₦airaland Forum

Is Tinubu Waging a Quiet War on the Muslim North – or Is It All Coincidence? - by: Mohammed Bello Doka - December 2025

Is this a carefully calibrated political recalibration ahead of 2027 — or is the Muslim North being deliberately edged out of Nigeria’s power structure, one appointment, one budget line, one silence at a time?

Two years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu rose to power on the back of a controversial Muslim–Muslim ticket, a growing unease is spreading across Northern Nigeria. The same region that absorbed political fire, international criticism, and domestic outrage to deliver victory in 2023 is now asking an uncomfortable question: has the pact been broken?

No allegations are made here. No motives are imputed. These are facts, patterns, statements and silences — laid side by side — allowing Nigerians to draw their own conclusions.

*From Kingmakers to Casualties: The Vanishing Power of Muslim Northerners*

Start with the visible political shifts.

One after another, key Muslim Northern figures have exited strategic positions — party leadership, defence, security oversight — often replaced by Northern Christians, Middle Belt figures, or Southern allies.

Former Kano governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, a pillar of Tinubu’s Northern alliance and national chairman of the APC, was pushed out. Official reasons ranged from health to party needs. Unofficially, it was widely acknowledged as a power reset. The result? The ruling party structure heading toward 2027 slipped from the grip of the Muslim North.

Then came the Defence Ministry. Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, former Jigawa governor and Muslim Northerner, resigned. In his place emerged a Northern Christian from Southern Kaduna, a region long positioned as a counterweight to core Muslim Northern influence.

Senate security leadership was reshuffled. Committees dissolved. Sensitive oversight quietly reassigned. Again, no accusation — but the direction of travel was impossible to miss.

Each event in isolation is defensible. Together, they look like patterned displacement.

*_Coincidence — or calculus?_*

*Insecurity Everywhere, Urgency Nowhere*

Now consider insecurity.

Northern Nigeria is bleeding.

Villages are emptied. Farms abandoned. Schools shut. Entire communities negotiating their survival with armed groups. In some states, local governments barely function beyond state capitals.

Yet critics increasingly point to what they describe as a lukewarm presidential posture toward Northern insecurity.

Here’s the contrast repeatedly raised in policy circles and political conversations across the North:

A single road project in Lagos is measured in trillions of naira.

The combined security votes of all 19 Northern governors do not approach that figure.

What does that say about national priorities?

Is the region producing most of the nation’s insecurity being structurally underfunded — or structurally abandoned?

If insecurity persists at its current scale, another question looms dangerously close:

> Can large parts of the North even conduct elections by 2027?

*Negotiating With Bandits, Funding Instability?*

Equally troubling to many Northerners is the continued reliance on the same political middlemen to negotiate with bandits — negotiations that often end with cash payments, concessions, and temporary

*Who benefits?*

Does this approach pacify violence — or institutionalise it?

And if insecurity renders swathes of the North electorally impotent, is that an unintended consequence — or a brutal political advantage for those already saying Northern votes may no longer be necessary?

*The Trump Factor: External Pressure, Internal Consequences*

Recent accusations and rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and allied Western voices have added new fuel to suspicion.

Within political circles, the argument is being quietly made that international perception, particularly around religion and security, is forcing Tinubu to “rebalance optics” — especially by elevating Christian Northerners and Southern figures in sensitive roles.

But to nervous Northern observers, it looks less like rebranding and more like displacement accelerated under foreign cover.

Is global pressure now a convenient excuse to redraw the internal religious map of power?

*“Tinubu Doesn’t Need the North”: Arrogance or Strategy?*

Perhaps the most incendiary element in this unfolding drama is what is being said — openly — by those close to power.

Reports persist of Tinubu’s inner circle openly boasting that the president may not need Northern votes in 2027.

*On social media, the tone is even cruder:*

Southern voices declare openly that Muslim Northern votes are no longer decisive

Some cheer Northern discontent as politically irrelevant

Others openly frame 2027 as a Southern consolidation project

*Is this reckless bravado — or strategic messaging designed to psychologically demobilise a voting bloc?*

And if these declarations are false, why hasn’t the presidency forcefully disowned them?

Silence, after all, is also a statement.

*Betrayal From Within: The Complicit Northern Elite*

Yet perhaps the most painful question is not about Tinubu — but about the North itself.

