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2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet - Politics (2) - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralPolitics2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet (1584 Views)

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Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by mrvitalis(m): 8:08am On Jan 04
Savedday2:
Is almost impossible for Tinubu to be defeated because of the kind of person he his. Tinubu is the kind of person that can do anything just to win. And is the kind that can think outside the box just to win.

Take for example, how he won the apc primary.

When no one was expecting him to win the 2023 election, he use INEC to outsmart everyone.

He even use his health, appointment to deceive the Northerners like Elrufi and others
Tinubu can't rig core North, can't right South East... That's 3 zones he can't manipulate

South South ADC have people to protect their votes
Middle belt same

South West is the only Place Tinubu can manipulate
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Basic123: 8:26am On Jan 04
Godfullsam:
Overtime, the SE votes have been considered to be inconsequential.

I can't remember any time someone lost in a presidential election because he didn't get enough votes from the SE.
Tinubu and buhari didn't get enough votes from that region and they still won.
Obi got 99.9% votes and he didn't win.
But OBI can right SW and core North while ATIKU can rig SW and SE right

You guys analysis is too watery.You are basing your analysis on just tribal factor of all the factors that influence election results.

Election outcome is always multifactorial!
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 9:10am On Jan 04
Godfullsam:
Where is your proof that Obasanjo and yaradua got 99.9% votes in the SE ?

Stop giving out wrong information with confidence.

You created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created. Now you want others to believe the same lie.
If you believe my point is wrong, the proper response would have been to present verifiable counter-facts, not emotional outrage. You didn’t provide any data to disprove the substance of my argument.

I may have exaggerated the 99.9% for emphasis, but the core fact remains undisputed: the South East overwhelmingly supported Obasanjo in 1999 and 2003 even when an Igbo son, Odumegwu Ojukwu, was on the ballot. The region also gave massive support to Yar’Adua in 2007, and repeated the same pattern with Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 and 2015.
These are not opinions; they are reflected in election results. So instead of nitpicking a figure while ignoring the reality it represents, provide alternative facts that actually contradict the historical voting pattern, if you have any.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by kunle4toyeyaho: 9:23am On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
It you are too naive .No body is scheming to replace Tinibu from the North West .
North west and south east are currently the Most hostile regions to the Failed Tinibu presidency.
I assure you the North West Man doesn't see the Muslim North Easterner as a different person .
The 7 North West state
5 South East state
6 North East state
FCT .
Platuea and Niger = 20 state
It impossible for Tinibu to win this state #Facts
Secondly this are highest vote producing state effectively he can't also get the highest number of vote cast .
Haaaa! I laugh in Swahili. There is no state in the Northwest where Tinubu will not score atleast 30% of votes cast. The Southeast will give him the required 25% despite the hostility,Obi 'yes daddily' influencing the voting pattern of Igbo land would not work this time around more so he's coming as a running mate.Are you saying Atiku would win North Central? Tinubu is even more popular among Northern Christians than Atiku. I agree it would be keenly contested but Tinubu is winning this.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Godfullsam(m): 11:19am On Jan 04
Ofunaofu:
If you believe my point is wrong, the proper response would have been to present verifiable counter-facts, not emotional outrage. You didn’t provide any data to disprove the substance of my argument.

I may have exaggerated the 99.9% for emphasis, but the core fact remains undisputed: the South East overwhelmingly supported Obasanjo in 1999 and 2003 even when an Igbo son, Odumegwu Ojukwu, was on the ballot. The region also gave massive support to Yar’Adua in 2007, and repeated the same pattern with Goodluck Jonathan in 2011 and 2015.
These are not opinions; they are reflected in election results. So instead of nitpicking a figure while ignoring the reality it represents, provide alternative facts that actually contradict the historical voting pattern, if you have any.
You have already corrected yourself by saying the 99.9% votes was exergarated by you. That 99.9% votes only exist in your head and you are trying hard to pass it down for others to believe.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Godfullsam(m): 11:23am On Jan 04
Basic123:
But OBI can right SW and core North while ATIKU can rig SW and SE right

You guys analysis is too watery.You are basing your analysis on just tribal factor of all the factors that influence election results.

