₦airaland Forum

Ewizard:
A lot of people are going to listen to the highlighted above and fall in to this bear trap.

Firstly you must understand that we are in a Bull market.
Bull market progress:36.2% (based on standard Halving Cycles)

Psychologically, it is easier and safer to HODL and DCA into dips with fresh funds than to sell “Some capital” to buy lower in a Pre-Halving / Post Halving Retraces.

Why? If you sell your capital you will be under pressure to find the bottom to get back in or FOMO into any rebound in order not to miss out.

Get fresh funds, identify support areas and place your buy orders. Close your app and go about your business. No pressure!
(Unless you a broke ass mdfvka, then go get a job)

Remember, Paper hands panic sell on red days, and Fomo on green days. Whales Fomo on red days, and dump on paper hands on green days.

Secondly,

There are 4 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving Rally (Ended)

Usually 60-90days before halving.
48k - 73k

2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a 28 to 14 days before the Halving event itself

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep and lasted 3-4 days

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep and lasted 56 days (8 weeks)

This phase offer a bargain-buying opportunity in the Pre-Halving period and also form the Range Low of the future Re-Accumulation Range

3. Post Halving Retrace / Re-Accumulation

The beginning of the "Re-Accumulation" phase occurs once the Pre-Halving Retrace has bottomed

In other words, the bottom of the Pre-Halving Retrace historically becomes the bottom of the Re-Accumulation Range

It is possible that Bitcoin is slowly transitioning away from its Pre-Halving Retrace phase into its "Re-Accumulation" phase.

The goal now is for Bitcoin to move sideways going into the Halving and beyond.

The Re-Accumulation phase can last multiple weeks and even up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to FUD, disbelief, boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince you that the Bull Market is over And then it will resume its uptrend.

However, in this cycle it is the very first time that this Re-Accumulation Range is developing around the New All Time High area. (Remember BTC break New ATH first time in history Pre-Halving. The ETF effects)

As a result, this Re-Accumulation Range may simply take the shape of a regular sideways range like we've seen throughout the cycle thus far and may not last very long before additional uptrend continuation

4. Parabolic Uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend.

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth into a parabolic uptrend

Historically, this phase has lasted just over a year (~385 days) however with a potential Accelerated Cycle occurring right now, this figure may get cut in half in this market cycle.

Finally, if you think Israel/Iran war caused the current market dip, you haven’t learnt Bitcoin enough.

Take home:

1. “Extreme Fear precedes financial opportunity.”[/b]

2. Baron Rothschild made fortune Fomo buying when people panic sold.
His quote;
[i]"Buy when there’s blood in the streets...
But the second part of his quote isn't recited as often
"...even if the blood is your own”

You often have go against yourself to be profitable.

LEARN BITCOIN!

Fast forward to 2026

Bear Market Progress: Elliot Wave B (Based on Elliot 3-Wave Theory to identify a Bear Trend)

"The Simulation will Repeat"...
Thanks to that Anonymous user on 4chan who perfectly called the bitcoin top (October 6, 2025) way back in 2023 by simply analyzing past cycle data and patterns.

A kind reminder that Bitcoin is forged out of Mathematical and Cryptographical Algorithms. So the numbers (data) dont lie.

Back to helping you navigate the downtrend (Just like i did with the Uptrend as quoted above in April 2024 post-halving)

But before that, i hear a lot people argue that we haven't even experience "Euphoria" that typically mark the top of a cycle according to Wallstreet Cheat Sheet.

Oh well, if all that Trump Coin, Chillguy, Pnut, Useless, Pump dot Fun, scam coin moments that printed millions and got everyone rat racing for the next 100x on Dexscreener screaming WAGMI in late 2024 to early of 2025 after Bitcoin Historic 100k mark in Dec 2024 wasn't Euphoric, then i dont know what euphoria means to you.

