₦airaland Forum

Sapeleboy911:
With value betting, you can lose not only some but a huge part of your bankroll. It is called variance and it can either be with you or against you, which can be translated to winning runs and losing runs.

Take the popular coin toss as an example. If you get odds of 2.20 for the head and 1.90 for the tail. It doesn't mean you will actually make a profit after 1 - 10 bets. You will only make profits when you place a high number of bets on heads, because with a huge volume of bets that tiny 0.20 EV will offset most losses.

There are popular cases of people losing over 30% of their bankroll even after 800 - 900 bets. But as long as you continue placing these value bets, the law of large numbers will play its course.

Placing 50 bets daily on Fri - Sun will be considered poor for me. My target is at least 150 daily on weekends and 50 on weekdays.

In closing value betting is not risk free, if you can't place a large volume of bets without being affected by losing runs, and source for betting accounts no need starting it.

Thank you very much I’ve opened bet365, sportybet and I’ve subscribed breaking bet now. My question is should I bet on any value bet that appears on the scanner or is there a way of selecting the ones to bet?

Madu2013:
Thank you very much I’ve opened bet365, sportybet and I’ve subscribed breaking bet now. My question is should I bet on any value bet that appears on the scanner or is there a way of selecting the ones to bet?

Although people bet on every bet that shows up on the scanner, but I usually have my own preset, like time to start <= 5 hours, minimum value = 5%, stake fixed. And I bet on all leagues. And those accounts will be restricted in weeks, so prepare to find more accounts.

Sapeleboy911:
Although people bet on every bet that shows up on the scanner, but I usually have my own preset, like time to start <= 5 hours, minimum value = 5%, stake fixed. And I bet on all leagues. And those accounts will be restricted in weeks, so prepare to find more accounts.

Thank you so much you have been very helpful, last 2 years I was making lots of money on sports arbitrage until 1xbet and her cronies started restricting my account and lowering my odds I had to quit. But I would like to try this value bet. I would have also liked to pay you for a one on one class but you said you are not free now. My last question is with a capital of 2million how much should I be betting on each game and how many games should I play in a day?

Madu2013:
Thank you so much you have been very helpful, last 2 years I was making lots of money on sports arbitrage until 1xbet and her cronies started restricting my account and lowering my odds I had to quit. But I would like to try this value bet. I would have also liked to pay you for a one on one class but you said you are not free now. My last question is with a capital of 2million how much should I be betting on each game and how many games should I play in a day?

You're welcome, account restrictions and closures are some of the biggest obstacles in smart betting. 1xbet even confiscated my funds, after requesting for countless documents and live selfies.. The more accounts the better. In terms of bankroll, I use fixed stakes and risk only 1% of my bankroll on each game The most prevalent bankroll management method is the Kelly criterion but I was somehow scared when I started so I opted for fixed stakes. I don't stake more than 1 market on any given game, there are no limits to the number of bets value betting is more about volume.

Sapeleboy911:
Hmm!! some brawling and arguments here. The FACT remains, making money from betting without matched betting, value betting, or arbitrage is challenging if not impossible. I've been very busy with some matched betting offers and a blackhat betting affiliate strategy.

@Jakarta I took my time to explore the kickback affiliate strategy you made mention of. And I must say, it was quite profitable. A bookie offering 30 - 50% net gaming revenue commission was awesome. I even find it more profitable than value betting, although more stressful. Accas made it very profitable for me. But there were risks and challenges I encountered which were:

1) It is against the bookies' T&C, Is there even anything that is not against their T&C? Motivated affiliates are frowned at, and can lead to issues if not handled properly. They can withhold both your betting account funds and affiliate earnings if you are caught.

2) Exchange rate problems. I was practically backing with naira and laying with Euro, then withdrawing in USD. It was hectic converting from this currency to that currency. I was losing a few quids on the fluctuating exchange rate.

3) You need lots of betting accounts. Most bookies will only pay your commission if you refer a required minimum number of players. Ranges were from 5 - 15. And you need to keep referring more else your rates will drop.

4) They can request your traffic source, and even close your affiliate account without a valid explanation.


The matched betting offer was profitable I was guaranteed at least 10% profit of my stakes, but you can't scale or compound it. It is fixed, and you need to disguise your bets, else they will disqualify you from the offer. All in all, it was a jolly good ride.


