₦airaland Forum

appini:
Punch failed to add Bayelsa state to Buhari's stronghold in their dreamland.

Oyegun in Edo state is well known as a conman without no political value.

For your information, Edo, Rivers, Imo, Ogun will fall for the PDP.

Ngwakwe:
I can't make anything from this trash by punchng hence it's meaningless to challenge their premises as the publisher has nothing neutral or balance to offer.

Seven days to go, I pray you accept the result as a Democrat.

However, Saturday's presidential election will certainly be inconclusive with the pendulum swinging to President Jonathan's favour.

The gods have spoken.

taharqa:
Punch been an official APC newspaper, what other predictions do we expect from then.

But what really got me laughing is the claim in this hacked job if an article that over a million people came to welcome Buhari in Motion Hill when he came to campaign in Oyo.

I mean, must you openly lie in other to push an agenda, APC??

hush15:
Mods, I need you to the needful. Here are a few excerpts of Tom Ikimi concerning the political terrain in nigeria. While I believe the projections up there is false cos I know a lot of northern states that will go 50/50 between Jo and Buhari, I will like you to give this a front page staus so people are more informed in political decision making when casting their votes.

Excerpts from interview with Tom Ikimi.

THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF NIGERIA THAT THE OPPOSITION HAS BEEN SO ORGANIZED SO MUCH SO THAT THE INCUMBENT IS NOT SURE OF BEING RETURNED. WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE SCENARIO?

This claim has turned out now to be more apparent than real and is, indeed, not an accurate portrayal of the history of strong opposition organization in the political history of Nigeria.

Buhari, Jega and Jonatrhan
In the late 1960s, two major parties, UPGA and NNA, emerged through the amalgamation of political parties with similar political and ideological tendencies and partly skewed towards the sectionalist arrangements of the period. These were the NNA, formed by the amalgamation of the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) and the South West based Nigerian National Democratic Party (NNDP), led by the Premier Chief S.L. Akintola.
On the other hand, the other big and strong party, which was the opposition party, was UPGA. This was an amalgamation of The National Council Of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), the Action Group, the Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) and the United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC).
In the Second Republic, although the NPN was the ascendant party, the UPN was a formidable opposition party but was hobbled by its narrow sectional base.
The Third Republic featured the SDP and the NRC as two national formidable political parties. I was honored to serve as the pioneer Chairman of the NRC. I have always desired a balanced polity in which the opposition is strong enough to be an alternative platform ready to assume the role of government.
This would assure effective checks and balance in the polity. My experience in the days of the SDP and NRC gave me remarkable insight into this option. I eagerly pursued, with some dedicated colleagues, the creation of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The entry of the APC into the nation’s political firmament was received across the nation and beyond with great joy and happiness. We proclaimed a new party with a clarion call of CHANGE as we strongly believed that we had created a party that would pursue democratic principles with an emphatic culture of internal party democracy.
I thought we had finally broken loose the shackles of tribal, regional and religious politics unlike the NNA of 1960s that was founded on the premise of securing national electoral power through a coalition of fundamentally ethnic-based parties involving the intrinsically “North for northerners”, Hausa-dominated NPC and the essentially schismatic Yoruba party, the NNDP. That assumption which seemed feasible under the regionalist Independence Constitution was that this sectionalist alliance as a formidable political party would win federal power.
Those who hijacked the APC dwelt on that erroneous assumption based on the archaic 1960 theory that a Yoruba South West and a Hausa-Fulani North West Nigeria alliance will produce electoral victory. The APC democratic credentials were put to test in its very first convention  where the self-styled “leader of the party” successfully plotted and executed the installation of cronies as the party’s National Executive. In a desperate effort to build a team that was solely designed to unseat President Goodluck Jonathan, PDP break away governors were  recruited.
It should be noted, as it is already evident, that the assumption of automatic and unanimous votes from the two zones, the North West and South West, for the APC is not realizable. Today, the hold of the APC over the South West has been dented in states such as Ekiti and Ondo; its hold has crashed in Ogun State – due to the soaring profile of the SDP and PDP in that state; in Oyo   – due to the PDP and ACCORD, while in Lagos, a major break through has been secured by the PDP, not only because of the very diverse electorate, the charismatic PDP governorship candidate – Jimi Agbaje, but the total rejection of the Lion of Bourdillon.
President Jonathan has an airtight support in the South-South and South-East where Buhari would not secure the mandatory 25%. President Jonathan will secure more than 60% of the votes in the North Central and not lass than 50% in the North East and North West. His return as President of Nigeria for a second term is assured.