Same Pattern in late 2021 to early 2022 with Shiba Inu, Pepe, Doge, Hamster, Floki, where everyone was on BNB Chain and other DEX like Pancakeswap, Uniswap, 1inch chasing the next 100x Defi, buying presale scams on launchpads with their hard earned BNB on Pinksale and the rest. DogeElon, Elon this Elon that, Reflection token, Supply Burn, Nft's and the endless list of last cycle narratives.

That your Bags didn't experience "Euphoria" doesn't mean there was no "Euphoria" leading up to the 2025 Btc Top.
You probably held unto your 2022 Bags Neglecting the Liquidity shift towards new narratives.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Without Further Shenenigans, lets proceed. No Deep Dives, Just surface scratching. Let time prove the simulation.

Stages in a Downtrend: (Source: University dot Cex dot io)

* Panic and fear
* Relief and hope (Where you all at currently)
* Capitulation and depression

Identifying Stages With Elliott Waves

To accurately identify each stage in a downtrend, there is a need for an objective methodology because the above-outlined stages relate to the psychology of a market, which is subjective. Everybody has a different perception of extreme fear, hope, and depression.

The most common objective way to identify the stages of a downtrend is using the Elliott waves. The Elliott Wave Theory is the benchmark technical analysis tool used by financial traders to identify market cycles and forecast different market trends. According to the Elliott wave theory, every downtrend consists of three major stages with two waves to the downside and one way to the upside. Prices drop during waves A and C and they bounce during wave B.

The Elliott Wave Theory suggests that there is usually alternation in the duration of waves A and C. This means that if wave A happens very fast with huge crashes, wave C generally lasts longer with more gradual price decreases and a lot of sideways movements.

Bitcoin followed a perfect A-B-C correction sequence during its 2018-19 bear market as you can observe in the below chart.

Wave A was very quick and violent, where the price of Bitcoin crashed from $19k,000 to $6,000 in only one month. Such a sudden and drastic crash was followed by an almost equally strong bounce in wave B, where the price jumped from $6,000 to $12,000. Finally, in accordance with the alternation rule in the Elliott wave theory, wave C took quite a long time with seven months of sideways price action and ended with a capitulation in December 2018 at $3,000 per coin.

Wave A
During wave A, there is higher selling volume compared to the buying volumes in the late stage of the bull market. The intensity of the sell volume during wave A determines its length and duration.

Increasing sell volume is a response to deteriorating fundamentals for the specific cryptocurrency. During wave A, negative news and developments start to come out for the asset but the continued optimism of the overall market causes the majority of investors to ignore these developments.

Wave A typically ends when those reckless investors start to feel intense panic and fear due to an acceleration in the dropping of prices.

Wave B
Wave B constitutes the relief rally during a downtrend. Prices rise without any improvements in the fundamentals of the asset even though fundamentals have not turned entirely negative either.

Although Wave B usually ends with a lower price compared to the bull market top, depending on the strength of the bounce (and thus market interest), the price may reach as high as the bull market top or even exceed it. But in contrast to what the majority of market participants might think at that point, this would not mean the start of a new uptrend.

If the price tops just a little above the previous bull market top, this would instead constitute a “bull trap”. You can identify a bull trap if prices climb with lower volume compared to that of the previous uptrend. In that sense, the volume during wave B should be lower than the volume in wave A.

Bitcoin’s surge from $29,000 in July 2021 to $69,000 in November 2021 is a perfect example of a wave B that ended with a bull trap. During wave A of the downtrend that started in April 2021, Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $29,000. Wave B started following that, which did not only rise as high as April’s bull market highs but even surpassed it to $69,000.

Same Pattern this cycle: fell from $109k in Jan 2025 to $74k in April 2025, then rise to a new high of $126k in October 2025

Wave C
Wave C starts when the relief rally runs out of steam. There are no positive developments in the fundamentals of the market, and as a result, investors run out of incentives to buy more.

