₦airaland Forum

NIGERIA’S JOURNEY TO A FOURTH REPUBLIC: A RESPONSE TO A SPEECH BY MALLAM EL-RUFAI

The recent keynote by Mallam Nasir El-Rufai at the 2026 Daily Trust Dialogue has highlighted a critical juncture in Nigeria's political evolution. While the former governor correctly identifies the habit of democracy as a milestone, his critique necessitates a deeper historical and contextual analysis.

Unlike Britain and the United States where democracy evolved organically, Nigeria inherited its democratic framework from Britain and later imitated the American model, and has had a First, Second, Third, and now Fourth Republic, all shaped by the ongoing struggle to reconcile imported Western structures with a complex internal reality.

Nigeria’s first attempt at self-rule (1960–1966) was a Westminster system inherited from the British. It was led by an elite class, many of whom were British-trained, who found themselves operating a winner-takes-all system that exacerbated ethnic tensions.

The system lacked the centuries of institutional culture present in London; instead of service, the state became a cake to be divided. The outcome was the collapse of the First Republic under the weight of census crises and regional riots, leading to the January 1966 coup. It proved that democratic inheritance without adaptation is a recipe for instability.

In 1979, Nigeria pivoted to the American Presidential model, hoping that a strong federal executive would unify the country. By the Second Republic (1979–1983), despite the new structure, the culture remained patronage-based. The failure was not the constitution, but the lack of institutional safeguards to prevent the massive corruption and electoral fraud that led to its 1983 collapse.

The Third Republic (1993) was a supervised transition that died in infancy. The annulment of the June 12 election remains the ultimate symbol of institutional fragility, where military whim overrode the democratic ballot.

Essentially, the Fourth Republic (1999–Present) did not start on a clean slate; it inherited a decayed infrastructure, struggling economy and a military-distorted federalism.

However, today’s challenges are unique. First, unlike the first, second and third republics, social media has democratized sectional voices. The youth are no longer silent; they demand instant dividends. Secondly, there is a disconnect between the slow grind of institutional reform and the urgent need for economic relief.

Most importantly and critically, Mallam El-Rufai represents the class of opportunistic intellectual politicians. He is a master of the system who has served at the highest levels of the BPE, the FCT, and Kaduna State. His critique of weaponizing security rings hollow to many, given his own record of governance.

While El-Rufai speaks of checks and balances from far-away Brussels, his tenure as Governor of Kaduna State (2015–2023) tells a different story. Under his leadership, Southern Kaduna became a flashpoint for killings and displacements, with critics accusing his administration of being slow to act or partisan in response. While serving as Governor, his administration supervised the arrest of journalists, activists, and lawyers including Luka Binniyat and Audu Maikori who challenged his policies.

El-Rufai fails to acknowledge the role the Northern political elite, of which he is a pillar, has played in the region's educational and security crises. Crying foul only when outside the corridors of power suggests that his advocacy is tied to his political exclusion rather than a newfound democratic zeal.

To move beyond form to substance, Nigeria must move past the rhetoric of elites like El-Rufai. Truly, institutions like INEC, EFCC, and the Judiciary must be funded through first-line charges from the federation account, with heads appointed by independent bodies rather than the President. The focus must shift from Abuja to the 36 states. The Fourth Republic fails when Governors act like Mallam El-Rufai, who was presumably an 'Emperor'.

Getting it right in the fourth republic requires implementing the 2017 APC Committee Report (which El-Rufai himself chaired) to devolve policing and resource control to states. It also requires building economic buffer systems and creating social safety nets that are institutionalized by law, not distributive palliatives at the whim of the executive.

The Fourth Republic will endure only if it ceases to be a revolving door for elite circulation and becomes a genuine instrument for human development.
Finally, it is important to note that the present administration has aggressively pivoted toward a market-driven economic framework, most visibly through the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates. These measures have fundamentally altered the trajectory of the Fourth Republic. They are not mere fiscal tweaks; they are structural shocks designed to recalibrate how Nigerians relate to the state.

By ending the fuel subsidy, the government has initiated a painful but necessary transition from a consumption-based economy to one that must prioritize production. It removed the “opiate” that long concealed the state’s failure to deliver real infrastructure. Similarly, dollar unification dismantled the multiple exchange-rate regime that sustained a rent-seeking elite—individuals who prospered simply by accessing official dollars and flipping them on the black market.

In stripping away these convenient illusions, the current administration has exposed the true cost of fuel and foreign exchange. In doing so, it has forced a long-overdue national conversation on productivity, local manufacturing, and state-level accountability.

Nigeria’s Fourth Republic now stands at a crossroads where the heavy inheritance of the past collides with the impatient demands of the future. Mallam El-Rufai’s brilliant speech is only as a reminder that the political elite are adept at diagnosing the country's problems, yet often struggle to implement 'surgical reforms' when they hold the scalpel.

The Fourth Republic will not be rescued by polished speeches from Brussels, but by sober collaboration with the present administration to build a society that works.

~ Noble writes from Abuja ✍️

Source: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/17Bfez82Qf/

Mallam El-Rufai speech: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AUPB3n8k5/

Cc: Seun
lalasticlala
mynd44

The pens-for-hire have been unleashed. Elrufai is heads and shoulders above your paymasters.

El-Rufai just opened the biggest file in Nigeria.

“How to end darkness.” pic.twitter.com/MDIMsPtHZs

— ADC Vanguard (@ADCVanguard_) January 23, 2026

Real talk I challenge anyone to factually dispute.

