₦airaland Forum

President Bola Tinubu, on Saturday, polled 10,999,160 votes in the just-concluded 2026 All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary — comfortably surpassing the 8,794,726 votes he secured in the 2023 general election.

The difference of over 2.2 million votes is remarkable because the primary was a members-only exercise, while the 2023 general election was an open contest involving more than 93 million registered voters and strong opposition candidates.

This outcome has triggered fresh scrutiny of the APC’s internal membership strength, the quality of its register, and the party’s mobilisation capacity in barely months to the 2027 general election.


STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN


Here is how Tinubu performed in the 2026 APC presidential primary compared to his 2023 presidential election votes.

State 2023 2026 difference remark
Pres. Primary
Difference Remark
Imo 66,406 582,960 +516,554 Massive surge
Adamawa 182,881 644,149 +461,268 Strong gain
Enugu 4,772 383,382 +378,610 Dramatic jump
Delta 90,183 407,646 +317,463 Major increase
Gombe 146,977 450,517 +303,540 Strong performance
Lagos 572,606 814,988 +242,382 Solid rebound
Akwa Ibom 160,620 389,197 +228,577 Significant gain
Kaduna 399,293 618,914 +219,621 Strong
Bayelsa 42,572 227,192 +184,620 Big jump
Ebonyi 42,402 207,579 +165,177 Major surge
Borno 252,282 414,988 +162,706 Strong
Abia 8,914 161,005 +152,091 Big jump
Nasarawa 172,922 285,436 +112,514 Good increase
Yobe 151,459 253,804 +102,345 Increase
Sokoto ~200,000 301,000 +101,000 Increase
Benue 310,468 374,787 +64,319 Moderate gain
Taraba 135,165 183,698 +48,533 Increase
Rivers 231,591 280,082 +48,491 Increase
Kwara 263,572 310,990 +47,418 Increase
Kebbi 248,088 292,972 +44,884 Increase
Anambra 5,111 43,034 +37,923 Increase
Zamfara 298,396 321,579 +23,183 Slight increase
Katsina 482,283 467,003 -15,280 Slight decline
Kano 517,341 500,852 -16,489 Slight decline
Cross River 130,520 113,911 -16,609 Decline
Ogun 341,554 322,485 -19,069 Decline
Edo 144,471 121,099 -23,372 Decline
Kogi 240,751 197,370 -43,381 Decline
FCT 90,902 36,103 -54,799 Decline
Plateau 307,195 241,720 -65,475 Decline
Ekiti 201,494 85,340 -116,154 Decline
Bauchi 316,698 156,541 -160,157 Significant drop
Ondo 369,924 181,996 -187,928 Decline
Niger 375,183 175,487 -199,696 Sharp decline
Osun 343,945 100,888 -243,057 Sharp drop
Oyo 449,884 142,754 -307,130 Biggest decline


KEY PATTERNS IN THE DATA

Strongest gains occurred in the south-east (Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia) and parts of the south-south (Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom) regions, where Tinubu performed poorly in 2023.

In Lagos, his political base, Tinubu showed a robust recovery — from 572,606 votes in 2023 (a loss to Peter Obi, 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party) to 814,988 in the recent primary.

North-east delivered mixed but generally positive results, with Adamawa, Atiku’s state, and Gombe posting huge gains. He suffered slight declines in core northern strongholds like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, and Bauchi. Same in the core south-west (Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti).

WHAT DOES THE NUMBER SUGGEST?

Party officials describe the high turnout as evidence of successful membership registration drives and unwavering loyalty to Tinubu within the APC.

Aspirants and governors reportedly invested heavily in mobilisation, logistics, and incentives.

One plausible explanation could be that movement is restricted during general election and voters also fear violence or show apathy.

This, it can be argued, can lead to a lower voter turnout.

But this factor alone cannot explain the big gap in turnouts between primary and general elections. After all, many would argue, committed party members will always vote during the general election in spite of movement restriction.

In March, Ajibola Basiru, the national secretary of the party, announced that the party had registered about 12 million members and linked them with the National Identity Number (NIN) as required by law.

Critics, however, point to longstanding concerns about bloated party registers, limited independent scrutiny during primaries, and the potential for inflated figures in exercises with far less oversight from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) when compared to general elections.


In Lagos, for instance, the jump from 572,606 in the 2023 general election to nearly 815,000 in the primary is particularly noteworthy and suggests that the APC still retains a highly mobilisable core in Tinubu’s home base even if broader voter sentiment proved more challenging in the general election

IMPLICATION FOR 2027

The data paints a picture of a party that has consolidated control of its internal machinery but still faces the harder task of translating that strength into a national electoral victory due to some unpopular decisions and reforms introduced by Tinubu in his first four years.

While the primary demonstrates Tinubu’s dominance within the APC, the gap between internal numbers and 2023 general election performance will likely intensify debates about register integrity and genuine grassroots support.

In March, Ajibola Basiru, the national secretary of the party, announced that the party had registered about 12 million members and linked them with the National Identity Number (NIN) as required by law.

Ironfaceman:
If I were the opposition, I will go to court and pray for a mandatory injunction for APC to make the 12 million member details public for verification.

Well what do I know am just a lonely rights crusader.

helinues:
Party primary don't required PVC just party membership card

helinues:
May we not be stagnant in life to the extent of creating daily monikers to be trolling others. Big Amen

Imagine this guy trolling me for over a decade on this forum yet I am the one who is jobless

The village people really finished work about the boy

helinues:
The issue with you people is arguing blindly on something you don't have much details about.

The Apc primary , not only the regions votes was released but also how people voted in states.

Wondering why things you guys can't achieve must have been manipulated

https://www.nairaland.com/8678225/apc-2027-presidential-primary-tinubus

Ironfaceman:
Are you feeling hurt that. Am asking for transparency.

If you have nothing to hide then you have nothing to fear.

Chucks13:
Go and ask Google.

Una neva seen anything yet by 2027 election we go hit 18m to 20m then una cry go plenty cus e go do una like a movie cus we go follow una go court and floor una as we did in 2023.

Una never seen anything yet shege promax dey do press up for 2027.

helinues:
Bro, how can a group of people sleep and face the same direction. Imagine the guy asking for transparency when he's not an Apc member

Same way one of them created a thread about ADC primary, claiming they Obidients camp influence the votes as if online votes or opinion would be counted as votes

helinues:
Asking for transparency as who? Are you an Apc member ? What's your business with Apc affairs?

Gosh, you guys should stop this annoying attitude of pokenoising into something that shouldn't have concerned you

Ironfaceman:
So if NDC tells you tomorrow they have 15 million members.

I hope you will mind your business. As you have asked me to mind mine.

Ironfaceman:
So if NDC tells you tomorrow they have 15 million members.

I hope you will mind your business. As you have asked me to mind mine.

Memphis357:
"You will feel pain, before you feel relief"
Bola Ahmed Tinubu!

The most disrespectful statement ever made
💔💔💔💔💔💔

helinues:
Party primary don't required PVC just party membership card

Ironfaceman:
If I were the opposition, I will go to court and pray for a mandatory injunction for APC to make the 12 million member details public for verification.

Well what do I know am just a lonely rights crusader.