Where are the Northern governors? Where are the Northern ministers? Where are the Northern lawmakers?

These are men with private jets, foreign properties, and enormous personal5 fortunes — yet they appear incapable of challenging policies that leave their people exposed, displaced and electorally endangered.

*Why?*

Because confronting power threatens proximity. Because silence preserves access. Because feeding bottles matter more than bleeding communities.

As villages fall and citizens flee, Northern elites close ranks around Abuja, not around their people.

And so the Muslim North bleeds — quietly.

The Shettima Question: Is the Muslim–Muslim Ticket Already Dead?

Hovering over every appointment and silence is the unspoken question of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Calls are growing — openly — for Tinubu to replace Shettima in 2027 with a Northern Christian running mate. Some argue it’s about balance. Others call it inevitability.

Northern Muslim groups, however, see something else:

The slow dismantling of the coalition that delivered 2023

The preparation of ground for a post–Muslim North electoral strategy

A political future where the North’s role is reduced, not renegotiated

If Shettima goes, many believe, the message will be unmistakable.

*Pattern, Pressure—or Quiet War?*

There is no leaked memo. No fiery declaration. No official war.

*But politics is rarely announced. It is felt.*

It is felt in budget lines. In appointments. In silences. In insecurity unmanaged. In elites unmoved. In voices online mocking Northern relevance. In whispers from inner circles calculating electoral math without the North.

So Nigerians must ask — fearlessly — the question many are already whispering:

> Is President Tinubu waging a quiet war on the Muslim North — or are we watching coincidence pile upon coincidence until neglect becomes destiny?

The answer may define not just 2027 — but the future cohesion of the Nigerian state.

And history has shown, again and again: when a region feels disposable, the consequences are never quiet.

©️ Mohammed Bello Doka


https://www.facebook.com/100044399770234/posts/pfbid0XjfJ3Dt6BGFBB425GCAr9DLWxuGs66tfKjf6jZytaMnRFUvsCXyieVCPn61PETQAl/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

El rufai now playing religious politics

El rufai now playing religious politics after moving hear and there to no avail

The author of the above piece should be bold enough to write a rejoinder to the appointment made by president Tinubu.

The appointment made by president Tinubu in the last 2 years, which one is purely based on religion?

More like it

LagosOrigin:
More like it

Trust politicians at your own risk

E be like say some people never still understand the meaning of 'Muslim-Muslim ticket abi they are only pretending to not understand it?

Hahahahahaha see frustration.

Sorry oo el rufai d pain is much I can understand pls always check your BP to avoid sudden unexpected breaking news.

So now it's Tinubu fighting the Muslim North what a statement.

You imported fulani jihaddist, you are the first to officially paid ransome to fulani millitia and today the demons you imported are consuming you and your region and you blaming a man from the SW for you insensitiveness and evil deeds.

Abeg where is this epistles when Buhari was in power for eight years? Una never see anything yet. Buhari is last the last president of fulani origin.
How can a minority invaders will be having a say in Nigeria? El rufai, Tambuwal, Malami, Atiku think they can collect power?

The answer is simple. The North is being punished for the 2023 election.

We can no longer continue to put characters who can’t be trusted with sensitive and classified security information in key security leadership positions. Ribadu is Fulani and he’s the one coordinating all our security architecture. He’s a very trusted fellow. Those removed can’t be trusted so they had to go. We can’t continue to play politics with security.

Am not an APC fan but this man is sick

NO COMMENT

There they go again.

This road leads to nowhere, Mallam, abort mission.

Educated, non educated, exposed, not exposed.

An average Nigerian is either tribalistic or a religious sentimental person. Or worse he’s both.

Tinubu waging war against the Muslim north and also accused of an orchestrated genocide against Christian
Which one will Ibos pick to run with for 2027?

They have not seen anything, yet.

Let's wait and watch as events unfold!

What's up with Katsina -Maradi railway

I don't think elrufai wrote this

If this piece is true, then El rufai has finally slides into the religious potopoto (mud) where he plays best.

El-Rufai is d@ft. Yes! So what if it is a carefully calibrated political recalibration ahead of 2027?

You too recalibrate naa. Who is stopping you?

Abi when you were recalibrating Buhari to calibrate & shun Tinubu after he brought Buhari to power, who challenged you? Nobody.

Also when you were busy recalibrating the people & king of Southern Kaduna with your Bandits mercenary, nobody challenged you.

