that tackles Nigeria’s structural economic challenges and abridges the time for reform benefits to materialise.

This includes reviving domestic agricultural and industrial production to reduce dependence on imports, stabilising the FX market, improving security in agricultural zones, and investing in energy and transport infrastructure to lower production and distribution costs.

Strengthening social safety nets to protect the vulnerable and ensuring fiscal discipline with transparent governance are also critical.

In essence, the real measure of success will not be an inflation figure on paper but tangible improvements in Nigerians’ ability to afford necessities without distress.

Punch Editorial Board

datola:
I think it connects with reality because prices if goods are really dropping

datola:
I think the figures are beginning to connect with realities because prices of goods are really dropping.

chucks185:
Give examples of such goods the prices are dropping

Smartcitizen:
Tinubu supporters will argue with you to their grave.

Suffering and pretending is such a miserable life to live.


🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

YesDaddyTill203:
These biased olodos are clowns. The Numbers will eventually reflect on the street. It's a matter of time.

When it does, they will change mouth and come up with another talking point. They never disappoint.

chucks185:
Give examples of such goods the prices are dropping

Smartcitizen:
Matter of time?

Hahaha!

You have started again this time,

The same thing you were saying under Buhari.

Make small shame catch you people abeg.

Nawaoo!

🥱🥱🥱

YesDaddyTill203:
Moomooo. You guys are crying already that prices are going down, before it was denied previously, now it's obvious and can't be denied again. That's a good example of a matter of time.
By next year, you guys will have to find something else to cry and wail about.

datola:
I think the figures are beginning to connect with realities because prices of goods are really dropping.

Deltafirstson:
Although the pump price of fuel was N197 when President Bola Tinubu took over on May 29, 2023, the product now sells for N617 per litre – less than two months after.

In his inaugural address, Tinubu announced that subsidy was gone, fulfilling a promise that all leading presidential candidates made during the campaign.

However, pump price of fuel hit N537 per litre days after Tinubu ended subsidy.

On Tuesday, the price climbed further to N617, a development that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL) attributed to “market forces”.

Nigerians have been lamenting the hardship occasioned by fuel price hike. Amid the lamentation, a video where Tinubu campaigned to slash the price of fuel went into circulation.

Checks by Daily Trust affirmed the authenticity of the video uploaded on the YouTube page of Channels Television.

At his campaign rally in Abeokuta, Ogun State capital, on January 25, 2023, Tinubu spoke on a number of issues, but those of fuel scarcity and naira redesign made the headlines.

However, Tinubu who spoke in Yoruba language, also assured the crowd that though people were saying petrol price would hit N200, it would be reviewed downward under him.

“The great Nigerian youths, the great Nigerian students, the confident Nigerian youths. This is a revolution. This election is a revolution. They are plotting, but they will fail. They said fuel price will increase and reach N200 per litre. Go and relax, we will bring it down,” he had said in the 7th minute of the video.

King Wasiu Ayinde Marshall, a Fuji musician who performed at the rally, interrupted the president’s speech with chants as the crowd cheered.

On the campaign podium with the president were Vice-President Kashim Shettima; Pa Bisi Akande, interim National Chairman of the APC; Femi Gbajabiamila, Chief of Staff to the President; Senator Gbenga Daniel; among other bigwigs of the ruling party.

Tinubu went further to say Nigerians would defy the acute fuel scarcity at the time and trek to cast their votes.

“The great Nigerian youths, the great Nigerian students, the confident Nigerian youths. This is a revolution. This election is a revolution. They are plotting, but they will fail. They said fuel price will increase and reach N200/N500 per litre. Go and relax, we will crash the prices,” he had said.

https://dailytrust.com/breaking-video-of-tinubu-campaigning-to-crash-fuel-

he had said in the 7th minute of the video.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JH8CC_JdUA

datola:
I think the figures are beginning to connect with realities because prices of goods are really dropping.

Kukutente23:
Tinubu is luckier than Buhari
Nigeria has had very healthy harvest this year
Oil price though below the budget benchmark is at over 100% above Buhari's at this time of his administration
Nigerians have swallowed the bitter pills of his reforms with a lame whimper
But unfortunately, he's not doing better than Buhari in improving the living condition of Nigerians
I wonder what next year will look like when the excess food in circulation dries up especially in January. Nigerians should brace up for rise in foodstuff prices then
If the tax laws then happen as its being bandied, that will be a double jeopardy
Nigerians should be wary of next year

datola:
I think the figures are beginning to connect with realities because prices of goods are really dropping.

Itzlinda:
Rice. Millet. Corn. Food stuff prices are decreasing, we only need govt to force dangote and other guys to drop prices