There is usually alternation between wave A and wave C in the way that prices fall. For example, if the fall was very rapid and violent during wave A, then wave C may have a more gradual downtrend. However, selling volume picks up significantly in wave C, and panic and fear strike again as investors lose their entire gains from wave B. At that point, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

The length of wave C depends on the strength of the overall downtrend. Usually, the price makes a new low compared to the low price in wave A. A lower wave C is very common in cryptocurrencies since they are a very speculative asset, as a result, they can be sold down to extremely low prices during the capitulation and depression phase of wave C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Prediction for the coming days?

Wait for the Fake 100k Bullish Cross around Late February/Early March 2026 where everyone would think we freakin back, then gets heavily rejected and Wreck all fomo buyers in continuation of the downtrend/bear market uptill October where we could bottom out around 70k or below.

Take Home:

Binance CZ Tweeted recently on X about his optimism for a Supercycle and further reiterate his stance on a Live Tv.

Do I agree with CZ?
Yes, I am optimistic about a Supercycle for ALTCOINS (Eth, Mid Caps, Low Caps) only.

Historically, I expect a liquidity rotation from Btc to Eth and other Altcoins.

For now, I will do nothing but wait for confirmation/Invalidation.

Great Weekend guys.


LEARN BITCOIN

Ewizard:
Fast forward to 2026

Bear Market Progress: Elliot Wave B (Based on Elliot 3-Wave Theory to identify a Bear Trend)

"The Simulation will Repeat"...
Thanks to that Anonymous user on 4chan who perfectly called the bitcoin top (October 6, 2025) way back in 2023 by simply analyzing past cycle data and patterns.

A kind reminder that Bitcoin is forged out of Mathematical and Cryptographical Algorithms. So the numbers (data) dont lie.

Back to helping you navigate the downtrend (Just like i did with the Uptrend as quoted above in April 2024 post-halving)

But before that, i hear a lot people argue that we haven't even experience "Euphoria" that typically mark the top of a cycle according to Wallstreet Cheat Sheet.

Oh well, if all that Trump Coin, Chillguy, Pnut, Useless, Pump dot Fun, scam coin moments that printed millions and got everyone rat racing for the next 100x on Dexscreener screaming WAGMI in late 2024 to early of 2025 after Bitcoin Historic 100k mark in Dec 2024 wasn't Euphoric, then i dont know what euphoria means to you.

Same Pattern in late 2021 to early 2022 with Shiba Inu, Pepe, Doge, Hamster, Floki, where everyone was on BNB Chain and other DEX like Pancakeswap, Uniswap, 1inch chasing the next 100x Defi, buying presale scams on launchpads with their hard earned BNB on Pinksale and the rest. DogeElon, Elon this Elon that, Reflection token, Supply Burn, Nft's and the endless list of last cycle narratives.

That your Bags didn't experience "Euphoria" doesn't mean there was no "Euphoria" leading up to the 2025 Btc Top.
You probably held unto your 2022 Bags Neglecting the Liquidity shift towards new narratives.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Without Further Shenenigans, lets proceed. No Deep Dives, Just surface scratching. Let time prove the simulation.

Stages in a Downtrend: (Source: University dot Cex dot io)

* Panic and fear
* Relief and hope (Where you all at currently)
* Capitulation and depression

Identifying Stages With Elliott Waves

To accurately identify each stage in a downtrend, there is a need for an objective methodology because the above-outlined stages relate to the psychology of a market, which is subjective. Everybody has a different perception of extreme fear, hope, and depression.

The most common objective way to identify the stages of a downtrend is using the Elliott waves. The Elliott Wave Theory is the benchmark technical analysis tool used by financial traders to identify market cycles and forecast different market trends. According to the Elliott wave theory, every downtrend consists of three major stages with two waves to the downside and one way to the upside. Prices drop during waves A and C and they bounce during wave B.