Therefore, if Tinubu is recalibrating, you too, recalibrate and the best calibrator shall win. Shikena!

Biodun556:
El rufai now playing religious politics

Ask him what the religious North has done to its people. I don't support Tinubu but the North stinks of hypocrisy. Someone thought I was going off the tangle when I said the Northern elite have disappointed Sardauna's legacy and vision. Every region was selfish in the 60s but it was to make their own better. The ones we have today see their people suffering and allow it go on. Ordinary education they can't give their people, the girl child, they allow them to be taken by so-called bandits. They don't think Science and technology, aviation, and so much. The agriculture that brings us food, they let terrorism fester. What religious North? Isn't it the Muslim Muslim ticket enough? Cry cry politics. They have nothing to divide us against again, now they want to remind us of the same religion they used to campaign. I dislike hypocrisy Smh

Biodun556:
Is Tinubu Waging a Quiet War on the Muslim North – or Is It All Coincidence? - by: Mohammed Bello Doka - December 2025

Is this a carefully calibrated political recalibration ahead of 2027 — or is the Muslim North being deliberately edged out of Nigeria’s power structure, one appointment, one budget line, one silence at a time?

Two years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu rose to power on the back of a controversial Muslim–Muslim ticket, a growing unease is spreading across Northern Nigeria. The same region that absorbed political fire, international criticism, and domestic outrage to deliver victory in 2023 is now asking an uncomfortable question: has the pact been broken?

No allegations are made here. No motives are imputed. These are facts, patterns, statements and silences — laid side by side — allowing Nigerians to draw their own conclusions.

*From Kingmakers to Casualties: The Vanishing Power of Muslim Northerners*

Start with the visible political shifts.

One after another, key Muslim Northern figures have exited strategic positions — party leadership, defence, security oversight — often replaced by Northern Christians, Middle Belt figures, or Southern allies.

Former Kano governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, a pillar of Tinubu’s Northern alliance and national chairman of the APC, was pushed out. Official reasons ranged from health to party needs. Unofficially, it was widely acknowledged as a power reset. The result? The ruling party structure heading toward 2027 slipped from the grip of the Muslim North.

Then came the Defence Ministry. Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, former Jigawa governor and Muslim Northerner, resigned. In his place emerged a Northern Christian from Southern Kaduna, a region long positioned as a counterweight to core Muslim Northern influence.

Senate security leadership was reshuffled. Committees dissolved. Sensitive oversight quietly reassigned. Again, no accusation — but the direction of travel was impossible to miss.

Each event in isolation is defensible. Together, they look like patterned displacement.

*_Coincidence — or calculus?_*

*Insecurity Everywhere, Urgency Nowhere*

Now consider insecurity.

Northern Nigeria is bleeding.

Villages are emptied. Farms abandoned. Schools shut. Entire communities negotiating their survival with armed groups. In some states, local governments barely function beyond state capitals.

Yet critics increasingly point to what they describe as a lukewarm presidential posture toward Northern insecurity.

Here’s the contrast repeatedly raised in policy circles and political conversations across the North:

A single road project in Lagos is measured in trillions of naira.

The combined security votes of all 19 Northern governors do not approach that figure.

What does that say about national priorities?

Is the region producing most of the nation’s insecurity being structurally underfunded — or structurally abandoned?

If insecurity persists at its current scale, another question looms dangerously close:

> Can large parts of the North even conduct elections by 2027?

*Negotiating With Bandits, Funding Instability?*

Equally troubling to many Northerners is the continued reliance on the same political middlemen to negotiate with bandits — negotiations that often end with cash payments, concessions, and temporary

*Who benefits?*

Does this approach pacify violence — or institutionalise it?

And if insecurity renders swathes of the North electorally impotent, is that an unintended consequence — or a brutal political advantage for those already saying Northern votes may no longer be necessary?

*The Trump Factor: External Pressure, Internal Consequences*

Recent accusations and rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump and allied Western voices have added new fuel to suspicion.

Within political circles, the argument is being quietly made that international perception, particularly around religion and security, is forcing Tinubu to “rebalance optics” — especially by elevating Christian Northerners and Southern figures in sensitive roles.

But to nervous Northern observers, it looks less like rebranding and more like displacement accelerated under foreign cover.

Is global pressure now a convenient excuse to redraw the internal religious map of power?