OPINIONS ARE DIVIDED ON THE REASONS OF SECURITY ADDUCED FOR SHIFTING THE POLLS FOR WHICH GOV’T IS BEING BLAMED WHEREAS MANY BELIEVE INEC WAS NOT READY. WHAT DO YOU THINK?

While various opinions being peddled around speculating on the rationale for shifting of the polls, the compelling facts that eventually rendered February 14 unsuitable were quite simply the obvious security situation, and INEC’s unpreparedness.  Both these reasons were plainly valid.
The security situation in the north eastern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe was such that if elections had been held, large numbers of Nigerians would have been disenfranchised. In this context, which ever party lost could use the fact of low voter participation to generate interminable post-election crisis that the country does not need. Conducting the elections in those States with swathes of territories still disrupted by Boko Haram would have been a very daring undertaking and definitely not in the interest of election personnel.
Therefore the decision to shift the election dates and vigorously address security has achieved two objectives. First was to demonstrate President Jonathan’s determination to enfranchise voters wherever they may be located. This is significant because some of these areas are assumed to be opposition zones. Secondly, the decisive, speedy and stunning victories of the Nigerian forces have resulted in the liberation of virtually all of the north eastern territories previously under Boko Haram. This liberated condition automatically provides the opportunity for the voters in these areas to exercise their franchise that would not have been possible if the elections had been held in February.
With regards to INEC, I found it very strange that the Chairman of INEC, Professor Attahiru Jega, failed to disclose to the public the actual reason he postponed the elections. In his presentation to the Council of State a few days before he made the postponement announcement, he had admitted that a number of critical elements for free, fair and credible elections were not yet in place. As at the 7th of February, the date of his world press conference, of the 68.8 million Nigerians registered to vote, only 45.8 million had collected their Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVCs).
This meant that a total of 23 million (33.8%) registered voters had not yet collected their PVCs. It was obvious that it was not logistically possible for INEC to complete the distribution of the said 23 million cards in the one week left before the elections. If INEC had proceeded with elections on the 14th of February, 23 million registered voters would have been disenfranchised.
The skewed distribution of cards affected states that were not necessarily PDP states.
The issue of card readers, which INEC proposed to use, is a new device based on a new technology that had never been demonstrated or tested in situ in any Nigerian locality or previous elections. The first tests only recently carried out three weeks after the 14th of February recorded massive failure. For some unknown reasons, Jega is determined to throw Nigeria into unprecedented confusion with this ill designed contraption otherwise referred to as card readers on the 28th of March…

HOW DO YOU SEE THE PRESIDENTIAL POLL PLAYING OUT BETWEEN JONATHAN AND BUHARI BASED ON YOUR PERCEPTION OF THEIR STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES. THE PLATFORMS BOTH ARE CONTESTING ON ARE STRONG. BEYOND THAT, JONATHAN HAS THE POWER OF INCUMBENCY. BUT BUHARI IS ALSO POSITIONED AS THE RARE ANTI-CORRUPTION CRUSADER WE NEED.