The Elliott Wave Theory suggests that there is usually alternation in the duration of waves A and C. This means that if wave A happens very fast with huge crashes, wave C generally lasts longer with more gradual price decreases and a lot of sideways movements.

Bitcoin followed a perfect A-B-C correction sequence during its 2018-19 bear market as you can observe in the below chart.

Wave A was very quick and violent, where the price of Bitcoin crashed from $19k,000 to $6,000 in only one month. Such a sudden and drastic crash was followed by an almost equally strong bounce in wave B, where the price jumped from $6,000 to $12,000. Finally, in accordance with the alternation rule in the Elliott wave theory, wave C took quite a long time with seven months of sideways price action and ended with a capitulation in December 2018 at $3,000 per coin.

Wave A
During wave A, there is higher selling volume compared to the buying volumes in the late stage of the bull market. The intensity of the sell volume during wave A determines its length and duration.

Increasing sell volume is a response to deteriorating fundamentals for the specific cryptocurrency. During wave A, negative news and developments start to come out for the asset but the continued optimism of the overall market causes the majority of investors to ignore these developments.

Wave A typically ends when those reckless investors start to feel intense panic and fear due to an acceleration in the dropping of prices.

Wave B
Wave B constitutes the relief rally during a downtrend. Prices rise without any improvements in the fundamentals of the asset even though fundamentals have not turned entirely negative either.

Although Wave B usually ends with a lower price compared to the bull market top, depending on the strength of the bounce (and thus market interest), the price may reach as high as the bull market top or even exceed it. But in contrast to what the majority of market participants might think at that point, this would not mean the start of a new uptrend.

If the price tops just a little above the previous bull market top, this would instead constitute a “bull trap”. You can identify a bull trap if prices climb with lower volume compared to that of the previous uptrend. In that sense, the volume during wave B should be lower than the volume in wave A.

Bitcoin’s surge from $29,000 in July 2021 to $69,000 in November 2021 is a perfect example of a wave B that ended with a bull trap. During wave A of the downtrend that started in April 2021, Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $29,000. Wave B started following that, which did not only rise as high as April’s bull market highs but even surpassed it to $69,000.

Same Pattern this cycle: fell from $109k in Jan 2025 to $74k in April 2025, then rise to a new high of $126k in October 2025

Wave C
Wave C starts when the relief rally runs out of steam. There are no positive developments in the fundamentals of the market, and as a result, investors run out of incentives to buy more.

There is usually alternation between wave A and wave C in the way that prices fall. For example, if the fall was very rapid and violent during wave A, then wave C may have a more gradual downtrend. However, selling volume picks up significantly in wave C, and panic and fear strike again as investors lose their entire gains from wave B. At that point, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched.

The length of wave C depends on the strength of the overall downtrend. Usually, the price makes a new low compared to the low price in wave A. A lower wave C is very common in cryptocurrencies since they are a very speculative asset, as a result, they can be sold down to extremely low prices during the capitulation and depression phase of wave C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Prediction for the coming days?

Wait for the Fake 100k Bullish Cross around Late February/Early March 2026 where everyone would think we freakin back, then gets heavily rejected and Wreck all fomo buyers in continuation of the downtrend/bear market uptill October where we could bottom out around 70k or below.

Take Home:

Binance CZ Tweeted recently on X about his optimism for a Supercycle and further reiterate his stance on a Live Tv.

Do I agree with CZ?
Yes, I am optimistic about a Supercycle for ALTCOINS (Eth, Mid Caps, Low Caps) only.

Historically, I expect a liquidity rotation from Btc to Eth and other Altcoins.

For now, I will do nothing but wait for confirmation/Invalidation.

Great Weekend guys.


LEARN BITCOIN

I disagree with your stance on this bull run topped at euphoria with Eth topping below 5k. That's not euphoria. Are we in bear? Yes going by historical data. If the bullrun topped at euphoria we won't be having the big guys like CZ & Tom Lee saying there is going to be a super cycle this year. This idea of super cycle was born out because a lot of players believe the market is not exhausted. You can't have a bullrun topping at euphoria & people will be talking about super cycle. 2024 btcee cross 100k plus, 2025 October btcee barely cross 100k u call that euphoria?