The smart betting world is getting more difficult day by day. And those looking to make money from it without using the listed strategies above are just throwing their money in a pit, nevertheless, we move.

Good day sapeleboy911.Nice work you are doing here.Can you please expatiate on the betting affiliate program cos I'm interested.

Please what betting exchange are you using to lay your bet as Betfair no longer accepts Nigerian customers.Also I would like to ask what bookmakers are offering 30-50% affiliate commission.A few examples would be nice.

Also the exchange you are using,what document do they request for verification.Thanks in advance in anticipation of your reply.

Sapeleboy911:
First, there are 2 types of handicaps, namely European and Asian. With Europeans, there is room for draws, unlike Asian handicaps.
Using your Away 0:3 as an example if the final score was 8:5 in a European handicap that would be considered a lost bet because even after adding the handicap advantage of 3 goals to the away team they still did not win the game. But in an Asian handicap, your stake will be refunded/void. 0:3 is like Home 0: Away +3 meaning the away team already has a 3 goal lead advantage before the game even starts.

In summary, with a European handicap if the away team loses by 3 or more goals your bet is considered LOST. But if they win, or draw by any score line be it, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 0-2, 0:6, etc your bet is considered a WIN.

Bros please I need sure bet and broke to even bet it.

Can you help me with little to keep trying

Facesitting:
Bros please I need sure bet and broke to even bet it.

Can you help me with little to keep trying

Sorry, I'm not a tipster, I don't provide sure bets.

More reasons u needed to run away from all form of gambling.

Please how can I get to talk with you. I need your contact so we can discuss on something please.

Sapeleboy911:
First and foremost, I'm not a good writer, so pardon any grammatical errors. Ok, with that clarification made let's begin our ride.

It all started in 2015 when I got introduced to sports betting by a colleague. Then bet9ja shops and churches were the most visible structures on any street in my state. I lost a huge amount of money on betting then. My colleague migrated to virtual, duped his brother's business partner for over 400k and he languished all the money on virtual. I wasn't comfortable with the concept of virtual betting as such, I never bothered attempting it to date.

I vowed never to visit any bet9ja shop again after I lost my 3 months salary to betting. My relatives and disciplined friends were all happy and so proud of me having stood by my words of never visiting a betting shop. Unknowing to them, I was secretly betting online using my PC. I never made any dime from betting throughout 2015 - 2016. All through the Night, I was busy placing OV/UN 3.5 bets on Brazilian leagues. After doing research on websites like Soccer Punter and Soccer Vista still, I was not making profits.


Around 2017/2018, there was this popular thread here on Nairaland called "The mast strategy." I later found out that this was just a martingale strategy. It involves chasing your losses. We were staking on 2 odds, and for every losing streak, you double your stake. I started with a 5k stake.


Things were going on smoothly initially until we had a terrible 5 losing streak. I lost a whopping 155k. I felt hot sperm gushing out of my penis. I almost walked into a moving truck that very day. The loud horn of the truck did some magic on my brain. It was as if I had a brain reset. The insults I received from onlookers and the driver of the truck that day were something else.

I fell into depression and was behaving abnormally. The 155k wasn't mine it was revenue money that I was collecting on behalf of an agency. They sacked their former employee because she was not being accountable. They picked me for the job because I was very accountable. When doing weekly audits with my boss then, I gave an account of every single penny I spent, and most of them were very impressed. But after just 2 months on the job I have blown away over 155k. What do I do, I felt lost and perplexed.


Luckily for me, there was this guy working as a sales attendant in a fuel station. Although his boss is educated, he is somehow naive. His boss comes to the fuel station at around 11AM every day. The guy stole from his boss by resetting the meter, and all the sales he made from 7 - 9 are wiped from the sales history. I was his bank he had over 200k saved in my possession. So I quickly took that money from that safe and started my journey with sports betting again. But this time I wasn't just betting blindly. I was more focused on matched betting.


Although the guy was later caught and arrested, I spent 2 days in a police cell, which was my first arrest experience. It was a horrible experience in that cell. Eating watery beans in a smelly mosquito infested cubicle. Once you sleep and your arms rest on any of your senior inmates, you will receive a brain resetting knock on your head or a deafening slap on your ears. Watch out for part 2.