I would say that earlier on my belief that President Jonathan has a good strong chance of winning the election derived from perception. I am now firmly convinced that, in fact, he will win the election resoundingly. This is based on the strength of rousing public awareness that woke to his spectacular accomplishments under his Transformation Agenda covering several strategic spheres including education, agriculture, aviation, roads and railway, industry such as motor car manufacturing, power and the economy.
He as President is leader of a broad based party which is not owned by any individual but a party that is well rooted across the entire nation with more than 70% of the local councilors being PDP members. Jonathan, educated to PhD level, is of the prevailing generation and in sync with the new Nigeria.
General Muhamadu Buhari, contesting the presidency for the fourth time, was in office as Head of State some 32 years ago when he  dethroned the democratically elected government of President Shehu Shagari.He is remembered as the ruthless military leader who seized power and would not entertain anyone discuss any plan to return the country to civil democratic rule. Politicians remember him, how aggressively he hunted down key politicians across the length and breadth of the country.
This hunt was selective as he manipulated the escape of selected tribal friends. He was the author of the infamous Decree 2, an instrument used to muzzle the press. Tunde Thompson and Nduka Irabor, among others were imprisoned. Death sentences were recklessly passed on civilians through the instrumentality of a hurriedly enacted decree back dated! Plea for mercy from inside and outside Nigeria on some of the condemned civilians, including a woman, was ignored. He ordered the selective trial of politicians for alleged corruption and jailed those from a part of the country to ridiculous terms of hundreds of years each.
Buhari has failed to make the presidency three times. After the 2011 elections, he wept publicly and announced that he was not going to present himself again in contest for the presidency. It is true that over the past 16 years, he has managed to acquire a good crowd of die hard followers from a number of his homeland constituencies.
Political contractors from southern Nigeria, particularly from a South West state, cashing in on the North-South political rivalry, the religious issue and the insecurity in north eastern Nigeria, have virtually recruited the general and persuaded him to recant on his 2011 proclamation not to contest again. These political contractors see Buhari’s candidature as the convenient route for them to grab Nigeria.
Those parading Buhari, singing a song of CHANGE, have now been challenged by many to define the change they are really talking about and whether they are talking of moving Nigeria from the digital age of today back to the analog age of 1983. The media is now awash with the Transformation projects executed by President Jonathan and many are arguing that those successful projects are indeed the change that you can see.
The GMB handlers, who advised the general to steer clear of an open debate with Jonathan, have tried hard to formulate a platform for their man creating a false image of him as an anti-corruption man. This is pure balderdash!! My first assignment as adviser to government in 1994/95 was to prepare the memo on which basis the PTF – Petroleum Trust Fund-was created. As Chairman of this juicy portfolio over which the general enjoyed unfettered control, the PTF was funded with a total of around 180 billion Naira between 1994 and 1999.
The general failed to curb stinking corruption in the organization but authorized more than 70% of the funds to be spent in his own part of the country. An Interim Management Committee, headed by his own kinsman, Haroun Adamu, discovered that over 25 billion Naira was stolen under GMB watch in PTF. I suppose this fact is recorded in the OBJ watch since he set up the Haroun Adamu Interim Chairmanship. GMB cannot claim to be an example of anti-corruption.
As Federal Commissioner for Petroleum Resources, it was discovered that $2.8 billion of Nigeria’s oil money was withdrawn from the Midland Bank London and the funds lodged into an account in a bank where it generated interest amounting then to over 400 million pounds which vanished into private pockets.
The entire anti-corruption and integrity campaign has collapsed and the final nail on the coffin of that campaign was the airing of The LionOf Bourdillon.  As for the issue of security as it pertains to the menace of Boko Haram ravaging the North East, it is now also clear who really were supporters of the Muslim fundamentalist attacks on Nigeria but mischievously turned around to blame President Jonathan. President Jonathan was left to equip a military, army, air force and navy, over night. He has done a yeoman’s job that during the last four weeks the insurgents have been virtually cleared from Nigerian soil.
The overwhelming opinion across the country at this time has swung in favor of President Jonathan and it is obvious that the overall peace and stability of Nigeria will be guaranteed by his election.

DO YOU REGRET LEAVING THE APC, WHICH HAS, TODAY, BECOME THE MOST FORMIDABLE OPPOSITION EVER TO THE RULING PDP?

It was an experience of great joy and satisfaction for me to host and lead the process that gave birth in February 2013, at my Abuja residence, to the All Progressive Congress (APC) with the successful unification of the major opposition parties – ACN, ANPP, CPC and a part of APGA.
Several failed attempts had been made by various people since 1999, to strengthen the opposition by uniting a number of the opposition parties. This had not been successful for a number of reasons prominent among which was always personal interest and ambition. Consequently, most well known leaders, particularly in the ranks of the former ACN, never thought it would be possible to achieve the unification. As soon as it became apparent that we would succeed, a number of them, notably the current self proclaimed leader of the party moved in to seize control of the party and has since employed every means to retain his hold.
It became clear to me that an agenda was brewing as the main objective of the new party. This included a move to install General Muhamadu Buhari as President with Bola Ahmed Tinubu as Vice President notwithstanding the facts that both men are Muslims with credentials I do not agree with. Most of my colleagues in the top leadership of the party also became aware of this trend. They merely grumbled about it but seemed not able to muster the courage to openly fight against it.
The first National Convention was an abysmal failure. The event was a mere charade at which a cabal succeeded in installing a group of cronies as the party National Executive. Core leaders of the legacy parties found themselves trapped in this arrangement, which turned out to be the construction of a framework dedicated to just one objective, which was to bring down President Goodluck Jonathan and install Buhari and Tinubu.
Notwithstanding Tinubu’s failure to make the ticket recently for this election, I am convinced that Professor Osinbajo has only been brought in as a stepping-stone and much has been spoken about this already. I observed the negotiations between ACN and CPC in 2011 at which Tinubu insisted that Pastor Bakare, who was already picked as running mate to Buhari by CPC, should provide an undated letter of resignation as Vice President. The pastor refused and so the negotiations broke down.
My quest for an alternative political platform in the country was not motivated towards fulfilling any personal ambition to contest for executive power but I hold firmly that it is in the best interest of our country to have a credible structure of two strong political parties that would guarantee the necessary checks and balances in the system. Notwithstanding the negative trends exhibited by the APC at this time, I believe a robust political contest has, at last, arrived. But this is not the time to cede government to a desperate upstart commanding a vengeful army of flatterers all with a mission of stampeding an illusory enemy.
In conclusion, I have no regrets at all leaving the APC as I have always viewed a political party as a congregation of like-minded persons who become welded together in a close-knit brotherhood in a manner beyond mere friendship. I find the APC now a collection of strange bedfellows of very ambitious people of diverse interests all constantly plotting against each other