Mind u CZ expressly stated super cycle for Bitcoinn in the video not alts.

doyin01:
Some of una go just open mouth waaaaaa and begin to vomit nonsense with confidence..

The first huge money I made online was from kdp amazon , it was someone I did not know that posted the information on this nairaland here.....buying and selling of domain names , it was from this same nairaland I got the information for free..and there is even a thread about it still existing..there are so many valuable information that some people have shared for free on this same nairaland that you are
.and it has nothing to do with referrals nonsense..because you personally cannot share a great money making info for free without strings attached...it does not mean there are no people that will share the information for free....change your clueless mindset and stop assuming everyone will be like you..

To all rules, there are exceptions, exceptions doesn't mean it ll always be like that 90% of the time, so if you benefit from the exceptional situations, it doesn't mean, it is always like that 100% all the time. What i am talking about that Nigerians won't tell you how they are making their money with no strings attached, it's a common knowledge, you experience it everyday both offline and online, 90 - 95% of the time, that's how it's always.

So if you come across exceptional situations, once in a while, it doesn't negate that rule.

SaintUlot:
To all rules, there are exceptions, exceptions doesn't mean it ll always be like that 90% of the time, so if you benefit from the exceptional situations, it doesn't mean, it is always like that 100% all the time. What i am talking about that Nigerians won't tell you how they are making their money with no strings attached, it's a common knowledge, you experience it everyday both offline and online, 90 - 95% of the time, that's how it's always.

So if you come across exceptional situations, once in a while, it doesn't negate that rule.

Whatever makes you sleep well at night..

MamaFutures:
If BTC fail to fall below 80k in coming weeks (healthy correction) 4get about BTC full pump nxt year.

I was kind enough to share this last year.

MamaFutures:
This prophecy is gradually coming to pass.
The close of this week is very important, as BTC is likely to start a new phase.

BTC is about to switch from bullish to bearish phase.
This week close will definitely make it official.

MamaFutures:
BTC is about to switch from bullish to bearish phase.
This week close will definitely make it official.

This week closing is a very important one

I have been trying to short the market , so I am very careful , cos we still have support at 80k

MamaFutures:
BTC is about to switch from bullish to bearish phase.
This week close will definitely make it official.

bitcoin has been bearish since last year September why are you knowing this now ?

Allthelight:
bitcoin has been bearish since last year September why are you knowing this now ?

Nope...
It was bullish early this year ooo. But I know it won't last long, cuz we still had unfinish retracement on the weekly cycle.

Our system is different. So our views may not always be the same.

Silver and gold hitting ath while we're in the trenches lol,our time will come .

I’ve made a checklist..
After the bull run, I won’t listen to crypto goats like Ben Cowen anymore..
The way he switched from crypto to metals..
And I’m sure he says the bull market is over.. (50WMA) bro..
Pay attention to the markets, try to read sentiment now, the short callers are getting loud, and overconfident, when has the market ever rewarded the majority 🥲..
I still believe a new ATH for crypto in early March and a top for alts in late March/April..
I accept the slanders but I’m going to stand by my conviction..
NFA.. but who would take a financial advice from a noob anyway😂

We’d come back to this statement above..
It’s just a few weeks..
Mark my words..
Don’t invest if you’re not willing to spend hours on screen..
Hope you know, alts needs only a few days or weeks to cancel years n downtrend?

MamaFutures:
Nope...
It was bullish early this year ooo. But I know it won't last long, cuz we still had unfinish retracement on the weekly cycle.

Our system is different. So our views may not always be the same.

[color=#006600][/color]

Normally, BTC is usually bullish towards the end of the year and goes bearish during the early part of the next year.
A lot of influencers have being confusing traders. The manipulators/ crypto big boys can do whatever they like to influence the price.
It's best everyone just focus on what works for him/herself.