Election outcome is always multifactorial!
If you truly believe that election results are determined by many factors, why do you think that a particular candidate can not win an election because the he won't get votes from the SE ?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Ofunaofu: 11:33am On Jan 04
Godfullsam:
You have already corrected yourself by saying the 99.9% votes was exergarated by you. That 99.9% votes only exist in your head and you are trying hard to pass it down for others to believe.
Did the south east give Peter Obi 99.9% votes?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Godfullsam(m): 11:36am On Jan 04
Ofunaofu:
Did the south east give Peter Obi 99.9% votes?
Did you know one single person who did not vote for obi in the SE ?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 11:44am On Jan 04
kunle4toyeyaho:
Haaaa! I laugh in Swahili. There is no state in the Northwest where Tinubu will not score atleast 30% of votes cast. The Southeast will give him the required 25% despite the hostility,Obi 'yes daddily' influencing the voting pattern of Igbo land would not work this time around more so he's coming as a running mate.Are you saying Atiku would win North Central? Tinubu is even more popular among Northern Christians than Atiku. I agree it would be keenly contested but Tinubu is winning this.
List 3 reasons why he will get 30 percent in Northwest and 25 percent in the south east !
We have over 10 Major reason why he deserves zero .
Nepotism and yorubaization
Hyper Inflation
Insecurity
US Conviction
Cost of living Crisis
Baised infrastructural development of Northern Nigeria.
One party state intention
Devaluation of naira
Removals of subsides
Corruption
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by kunle4toyeyaho: 12:20pm On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
List 3 reasons why he will get 30 percent in Northwest and 25 percent in the south east !
We have over 10 Major reason why he deserves zero .
Nepotism and yorubaization
Hyper Inflation
Insecurity
US Conviction
Cost of living Crisis
Baised infrastructural development of Northern Nigeria.
One party state intention
Devaluation of naira
Removals of subsides
Corruption
Let me educate you. There is nothing like nepotism here. Appointments are done on geopolitical zone basis and not the tribe of the individual. If you agree that an Igbo man from Delta State Can take a south south slot,why should a Yoruba man from Kwara or Kogi be denied the opportunity of North Central when the need arises?
Devaluation: Flotation of Naira was the only way out to manage the looming economic crisis at the time he assumed office.Between 1999 and 2023, Nigeria wasted $388billion to defend Naira and it got to a level where late Buhari was selling crude oil in advance to defend Naira and pay subsidy. Is that what your candidate plan to continue with?Hence,the devaluation
Subsidy removal: Do you think a reasonable investor would bring his money into our oil sector if government still dictates the pump price through subsidy payment? The full deregulation of oil sector has brought many fortunes. Can you see the number of people trying bro establish refineries? This alone will is creating many jobse.g. the 4000trucks bought by Dangote has created atleast 4000 driving jobs
Biased infrastructure: More roads are being constructed in Northern Nigeria than southern part. The Lag- Calabar coastal road connects more states in the Southsouth than Southwest. So, where is the bias?
One- party state: With the new electors law,it is becoming risky to seek for PDP ticket at the moment. Which faction of the party is authentic is unknown to members. This is the reason why Osun Governor sought for Accord party's ticket instead. Above all,it is natural to gravitate towards the ruling party. Did Tinubu coerce anybody to join APC?
Hyperinflation: This has since been brought down. Various fiscal and monetary policies deployed have brought down the inflation. The inflation was a resultant effect of various reforms by this government.
US conviction: No record of criminal activity against him. The forfeiture was a civil matter ,which has no effect.
Note: Party loyalty bis the major reason vwhy he will garner 30% and 25% in Northwest and Southeast. You think some Northern politicians would work for Atiku who will throw them out of aspiration for another? They will rather go for southerner so that they can also contest when it is the turn of the North.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Akpakomiza2: 2:21pm On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
The entire votes from the Southwest has been in range of 2.3m to 2.7m all for Buhari and Tinibu this a reoccurring decimal it will not change .this the only sure banker for Tinibu (Block votes ) Now Makinde a Fellow Yoruba will Appeal more to younger voters from the Southwest only ...for Bala Mohammed he cannot get 100k votes in his Bauchi and the entire North .So Makinde is cutting of Tinibu 2.5m voters in his yoruba enclaves .

All the 6.8m that voted Atiku are still rebellious against Tinibu and APC
Additional Tinibu 5.8M from the North that proper his to presidency is gone based on poor performance and tribalist.the Muslim Muslim manipulation is gone ..this votes are going to ADC and Atiku ( 4m )
The Kwakwaso spoiler of 1.4m from the North is going to Atiku/ADC
Makinde is a Spoiler for Tinibu like Kwakwaso was a Spoiler for Atiku .
The south eastern vote of 3 Million is going to obi .if this can be fused to ADC ( Atiku obi tickets) is bye bye Tinibu .
It will be 14m votes similar to buhari winning strategy.North brining in 10m +4m from south eastern.
From the south South Tinibu can only get 2m Max then few votes of 1m from Central
Total 6m
You did this nonsensical permutation in 2023 and failed woefully. Tinubu has gained new voters in the north central, South south and even north east. The kwankwaso votes will remain with kwankwaso or scatter like buhari votes. Atiku took a distant third in Kano which means Kano voters dislike him so nothing for him. It is a walkover for Tinubu
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Akpakomiza2: 2:28pm On Jan 04
mrvitalis:
Tinubu can't rig core North, can't right South East... That's 3 zones he can't manipulate