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/presidency-why-the-north-should-wait-till-2019/

Cc: ishilove, barcarnista, severus snape,

[size=15pt]''Presidential Election will shock Nigerians''

You will be disappointed my brother

Do you have diary? Please mark it down! .. You think this is 2011 like the PDP rig anyhow?[/size]

teufelein:
Buhari is finished!

The plaintiffs are also contending that Gen Buhari lied on oath and ought to be tried for perjury when he declared in an affidavit submitted to INEC that his secondary school certificate was with the Military Board.
The claim, they argued, was found to be false as the military authorities denied having such document in its possession.
The plaintiffs posited that allegations of forgery and perjury are too weighty to be ignored by the police which has a constitutional duty to investigate all allegations bordering on crime in the interest of justice and that all efforts made to make the police perform its duties have proved futile.

http://leadership.ng/news/419255/buharis-certificate-pro-jonathan-lawyers-drag-igp-to-court

dotcomnamename:
Base on the current situation on ground with the fact that Jonathan's less popular than he was prior to the 2011 elections. To evaluate the strength of Buhari on the APC platform which cuts across the nation.

THE ANALYSIS

Jonathan will win Rivers overwhelmingly. though not a complete sweep as obtained in 2011 due to Amaechi factor.

Jonathan was stoned in Bauchi inspite of the presence of Muazu as the party chairman and you still called it a swing state??

Buhari swept Bauchi in the last election and Jonathan did not get up to 25% vote cast; that was even when there was no anti Jonathan in the North. This time around, Jonathan will not get up to 15% of the vote cast. It's Buhari all the way.

In Kaduna, Buhari will improve on the result of 2011 election due to the insurgency and el Rufai factor

In Kano, Jonathan did not get up to 25% of the vote cast in 2011 with the advantage of a pdp Governor, let alone now, when Buhari has the overwhelming supporter of the APC governor and the emir. It will be a complete sweep by Buhari

Delta's Jonathan all the way.

Niger state is Buhari all the way

The swing states are:

1. Benue;;;;;; ;Disunity in Benue PDP, Buhari might take it

2. Kogi;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;The Yoruba factor(Osinbajo), that's the reason I call it a swing state. However, It might swing to Jonathan

3 Taraba ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Disunity in PDP. Secondly,due to the threats from the Militants of the Niger delta, Danjuma might work for Buhari (Not so likely) Don't forget Jonathan was stoned in Jalingo .. Not so popular as he was prior to 2011

4 Ondo;;;;;;;;;;The Yoruba factor makes it a swing state coupled with the internal fracas within the PDP that led to the defection of some of its members to the APC..... It might swing to Jonathan

5 Ekiti;;;;;; Same as Ondo;;;;;;;Might swing to Jonathan due to Fayose

6 Lagos;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;Too close to call. It might swing to Buhari due to Tinubu, Osinbajo, fashola and yoruba fator....and the votes of the Hausas in lagos. The Yorubas are for Buhari. Besides, APC is also strongly rooted here. As such, it may go for Buhari. But i still consider it a swing because of the Igbo population which's about 20% of the total population of Lagos..