Most importantly and critically, Mallam El-Rufai represents the class of opportunistic intellectual politicians. He is a master of the system who has served at the highest levels of the BPE, the FCT, and Kaduna State. His critique of weaponizing security rings hollow to many, given his own record of governance.

While El-Rufai speaks of checks and balances from far-away Brussels, his tenure as Governor of Kaduna State (2015–2023) tells a different story. Under his leadership, Southern Kaduna became a flashpoint for killings and displacements, with critics accusing his administration of being slow to act or partisan in response. While serving as Governor, his administration supervised the arrest of journalists, activists, and lawyers including Luka Binniyat and Audu Maikori who challenged his policies.

El-Rufai fails to acknowledge the role the Northern political elite, of which he is a pillar, has played in the region's educational and security crises. Crying foul only when outside the corridors of power suggests that his advocacy is tied to his political exclusion rather than a newfound democratic zeal.

To move beyond form to substance, Nigeria must move past the rhetoric of elites like El-Rufai.

AMINDA:
The pens-for-hire have been unleashed. Elrufai is heads and shoulders above your paymasters.

El-Rufai just opened the biggest file in Nigeria.

“How to end darkness.” pic.twitter.com/MDIMsPtHZs

— ADC Vanguard (@ADCVanguard_) January 23, 2026

Lol. Is that why Lagos is one of the safest States in Nigeria by far despite hosting 23 million plus Nigerians which is the largest by far of any State in Nigeria?

Meanwhile Kaduna of El Rufai was a condemnable mess of sectarian killings of Christians in Southern Kadua under your messiah with the situation now only improving under El Rufai's successor. Direct confirmation of El Rufai's anti-Christian complicity his successor rejected retaining.

Same odious El Rufai who confessed he paid Fulani terrorist to stop butchering Christians in Southern Kadua is now your hero. He is paying murderers to not murder innocent Nigerians when they should be wiped out?

This same El Rufai, a Fulani supremacists to the core, bragged:

"We will write this for all to read. Anyone, soldier or not that kills the Fulani takes a loan repayable one day no matter how long it takes."

Can any political leader who Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Ekoi, Mumuye, Edo, Itsekiri, Igala, Idoma, Tiv, Urhobo etal make such a bloodthirsty threat against the entire Nigeria without huge outcry? Does this not show who and what El Rufai truly is?

Your support for this character, to claim he is "head and shoulders" above the moderate, peace-loving, tolerant and visionary Tinubu, speaks volumes about your desperation to see "Yoruba President" depart Aso Rock to the extent you are willing to back any manners of evil you think can help you achieve that fantasy.


I will refrain from saying what I really think of you as I know such will get me banned but don't be fooled many here do not know what you are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2016/12/weve-paid-fulani-stop-killings-southern-kaduna-el-rufai/amp/


I'm

WizardOfNG:
Lol. Is that why Lagos is one of the safest States in Nigeria by far despite hosting 23 million plus Nigerians which is the largest by far of any State in Nigeria?

Meanwhile Kaduna of El Rufai was a condemnable mess of sectarian killings of Christians in Southern Kadua under your messiah with the situation now only improving under El Rufai's successor. Direct confirmation of El Rufai's anti-Christian complicity his successor rejected retaining.

Same odious El Rufai who confessed he paid Fulani terrorist to stop butchering Christians in Southern Kadua is now your hero. He is paying murderers to not murder innocent Nigerians when they should be wiped out?

This same El Rufai, a Fulani supremacists to the core, bragged:

"We will write this for all to read. Anyone, soldier or not that kills the Fulani takes a loan repayable one day no matter how long it takes."

Can any political leader who Yoruba, Igbo, Ijaw, Ekoi, Mumuye, Edo, Itsekiri, Igala, Idoma, Tiv, Urhobo etal make such a bloodthirsty threat against the entire Nigeria without huge outcry? Does this not show who and what El Rufai truly is?

Your support for this character, to claim he is "head and shoulders" above the moderate, peace-loving, tolerant and visionary Tinubu, speaks volumes about your desperation to see "Yoruba President" depart Aso Rock to the extent you are willing to back any manners of evil you think can help you achieve that fantasy.


I will refrain from saying what I really think of you as I know such will get me banned but don't be fooled many here do not know what you are.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2016/12/weve-paid-fulani-stop-killings-southern-kaduna-el-rufai/amp/


I'm

"When it comes to issues of security, the bulk stops at table of the president". - Bola Ahmed Tinubu to President Jonathan.

Tinubu is president today and Agbadorians are now passing the bulk to governors. Elrufai has never been in charge of security. Over 170 persons still got kidnapped in Kaduna yesterday and Elrufai is no longer the governor. The killings in Plateau and other states still persist and have even escalated to Kwara and Kogi, yet Agbadorians are passing the buck to their state governors. Was Tinubu aware of all these about Elrufai when he took him everywhere during the campaigns and even to Chatham house where he bailed Tinubu out from stuttering. That was before Tinubu gave Elrufai the Wike treatment though. There will soon be a Shettima treatment and you will be here to tell us how Shettima is the devil-incarnate. Other Nigerians are fast discovering that it's just a way of life and natural to people from that side. Thankfully you admit that Tinubu is "Yoruba President". Yet, he only won 4 Yoruba states across the entire South. It was Fulani votes (5.6m out of his 8m) that made him President. Thanks to the likes of Elrufai.