South South ADC have people to protect their votes
Middle belt same

South West is the only Place Tinubu can manipulate
ADC in SS does not have what it takes to match Tinubu, he will smother them. Tinubu will overrun kwara, kogi, benue, plateau, sokoto.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Akpakomiza2: 2:30pm On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
List 3 reasons why he will get 30 percent in Northwest and 25 percent in the south east !
We have over 10 Major reason why he deserves zero .
Nepotism and yorubaization
Hyper Inflation
Insecurity
US Conviction
Cost of living Crisis
Baised infrastructural development of Northern Nigeria.
One party state intention
Devaluation of naira
Removals of subsides
Corruption
I believe the 2023 elections and 2019 polls showed you the above factors don't matter much. Nigerians may not like Tinubu but they dont like Atiku or obi either. A larger number of voters will prefer Tinubu finish his tenure
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 2:47pm On Jan 04
Akpakomiza2:
I believe the 2023 elections and 2019 polls showed you the above factors don't matter much. Nigerians may not like Tinubu but they dont like Atiku or obi either. A larger number of voters will prefer Tinubu finish his tenure
hogwash points .
They don't like who are the 22m citizens that voted for them
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by mrvitalis(m): 2:49pm On Jan 04
Akpakomiza2:
ADC in SS does not have what it takes to match Tinubu, he will smother them. Tinubu will overrun kwara, kogi, benue, plateau, sokoto.
Ok
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Akpakomiza2: 4:50pm On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
hogwash points .
They don't like who are the 22m citizens that voted for them
Tinubu cannot be defeated
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Burob: 4:55pm On Jan 04
Godfullsam:
Where is your proof that Obasanjo and yaradua got 99.9% votes in the SE ?

Stop giving out wrong information with confidence.

You created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created. Now you want others to believe the same lie.
That is Orlandoo, ofunaofu, DMerciful, MrVitalis & streetinvestor2 modus operandai.

Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Burob: 5:00pm On Jan 04
Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu cannot be defeated
Let them be deceiving themselves, they have forgotten so suddenly the anguish of 2023.

Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Burob: 5:02pm On Jan 04
Akpakomiza2:
ADC in SS does not have what it takes to match Tinubu, he will smother them. Tinubu will overrun kwara, kogi, benue, plateau, sokoto.

Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Burob: 5:08pm On Jan 04
mrvitalis:
Tinubu can't rig core North, can't right South East... That's 3 zones he can't manipulate

South South ADC have people to protect their votes Middle belt same

South West is the only Place Tinubu can manipulate
You created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created. Now you want others to believe the same lie.

Please mention just 1 prominent member of the ADC that u know from the South South that can withstand the rigging machinery of The APC?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Educationalserv: 5:35pm On Jan 04
Akpakomiza2:
Tinubu cannot be defeated
yarns you think you can ambush our psychology
Defeating Tinibu is a patriotic duty of all reasonable citizens
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by jyz200(m): 5:58pm On Jan 04
Everybody don turn political analyst
When all stake was against jagaban he won
Now as an incumbent lol he will lose very funny people
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by mrvitalis(m): 6:29pm On Jan 04
Burob:
You created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created. Now you want others to believe the same lie.

Please mention just 1 prominent member of the ADC that u know from the South South that can withstand the rigging machinery of The APC?
Omehia and Ameachi two former governors..
U want more?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Burob: 6:48pm On Jan 04
mrvitalis:
Omehia and Ameachi two former governors..
U want more?
Please stop clowning yourself, 2 ousted political jokers that Wike has relegated to the amateur league.

Like I told u initially, you created a lie in your head and manipulated your head to believe the lie you have created, now you want others to believe the same lie.
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Sheuns(m): 7:10pm On Jan 04
Savedday2:
Is almost impossible for Tinubu to be defeated because of the kind of person he his. Tinubu is the kind of person that can do anything just to win. And is the kind that can think outside the box just to win.

Take for example, how he won the apc primary.

When no one was expecting him to win the 2023 election, he use INEC to outsmart everyone.

He even use his health, appointment to deceive the Northerners like Elrufi and others
How is the ability to bribe your way thinking outside the box?
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Akpakomiza2: 10:48pm On Jan 04
Educationalserv:
yarns you think you can ambush our psychology
Defeating Tinibu is a patriotic duty of all reasonable citizens
Majority still prefer Tinubu
Re: 2027 Permutations: The Makinde–Bala “Spoiler” Theory Nobody Is Talking About Yet by Iamajike(f): 11:35pm On Jan 04
Ofunaofu:
I have consistently maintained that the only way Tinubu can win is through rigging, grabbing it, snatching it and running away with the mandate.


In a free, fair, and credible election, devoid of electoral banditry, thuggery, agberoism, and voter intimidation, Tinubu would not secure up to 500,000 votes nationwide.
Which of the Nigerian president have ever won a free and fair election and why should Tinubu the worst of them (allegedly) be different?
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