APC(Buhari states< Or Buhari will win in these states>

1 Adamawa ;;;;;;;; The Boko haram factor against Jonathan. The Christians in Adamawa will not vote for Jonathan because he was unable to protect them... Don't forget, virtually all the Chibok girls are Christians.. Jonathan never considered this fact when he handled Boko Haram with kid gloves

2 Kano
3 Kaduna
4 Kebbi
5 Gombe
6 Borno
7 Yobe
8 Katsina
9 Niger
10 Kwara
11 Nasarawa
12 Zamfara
13 Bauchi
14 Jigawa
15 Osun
16 Oyo
17 Ogun
18 Edo
19 Abuja
20 Sokoto

[size=15pt]PDP (Jonathan states Or Jonathan will win in these states[/size]

1 Bayelsa
2 Delta
3 Rivers
4 Cross rivers
5 Akwaibom
6 Anambra
7 Abia
8 Enugu
9 Ebonyi
10 Imo.................Certainly not overwhelming
11 Plateau

[size=20pt]By and large, the pendulum swings to Buhari. Having considered all the permutations, there's no way Jonathan can win the 2015 presidential election if it's conducted on 28th March 2015 with the Card Reader. The momentum behind Buhari is like a hurricane [/size]

chukwudi44:
Good to hear this from you.Since you agree all rigging avenues have been blocked, I don't want to hear complaints of rigging when PDP eventually emerges victorious

PassingShot:
Rigging cannot be completely ruled out of this election but the possibility and magnitude has been drastically reduced with the use of PVC and card reader. Plus the fact that APC is as strong as PDP now will make the task far more difficult for PDP to rig this presidential election as in the past.

sameer1212:
I tell u my brother. Most of people will be shock by next week.

ROCKJ1:
This election would be a tough one... if only Goodluck had worked harder, he won't be finding it so difficult now. Imagine GMB with Kano and Lagos? The 2 most populous states.

kristen12:
Most people that are screaming Buhari, will vote for Jonathan; and people saying Jonathan will vote for Buhari.
Politics is about betrayal

Sobeautiful:
Millions of southerners like you that will vote buhari... I'm sure u are not talking about SE and SS. But incase u are, that's laughable. As for God not being involved in politics, my dear for your info, God rules in all affairs of men. If you like call it politics or any other thing. He enthrones and dethrones. He knows who is performing and who is not. He knows who is corrupt and who is not (especially with the type of 'honest' stalwarts in apc). Have u heared of the woman caught in adultery? U will discover that none of them could stone her because they were all guilty of the same crime. That was God's judgement. So let's do away with all pretence and hypocrisy. It's good some of u have closed your eyes to all GEJ has done. Give a dog a bad name in other to hang it, like those calling him bad are better than him. Do me a favour vote against him like you said. It's a matter of hours the winner will emerge. Let's keep our fingers crossed and may the best man win.

phantonce:
Quote from prof
attahiru jega on march 30.
Having met the requirement of law and polled the highest number of votes,Muhammad buhari of the All progressives congress is hereby declared the winner.

saintandsinnerz:
Are you not tired of the bolded statement? That you are from SS do not change anything! Please drop that line it is getting boring already

AmaechiLinus:
Apc may win online while PDPhave d seat at Aso Rock

otr1:
You better wake up! Disqualifying Buhari will forever remain what it is...a wild dream. It will never happen.
PDP and GEJ aren't even considering that option anymore.

ROCKJ1:
This election would be a tough one... if only Goodluck had worked harder, he won't be finding it so difficult now. Imagine GMB with Kano and Lagos? The 2 most populous states.

kristen12:
Most people that are screaming Buhari, will vote for Jonathan; and people saying Jonathan will vote for Buhari.
Politics is about betrayal

xreal:
My General has it.

Sai Buhari!
Sai One Nigeria!

Peppyluv:
There will be no shock for GEJ from the south east and south south states...Amaechi will be disappointed in Rivers.

dagbokoncept:
All APC warriors on nairaland are busy shouting sai Buhari. The PDP candidate(GEJ) still have an edge over that of the APC (GMB). Buhari should not expect such huge amount of polls in 2015 election unlike the previous elections. Their Underaged voters, foreigners, cows and horses would not be able to participate in Saturday's election. I have been in Maidugiri for 5 years, the southern part of borno are dominated with Christians who will vote massively for Gej on saturday even not for anything, the agony they are living due to Bokoharm insurgency. So also Adamawa, Gombe.Gej till 2019 nothing can stop that!

Unibenstudent:
[color=RED][size=15pt]the gods have spoken
President Mohammed Christopher buhari
Incoming presido
[/size][/color]