₦airaland Forum

At last, the long-awaited All Progressives Congress (APC) primary election for Surulere Constituency I has been concluded. The outcome, however, delivered one of the biggest upsets in Lagos politics ahead of the 2027 general election. Desmond Elliot, actor-turned-lawmaker and three-term member of the Lagos State House of Assembly, lost his bid for a fourth term after Barakat Odunuga-Bakare defeated him in Wednesday’s primary election.

Odunuga-Bakare, who is believed to enjoy the backing of Femi Gbajabiamila, chief of staff to President Bola Tinubu, polled 11,385 votes, while Elliot secured just 270 votes.

Despite the wide margin, Elliot has rejected the process and vowed to challenge the outcome through the party’s appeal mechanism. “We are appealing, and as I say, it is not a do-or-die affair. I’m here to serve the people. That’s my home. They come to my house,” Elliot told reporters after the exercise.
“The only person who can ask me to step down is the party. If the party says Desmond go down, that is when I will step down because I’m a party person.”

Interestingly, after my recent article titled ‘Surulere Constituency I: Can Elliot do what Ambode couldn’t?’, one of the lawmaker’s aides reached out to defend his principal’s decision to remain in the race despite losing political backing within the party structure.

His argument was simple: the APC leadership under Tinubu never categorically asked Elliot to withdraw. He also claimed denying Elliot another term would be detrimental to Surulere because the lawmaker stood a strong chance of emerging as a principal officer in the assembly — possibly even speaker — thereby attracting more projects to the constituency.

While that argument may sound logical on the surface, it ignores the deeper realities of Lagos APC politics.

Following the failed removal of Mudashiru Obasa as speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly — a move eventually reversed after Tinubu’s intervention — it became increasingly clear that many lawmakers perceived to have contributed to the crisis would struggle to secure return tickets.


Tinubu is too experienced politically not to understand Obasa’s excesses, including his frosty relationship with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Yet, the president chose stability over escalation because Lagos remains his political base. For Tinubu, preserving political order in Lagos is non-negotiable. After all, if one cannot manage political tensions at home, questions may arise about managing the country and this may be hugely detrimental to securing a fresh term in office.

Elliot’s situation became even more complicated after he was seen weeping openly when Mojisola Meranda stepped down as speaker to pave the way for Obasa’s return. Many within the party interpreted the emotional reaction as quiet disapproval of Tinubu’s directive restoring the status quo.

That perception alone weakened his standing. Even after Gbajabiamila openly backed Odunuga-Bakare, Elliot continued campaigning with Tinubu-branded materials while promising to work for the president’s re-election.

But the obvious question remained: in what political capacity? Can anyone realistically claim to be more politically valuable to Tinubu in Surulere than Gbajabiamila, his chief of staff and one of his closest allies?

In practical political terms, if Gbajabiamila rejects a candidate publicly, it is almost impossible to separate that position from Tinubu’s broader political thinking. Had the president genuinely wanted Elliot to continue, Gbajabiamila would most likely not have endorsed another aspirant so openly. Elliot also reportedly argued that returning to the assembly for a fourth term would position him for principal office and allow him attract greater development to Surulere.

Again, that argument raises another question: what projects can a principal officer in the Lagos assembly realistically deliver that would surpass what Gbajabiamila — a former speaker of the house of representatives and current chief of staff to the president — already attracts to Surulere?

Within APC politics in Surulere, Gbajabiamila remains the undisputed political authority. Only Tinubu himself — and perhaps the First Lady — can override his political decisions in the constituency.


History supports this reality. Years ago, Tajudeen Ajide, former chairman of Surulere local government, engaged Gbajabiamila in a fierce supremacy battle over control of the council’s political structure.

In an interview I conducted with Ajide at the time, he openly accused Gbajabiamila of fueling the crisis in the local government. Eventually, Gbajabiamila prevailed and ensured that his loyalist, Sulaimon Yusuf — then vice-chairman to Ajide — emerged as council chairman.

Ironically, Elliot later described Yusuf as his friend, yet complained on national television that Yusuf intimidated his supporters while campaigning vigorously for Odunuga-Bakare. But what else should anyone have expected in such circumstances?

Politics, especially in Lagos APC, is ultimately about structure, loyalty and alignment with established power blocs.

Elliot undoubtedly has the constitutional right to seek legal redress or continue contesting the outcome internally. However, he must also understand the political culture of the Lagos APC. Defying entrenched party directives is often interpreted as mutiny, and the consequences can be severe — sometimes leading to long-term political isolation.

Perhaps Elliot should study the political fate of Hakeem Masha, former lawmaker who represented Lagos Island Constituency I in the Lagos assembly between 2011 and 2015.

In 2015, Masha sought re-election, but the party leadership preferred Wasiu Eshilokun, particularly because the speakership was expected to be zoned to Lagos Central.

At the primary election, Eshilokun polled 186 votes against Masha’s 70. Masha rejected the outcome, and the dispute eventually ended up in court.