Destiny6979:
Please how can I get to talk with you. I need your contact so we can discuss on something please.

I've replied your email.

Sapeleboy911:
I've replied your email.

It's been a while, how is it going bro? I've been steadily exploiting a weekly reload bonus offer on a local bookie. Although I'm making some profits, but I'm just scared, they might notice me one day given their horrible online reviews. Do you have any tips ? Any update on bet365? I intend creating accounts there, thank you very much.

Jakarta:
It's been a while, how is it going bro? I've been steadily exploiting a weekly reload bonus offer on a local bookie. Although I'm making some profits, but I'm just scared, they might notice me one day given their horrible online reviews. Do you have any tips ? Any update on bet365? I intend creating accounts there, thank you very much.

Yeah, it's been a while, glad you're milking those stingy and wicked Nigerian bookies. Be careful though, don't accumulate huge funds on your account, always withdraw your profits early. Disguise your bets by placing random accumulator bets and laying them sequentially. If this bookie is 1xbet or one of her numerous clones, I recommend backtracking because they will always notice you and confiscate both your deposit and winnings.

As for Bet365, they've been brutal in both account creation and odds scraping so I haven't been using them for some time now. Most popular scanners are finding it very difficult to scrape Bet365 odds, and as such most of the displayed odds on these scanners are wrong.

I've been exploiting the blackhat affiliate strategy you made mention of, and I must say so far it has been very profitable, albeit time consuming and stressful. I honestly miss Bet365 can't wait to get back, their odds boost for big matches is very profitable for my affiliate strategy. Stay safe and keep slaying the greedy bookmakers.

Thanks for the tip bro, I appreciate. As for the local bookmaker, it is not in any way related to 1xbet or a clone although it is a new entrant. I dey mad to use 1xbet/clone? Nice to know you are cashing out with the affiliate strategy I made mention of, abeg remember me if you need a partner oh!! We'll keep hitting hard, where it hurts them.

Sapeleboy911:
Yeah, it's been a while, glad you're milking those stingy and wicked Nigerian bookies. Be careful though, don't accumulate huge funds on your account, always withdraw your profits early. Disguise your bets by placing random accumulator bets and laying them sequentially. If this bookie is 1xbet or one of her numerous clones, I recommend backtracking because they will always notice you and confiscate both your deposit and winnings.

As for Bet365, they've been brutal in both account creation and odds scraping so I haven't been using them for some time now. Most popular scanners are finding it very difficult to scrape Bet365 odds, and as such most of the displayed odds on these scanners are wrong.

I've been exploiting the blackhat affiliate strategy you made mention of, and I must say so far it has been very profitable, albeit time consuming and stressful. I honestly miss Bet365 can't wait to get back, their odds boost for big matches is very profitable for my affiliate strategy. Stay safe and keep slaying the greedy bookmakers.

Big boss I need your help urgently, please will be glad if you reply as soon as possible

bestmutiu2019:
Big boss I need your help urgently, please will be glad if you reply as soon as possible

I've replied your email, check.

Sapeleboy911:
I've replied your email, check.

Am just seeing this now and it's over a week

tobore4u:
More reasons u needed to run away from all form of gambling.

Those two tickets came through

Predictor3:
Those two tickets came through

It was a full-time draw, Nigeria scored 3 in the extra time.

ClassicMcGee:
It was a full-time draw, Nigeria scored 3 in the extra time.

Yes, I remember now

HeadBoy9:
Please do you know any books/learning resources that'll help one fully understand betting, betting markets, and these betting strategies like value betting, arbitrage betting, matched betting, etc.

Yeah, instead of jumping straight into books, you might find it easier to start with practical guides.

HandsOnBet has a blog that breaks down things like value betting, arbitrage, matched betting, and how betting markets work in a simple way.

You can check it out here: https://handsonbet.com/blog

It’s more beginner-friendly and easier to apply compared to most books.

Sapeleboy911:
I've replied your email, check.

@sapeleboy911 hope you are good?
I’ve been trying to contact you. Please could you reach out to me on schooloftot@gmail.com there is something I need us to discuss, that may interest you.

Madu2013:
@sapeleboy911 hope you are good?
I’ve been trying to contact you. Please could you reach out to me on schooloftot@gmail.com there is something I need us to discuss, that may interest you.

Check your mail, I have responded to your NL email.