MamaFutures:
Nope...
It was bullish early this year ooo. But I know it won't last long, cuz we still had unfinish retracement on the weekly cycle.

Our system is different. So our views may not always be the same.

dai play

daharry:
We’d come back to this statement above..
It’s just a few weeks..
Mark my words..
Don’t invest if you’re not willing to spend hours on screen..
Hope you know, alts needs only a few days or weeks to cancel years n downtrend?

Hopium

No lambo again
Lol niggas have been here since 2022

If Riverusdt had shown you shege, raise up your hand

doyin01:
Hopium

lol..
I wish it was hopium..
But as usual, the market would find a narrative to explain the pump..
Just sit tight (max 2 weeks before you take back your words)

Siberia01:
No lambo again
Lol niggas have been here since 2022

What price was bitcoin then and what price is it now even in this dip?

They should keep buying altcoin and getting ripped

Right now, silver is experiencing a blow-off top..
But he’s calling for a blow off top in Feb-may..
These kind of crypto gurus make you sell too late or too early....
Both being how you loose your money in crypto..

daharry:
Right now, silver is experiencing a blow-off top..
But he’s calling for a blow off top in Feb-may..
These kind of crypto gurus make you sell too late or too early....
Both being how you loose your money in crypto..

Do u guys still take all these YouTube analysts serious? They just jump on trend so they make videos & earn from YouTube. That's how they make their money. All the cryptto analysts on YouTube are now analyzing gold lol. For d past 6 years gold was static, none of them talked about it

Shameless Gamblers Nothing that they can't use to gamble . . . Gold oh, Silver oh even Lead if crypto show them shege

hmmm

Jayce242:
Do u guys still take all these YouTube analysts serious? They just jump on trend so they make videos & earn from YouTube. That's how they make their money. All the cryptto analysts on YouTube are now analyzing gold lol. For d past 6 years gold was static, none of them talked about it

his analysis is not the best but is better than 99% of analyst here.

You all keep telling people to buy altcoins... He doesn't he said buying altcoins is a waste of time since 2023

Jayce242:
Do u guys still take all these YouTube analysts serious? They just jump on trend so they make videos & earn from YouTube. That's how they make their money. All the cryptto analysts on YouTube are now analyzing gold lol. For d past 6 years gold was static, none of them talked about it

and for a record the guy talks about gold, silver and stocks too...

Ewizard:
Binance CZ Tweeted recently on X about his optimism for a Supercycle and further reiterate his stance on a Live Tv.

Do I agree with CZ?
Yes, I am optimistic about a Supercycle for ALTCOINS (Eth, Mid Caps, Low Caps) only.

Historically, I expect a liquidity rotation from Btc to Eth and other Altcoins.

For now, I will do nothing but wait for confirmation/Invalidation.

Great Weekend guys.


LEARN BITCOIN

When do you expect the supercycle for Altcoins to begin?

Those trading btc on brokers

How do you deal with the high rate of commissions and swap?

I just had to close my short positions by force because the commissions are really getting very high these days

Deal was shifted to Thursday because of weather concerns ,which I doubt, they want everything to be clear b
Without hurdles before they reach an agreement.

Steady lads 👌

Alexas58:
Those trading btc on brokers

How do you deal with the high rate of commissions and swap?

I just had to close my short positions by force because the commissions are really getting very high these days

I deal with a hedge fund .

Kaczynski:
I deal with a hedge fund .

How does hedge funds work?

And what’s the commission and swap like?

I am paying heavily for swap and commissions

Alexas58:
How does hedge funds work?

And what’s the commission and swap like?

I am paying heavily for swap and commissions

They're sort of like VC for stock market but with extra steps.


Depends on the hedge fund as there are various kinds.


The one I deal with , I ran $5,000,0000 . They deal with stock and crypto market.