The legal battle dragged on for months before Justice Ibrahim Buba ordered INEC to recognise Eshilokun as the APC candidate while restraining Masha from parading himself as such. Masha proceeded to the court of appeal but eventually withdrew the case.

The political outcomes afterward were instructive. Eshilokun later became deputy speaker of the Lagos assembly and is now a senator and has just secured the party’s ticket for reelection to the senate. Masha, on the other hand, gradually disappeared from mainstream Lagos politics. Since that dispute, he has neither won elective office nor secured any significant political appointment both in Lagos and at the federal level.

Just few weeks ago, he reportedly attempted a return to the Lagos assembly but was advised to step down.

The lesson for Desmond Elliot is straightforward. In Lagos APC politics, victory is not determined merely by popularity or ambition. It is often determined long before the ballot by alignment with the party’s dominant political structure.

And when that structure moves against you, resistance may satisfy personal pride — but history suggests it rarely ends well.

Former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode is today a member of the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC, largely because he accepted defeat gracefully after losing the governorship primary to the party’s preferred candidate, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Rather than defect or head to court, Ambode congratulated Sanwo-Olu and pledged loyalty to the party. Desmond Elliot should take a cue from that example.

Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of the Daily Independent writes from the United Kingdom. He can be reached at shabydayo@gmail.com

nairavsdollars:
The electoral law banning politicians from defecting to another party after losing primaries is a masterstroke. Once you lose primary, game over

nairavsdollars:
The electoral law banning politicians from defecting to another party after losing primaries is a masterstroke. Once you lose primary, game over

reddingtonblack:
You are still behind the world as moved, the FHC as set aside that Tinubu Inec bobby trap to cage politicians in APC

you as elected politicians to defect,with a promise of 2nd term then you can up with inec guideline to lock dem up .. Thrn show dem true color.. Disqualifying members than defected

I really want to See Tinubu next chess move ... Now that court as unlock the defection door

SixSeven:
You see what happens when you let some select people choose and install people on your behalf? They WILL NEVER represent you. That's what this Desmond Elliot story shows us once again. The Barakat lady replacing him too will only work as a stooge.

This is what happens when parents do everything for their children, they never learn how to withstand the world challenges or fight for things, their parents did everything for them. They don't know their worth.

After Bucknor and Pedro showed Tinubu shege, they started going for female deputy governors. The ones who will not fight them. This is not to put the women down but we all know how it went with those deputies who were female. That's what is going on in Lagos. You will never get your true representative because these people did not fight for the seats. Even if they tried to fight, the party they came in through only annointed them for guaranteed victory at the polls. Until you have someone who did all the work, earned it in the primary and elections, you will only have representatives of babasopecracy consensus. Fake democracy.

"There is nothing democratic in what is referred to as consensus"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L1Ztoev8VNs&

Let me correct the writer who said
Former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode is today a member of the influential Governance Advisory Council (GAC), the highest decision-making body in Lagos APC, largely because he accepted defeat gracefully after losing the governorship primary to the party’s preferred candidate, Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Rather than defect or head to court, Ambode congratulated Sanwo-Olu and pledged loyalty to the party. Desmond Elliot should take a cue from that example.

Big fat lie. Ambode that called Sanwoolu mad and did worse than Elliot. Abeg talk another thing. They have arranged themsleves. Even Pedro is now an Ambassador but you see that WOMAN, Bucknor. She no gree for Bola. Again, know your worth and what you are fighting for.

Ambode gave a live broadcast after the defeat but don't forget that he didn't attend the handover ceremony, instead, he handed one day before May 29 at a private event. Also Ambode lost through the primaries, at least they allowed that to happen. Did you hear what Desmond said? "Even if I will lose, let me lose gallantly". He complained about intimidation of delegates so there is a difference in losing through indirect babasopecracy and direct vote. At least they pretended to vote for Ambode's own. The truth is that some people are at the background rigging the system. They don't want true votes. If it was consensus of the delegates, it is different but here there is compulsion, intimidation and threats to select one candidate. What a shame.

nairavsdollars:
The electoral law banning politicians from defecting to another party after losing primaries is a masterstroke. Once you lose primary, game over

nairavsdollars:
The electoral law banning politicians from defecting to another party after losing primaries is a masterstroke. Once you lose primary, game over

DigitB:
just go back to nollywood oga desmond

nairavsdollars:
What correction are you making? You yourself said Ambode gave a live broadcast after the primary? What did he say in the live broadcast? Did he go to court or defect to another party?answer!

nairavsdollars:
The electoral law banning politicians from defecting to another party after losing primaries is a masterstroke. Once you lose primary, game over

SixSeven:
What was the result for Elliot? Ambode was defeated after the primaries and he gave a broadcast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01SWn2rvU8&
At this rate, Buhari is actually a real democrat because he never interfered with the process. He told all candidates to go slug it out.

mohbadliveson:
https://www.thecable.ng/lagos-apc-what-desmond-elliot-should-learn-from-hakeem-mashas-political-fate/