*“Tinubu Doesn’t Need the North”: Arrogance or Strategy?*

Perhaps the most incendiary element in this unfolding drama is what is being said — openly — by those close to power.

Reports persist of Tinubu’s inner circle openly boasting that the president may not need Northern votes in 2027.

*On social media, the tone is even cruder:*

Southern voices declare openly that Muslim Northern votes are no longer decisive

Some cheer Northern discontent as politically irrelevant

Others openly frame 2027 as a Southern consolidation project

*Is this reckless bravado — or strategic messaging designed to psychologically demobilise a voting bloc?*

And if these declarations are false, why hasn’t the presidency forcefully disowned them?

Silence, after all, is also a statement.

*Betrayal From Within: The Complicit Northern Elite*

Yet perhaps the most painful question is not about Tinubu — but about the North itself.

Where are the Northern governors? Where are the Northern ministers? Where are the Northern lawmakers?

These are men with private jets, foreign properties, and enormous personal5 fortunes — yet they appear incapable of challenging policies that leave their people exposed, displaced and electorally endangered.

*Why?*

Because confronting power threatens proximity. Because silence preserves access. Because feeding bottles matter more than bleeding communities.

As villages fall and citizens flee, Northern elites close ranks around Abuja, not around their people.

And so the Muslim North bleeds — quietly.

The Shettima Question: Is the Muslim–Muslim Ticket Already Dead?

Hovering over every appointment and silence is the unspoken question of Vice President Kashim Shettima.

Calls are growing — openly — for Tinubu to replace Shettima in 2027 with a Northern Christian running mate. Some argue it’s about balance. Others call it inevitability.

Northern Muslim groups, however, see something else:

The slow dismantling of the coalition that delivered 2023

The preparation of ground for a post–Muslim North electoral strategy

A political future where the North’s role is reduced, not renegotiated

If Shettima goes, many believe, the message will be unmistakable.

*Pattern, Pressure—or Quiet War?*

There is no leaked memo. No fiery declaration. No official war.

*But politics is rarely announced. It is felt.*

It is felt in budget lines. In appointments. In silences. In insecurity unmanaged. In elites unmoved. In voices online mocking Northern relevance. In whispers from inner circles calculating electoral math without the North.

So Nigerians must ask — fearlessly — the question many are already whispering:

> Is President Tinubu waging a quiet war on the Muslim North — or are we watching coincidence pile upon coincidence until neglect becomes destiny?

The answer may define not just 2027 — but the future cohesion of the Nigerian state.

And history has shown, again and again: when a region feels disposable, the consequences are never quiet.

©️ Mohammed Bello Doka


https://www.facebook.com/100044399770234/posts/pfbid0XjfJ3Dt6BGFBB425GCAr9DLWxuGs66tfKjf6jZytaMnRFUvsCXyieVCPn61PETQAl/?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

him go lament tire

El Rufai should continue crying, no one would listen

This is a very insightful piece. Thank you for sharing OP.

Mtcheww. Kingmakers indeed. What has that benefitted Nigeria? Misplaced priority. Most of these security challenges we are facing are from that region.

Blankstare:
I don't think elrufai wrote this

He shared it

HgAkpobomeEr:
The answer is simple. The North is being punished for the 2023 election.

Wandering Wailer.

SixSeven:
Ask him what the religious North has done to its people. I don't support Tinubu but the North stinks of hypocrisy. Someone thought I was going off the tangle when I said the Northern elite have disappointed Sardauna's legacy and vision. Every region was selfish in the 60s but it was to make their own better. The ones we have today see their people suffering and allow it go on. Ordinary education they can't give their people, the girl child, they allow them to be taken by so-called bandits. They don't think Science and technology, aviation, and so much. The agriculture that brings us food, they let terrorism fester. What religious North? Isn't it the Muslim Muslim ticket enough? Cry cry politics. They have nothing to divide us against again, now they want to remind us of the same religion they used to campaign. I dislike hypocrisy Smh

Treasury Bandits have taken over 🤷🏿, I never knew Ahmadu Bello was an advocate of girl child education. Barbarianss are holding the north hostage 😥

Anither563:
This is a very insightful piece. Thank you for sharing OP.

Trump will finish them for Tinubu.

This short thing no go let people hear word. So the Muslim/Muslim ticket no favor them again?